Summary Results of the 2016 AAEA Outlook Survey

Transcription

1 Summary Results of the 2016 AAEA Outlook Survey

2 8 7 Would you say the farms you are most familiar with are better off, worse off, or just about the same financially as a year ago? 71% % Better Off Worse Off

3 6 Looking ahead, do you think a year from now that farms you are most familiar with will be better off, worse off, or just about the same as now? 55% 5 3 Better off Worse off

4 9 Turning to the general agricultural economy as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months there will be good times financially or bad times? 85% % Good times Bad times

5 8 7 Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely, U.S. agriculture during the next five years will have widespread good times or widespread bad times? 67% % Good times Bad times

6 8 7 Would you say it is more likely that crop producers will have widespread good times or widespread bad times over the next five years? 71% % Good times Bad times

7 Would you say it is more likely that livestock producers will have widespread good times or widespread bad times over the next five years? 54% 53% 52% 5 48% 46% 47% 44% 42% Good times Bad times

8 8 7 Thinking about large farm investments - like buildings and machinery - generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or bad time to buy such items? 71% % Good time Bad time

9 6 Where do you see farmland prices 12 months from now? 54% 5 33% 3 13% Higher About the Same Lower Source: AAEA Outlook Survey

10 % Where do you see livestock, poultry and milk prices 12 months from now? Higher About the Same Lower 63% 31% 31% 6 9% 9% 48% 42% 21% 61% 18% 41% 43% 16% CHOICE STEERS, 5-AREA DIRECT, WTD. AVERAGE OKC FEEDER STEERS, MED. & LARGE FRAME#1, LB. BARROWS & GILTS, NATIONAL BASE COST BROILERS, 12-CITY AREA ALL MILK, U.S.

11 Where do you see prices for the crops identified below 12 months from now? % Higher About the Same Lower 43% 33% 51% 56% 3 27% 17% 23% 26% 19% 26% Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton

12 Choice steers, 5-area direct, wtd. Average ($/cwt.) Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum OKC Feeder steers, med. & large frame #1, lb.,($/cwt.) Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum Barrows & gilts, national base cost, live equivalent, ($/cwt.) Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum Broilers, 12-city area, (cents/lb.) Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum All milk, U.S. ($/cwt.) Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum

13 High Price KC (HRW) JULY 2017 WHEAT, CME Low Price Settlement Price on 6/30/2017 High Price Mean: $5.36 Low Price Mean: $4.47 Settlement Price Mean: $ $/bu Respondents

14 High Price JULY 2017 CORN, CME Low Price Settlement Price on 6/30/2017 High Price Mean: $4.24 Low Price Mean: $3.32 Settlement Price Mean: $3.77 $/bu Respondents

15 15 14 High Price JULY 2017 SOYBEANS, CME Low Price Settlement Price on 6/30/2017 High Price Mean: $11.38 Low Price Mean: $9.44 Settlement Price Mean: $ $/bu Respondents

16 85 80 High Price ICE JULY 2017 COTTON Low Price Settlement Price on 6/30/ Cents/lb High Price Mean: $71.09 Low Price Mean: $59.94 Settlement Price Mean: $ Respondents

17 Marketing Year Average Crop Prices

18 Share of Respondents 25% 15% 5% On a scale from 1 to 9, where 1 is extremely poor and 9 is extremely good, how would you rate farmland as an investment today? 18% 21% 24% 24% 13% Response

19 Share of respondents 45% 35% 3 25% 15% 5% 4% Iowa High-Grade Farmland Value November 2016 % change from a year earlier 31% 42% Less than - - to -5% -5% to to 5% 5% to 8% Mean: -3.63% 15%

20 Share of Respondents 45% 35% 3 25% 15% 5% 15% Iowa High-Grade Farmland Value November 2017 % change from a year earlier 38% 38% Mean: to -5% -5% to to 5% 5% to 8%

21 AUGUST 2017 LIVE CATTLE, CME High Price Low Price Settlement Price on 6/30/2017 High Price Mean: $ Low Price Mean: $ Settlement Price Mean: $ $/cwt Respondents

22 AUGUST 2017 FEEDER CATTLE, CME High Price Low Price Settlement Price on 6/30/2017 High Price Mean: $ Low Price Mean: $ Settlement Price Mean: $ $/cwt Respondents

23 High Price JULY 2017 LEAN HOGS, CME Low Price Settlement Price on 6/30/2017 High Price Mean: $81.42 Low Price Mean: $65.15 Settlement Price Mean: $ $/cwt Respondents

24 5 45% 35% 3 25% 15% 5% Do you think the U.S. Dollar (Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index- Broad) will strengthen, weaken, or remain the same? 44% 31% Strengthen Remain about the same Weaken 25%