Feeder Cattle Market Update AgriClear, All Rights Reserved.
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1 Feeder Cattle Market Update AgriClear, All Rights Reserved.
2 Let s talk How many of you Have stressed over when to sell your calves especially this past fall? Have hoped to capture more value for your calves especially with the additional costs you have invested in them? Wished you had more marketing options?
3 We ll talk more about how AgriClear can help, but first
4 Agenda Review of the 2015 Canadian Feeder Market Review of the 2015 U.S. Feeder Market When has (historically) been the best time to sell your cattle? Changes in feeder cattle marketing Overview of AgriClear
5 Feeder Market Dynamics - CA
6 Canadian Dollar Decline Source: XE Currency Charts (CAD/USD)
7 CAD / West Texas Intermediate 0.89 r WTI Canadian Dollar Source: CanFax / CME WTI Canadian Dollar
8 Canadian 550 Wt. Feeder Steer CAD $ $ $ $ $ $ Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec Source: CanFax
9 Canadian 550 Wt. Feeder Steer USD $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec Source: CanFax
10 The elastic band stretched too far Source: Canfax, Feb. 2016
11 Fed Cattle Exports to U.S.
12 Feedlot Profit/Loss Margin (Yearling Steer) Source: CanFax
13 Feeder Supply Outlook U.S.
14 U.S. Beef Cow Inventory 2014
15 Heifer Retention & Cow Culling as % of Jan1 U.S. Cow Herd Source: Dr. Durrell Peel, USDA, NASS
16 U.S. Jan 1 Beef Cow Inventory US beef replacement heifers expected to calve 3.9 million hd. Canada s total beef cow inventory 3.8 million hd. Source: Dr. Durrell Peel, USDA, NASS
17 Kansas Feedyards Net Returns ($/hd.) Source: AgManager (as of December, 2015)
18 Jan 1 U.S. Feeder Supply (residual outside feedlots) Source: LMIC, USDA
19 Historical LC Volatility Analysis
20 CME Locked Limit
21 S&P 500 / Live Cattle Futures 0.85 r S&P S&P 500 LC Futures Sources: CME, CBOE, S&P Dow Jones Indices
22 Feeder Cattle Marketing
23 When has (historically) been the best time to sell your cattle?
24 Avg. Weekly Fed Cattle Price Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec Source: CanFax
25 Oct / Dec Live Cattle Futures - Historical October LC December LC Source: Moore Research Report
26 Fed Cattle Long-term Profitability by Feeder Placement Month ( ) Most Profitable Backgrounded Calves Calves Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: David Moss 5/6 Feeder 7/8 Feeder
27 Indexed Feeder Cattle Prices ( ) % % % 95.00% 90.00% 01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec Source: CanFax 5-6 Weight 7-8 Weight 8-9 Weight
28 The feeder market is changing rapidly
29 The Market is Differentiating Traditional Selling Preconditioned / Herd Health Program Channel Marketing 2012 Study $11/cwt. $60/hd. Phenotypical / Grid Fit Certifications / i.e. Verified Beef Production Time
30 Feeder Cattle Sold at Alberta Auction Markets as a % of Total Feeder Supplies 50.00% AB. Auction Feeder Inspections / AB. Feeder Inventory 48.00% 46.00% 44.00% 42.00% 48.43% 45.85% 47.57% 47.65% 43.88% 40.00% 41.04% 38.00% 39.45% 38.37% 36.00% 36.64% 34.00% 34.98% 34.80% 32.00% 30.00% Auction Feeder Inspections / Feeder Inventory Source: Livestock Identification Services / Stats Can
31 So how can you access these channels?
32 What is AgriClear? AgriClear is a secure web-based marketing platform that connects North American Cattle Producers. Producers can now list, transact, and be assured of payment from their computer, smartphone, or tablet. AgriClear lets you market to anyone, anywhere, anytime with confidence Empowering buyers and sellers!
33 Who are we?
34 Introduction to TMX Group Major TMX Shareholders AIMCo La Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec This platform is unique because of its partnership with TMX Group and NGX, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TMX, bringing together a wide array of knowledge and expertise. TMX Group s businesses operate cash and derivative markets, including Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, Montreal Exchange and NGX, provider of electronic trading, central counterparty clearing and data services to the North American natural gas and electricity markets. TMX also provides clearing facilities, data products and other services to the international financial community. Backed by the financial support and clearing expertise of these two entities, you are assured of receiving payment for delivered cattle and receiving cattle as negotiated. CIBC CPP Investment Board Desjardins Fonds de solidarité FTQ Manulife National Bank Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Scotiabank TD
35 Leading regulated exchange and clearinghouse for physical energy commodities across North America Provider of electronic trading, central counterparty clearing and data services to North American natural gas, electricity and crude oil markets Manages over $2B in collateral holdings No clearinghouse defaults since inception in 1994, including major failures, such as Enron and Lehman Brothers Comprehensive Enterprise Risk Management framework in place to manage strategic operational and financial risks
36 We knew enough to know we don t know Industry Advisory Group Seed Stock Commercial Herds Backgrounders Order Buyers Finishers Packers
37 So how does AgriClear work?
38 AgriClear Transactional Process
39 AgriClear Transactional Process cont.
40 Benefits to You Cost Savings Lower cost structure at $6/head/side, with no registration or listing fee(s). Expanded Marketplace Access to a broader network of buyers and sellers. Attribute Based Marketing Ability to capture more value from your genetic and/or management inputs. Reduced Payment Risk Market across North America with financial certainty. 40
41 Let s take a walk through the platform
42 Registration
43 Platform Dashboard
44 Search Results 44
45 Create Listing
46 Additional Listing Details
47 For Sale Listing
48 Counter Offer
49 SOLD!
50 Contract 50
51 Deposit Paid / Free to Ship
52 Received
53 Complete
54 Feedback
55 AgriClear Marketing
56 agriclear.com
57 AgriClear Advertising Campaign
58 Social Media Sites
59 Why AgriClear?
60 Why AgriClear? As an industry, we need a more efficient, secure, and empowering way to buy and sell cattle. Buy and sell on your terms; Take control of your cattle marketing; and Join the over 1,000 producers who make up the AgriClear Community!
61 AGRICLEAR LETS YOU MARKET YOUR CATTLE TO ANYONE, ANYWHERE, ANYTIME WITH CONFIDENCE. 61
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