Risk Management in Today s Cattle Business. J & F Oklahoma Holdings, Inc.

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1 Risk Management in Today s Cattle Business Tom Brink J & F Oklahoma Holdings, Inc.

2 Five Rivers Ranch Cattle Feeding, LLC Formerly owned by ContiGroup & Smithfield Owned since 2008 by JBS USA Twelve feedyards in seven states 950,000 head of feeding capacity Majority sold on grids (formulas) Buy 35,000 feeder cattle and use 2.0 mil bushels of corn per week on average Value-added programs are important, but commodity principles are still foundational to success

3 An 1,800 pound fed steer! Whose fault is it?

4 An 1,800 pound fed steer! Whose fault is it? That dang stocker guy who sold him to us.

5 Why is the topic Risk Management relevant? Market volatility has become extreme, capital usage has increased and profits can evaporate quickly.

6 $140 $ lb Feeder Steer Price (per cwt.) 2011 $120 $ $ $90 $80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec New and higher price ranges bring both opportunity AND added risk.

7 Price Range Past 12 Months Price Range High vs. Low 450-lb. steer calves 37% 750-lb. feeder steers 29% Fed steers 30% Cash corn (Omaha) 100% Oklahoma non-alfalfa hay 23% August feeder cattle futures 29%

8 $1.25 Price Paid for Pounds Added by Backgrounder/Stocker* $1.00 $0.75 $0.50 $0.25 $ *Assumes equal numbers of 500-lb. steer calves purchased from Nov-Feb. Entire group of 850-lb steers sold/priced in August.

9 Successful Risk Management Mindset --Develop a pricing/rm plan then adjust as necessary --Understand that market hindsight is 20/20 --You will not get everything right or capture all available price opportunity --Be realistic with your price expectations --Do not dwell on what might have been --Focus forwardon what you can do now to improve your profit potential --Don t beat yourself up when you miss opportunity or market goes awry --Understand and the RM tools available to you. Use those that fit best. --Measure success in term of OVERALL bottom-line profit

10 RM tools available to stocker producers Forward Contracting Futures (feeder cattle, corn, & live cattle) Options (puts & calls) Government subsidized insurance for feeder cattle (similar to purchasing puts)

11 Ten Tenets of Risk Management

12 The Ten Tenets of RM (1) Understand your risk tolerance (2) Decide what the futures market should do for you---hedge risk or be a profit center

13 What are you trying to accomplish with futures? Identify Your Risk Tolerance & Futures Trading Objective Risk Tolerance Minimal Hedger Active Trader High Less hedging (0% - 50%). Less hedging (0% - 75%). "Let's make money" Leaves hedges in place. Selective trading. Strict Hedger Occasional Trader Low More hedging (75% - 100%). Looking elswhere to reduce "Let's protect equity" Leaves hedges in place. risk. Selective trading. Protect Profit Futures Trading Objective

14 Ten Tenets.continued (3) Start with a competitive breakeven---it is the foundation of successful risk management (4) Know your position---quantify where you are at least once every two weeks

15 Quantify your risk position and market exposure Descrip Hd Market Date Market Weight Market Pounds Feeder Cattle Contracts Priced /Hedged Impact $10/cwt. Market Change Black heifers Mixed steers All Cattle Oct 1 st -15 th , % $22,500 Mid Sept Sep /Oct , % $24, , % $47,109

16 (5) Analyze financial outcomes over a wide range of potential prices Sale Price Mixed Steers Projected Breakeven Total Cattle P/L Hedge P/L* Overall P/L P/L per Head $110 $120 ($54,688) $90,000 $35,313 $57 $115 $120 ($27,344) $75,000 $47,656 $76 $120 $120 $0 $60,000 $60,000 $96 $125 $120 $27,344 $45,000 $72,344 $116 $130 $120 $54,688 $30,000 $84,688 $136 $135 $120 $82,031 $15,000 $97,031 $155 $140 $120 $109,375 $0 $109,375 $175 $145 $120 $136,719 ($15,000) $121,719 $195 *Sold 6 feeder cattle futures at $140/cwt.

17 Ten Tenets.continued (6) Establish a risk management decision making structure (7) Write down a specific hedging/trading plan Follow the plan. Update regularly.

18 Ten Tenets.continued (8) Project the market s likely range: shorten & lengthen your position accordingly (9) Manage your coverage in percentages while evaluating risk vs. reward (10) No one gets the market right 100% the time, so work for a good batting average

19 In today s world of extreme volatility and risk, winning stocker producers must maintain a laser-focus on marketing decisions that drive a positive bottom line.

20 Thanks!

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