Step Up Your Grain Game! Crop Economics for 2018
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1 Step Up Your Grain Game! Crop Economics for Roy Arnott, P.Ag. & Darren Bond, P.Ag. Farm Management Specialists
2 What we already know Doing your cost of production for your own farm is the starting point for profitability. Determining your cost per bushel sold will allow you to build an effective marketing plan. Each year is different! Profitability and risk is dependent on the relationship between yield/price/costs with your financial situation. (Plan for Prosperity)
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8 CWRS ranged from $5.60/bu - $8.65/bu; Average - $6.54/bu Source: Manitoba Agriculture
9 Canola ranged from $9.42/bu - $11.82/bu; Average - $11.00/bu Source: Manitoba Agriculture
10 Soybean ranged from $9.83/bu - $11.72/bu; Average - $10.90/bu Source: Manitoba Agriculture
11 Source: Manitoba Agriculture
12 Source: MASC & Manitoba Agriculture
13 2018? Good, Bad or Ugly? CAUTION: Objects in the Mirror are Closer Than They Appear!
14 Price vs Cost Fertilizer Pricing Price How much money do I need to hand you to buy my fertilizer. Cost What did I have to give up to get this price. Expense vs. Investment: Investment provides a return over what you ve paid, an expense will not. Questions: Is it really cheaper for you to buy in the fall (cost of money, bins etc.) than in the spring? Is it really cheaper to buy from the new dealer 20 miles down the road for $5 per tonne less?
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27 $ per acre 80% insurance coverage per acre / 40 bu per acre = $8.08 covered risk per bushel
28 Breakeven price per bushel $10.20 B/E price per bushel minus $8.08 covered risk per bushel = exposed risk aka. = AFW $ per acre 80% insurance coverage per acre / 40 bu per acre = $8.08 covered risk per bushel
29 Market price per bushel $11.25 Mkt price per bushel minus $10.20 B/E per bushel = $1.05 Reward Breakeven price per bushel $10.20 B/E price per bushel minus $8.08 covered risk per bushel = exposed risk aka. = AFW $ per acre 80% insurance coverage per acre / 40 bu per acre = $8.08 covered risk per bushel
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34 Data Source MASC Harvest Production Reports ( ) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Example Rotation #1 Wheat Hard Red Spring Rotation Economic Analysis Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 102% 101% 102% 101% 102% - Net Profit (Loss) $12.01 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $197
35 Data Source MASC Harvest Production Reports ( ) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Example Rotation #1 Wheat Hard Red Spring Rotation Economic Analysis Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 102% 101% 102% 101% 102% - Net Profit (Loss) $12.01 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $197 Example Rotation #2 Corn Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Soybeans Corn Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 112% 101% 101% 103% 112% - Net Profit (Loss) $42.13 $95.99 $15.77 $53.91 $59.05 $95.99 $363
36 Data Source MASC Harvest Production Reports ( ) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Example Rotation #1 Wheat Hard Red Spring Rotation Economic Analysis Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 102% 101% 102% 101% 102% - Net Profit (Loss) $12.01 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $197 Example Rotation #2 Corn Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Soybeans Corn Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 112% 101% 101% 103% 112% - Net Profit (Loss) $42.13 $95.99 $15.77 $53.91 $59.05 $95.99 $363 Example Rotation #3 Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Oats Soybeans Corn Sunflower Confection Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 102% 101% 100% 103% 119% - Net Profit (Loss) $12.01 $50.99 $15.67 $49.71 $59.05 $ $307
37 Data Source MASC Harvest Production Reports ( ) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Example Rotation #1 Wheat Hard Red Spring Rotation Economic Analysis Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 102% 101% 102% 101% 102% - Net Profit (Loss) $12.01 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $15.77 $50.99 $197 Example Rotation #2 Corn Canola Wheat Hard Red Spring Soybeans Corn Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 112% 101% 101% 103% 112% - Net Profit (Loss) $42.13 $95.99 $15.77 $53.91 $59.05 $95.99 $363 Example Rotation #3 Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Oats Soybeans Corn Sunflower Confection Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 102% 101% 100% 103% 119% - Net Profit (Loss) $12.01 $50.99 $15.67 $49.71 $59.05 $ $307 Example Rotation #4 Soybeans Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Soybeans Wheat Hard Red Spring Canola Rotation Total Marginal Return Rotation Yield Premium 100% 108% 102% 100% 108% 102% - Net Profit (Loss) $49.71 $42.15 $50.99 $49.71 $42.15 $50.99 $286
38 Cash Rent Based on Gross Revenue Average range of cash rent across western Canada is 18 to 22% of gross revenue. But how much is too much???
39 Breakeven Land Rent Calculation Gross Revenue Operating Cost Equipment Cost Labour Cost / Owner withdrawal Storage Cost = Cash for Land Rental
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43 Land Rent Based on Investment Return on Land Value (Landowner check & balance) Land market value $2,800 per acre x Long Term Investment Rate (5yr) 2.75 % + Property taxes $15.00 per acre Total Cash Land Rental $92.00 per acre
44 Analysis specific to your own farm
45 Farm Software & Worksheets (Crops) agriculture/businessandeconomics/financialmanagement/farmsoftware andworksheets.html Farm Machinery Custom & Rental Rate Guide Calculator 2016/17 Crop Land Purchase Values 2017 Crop Land Rental Rate 2017 Crop Share Lease 2017 FertPlan 2018 Grain Bin and Farm Building Rental Cost Planner Grain Drying Cost Calculator Sclerotinia Treatment Decision Tool (Canola and Sunflower versions)
46 Obviously you re telling me Those who produce the most, profit the most. The more accurate your own numbers, the greater your chances are for profitability. It s vital to know the risks and rewards of the different crops. Before seeding, compare crops for profit probability. After seeding, update your actual costs to keep on top of profitability
47 Questions? For more information Visit our website: Follow us on View our videos on YouTube: Contact us: Roy Arnott, P.Ag. Darren Bond, P.Ag. Killarney Ag Office Teulon Ag Office
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