WYOMING ECONOMIC INSIGHT AND OUTLOOK. UW Outreach School. April 23, 2008 Laramie, Wyoming

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1 WYOMING ECONOMIC INSIGHT AND OUTLOOK UW Outreach School April 23, 2008 Laramie, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

2 Quick Facts 2006: -job growth: 12,800; 5.1% (1 st in U.S.), mining 17%. -per capita income grew 9.0% (2nd in U.S.) to $40,676. -consumer spending was up 10%. -state revenue outpaced forecast levels. -Inflation outpaced U.S. 4.4% vs. 2.5%. -housing: red hot, 13.5% appreciation, severe shortage. 2007: -population highest ever: 522,830 (2.0%). -job growth rate: 3.9% (2 nd in U.S.), mining sector 2.6%. -income growth rate: 6.0%. -consumer spending: 6.0%. -mineral revenue: declined, but improving in later Inflation outpacing U.S. 6.1% vs. 4.1%. -housing: prices were still strong, inventory up, more choices. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

3 Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

4 Wyoming Population Decennial Population for Wyoming and U.S.: , ,000, , ,000 Wyoming US 500,000, ,000, , ,000, , , , , , ,000 50, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000,000 U.S. Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Wyoming Economic Analysis DIvision Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

5 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,000 Wyoming Decennial Population and Projections History 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% Most likely growth: between 0.5% and 1% Annual increase from 1960 to 2000: 1.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

6 Population 550,000 Wyoming Population and Net Migration: 1970 to , ,000 Population Net Migration 15, ,000 10, ,000 5, , , , ,000-10,000 Net Migration 375,000-15, , ,000 P 2 = P 1 + B D + NM -20,000-25, ,000 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 Net Migration = Inmigration - Outmigration -30,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

7 Percent Change in Resident Population by County: %chge 2006 to 2007 Teton Park Sheridan Big Horn 5.4 Crook Campbell 3.4 Johnson 20.0 Washakie Weston -5.7 Hot Springs % change Sublette Fremont Natrona Converse Niobrara Wyoming = 5.9% 2.0% Lincoln Uinta Sweetwater Carbon Albany Platte Goshen Laramie W N S E Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

8 Net Migration between Wyoming and Selected States 1991 to 2006 Arizona /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 California 2,000 1,500 1, /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Texas /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Colorado 1, ,000 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Idaho /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Utah /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Montana /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Nebraska /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Florida /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

9 Percent of Population by Age Group for U.S. and Wyoming: WY US Baby boomers include people born between 1946 and 1964 (44 to 62 yrs in 2008). High proportion of early boomers in Wyoming Percent Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

10 Median Age by County: 2006 Wyoming = 37.1 U.S. = 36.4 Teton 37.3 Park 42.1 Sheridan Big Horn 41.8 Crook Campbell Washakie Johnson Weston Hot Springs Sublette 38.9 Fremont 38.4 Natrona 36.6 Converse 39.7 Niobrara 45.3 Lincoln 36.0 Uinta 33.6 Sweetwater 35.4 Carbon 41.1 Albany 26.8 Platte Goshen Laramie 36.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

11 Median Age for Population 1 Year and Over in Wyoming: Movers are much younger. Net-In or Net-Out Migration may alternate aging trend. Median Age: no increase from 2003 to % 80.6% 10.6% 2.8% 5.4% 0.6% Total: Same house 1 year ago Moved within same county Moved from different county within the state Moved from different state Moved from abroad Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

12 Population Moved from Other States into Wyoming 8,000 7,000 6,000 5, : 24, : 27,400 Data for Out-Migrants are not available. There is no net in-migration for retired people. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, to to to to to to &over Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

13 Percent of Young Movers (age 25 to 39) to Specified Destination for U.S. : 1995 to 2000 Movers to central cities Movers to suburbs Movers to nonmetro areas 57% single, and college-educated young adults move to central cities. 44% college-educated move to cities. One-third of all movers are young adults: risk-takers and adventurous Single, and college educated Married, and college educated Single, not college educated Married, not college educated Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

14 Percent % of Persons in Labor Force for Wyoming: Male Female to to to to & over Total 16 to to to to to to to 69 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Age Group Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

15 Percent % of Wyoming Population 16 Years and Over in Civilian Labor Force Total 16 to to to & over Age Group Source: U.S. Census Bureau 0.0 Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

16 Number of Workers by Age for Wyoming 70,000 65, ,000 55,000 50,000 Total Emp up 13% 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, &over Age Group Source: QWI, U.S. Census Bureau Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

17 Enrollment WY K-12 School Enrollment and Cost/ADM 114,000 $14, ,000 Enrollment Cost/ADM $13, ,000 $12, ,000 $11,000 98,000 94,000 90,000 86,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 Operating Cost*/ADM 82,000 $6,000 78,000 $5,000 74,000 $4,000 70, * Operating Costs include general fund, special revenue, and enterprise fund. $3,000 Source: Wyoming Department of Education Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

18 Migration Single and young migrants: job opportunities Married and older migrants: quality of life, e.g. family, housing, low crime, schools. Rural aging No big metro/job opportunities Low minority and migrants High proportion of baby-boomers Tight labor force market will continue. Early baby-boomer will start to retire in a few years. Low proportion of Generation X to replace them. Jobs increasing at faster pace than population. Out-of-state workers. Hiring practice Older workforce Flexibility of work schedule Benefits Median Age 40 U.S. Wyoming Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

19 This is not your father s boom Demand driven (long-term) vs. supply driven (short-term). Global demand for energy increasing while supply is dwindling. Role of developing countries. New price threshold higher level. More exploration & development. Wyoming: 3 rd in U.S. natural gas reserves: 24 Tcf; 2 nd in production: 2.1 Tcf, 10% of U.S. 1 st in coal production 440 million tons, 38% of U.S. total. 7 th in oil production 54 million barrels, 3% of U.S. total. Uranium: big potential. Price is 10 times higher. 2 million ton production, only 1/6 th of 1980 level. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

20 Wyoming Employment (in thousands) Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employment for Wyoming and U.S. (Number of jobs) 180,000 Wyoming US 170, , % in 2006 (highest since 1981) 150, , , , , ,000 90,000 U.S. Employment (in thousands) , , '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 60,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

21 Percent 10.0 Wyoming and U.S.Unemployment Rates: Annual Average U.S Wyoming Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

22 Wyoming Job Growth Outlook: 2006: Best Gains Since 1981 Annual Percent Growth In Non-Farm Employment Forecast Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

23 Wyoming Job Growth Outlook: 10,800 New Jobs in 2007 Mining Other 13,400 10,800 6,200 6,100 5,400 8,500 7,200 2,500 2, Forecast Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

24 Why is mineral production important to Wyoming? Mineral income currently makes up close to twothirds of State s total revenue. Mineral income is obtained from: Severance taxes ($864 million in FY07). Federal mineral royalties ($757 million in FY07). Mineral property taxes ($950 million in FY07). Coal lease bonuses ($170 million in FY07). Sales and use taxes ($179 million in FY07). Household tax burden ranks among the lowest in the nation. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

25 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 Mineral Severance Taxes: FY FY2007 (in millions of current dollars) Other Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil Natural Gas Crude oil $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Source: Wyoming CREG Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

26 $24,000 Total Locally and State Assessed Valuation (in millions of current dollars) $22,000 $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 Coal Natural Gas Oil Other Percent of Total Mineral Valuation: 1981 = 72% 1998 = 49% 2005 = 71% $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ * Other includes other minerals, real and personal property Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

27 $3,600 Appropriations from General Fund and Other Reserve Accounts (in millions of current dollars) $3,600 $3,200 $2,800 General Gov't Transportation Natural Resources Econ. Development Public Safety Health & Family Service Higher Education K12 Education $3,200 $2,800 $2,400 $2,400 $2,000 $2,000 $1,600 $1,600 $1,200 $1,200 $800 $800 $400 $400 $0 FY93-94 FY95-96 FY97-98 FY99-00 FY01-02 FY03-04 FY05-06 FY07-08 $0 Source: LSO (through 2007 Budget Session) Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

28 Natural Gas Spot Prices ($/mcf): May Apr 2008 $15 $15 $14 Differential Opal Hub Henry Hub $14 $13 $13 $12 $12 $11 $10 The price was consistently around $2.00 from 1986 to 1999 $11 $10 $9 $9 $8 $8 $7 $7 $6 $6 $5 $5 $4 $4 $3 $3 $2 $2 $1 $1 $0 May- 00 Nov- 00 May- 01 Nov- 01 May- 02 Nov- 02 May- 03 Nov- 03 May- 04 Nov- 04 May- 05 Nov- 05 May- 06 Nov- 06 May- 07 Nov- 07 $0 Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

29 Employment by Industry for Wyoming and U.S.: 2006 (Includes: full and part-time wage and salary jobs, and proprietors employment) U.S. Wyoming All Other 20.3% Agriculture 2.2% Mining 0.5% Construction 6.5% Manufactu. 8.7% All Other 18.3% Agriculture 3.9% Mining 7.8% Construction 9.0% Government 13.5% Leisure & Hospitality 8.7% Educational and Health Services 12.0% Wholesale & Retail Trade 14.4% Professional & Business Services 13.6% Government 18.2% Leisure & Hospitality 10.4% Educational and Health Services 7.9% Professional & Business Services 7.9% Manufactu. 3.1% Wholesale & Retail Trade 13.4% Wyoming = 376,222 U.S. = 178,342,900 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Mining - 1st Construction 3rd Leisure & Hospitality - 4th Government - 4th Manufacturing 49 th Prof. & Bus. Svcs. 48 th Educ. & Health Svcs. 49th Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

30 Gross Domestic Product for Wyoming and U.S.: 2006 by Industry U.S. Wyoming All Other 32.4% Agriculture 0.9% Mining 1.9% Construction 4.9% Manufactur. 12.8% All Other 23.9% Agriculture 1.5% Mining 30.6% Government 11.7% Leisure & Hospitality 3.6% Educational and Health Services 7.9% Wholesale & Retail Trade 12.6% Professional & Business Services 11.9% Government 12.9% Leisure & Hospitality 3.9% Educational and Health Services 4.3% Professional & Business Services 4.4% Wholesale & Retail Trade 9.2% Construction 6.0% Manufactur. 5.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: GDP is often referred to as its "value added", is equal to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported). Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

31 Average Wage, 2006 Portfolio of Wyoming Industry Clusters by Job Growth Rate and Wage Rate $80,000 $70,000 Utilities 2,316 $60,000 Mining 26,556 $50,000 Manufacturing 10,194 Wholesale trade 8,312 Transp. and warehousing 11,246 $40,000 $30,000 Agriculture 4,401 Government 68,520 Information 4,189 Prof, busi, & finan serv. 29,172 Edu. and health services 23,381 Construction 24,791 WY Average Annual Wage, $36,333 $20,000 Retail trade 31,817 Other services 12,195 Leisure and hospitality 33,112 $10, Percent Change in Employment: 2003 to 2006 Note: Numeral below the name of industry is total employment in 2006 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

32 Per Capita Personal Income for US and Wyoming $65,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 U.S. Wyoming $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25, : 6 th $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5, : 35 th $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $ Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

33 4,500 Residential Building Permits Authorized in Wyoming 4,000 3,500 Multi-Family Units Single-Family Units 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

34 Annual Percent Change of Single Family House Price U.S. Wyoming 2007: 2 nd Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

35 Quarterly Percent Change in House Prices 1 st 1 st 33 rd 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Wyoming U.S. Other Indicators for 2007: Foreclosure Rate: WY was the one of the lowest in the nation (U.S. 2%). Existing Home Sales: U.S. = -13% (worst in 25 yrs); WY = -5%. Single Family Building Permits: U.S. = -25%; WY = -8%. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

36 Housing Affordability: 2006 (Ratio of Median Value of Housing Unit to Median Household Income) North Dakota Texas South Dakota Nebraska Wyoming Utah Idaho Montana Colorado Arizona Nevada California U.S. = 3.8% WY was the 19 th most affordable in the U.S., 1 st in the West. WY Median Value: $150,000 Teton, Sublette, Lincoln, Sheridan, Campbell, Sweetwater >= $200, Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

37 Wyoming Employment Farm Employment for Wyoming and U.S. (Number of full and part-time jobs) 15,000 14,500 WY TOTAL JOBS: up 138% Wyoming US 4,150,000 4,000,000 14,000 3,850,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12, % -27.6% 3,700,000 3,550,000 3,400,000 3,250,000 U.S. Employment 11,500 3,100,000 11,000 2,950,000 10, ,800,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

38 Travel and Tourism Industry It is NOT an industrial sector in the standard classification NAICS. Data is limited and derived. Included in the following industries: -Leisure & Hospitality (Lodging, food services, art and recreation, i.e. sports, museum, and gambling) -Retail trade services inc. gasoline station -Travel arrangement services -Air transportation services -Auto rental and leasing -Urban transit, taxi, scenic transp., water transp, etc. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

39 Travel and Tourism Industry Direct Employment - 25,000 (6%) Earnings - $420 million (3%) Visitor Spending over $1 billion Contribution to GDP 2.5% Low skilled, low wage, seasonal Sales Tax Collections $60 million (7%) Lodging Tax Collections - $6 million Teton County: -Emp 4,500 (18%); Sales Tax $26 million (47%). Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

40 millions of dollars Long Term: Strong lodging sales growth in recent years Small effect from 9/11 Stagnant or slow growth in visitation $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 Lodging Sales in Teton County Demographic change - Weakened U.S. dollars + $80 $60 $40 High gasoline prices - Baby-boomers + $20 FY 1998 FY 2000 FY 2002 FY 2004 FY 2006 Source: Wyoming Department of Revenue State Revenue + Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

41 Wyoming Comparative Cost of Living Index - 4Q07 (with surveyed communities in each county) 129 Jackson Cody 94 Powell Thermopolis 88 Lovell Greybull Worland Sheridan Buffalo Gillette Sundance Newcastle 91 Survey Places Index Afton Pinedale 119 Lander 94 Riverton 101 Casper 94 Douglas 88 Lusk Statewide = 100 N W E Evanston Kemmerer 93 Green River Rock Springs 109 Rawlins Laramie 85 Wheatland Torrington Cheyenne S 0 50 Miles Note: Starting with the 2Q03 WCLI report, North Lincoln County (Afton) is included in the comparative index, and is tabulated seperately from South Lincoln County (Kemmerer). Source: Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

42 Outlook Energy price and production is the key component. Above average growth in near-term. Population to average 1% per year. Employment to average 2% per year (energy sector will drive job increase; benefit other industries such as construction, trade, transportation). Low unemployment rate and high-paying energy-related jobs will support strong income growth. Budget increase spurs construction projects, supporting income and job gains. Incentives help to attract quality companies/businesses into the state. Inflation will continue to outpace U.S. Low business costs and favorable tax structure to continue. Housing affordability is still relatively high. Low diversification - high exposure to downturn in energy market, will hurt employment and income growth. Tight labor market will continue to temper economic growth. Value added industries are important to long-term growth. Small (in population) and rural nature of the state, less opportunities for skilled and educated young people. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

43 THANK YOU! Economic Analysis Division EAD Wyoming s s Source for Business and Economic Information ead@ ad@state.wy.us (307) Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

44 Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 16, 2018 Contact: Amy Bittner, Senior Economist. Wyoming Cost of Living Index for the Second Quarter of 2018

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 16, 2018 Contact: Amy Bittner, Senior Economist Wyoming Cost of Living Index for the Second Quarter of 2018 CHEYENNE The State of Wyoming, Economic Analysis Division reported