Primary and Alternative Crop Budgets along with Marketing for Presented by: Josh Tjosaas, Northland College FBM
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1 Primary and Alternative Crop Budgets along with Marketing for 2019 Presented by: Josh Tjosaas, Northland College FBM
2 Quick Quiz Which farmer is the most profitable per acre with Spring Wheat at $6.00 per bushel? Farmer A- Cost of Production per bushel at $5.74, yield 75 bu Farmer B- Cost of Production per bushel at $5.70, yield 65 bu Which farm was most profitable? Farmer B has profit +$0.30 per bushel or $19.5 per acre net return Farmer A has profit +$0.26 per bushel or $19.5 per acre net return
3 Quiz #2 Which farmer is the more profitable per bushel, Farmer A that got $4.00 for his corn or Farmer B that got $3.90? What if Farmer A has a cost per bushel of $4.05 and Farmer B has a cost per bushel of $3.75? Farmer A lost $0.05 per bushel while Farmer B made $0.15.
4 Common Marketing Mistakes/Issues 1. Not having a plan. 2. Not following a plan if you have one. 3. Thinking storage will gain you money without a plan/strategy. 4. Not understanding/knowing your cost of production. 5. Not updating your cost of production periodically. 6. Waiting for the highest price to sell. 7. Not being flexible with your plan and pricing levels. 8. Not understanding the kinds of tools available for marketing along with risks/rewards with each tool. 9. Selling only on emotion. 10. Selling when I need cash.
5 Common Marketing Mistakes/Issues 11. Leaving grain in commercial storage indefinitely 12. Using complicated contracts they don t understand 13.Trying to beat the odds 14. Rolling basis contracts forward in a carry market. 15. Not selling enough/ Selling in too small of increments for the volume of commodity raised.
6 Let s Review our data from 2017 Farms for Spring Wheat before we get to the 2019 Projections
7 Wheat,Spring Cost of Production/BEP Input your numbers A. Yield Value per bu Other Crop Income (Hedging Gains, Crop Insurance, Other) B. Gross Return per acre 2017 RankEm ranges A bu $ $0-76 B. $
8 Wheat,Spring Cost of Production/BEP Direct Expenses-Yours Seed Fertilizer Chemicals Crop Insurance Drying Expense Fuel/Oil Repairs Direct Expenses-RankEm Seed: $8-47 Fertilizer: $ Chemicals: $6-56 Crop Insurance: $1-27 Fuel/Oil: $0-35 Repairs: $1-58
9 Wheat,Spring Cost of Production/BEP Direct Expenses-Yours Custom Hire Land Rent/Cost Machinery Leases Operating Interest Miscellaneous C. Total Direct Direct Expenses-RankEm Custom Hire: $0-78 Land Rent/Cost: $ Machinery Leases: $0-37 Operating Interest: $0-18 Miscellaneous: $0-22 C. Total Direct: $
10 Wheat,Spring Cost of Production/BEP Overhead Expenses-Yours Hired Labor Machinery Leases Building Leases Farm Insurance Utilities Overhead Expenses- RankEm Hired Labor: $0-40 Machinery Leases: $0-24 Building Leases: $0-13 Farm Insurance: $0-18 Utilities: $0-8
11 Wheat,Spring Cost of Production/BEP Overhead Expenses-Yours Dues/Prof Fees Interest Mach/Blg/Prin Payments Misc Total Overhead Total D/O Overhead Expenses- RankEm Dues/Prof Fees: $0-14 Interest: $0-19 Mach/Blg/Prin Payments: $0-76 Misc: $0-22 Total Overhead: $ Total D/O: $
12 Wheat,Spring Cost of Production/BEP Yours Net Return per Acre Gov Payments Net Return+GP Labor/Mgmt/FL NR over L/M/FL Total COP RankEm Net Return per Acre: $(211)-281 Gov Payments: $0-46 Net Return+GP: ($210)-299 Labor/Mgmt/FL: $3-74 NR over L/M/FL: ($239)-279 Total COP: $
13
14 Can we make money? Mpls Dec 2019 Wheat = $6.10, historical basis at -$0.30 ($5.80 cash)-fsa Planning at $5.75 November 2019 Soybeans = $9.66, historical basis at -$0.85 ($8.81 cash)- Very unsure at this time. FSA Planning at $8.40 Dec 2019 Corn = $4.04, historical basis at -$0.65 ($3.39 cash) FSA Planning at $3.40 When should we be looking at pricing new crop (timing has changed Market highs Dec 18 Wheat (Sept 28 th, 2017)-$6.51-excludes ND run-up Dec 18 Corn (May 25 th, 2018)-$ Nov 18 Soybeans (Mar 5 th, 2018) $10.66
15 Strategies for Marketing 1. Know your breakeven, keep updating them throughout the year (planning, planting, after spray, mid summer, after harvest!!) 2. Know good basis for your crops and look to lock in basis at those levels. 3. Don t be afraid to marketing current year and next year at the same time if given profitable opportunities. 4. Look for the carry in the market, know your storage abilities and have a plan for grain on storage-not just sell at the highest price possible (Hope Chest vs Cash Maker). 5. Be Flexible-Year to Year, etc.
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