Technical Review of Stocks

Transcription

1 Update 2 October 2017 CIO Wealth Management Research Peter Lee, Chief Technical Analyst, peter.lee@ubs.com, , ext.01 This report provides technical analysis on stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. This list is not a template for the construction of your personal portfolio. You should discuss investment decisions with your Financial Advisor. For more information about this report, see Description and Methodology in the Appendix. We would like to thank Praveen Dodda, an employee of Cognizant Group, for his assistance in preparing this research report. Cognizant staff provides research support services to UBS. ab This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosures begin on page 32. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Table of Contents Ticker Name Page Ticker Name Page AAPL APPLE 4 KO COCA-COLA CO 16 ABBV ABBVIE INC 4 MCD MCDONALD'S CORP 17 ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES 5 MDLZ MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC 17 ACN ACCENTURE 5 MDT MEDTRONIC INC 18 AMGN AMGEN INC 6 MMM 3M CO 18 AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 6 MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 19 BA BOEING 7 MRK MERCK & CO 19 BAC BANK OF AMERICA 7 MSFT MICROSOFT INC 20 BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 8 NKE NIKE INC 20 BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - CLASS B 8 OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 21 CELG CELGENE CORP 9 PEP PEPSICO INC 21 CPB CAMPBELL SOUP CO 9 PFE PFIZER INC 22 CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC 10 PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 22 CVS CVS CAREMARK CORP 10 PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL 23 CVX CHEVRON CORP 11 SBUX STARBUCKS 23 DIS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 11 SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 24 FB FACEBOOK INC 12 T AT&T INC 24 GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 12 TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC 25 GOOGL ALPHABET INC 13 UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE 25 HD HOME DEPOT INC 13 UTX UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 26 HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC 14 V VISA INC-CLASS A 26 IBM INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 14 VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 27 INTC INTEL CORP 15 WFC WELLS FARGO AND CO 27 JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 15 XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 28 JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 16 The last update on these stocks was published on 28 August Going forward, our previously published rating for these stocks should not be relied upon. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

3 Changes since last report Additions Ticker Name Technical Rating Changes Name Ticker Old New AMGEN INC. AMGN Neutral Bullish Deletions Ticker Name UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

4 Apple Inc (AAPL) /- 142/ / / / /205 Sector Technology Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The Feb '17 breakout above still renders technical targets to 179-1, intermediate-term and then to , longer-term. However, on a near-to-medium term basis failure to clear convincingly above 165 hints of a consolidation between (30-wk ma and 23.6% retracement from rally) and 165 (Sep '17 all-time highs). This will help to alleviate an overbought condition allowing for the resumption of primary uptrend. Additional key supports: -142 (Apr/Jun/Jul '17 lows/10-mo ma) and (Feb '17 breakout / 38.2% retracement). AbbVie Inc (ABBV) Jan '13 Jul '13 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul ' / Sector Healthcare Last Sale Price $88.96 Rationale: Recent breakout above the low-to-mid 70s (Aug/Sep '17) confirms a 3-year ascending triangle pattern and a 2-year uptrend channel breakouts. This suggests technical targets to 95-98, intermediate-to-long term. Based on the recent sharp rally an overbought condition is likely to develop over the near-term prompting a near-term consolidation to key initial support at -82 (bottom of the uptrend channel) and below this to secondary support at (10-wk ma and extension of 2015 highs). Medium term support is in the low-70s or the 30-wk ma and Aug/Sep '17 breakout. 30 UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

5 Abbott Laboratories (ABT) / Sector Health Care Last Sale Price $53.64 Rationale: A recent Jun '17 breakout above 46 confirms a large triangle pattern and suggests technical target to the Jul '15 all-time high (51.74, achieved). The breakout above renders upside technical targets to and possibly to the low-to-mid s (extension of the bottom of its 2010/2013 uptrend channel). A moderately overbought condition is likely to develop into this rally. Nonetheless, to trigger a correction, ABT needs to violate a number of key supports including the 10-wk ma (50.) and the support at (prior Jun '17 triangle breakout and the 30-wk ma). Accenture PLC (ACN) / / / Sector Technology Last Sale Price $ Rationale: ACN remains in well-defined uptrend channel dating back to 2008/2009 timeframe and hence our Bullish technical outlook. Three negative outside weeks (i.e., 6/24/16, 3/24/17 and 6/23/17) have recently been negated on a breakout above 126. This breakout renders technical targets to (near-term), (intermediate-term) and then (longer-term). However, repeated failures to surpass coupled with a negative outside day on 9/26/17 warns of a consolidation to key initial support at (10-wk ma) and below this to (30-wk ma). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

6 Amgen Inc. (AMGN) / / / Sector HealthCare Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The 281.5% rally from has led to an overbought condition prompting a 2-plus year consolidation between 130- (key support) and (key resistance). Above 184 confirms a breakout and a technical upgrade to stock. This breakout renders targets to (near-term-achieved), (medium-term), (intermediate-term) and then to (longer-term). However, a rising wedge warns of near-term volatility. Key supports are: (recent Sep '17 breakout) and below this to 177 (30-wk ma) and then to 170 (30-wk ma). Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) 1, 1, , 1, / / /710 1,000-1,017 1,083/1,150-1,1/1,269 Sector C. Discretionary Last Sale Price $956. Rationale: The 2-year uptrend channel between 7 and 1,033 as well as the breakout earlier in the year (late-feb '17) still suggest technical targets to 1,0 (near-term-achieved), 1,150-1,1 (medium-term) and then to 1,269 (longer-term). An overbought condition has developed into the rally as evidenced by a negative outside week on 7/28/17 and the onset of a small 4-mo head/shoulders top pattern. Trading above 1,000-1,017/1,084 negates this top. Trading below confirms a near-term top and warns of downside risks to and then to /7-0. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

7 Boeing (BA) / / / Sector Industrials Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The technical breakouts above (Feb '15 highs) and moves above (top of its 2013 channel) and above 210 (trend line from early-1990s) have achieved many of our technical targets. A flag pattern has quietly developed over the past few months. Recent breakout above the top of its flag (above ) suggests next targets to (near-term), (intermediate), and (long-term). Failure at may lead to a consolidation back to initial support at and below this to The Jul '17 gap up ( ) remains key support. Bank of America Corp (BAC) / / / /41-43 Sector Financials Last Sale Price $25.45 Rationale: After sustaining its Jul '15-Feb '16 setback (-.5%) this financial name has surged above its 2015 highs (18.48) reinforcing a higher-high pattern above its Apr '10 reaction high of This still suggests technical targets to (near-term achieved), (medium-term), 33-35/ (intermediate-term), and then to (longterm). However, the 135% rally from its 2016 low (10.99) warns of an overbought condition. A negative outside month (Mar '17) suggests a consolidation (triangle) between (2017 lows) and (2017 lows). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

8 Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY) / /46-48/ / Sector HealthCare Last Sale Price $63.01 Rationale: A negative outside week (7/29/16) followed by a large gap down (8/5/16) has led to the.34% decline as major supports were broken including the 10/30 week/month ma and pivotal trends (2012/2013 uptrends). A bearish negative outside year (2016) coupled with a negative outside month (Jan '17) and another negative outside week (1/31/17) warn of further volatility. Nonetheless, the ability to find support along the mid-s has led to a 1-year technical base (symmetrical triangle). A breakout above key resistance at 58.5 confirms a recovery to the low-to-mid s. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B stock (BRK.B) / / / Sector Financials Last Sale Price $ Rationale: This leadership financial name continues to trend higher after successfully maintaining above its key support zone near the low-1s (May '17). After recording a new all-time high during Aug '17 a brief consolidation has led to another strong rally into Sep '17. In fact, heading into the end of the month a potential positive outside month (Sep '17) hints of the next sustainable rally toward next resistance at (near-term) and above this to (medium-term). An internal trend line currently rising near offers major intermediate-term resistance on rallies. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

9 Celgene Corp. (CELG) / / / / / Sector HealthCare Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The Biotechnology index (BTK) as well as CELG have been confined to wide trading range over the past two years between the lower end of its range 2,575.58/93-94 and the upper end at 4,315-4,456/-141. A breakout above 127 during Jun '17 and recently above its Jul '15 all-time high (.72) during Sep '17 suggest technical targets to the low-150s (near-term), (medium-term) and then to (longer-term). Key initial supports are: (Sep '17 breakout/10-wk ma) and (Jun '17 breakout, Aug '17 lows, and the 10-mo and the 30-wk ma). Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) / / Sector Cons. Staples Last Sale Price $47.05 Rationale: The 33.72% decline in the past 14 months and the recent % setback in the past 7-months have led to violations of key technical supports including major moving averages (10-wk/30-wk), trend lines and retracements. Failure to maintain above the Sep '17 lows at 45 can lead to a retest of the 2009/2011 uptrend at A deeply oversold condition has developed into this downturn and the ability to maintain above the low-to-mid s can trigger a near-term oversold rally to initial resistance at (10-wk ma) and above this to (prior breakdown/30-wk ma). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

10 Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) / /50 15 Sector Technology Last Sale Price $33.35 Rationale: Jul '16 breakout above still renders technical targets to the mid-30s (medium-term) and then the s (longer-term). However, there is formidable medium-term resistance in the mid-30s coinciding with the Mar/May '17 highs, the extension of the top of its 2011/2012 uptrend channel and the 38.2% retracement from its decline. Neutral relative strength (vs SPX), weak price momentum (MACD), and a negative outside month (May '17) warn of further volatility or the late-2016 /2017 low (neckline support) are key support and is key resistance. CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) / / / Sector Cons. Staples Last Sale Price $81.26 Rationale: This retail healthcare name has suffered technical damages during its 39% decline from May to Nov '16 ( to 69.3). Based on an oversold condition and the ability to maintain above its 50% retracement from its 2008 to 2015 rally (68.42) a technical base has developed over the past year. Key resistance is near and key support is at Since the base is approximately 10-points this would suggest a breakout above 86 renders an upside target to the mid-90s. Violation of warns of a downside risks to (Nov '16 lows) and then the low-to-mid s. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

11 Chevron Corp (CVX) Sector Energy / Last Sale Price $ Rationale: After declining 48.5% from this energy name have found key support at (Aug '15) prompting a sharp rally of 71% during 2015 to A negative outside month on Jan '17 and another one on Mar '17 led to a correction that appears to have found key support along -102 (38.2% retracement from the rally and the 30-mo ma). The Jun '17 to present rally is nearing key resistance along the Jan '17 high (118.99). Failure to breakout here may trigger a consolidation to key initial support at A breakout above 119 extends rally to and The Walt Disney Co (DIS) / / / /-122 Sector Cons. Disc. Last Sale Price $98.05 Rationale: For the past 3-years a large symmetrical triangle has developed between and and hence our Neutral technical outlook. A negative outside month (Aug '17) warns of another retest of the triangle in the mid-90s. Violation here confirms a top and suggests downside to (late-2014/2015/2016 lows). Key initial resistance is at (10-wk/30-mo ma and Aug '17 gap down) and then (30-wk/10-mo ma and Aug '17 highs). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

12 Facebook Inc. (FB) Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul ' / / Sector Technology Last Sale Price $ Rationale: A triangle breakout in Jul '13 above the low-to-mid 30s led to a steeper uptrend channel as defined by and 156. The late-apr '17 breakout above 146 or above the top of its 3-plus year uptrend channel confirms an accelerated channel breakout. This technical breakout renders targets to the low-to-mid 170s (near-term-achieved), (medium) and then (intermediate-term). Key initial supports are: (bottom of the 2-mo channel), (extension of Jul '17 channel breakout and 30-wk ma), and (10-mo ma/may-jul '17 lows). General Electric Co (GE) / /16/ /27-28/ Sector Industrials Last Sale Price $24.24 Rationale: Violation of key support (below ) coinciding with the 8-plus year uptrend as well as a 2-year triangle pattern confirm a top and signals an intermediate-term trend reversal. These breakdowns have led to a sharp decline to or just above its 2014 and early-2015 lows ( ). The ability to find support coupled with an oversold condition has triggered a technical rally that can challenge key resistance in the mid-to-high 20s (2017 downtrend, 30- wk ma and prior breakdown). Below warns of the next decline toward the Aug '15 reaction low (19.37). 18 UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

13 Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) 1, , / / / / / Sector Technology Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The 4-plus year uptrend channel breakout above the top of its channel (now at 975) still renders upside targets to 1,006-1,009 (near-term-achieved), 1,045/1,102 (medium), 1,145 (intermediate) and 1,255 (long-term). On a near-term basis a trading range has developed between (May/Jul/Aug '17 lows) and 1,006-1,009 (Jun and Jul '17 highs). A positive outside week (9/29/17) bodes well for a retest of key initial resistance at 1,006-1,009. Since the recent base is 93-points a breakout above 1,009 hints of upside to 1,102 and below 1,006 warns of downside to 821. Home Depot (HD) / /141/ /130/ Sector C. Discretionary Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The 1-plus year ascending triangle breakout in Feb '17 above still renders technical targets to (initial-achieved), (medium-term), (intermediate) and then to (long-term). Although an overbought condition can develop into the current rally consolidations will likely be contained as long as this leadership name retains above two key supports including the 10-wk/30-wk ma (154/156) and the extension of the prior ascending triangle breakout and the recent Jul '17 lows (144/145). Violation here warns of a deeper correction to UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

14 Honeywell International Inc. (HON) / / / Sector Industrials Last Sale Price $.58 Rationale: The breakouts on Feb '16 (above ), on Feb '17 (above 119-) and on Apr '17 ( ) renders upside targets to (top of its 2009 uptrend channel-achieved), -143 (top of its 2016 channel-achieved), (2009 uptrend channel breakout target), and (recent 2015 channel breakout target). On the downside, a small rising wedge is developing between 137 and 143. Key initial supports are: (10-wk ma and bottom of wedge), (30-wk ma and top of 2009 uptrend channel) and (Feb '17 breakout/2015 uptrend). International Business Machines Corp (IBM) / / / / /161/ /183 Sector Technology Last Sale Price $ Rationale: A gap down (4/19/17), rising wedge breakdown ( ), weekly death cross sell signal (May '17) and a head/shoulders top breakdown (Jul '17) have triggered a 24% correction over the past 7-months. The ability to find support near (61.8% retracement from rally, Jul '16 lows and Mar '16 breakout) can trigger a technical oversold rally to key initial resistance at (Jul '17 breakdown) and above this to (30-wk ma and 38.2% retracement from 2017 decline). Below suggests next decline to (76.4% retracement). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

15 Intel Corp (INTC) 33-34/ /27-28/ / / Sector Technology Last Sale Price $37.83 Rationale: A 12-year head-and-shoulders bottom breakout ( Jun '14) still suggests higher prices to the mid-tohigh s, over time. However, on a near-term basis the rally from 2015 low (24.87) has encountered formidable resistance at coinciding with the Oct '16/Jan '17 highs. A negative outside week (10/14/16), a negative outside month (Oct '16) and a 2-year rising wedge breakdown have led to a high level consolidation between (38.2% retracement from rally and Nov/Dec '16/Jun/Jul '17 lows) and (2016/2017 highs). Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) / / / / / Sector Healthcare Last Sale Price $ Rationale: This healthcare name has led its peers recording new all-time highs. However, the relative strength (vs SPX) and the price momentum trend (MACD) have begun weakened signaling a consolidation. JNJ has entered into a trading range between (Jun '16 breakout/30-wk ma) and (Jun/Jul '17 highs). A move above confirms a breakout and the resumption of the primary uptrend with next technical targets to and then to Violation of renders downside to /-121 (Mar '17 breakout and 2015/2016 uptrends). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

16 JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) 89-92/ / / Sector Financials Last Sale Price $95.38 Rationale: This leading financials name has broken out above the top of its 2012/2013 uptrend channel in the low - s. This technical action has strengthened the intermediate-to-longer term trend outlook. However, a moderately overbought condition in the low-90s and a small head/shoulders top triggered a pullback to The ability to maintain its neckline support (low-s) has triggered a rally to retest its Mar'17 high. A breakout above (Aug'17 high) can extend the rally toward the high-90s and above this to Initial support is (30-wk ma/10-wk ma). Coca Cola Co (KO) /39- / Sector Cons Staples Last Sale Price $44.91 Rationale: The rally from the low-s managed to surpass initial resistance at 44.4 (61.82% retracement from its Apr- Dec '16 decline) but has failed to surge above formidable supply at (Apr '16 high and top of 2013/2016 uptrend). A negative outside month (Sep '17) as well as the potential for a 4-mo head/shoulders top pattern warn of another correction. Key initial support resides along the neckline support ( ) and the 30-wk ma (44.5). Violation here warns of a correction to (head/shoulders top target/61.8% retracement from its rally). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

17 McDonald s Corp (MCD) / / / Sector C. Discretionary Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The breakout above May'16 high at in Apr '17 signals the resumption of its primary uptrend leading to technical targets of (short-term, achieved), (medium-term, achieved) and then to (longterm). A negative outside week (9/15/17) coupled with recent failure to surpass the top of its uptrend channel, warns of a correction to initial support at (30-wk ma and 23.6% retracement from its Oct '16- Sep '17 rally) and below this to 146 coinciding with the 2016 uptrend and then 142 or the 38.2% retracement. Above signals the next rally. Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) 39 +/ Sector Cons. Staples Last Sale Price $.52 Rationale: The primary uptrend from 2009 bottom (13.62) has slowed considerably in the past year as evidenced by deteriorating MACD trend and relative strength (vs SPX). A negative outside month during Jun '17 warns of a retest of crucial support along the high-30s coinciding with the 2009 uptrend (not shown). Violation below 39 +/- 1 confirms breakdown and warns of a major trend reversal. On the upside, there is key initial resistance at (10-wk ma and Aug '17 breakdown). Secondary is also residing near (30-wk ma) and then or the 2015/2017 highs.h- 30s to low-s and the high s. A negative outside month (Aug'17) coupled with a weekly death cross sell (8/11/17) UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

18 Medtronic Inc. (MDT) / /85-86/ /97-99 Sector HealthCare Last Sale Price $77.71 Rationale: The rally from the Jan'17 lows have stalled near coinciding with Jul '16 highs. Deteriorating relative strength trend (vs SPX), weak price momentum (MACD), a large gap down in Aug, negative outside day (9/19/17), negative outside week (9/22/17) and recent violation of key support at 79- warn of a correction to to retest the 2014/2015 uptrend and below this to or the 2016 lows. Key initial resistance is visible at (10-wk/30- wk ma and Aug '17 gap down). Secondary resistance is /2017 highs at is major supply. 3M Co (MMM) /1-182/ Sector Industrials Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The longer-term structural uptrend remains intact; however, the intermediate-term trend for this Industrials name has weakened after a gap down on 7/25/17. After achieving its near-to-medium term targets ( ) during Jun'17, an overbought condition has developed near the top of its uptrend channel ( ). Although higher prices are possible over time, a flat relative strength (vs SPX) and a negative outside week (8/18/2017) warn of a correction to initial support at (Jul '17 low/nov '16 uptrend/30-wk ma) and below this to (top 2015 uptrend channel). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

19 Altria Group Inc. (MO) / Sector Cons Staples Last Sale Price $64.19 Rationale: The rally from the Oct'16 lows has stalled near (top of its 2-plus year uptrend channel) and the recent breakdown below key initial supports along the mid-to-high s (prior breakouts and uptrends) confirms an intermediate- top. This leading consumer staples name continues to underperform on the back of weak relative strength (vs SPX) and poor price momentum. Violation of support at -61 suggests the start of a deeper correction to (38.2% retracement) and then to The ability to find support at -61 can trigger a technical bounce to mid-to-high s. Merck & Co (MRK) / / Sector Healthcare Last Sale Price $64.29 Rationale: This leading healthcare name is very close to emerging from its 2-plus year sideways technical base between the mid-s and the mid-s. A breakout above is technically significant as this renders upside targets to (near-term), (medium term), (intermediate-term) and then (long-term). Failed attempts to clear above may trigger a consolidation back to its key initial support at (Apr/Jul/Aug '17 lows) and below this to or the late-2016 lows. In the meantime, we suspect a trading range is likely between and UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

20 Microsoft Inc. (MSFT) 70-72/ / Sector Technology Last Sale Price $73.87 Rationale: This leading technology name continues to trend higher on the backdrop of strong relative strength (vs SPX) and favorable price momentum. The technical breakout above its Jan/Aug '16 highs at renders upside targets to (near term, achieved) and (medium-term) and (intermediate). The uptrend can continue as long as it retains key initial support at (Nov '16 uptrend and 30-wk ma) and its prior major breakout along ( Oct '16). However, a negative outside week (9/22/17) warns of a near-term consolidation before resumption of uptrend. Nike Inc. Cl B (NKE) / / Sector C. Discretionary Last Sale Price $52.63 Rationale: This consumer discretionary name failed to surge above key resistance at (bottom of its 2012 uptrend channel). A weak relative strength (vs SPX) and a large gap down (8/18/2017) warn of selling pressure. This stock has now fallen to critical support along the Nov '16 low (49.01) and the May/Jun '17 lows at 50.79/ A breakdown here can trigger the next sell off to mid-s and below this to high-30s under strong selling. An oversold condition has developed into the correction and the ability to find support here can lead to a bounce to the mid-to-high 50s. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

21 Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) / / Sector Energy Last Sale Price $64.97 Rationale: This energy name encountered formidable resistance along the 50% retracement (79.78) from its decline prompting the recent 27% correction from (Sep'16 high). However, it has managed to find support along the high-50s or near its 76.4% retracement (57.20) from its rally and the 2016/2017 lows. An oversold condition coupled with a breakout above initial resistance at or the Jul '17 highs and the 30-wk ma hint of a recovery to key resistance at ( % retracement and third downtrend of a large fan pattern). Pepsico Inc. (PEP) / / / / / Sector Cons Staples Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The long-term primary trend from Jan'2009 lows remain intact. A breakout above the downward sloping trend line ( ), coupled with a weekly golden cross buy signal ignited the recent technical rally above 117. After failing to sustain above 117 (extension of its 2016/2017 uptrend) and a subsequent breakdown below (10-wk/30-wk ma) warns of a decline to (Apr/Jul '17 lows, Mar '17 breakout and % retracement from rally). A breakdown here would lead to a sharp downturn to the bottom of its uptrend channel ( ) UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

22 Pfizer Inc. (PFE) 34/ / Sector Healthcare Last Sale Price $35. Rationale: A negative outside week (8/5/16), coupled with a weekly death crossover (10/14/16), led to a 4-month 20% correction to (11/04/16). The subsequent rally from the high-20s has stalled near (Feb'15/May'15 highs), prompting a pullback to low-30s. This technical action led to a higher-low pattern (Nov'16 at and Jun'17 at 31.67). The ability to find support here has triggered an oversold rally which is now approaching key resistance near A breakout here suggests a sustainable recovery to (2004 highs and extension of the up trend). Procter & Gamble Co (PG) / / Sector Cons. Staples Last Sale Price $90.89 Rationale: An uptrend channel between the low-to mids-s and the mid-90s has developed over the past couple of years. The ability to maintain key support above the mid-s coupled with a positive outside month (Jul '17) has triggered a recent rally to its key resistance along (Dec '14 highs). A convincing breakout here renders upside targets to 101 and then 105. However, a negative outside week (9/22/17) and a negative outside month (Sep '17) now warn of the start of a correction to key initial support at (30-wk ma/may/jul '17 lows) and possibly to (2016/2017 uptrend). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

23 Philip Morris International (PM) / / / Sector Cons Staples Last Sale Price $111. Rationale: The Feb'17 breakout (104.2) has achieved two technical targets including its near-term ( ) and medium-term ( ) targets. Although higher prices ( ) are still possible overtime, the 42.4% rally from its Dec'16 lows has created a moderately overbought condition, prompting a pullback to key initial support at (Apr/May/Jul 17 lows). A breakdown here warns of downside risks to its key intermediate-term supports at (Jul '16/Sep '16 highs). On the upside, initial resistance is at and then (Jun '17 highs). Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) / /74-75 Sector C. Discretionary Last Sale Price $54.50 Rationale: The recent rally from the low 50s has stalled near coinciding with Oct'15 highs (64) and the top of its uptrend channel (65). A subsequent negative outside month (Jun '17) led to a sharp 18.9% correction from its Jun'17 high (64.87) to its Aug'17 low (52.6). In addition, a negative outside week (7/28/17), coupled with a weekly death cross sell signal (8/11/17) have pressured the stock to major support at A convincing breakdown here confirms a top and warns of a decline to the low-to-mid s. Key initial resistance is (prior breakdown and 30-wk ma). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

24 Schlumberger Ltd (SLB) 62.5/59.6- / / Technical rating Bearish Sector Energy Last Sale Price $69.16 Rationale: This energy name has struggled to clear formidable supply at (Jul'15 high) or extension of its uptrend channel. An Island reversal (4/17/17), weekly death cross sell (Mar'17), led to its violation of key neckline support (mid-70s), confirming a head/shoulders top pattern. A breakdown here renders downside targets to the mid- s (achieved) and then the low-s (near-term). Positive divergence between price and technical indicator (RSI) coupled with a 1-year downtrend breakout above hints of an oversold technical rally toward the low-to-mid 70s. AT&T Inc. (T) Support Levels /42-43/44/47-48/50-51 Sector Com. Services Last Sale Price $39.04 Rationale: Negative outside weeks (1/6/17, 3/24/17 and 4/28/17) coupled with an Island reversal (6/16/17) led to a 16.8% correction from Jan'17 high (43.03) to its Jul'17 low (35.81). An oversold condition and a successful test of the extension signal a recovery. A positive outside month (Jul '17) and a positive outside week (7/28/17) have triggered a rally to the high-30s (30-wk ma and top of its uptrend channel). The ability to sustain above this key resistance (39.5-) helps to extend the rally to secondary resistance at (2016 downtrend/2016 highs). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

25 Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Sector Technology Last Sale Price $89.65 Rationale: Negative outside month (Jun'17) and negative outside weeks (7/28/17, 8/11/2017) led to breach the rising wedge pattern, prompting a pullback to mid-70s (Nov'16 highs). The ability to find support in the mid-70s has triggered a rally back to Jun'17 highs. The breakout above (Jun'17 highs) reaffirms the primary uptrend, setting the stage for the rally to and then to 99-. Initial support rises to (10-wk ma and 30-wk ma). Secondary support is visible near (Jun'17 /Jul'17 lows). Intermediate-term support remains at (Jul'16 highs). United Parcel Service (UPS) 115/ / Sector Industrials Last Sale Price $ Rationale: A negative outside week (12/16/16), coupled with a gap down on 1/31/2017, has pressured the stock to decline below 11 3(Jan'17 low). However, the ability to find support near -101 (61.82% retracement from its Jan- Dec '16 rally and 2009 uptrend) prevented a deeper setback to An oversold rally from May'17 low (102.12) is now challenging key resistance at.44 (Dec'16 high). A breakout here renders upside targets to 124 and above to An overbought condition coupled with failure to breakout may trigger a consolidation to 115/110. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

26 United Technologies Corp (UTX) / / Sector Industrials Last Sale Price $ Rationale: This Industrials failed to convincingly close above (Feb '15 high). A moderately overbought condition coupled with a negative outside week (Jul '17) led to break of supports at 117/ (10-wk ma and 30-wk ma). Recent ability to find support along the extension of 2016 uptrend and Aug'16 highs (109.8) has triggered an oversold rally that is now challenging initial resistance at A surge above 125 signals the resumption of its uptrend. Failing to breakout coupled with a weekly death cross sell signal (9/15/17) warns of correction to / Visa Inc Cl A (V) 103/99 96/ / Sector Technology Last Sale Price $ Rationale: The well-defined uptrend channel from 2008/2009 remains intact reinforcing still higher prices over time. The relative strength (vs SPX) and MACD indicator are also confirming new highs. Although the rally from the low-90s has achieved a number of technical targets including the (top of tis 2014 uptrend) the recent accelerated channel breakout hints of the next rally. Key initial support is visible along or the Aug/Sep '17 lows and 10-wk ma. Additional secondary support resides near (30-wk ma and Jul '17 breakout) and below this to 93 (Jun/Jul '17 lows). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

27 Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) Source: FactSet, UBS as of 28 September /62.31 Sector Comm. Services Last Sale Price $49.41 Rationale: An island reversal (7/5/16), weekly death cross sell signal (Mar '17), and violation of (Apr'16 low/ May'16 low) led to a 21.9% correction that found support at 42.8 (Jul '17 lows). An oversold condition coupled with a positive outside month (Jul'17) has triggered a technical rally to retest (Apr '17 high). A breakout above (Apr '17 high) as well as a weekly golden cross buy (9/22/17) helps to stabilize the selling pressure and allows for a recovery to (Mar '17/Nov '14 highs) and (Jan '17 highs). Key initial support is (10-wk/30-wk ma). Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) /47-48/ / /73-74 Sector Financials Last Sale Price $54.25 Rationale: The recent rally from the Oct'16 low (43.55) has stalled near or the 2015/2017 highs. On a medium term basis, a moderately overbought condition coupled with a weekly death cross sell signal (5/19/17) has triggered a decline to key initial support at 50-51(Apr/Jun/Aug'17 lows). The ability to find support has prompted a rally back to key initial resistance at 54 (30-wk ma) and above to A breakout above 59- (2017 high) is required for resumption of the uptrend. On the other hand, violation of the low-50s can extend the decline to UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

28 Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) 79/ / / / Technical rating Bearish Sector Energy Last Sale Price $82.19 Rationale: This energy name failed to clear or the 76.4% retracement from its rally. A lower-high pattern, coupled with a negative outside week (1/06/17), led to the breach of its key support near the extension of the up trend. This technical action has weakened the intermediate-trend. On a near-term basis, a moderately oversold condition and the ability to find support in the mid-70s has triggered a rally back to initial resistance at 81 (30- wk ma) and above this to Key resistance is 85.8 (50% retracement from its decline and Jan'15 lows). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

29 Appendix Description and Methodology This report provides technical analysis on a dynamic list of stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. Please note that technical views are highly variable and will change with market conditions. Accordingly, these ratings are only valid as of the publication date. Because CIO WMR equity sector analysts and WMR technical analysts employ different analytical methodologies, technical recommendations are, at times, contradictory to fundamental recommendations for the same security. For the latest company ratings by WMR sector analysts, please refer to the most recent equity sector research reports, located in the Equity Section on the Online Services Research website. For more background on the content of this report, please see Technical Analysis Research Primer, 18 February Appendix Term / Abbreviation Description / Definition % +or- Moving Avg (DMA) The percentage above or below the moving average (see Moving Average) is used to help measure an overbought or oversold condition and is a component of risk management. It is calculated by taking the difference between the group price and its 30-week moving average (see below), and then dividing by the 30-week moving average times. 30-Week Moving Average Adjusted Relative Strength (ARS) Base Beta Blow off stage to a major rally Breakdown Breakout Broadening Top Formation Also known as the 30-week line or 150-day line), this is one of the most popular and respected moving average indicators (see Moving Average) in technical circles. It is calculated by totaling the latest 30 weekly (usually Friday closing) prices and dividing by 30 to arrive at the average. Each week, the most recent week s figure is added to the total, and the price level from 30 weeks ago is subtracted hence the term moving. Please note that a breakout above or breakdown below this line does not, in and of itself, constitute a buy or sell signal. Number gives a 50% weighting to the 1-month relative strength, 30% to the 3-month, and 20% to the 6-month numbers to arrive at a single weighted number. A chart pattern marking a period of accumulation following a downtrend. The larger the base, the greater the upside potential following its completion. A base can take many forms. A measure of volatility of a security as it relates to the market as a whole. Beta is often calculated using regression analysis. A beta is basically the tendency of a security s returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security s price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 implies that the security s price will be more volatile than the market. This is often the last stage of a speculative bubble to a major rally. The blow off phase tends to be steep, but short-lived that often affords little opportunity for investors/traders to exit their positions. As price of a security or an asset advanced to an unsustainable level via a parabolic uptrend this give rise to the bursting of the speculative bubble resulting a quick and dramatic decline as investors/traders try to exit the market/security at the same time. A technical term indicating a downside resolution of a chart pattern. Its significance is determined by the same factors governing a breakout. A technical term indicating an upside resolution of a chart pattern. Breakouts can take many forms, and their degree of importance is determined by the significance of the chart pattern which preceded it. The Broadening top is a rare technical formation that resembles an inverted triangle pattern. It is formed by price swings that are increasingly widening and expanding volume. The most common of these broadening top patterns are the three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The combination of wide price swings and increasing volume often convey an increasingly volatile and emotional market that's basically out of control. This pattern is often associated with market tops rather than market bottoms. The confirmation of the Broadening top occurs when the price violates the second of these two troughs. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

30 Appendix Channel Death Cross Downtrend Line Fan reversal pattern Fibonacci Retracement Level FSR Gap Golden Cross Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Internal Trend Line Linear Regression Band Moving Average (m.a.) MRA A chart pattern comprised of two parallel trend lines, which form a trading band. Channels take the form of uptrend, downtrend and horizontal. The opposite of a golden cross, this is a crossover on the chart resulting from a security s shorterterm moving average falling below its longer-term moving average. Technicians often see this as a bearish technical sign indicating the market has turned negative on the security. A trend line connecting successively lower peaks for a stock (or market). Its technical significance is determined by the same factors governing an uptrend line. The fan formation is a technical pattern that is based on the use of multiple trend lines to denote a major trend reversal. The fan pattern gets its name as it basically resembles a fan. It should have a minimum of three trend lines (uptrends or downtrends). The break out/break down of the third downtrend/uptrend often completes the fan pattern and signals the start of a major trend reversal. The starting point of these trend lines should come from a significant peak or a significant trough. A technical analysis term used to describe potential areas of support (price stops declining) or resistance (price stops rising) on the charts. After a strong rally or decline there is a tendency for a security to retrace a certain portion of its prior move (up or down). Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before continuing in the original direction. These levels are computed by taking the two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and %. Forecast Stock Return is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. An open space in a chart created when a stock (or market) opens either higher than its highest level attained during the prior session (referred to as a gap up or an upside chart gap) or lower than its lowest level reached during the prior day (called a gap down or a downside chart gap). Some gaps are caused by events and should be ignored: ex-dividend gaps, new share issues, and expiration of futures contracts. A crossover on the chart that involves a security s shorter-term moving average (such as the 50-day moving average) crossing above its longer-term moving average (such as the 150-day or 200-day moving average). Technicians often interpret this crossing of two moving averages as a bullish technical sign that suggests the market has turned in favor of the security. This technical formation is one of the best known of the reversal patterns. There are two types of head-and-shoulders patterns that often appear on the charts H/S top and H/S bottom. Both of these patterns often denote the process of a reversal either from a bullish or bearish trend. Headand-shoulders formation often is comprised of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder, and a line drawn across its shoulders defines its neckline. The breaking of the neckline to the upside confirms a head-and-shoulders bottom breakout, which signals the start of a bullish reversal favoring higher prices. The violation of neckline to the downside validates a head-and-shoulders top, reaffirming a bearish reversal of lower prices. A single trend line connecting at least several high and low points for a stock (or market) over time. A common statistical technique often used by investors/traders to better forecast values by utilizing the least squares fit method to plot a trend line. A linear regression band consists of upper and lower bands. These bands are calculated by computing the number of standard deviations above or below of the regression line. This is a technical indicator frequently used in technical analysis to show the average value of a security s price over a set period of time. This tool is designed to smooth out a stocks (or market s) shorter-term fluctuations to provide a better picture of an underlying trend. Moving averages generally are used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages can be helpful as they emphasize the direction of the dominant or prevailing trend and also tend to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, giving the trader or investor a clearer picture of the security in question. Many moving averages exist. Market Return Assumption is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for the equity risk premium and not a forecast). UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October

31 Appendix Neckline Support/Resistance Overbought Oversold Positive/Negative Outside Day This is a trend line that is drawn across the bottoms or tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom or top pattern. When prices break through this neckline support level and continue falling after forming the right shoulder, it confirms a headand-shoulders top formation. Conversely, neckline resistance is a trend line drawn across the tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break above this neckline resistance level and keep on rising, it typically completes the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern. A technical condition in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that the price becomes overvalued or has reached the upper band of its trading range resulting in a potential pullback in price. Opposite of Overbought. A technical condition that occurs when the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that the price becomes undervalued or has reached the lower band of its trading range prompting a potential rally. When one day s range (high and low) exceeds the prior day s range, and the stock (or market) in question closes near its daily peak, this is referred to as a positive outside day. A negative outside day would be recorded if the stock (or index) finished near its daily low after having a wider range than the prior session. The same rule can be applied on a weekly and monthly basis as well. Relative Strength Relative strength is a performance comparison between a sector, group, or stock and the S&P 500 Index over a specified time frame. Our time frame is often a one-, three-, and six-month basis but does vary according to investment orientation. RRD Support Top Triangle Patterns Rating/Return Divergence is automatically appended to the rating when stock price movement has caused the prevailing rating to differ from that which would be assigned according to the rating system and will be removed when there is no longer a divergence, either through market movement or analyst intervention. An area where increased buying interest is likely to develop during a decline. These points, which can take several forms (minor, major, etc.), often provide downside protection for an issue in a primary uptrend, but only temporary relief to an issue in a primary uptrend, during which time many support levels are often broken. A chart pattern marking a period of distribution following an uptrend. The larger the top, the greater the downside potential following its completion. It, too, can take many forms. There are three different types of Triangle patterns Symmetrical, Descending and Ascending. Symmetrical Triangle is considered to be a continuation pattern that often signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending trend and an ascending trend. An Ascending Triangle is a bullish pattern, which is denoted by two trend lines a flat trend line and an ascending uptrend line. A Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern. It is the opposite of the Ascending Triangle in that there is a flat trend line and a downward sloping downtrend line. UBS Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 2 October