Livestock Risk Protection (LRP)
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1 Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) A Price Risk Management Tool for Livestock Producers Tim Petry Extension Livestock Economist November 14, 2017 FeedlotMgmtClass Nov2017.pptx
2 Price Risk Management Tools Cash forward contract Video and internet auctions CME futures CME options Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Which one or combination fits your marketing plan?
3 Which Is Best? Depends on expected price trend Uptrend: cash market Downtrend: futures cash forward contract video and internet auction?: options or LRP (will always be 2 nd best)
4 Livestock Price and Production Patterns 1. Seasonal 3. Long term 2. Cycle 4. Unexpected Drought Competing Meats
5 ?
6 WASDE U.S. Meat Production and Prices Change from Change from forecast Change from Forecast Change from 2017 Production Billion Pounds Percent Pounds Percent Pounds Percent Pounds Percent Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Dollars/cwt Dollars/cwt Steers Hogs Cents/lb Cents/lb Broilers Turkey Nov 9, 2017
7 Index 1.15 SEASONAL PRICE INDEX FED STEERS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max. Index Avg. Index Min. Index Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 05/13/17
8 $ Per Cwt. 150 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Fut 2018 Fut
9 Why May Cattle Price Peak? C-P-62 11/06/17 M-P-25 11/06/17 C-S-18 11/03/17 M-S-09 10/23/17
10 I-N-16 11/06/17
11 U.S. Ranking in World Production Exports Beef 1 4,3,1 Pork 2 1 Chicken 1 2 Turkey 1 1 Eggs 2 2
12 Major U.S. Meat Export Customers BEEF PORK CHICKEN Japan Mexico Mexico Mexico Japan Canada Korea Canada Cuba Canada China Hong Kong Hong Kong Korea Taiwan China? Australia China Ø
13 Competing Meats H-P-09 10/30/17 P-P-01 11/03/17 S-P-05 10/13/17
14 APR LIVE CATTLE FUTURES BE
15 LRP revenue insurance program that is reinsured and subsidized by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) 2001: pilot program for swine 2003: feeder and fed cattle in selected states 2004: all 3 available in North Dakota Sep. 17, 2007: lamb LRP available in North Dakota and selected states
16 LRP Insures against price declines Similar to put options 13% of premium is subsidized Crop insurance agents do not have to offer List of approved agents at: www3.rma.usda.gov/apps/agents/index.cfm
17 Beginning Farmer 23% premium subsidy 5 yr. or less actively farming Does not include years when under 18 full time military post secondary education
18 LRP Feeder Cattle (beef, dairy, Brahman) Under 600 lbs Steers or heifers lbs Steers or heifers Fed cattle Hogs Lambs
19 Fed Cattle (Steers or Heifers) lb., Select or higher, YG 1 3 Based on 5 area weighted average 35 to 65 percent choice steer price Released each Monday morning Any # up to 2000 head per SCE 4000 maximum per year
20 LM_CT150 St. Joseph, MO Mon Nov 13, 2017 USDA Market News Service 5 AREA WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE DIRECT SLAUGHTER CATTLE Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico; Kansas; Nebraska; Colorado; Iowa/Minnesota feedlots (Includes all transactions regardless of delivery day) For: Week Ending Sunday, 11/12/2017 Confirmed: 94,559 Week Ago: 117,538 Year Ago: 95,979 LIVE FOB BASIS - Beef Breeds Head Weight Price Avg Wtd Avg count Range Range Weight Price STEERS Over 80% Choice 19,966 1,300-1, , % Choice 16,113 1,265-1, , % Choice 5,471 1,220-1, , % Choice - - Total all grades 41,550 1,220-1, , HEIFERS Over 80% Choice 12,935 1,200-1, , % Choice 8,506 1,100-1, , % Choice 3,677 1,100-1, , % Choice - - Total all grades 25,118 1,100-1, ,
21 Insurance Period Policies may be available for the following weekly lengths: 13, 17, 21, 26, 30, 34, 39, 43, 47, 52
22 Actuarials Coverage prices & rates change daily and are posted on the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) web site www3.rma.usda.gov/apps/livestock_reports/main. aspx Coverage levels will range from % of expected price
23 Indemnity Payment based on difference between COVERAGE PRICE (CP) & actual USDA AMS price (AP) CP = $120/cwt AP = $115 $5/cwt payment Producers must submit 04 LRP Claim Form within 60 days of end of contract
24 Steps to LRP 1. Submit eligibility application form with insurance agent 2. Select a SCE (coverage prices and premiums are available after 3 PM (CST) except holidays) 1. Number of head 2. Policy length closest to marketing date 3. Estimated average market weight 4. Choose coverage price 3. Pay premium to agent 4. Agent submits SCE form electronically (hours are between 4 PM and 9 AM (CST), Tues Sat only)
25 Some Packers Offer Futures based Forward Contracts No need for broker, margins, etc. Price is + or futures contract price Other specifications
26 LRP Feeder Cattle Based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) feeder cattle price index which is available at lb, M & L # 1, feeder steers at markets reported by USDA AMS Same basis considerations as futures and options
27 CME Feeder Cattle Index /3/08 6/3/08 9/3/08 12/3/08 3/3/09 6/3/09 9/3/09 12/3/09 3/3/10 6/3/10 9/3/10 12/3/10 3/3/11 6/3/11 9/3/11 12/3/11 3/3/12 6/3/12 9/3/12 12/3/12 3/3/13 6/3/13 9/3/13 12/3/13 3/3/14 6/3/14 9/3/14 12/3/14 3/3/15 6/3/15 9/3/15 12/3/15 3/3/16 6/3/16 9/3/16 12/3/16 3/3/17 6/3/17 9/3/17 22% 10%? 17% 19% 0% 10% 7% 23% 11%
28 CME Index and LRP Beef Steers Beef Heifers Brahman Dairy Under 600 lbs 110% 100% 100% 85% lbs 100% 90% 90% 80%
29 JAN FDR CAT
30 MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Ave
31 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT 2018 Futures 2017 Futures Ave
32 Why? DEC Corn APR LV CAT OK WTR WHT
33 Fall Steer Calf LRP Results Coverage LRP Year Price Premium Actual Price Payment LRP Profit July 15 to Nov 15 (17 wk)
34 SF_LS766 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Nov 17, 2016 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News Stockmans Livestock Exchange Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 11/17/2016 Receipts: 4879 Last Week: 4922 Year Ago: 3841 Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Calves Calves Calves Calves
35 Backgrounding Steer LRP Results Aug 25 to Jan 20 (21 wk) Coverage Actual LRP LRP Year Price Premium Price Payment Profit CME Index Price $159
36 Cattle LRP Timetable MARKET MARKET LRP CONTRACT CLASS DATE Under 600 Nov 15 AUG JUL JUN MAY Over 600 Feb 15 NOV OCT SEP AUG Fed May 15 FEB JAN DEC NOV
37 LRP Advantages Small numbers can be hedged 600, 600, heifers, dairy Premium subsidized 13% No brokerage or margin Receive higher prices in bull market Available in months where no futures/options All coverage prices available daily Disadvantages Not flexible like futures and options Must own the livestock 10% rule for calves and heifers
38 2018: Corn Prices and Beef Exports? Questions!
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DG AGRI DASHBOARD: PIGMEAT Last update:
Chile EU Trade 3 134 3 073 3 096 2 940 1 696 1 590 3 265 World Trade China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Apr) Russia (up to Apr) Chile China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Apr) Russia (up to Apr) Qty