Enrollment Projections

Transcription

1 Enrollment Projections 1

2 context E x t e n s i v e demographic s h i f t s V i s i b l y transforming San Francisco 1 7 4, more people will need 72,530 new housing units by 2030 Community Suggestions Mission Bay, Candlestick, Parkmerced, Shipyard V i s i o n transforming public schools Implications for portfolio of public schools in San Francisco 2

3 ,293 57,077 E n r o l l m e n t t o d e c r e a s i n g Since 2008 increasing Future enrollment? 3

4 Projections 1 are exercises showing possible future enrollment 2 make assumptions About Future trends 3 can vary significantly depending on assumptions 4

5 approach Collaborative Data Driven O n g o i n g SF Planning Department Office of Community Investment & Infrastructure Mayor s Office of Housing & Community Development Lapkoff Gobalet Demographic Research Inc. 2002, 2010, 2013 forecasts Enrollment from housing growth close to forecasts - actual enrollment close to median Plan to continue evaluating student yields as details about new housing become available 5

6 Method EXISTING HOUSING Birth to kindergarten ratio Grade progressions NEW HOUSING Student yields E n r o l l m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s Students in existing housing + Students from new housing 6

7 Key findings 1. Enrollment will continue to grow Large elementary cohorts will move into middle and high school 2. Uncertainty about magnitude of growth extent depends on assumptions about student yields 3. Bayview, SOUTH OF Market, & Treasure Island WILL HAVE largest cohorts of new students Bayview has largest cohort of current students 11% of all K12 students (over 6,000 students) live in the Bayview - and 31% of all new students from new housing will live in the Bayview 7

8 Enrollment Projections EXISTING HOUSING 8

9 Existing housing E n r o l l m e n t w i l l c o n t i n u e t o g r o w 3,000 to 6,000 more K12 students by 2023 from existing housing 64,000 63,000 62,000 61,000 60,000 59,000 58,000 57,000 56,000 55,000 54,000 53,000 60,393 59,666 58,996 61,221 62,838 61,981 62,376 58,082 59,338 59,785 59,916 57,077 57,455 58,853 58,358 57,877 57,077 57,241 56,880 60, Lower End Higher End 9

10 Elementary existing housing Number of Students 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Elementary School Enrollment Forecast, Excluding Housing Growth Actual Forecast median 67% confidence interval 90% confidence interval Approx. 673 more students by 2023 from existing housing Year 10

11 Middle existing housing Number of Students 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Middle School Enrollment Forecast, Excluding Housing Growth 1987 Actual Forecast median % confidence interval 90% confidence interval Year Approx. 1,244 more students by 2023 from existing housing 11

12 High Existing housing Number of Students 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 High School Enrollment Forecast, Excluding Housing Growth Actual Forecast median 67% confidence interval 90% confidence interval Approx. 1,095more students by 2023 from existing housing Year 12

13 Enrollment Projections NEW HOUSING 13

14 Student yields AVERAGE NUMBER OF STUDENTS PER HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS CAN VARY S I G N I F I C A N T L Y DEPENDING ON ASSUMPTIONS More than 70,000 new housing units planned If student yield were.10, forecast 7,000 new K12 students If student yield were.20, forecast 14,000 new K12 students Important to base assumptions about student yields on careful study of all available information about current and future housing 14

15 New housing ,432 to 12,082 new students (K12) All Units Affordable Units New student in Low Yield Simula7on Net Students in Avg Yield Simula7on Treasure Island and Yerba Buena Is 7,663 1,663 1,120 2,461 Hunters Point Shipyard, 1&2 5,717 1, ,577 Candles7ck 6,225 1, ,699 Park Merced 5, Mission Bay 2,860 1, Transbay 4,919 4, Central Corridor 11,715 2, Eastern Neighborhoods 9,000 1, Market and Octavia 5, Visitacion Valley/Schlage Lock 1, Execu7ve Park 1, Western SOMA 2, Transit Center District Balboa Park Sta7on 1, Rincon Hill 2, M Project Pier 70 Area 1, Mission Rock Other off- site BMR HOPE SF Projects Hunters View Sunnydale Potrero Total 73,904 19,617 7,432 12,082 Low yield simulation.01 Market rate yield.25 BMR inclusionary.50 Stand-alone affordable Avg yield simulation.20 Market rate yield in larger developments and somewhat higher yields in subsidized units 15

16 Growth over time 7,432 to 12,082 new students by 2040 Number of Students Projected 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Projected Enrollments from Major New Housing Depends on Student Yields Yield in some market rate housing Negligible yield in market housing Year Forecasts illustrative until more information available. Uncertainty about yields because characteristics of new housing have to be decided. 16

17 Major developments Treasure Is & YB 1,120 to 2,461 new students 20% of projected K12 enrollment growth from new housing Hunters Point Shipyard 886 to 1,577 13% of projected K12 enrollment growth from new housing Candlestick Point 937 to 1,699 14% of projected K12 enrollment growth from new housing Mission Bay 537 to 922 8% of projected K12 enrollment growth from new housing Parkmerced 250 to 878 7% of projected K12 enrollment growth from new housing 17

18 need more info To refine assumptions about student yields How market rate units will be distributed across housing categories (e.g., tower, condo midrise, townhouse, etc.). Student yields vary a lot in different types of market-rate units. Number of senior units in each development. Want to use number of family units as denominator when computing student yields rather than total unit count. Bedroom mix of developments, especially new developments that contain no children. 18

19 Growth by nhood Neighborhood Bayview New Developments HP Shipyard Phase 1 and 2, Hunters Vies, Candlestick Point, Executive Park, 2040 Low Yield 2040 Avg Yield Current K12 2,125 3,742 6,148 Financial D Transbay Zone 1 and Zone Lakeshore Parkmerced Mission Market & Octavia ,241 Outer Mission Balboa Park Station ,815 Potrero Pier 70 Area, Potrero HOPE SF South of Market TI/YBuena Vis Valley Mission Bay, Central Corridor, Eastern Neighborhoods, 5 M Project, Western SOMA, Mission Rock, Rincon Hill Treasure Island and Yurba Buena Island Vis Valley/Schlag Lock, Sunnydale HOPE SF 1,737 2,122 1,353 1,120 2, ,428 Off Site BMR n/a Total projected enrollments from new housing 7,440 12,082 19

20 Residential density And projected growth from new housing SFUSD K-12 Enrollments by Planning Neighborhood Actual 2014 Enrollments, Additional students from new housing under Low Yield scenario, Additional students from new housing under Average Yield scenario Treasure Island/YBI North Beach Marina Russian Hill Presidio May Layers Chinatown Nob Hill Pacific Heights Planning Neighborhood Streets dl Financial District Presidio Heights Seacliff Western Addition Inner Richmond K-12 Enrollments by Planning Neighborhood Downtown/ Civic Ctr 5,000 Outer Richmond 2,529 South of Market Golden Gate Park 58 Actual 2014 Enrollments Addt'l students from new housing under Low Yield Addt'l students from new housing under Average Yield Haight Ashbury Castro/Upper Market Inner Sunset 0 Potrero Hill Mission.5 1 Largest Growth 1. Bayview 2. S of Market 3. Treasure Is. 4. Financial D. 5. Lakeshore 1.5 Miles Outer Sunset Twin Peaks Noe Valley Diamond Heights Parkside Bernal Heights Glen Park West of Twin Peaks Outer Mission Bayview Excelsior Lakeshore Ocean View Visitacion Valley Crocker Amazon Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research, Inc. 9/22/

21 Enrollment Projections EXISTING HOUSING + NEW HOUSING 21

22 Projections 2023 Existing + New housing 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 12,061 7,091 Varies based on a s s u m p t i o n s 2, Existing Housing (low) + New Housing (low yield) 2. Existing Housing (low) + New Housing (avg yield) 3. Existing Housing (median) + New Housing (low yield) 4. Existing Housing (median) + New Housing (avg yield) 22

23 Projections 2023 Existing + New housing Growth from New Housing Growth from Existing Housing 2014 Enrollment 6,300 4,099 2,992 5,761 57,077 57,077 K12 enrollment 64,000 to 69,000 students by Low Forecast 2023 Higher Forecast 23

24 Key findings 1. Enrollment will continue to grow Large elementary cohorts will move into middle and high school 2. Uncertainty about magnitude of growth extent depends on assumptions about student yields 3. Bayview, SOUTH OF Market, & Treasure Island WILL HAVE largest cohorts of new students Bayview has largest cohort of current students 11% of all K12 students (over 6,000 students) live in the Bayview - and 31% of all new students from new housing will live in the Bayview 24

25 Next steps 1. Complete drafting detailed report to share with the Board of Education and public 2. Continue to study student yields and modify projections based on findings 3. Share information with key stakeholders (all staff, City partners, community) 4. Use information to inform policy decisions 25