Liberty Hill ISD. District Demographics Update 2Q 2018

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Douglas Wiggins
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1 Liberty Hill ISD District Demographics Update 2Q 2018

2 LHISD DEMOGRAPHICS PROFILE: 2018 UPDATE Liberty Hill ISD s overall population in 2018 is estimated to be 17,994 (13.0% year-over-year increase) In 2018, the district is estimated to have 6,169 total households, an increase of 742 households over the past year (+13.7%) Since 2010, the district s overall population and number of households have been increasing at an average of 8.5% per year Over the next five years, the average annual rate of population and HH growth in the district is projected to be near 10.0% per year Source: ESRI & U.S. Census Bureau School District Strategies 2

LIBERTY HILL ISD QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION Start = foundation started Closing = occupied home Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q 14 40 61

3 LIBERTY HILL ISD QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION Start = foundation started Closing = occupied home Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Total In 2Q18, new homebuilders produced 265 starts and 186 closings in LHISD Record quarter for new home starts and 2 nd most closings in a single quarter 3

2% (+226 units) Start = foundation started Closing = occupied home District sees record new

4 LIBERTY HILL ISD ANNUAL NEW HOME ACTIVITY Annual Activity 760 Starts: +6.7% (+48 units) 721 Closings: +48.2% (+226 units) Start = foundation started Closing = occupied home District sees record new home building from 3Q17-2Q18; 760 starts & 721 closings Annual closings are up 48.2% year-over-year Developers delivered a record 1,482 new residential lots over the past 4 quarters 4

GREATER AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS BY NEW HOME CLOSINGS Rank District Total Starts 3Q17-2Q18 Total Closings 3Q17-2Q18 1 Leander 2,250 2,471 2 Round Rock 1,532 1,651 3 Pflugerville 1,577 1,581 4

5 GREATER AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS BY NEW HOME CLOSINGS Rank District Total Starts 3Q17-2Q18 Total Closings 3Q17-2Q18 1 Leander 2,250 2,471 2 Round Rock 1,532 1,651 3 Pflugerville 1,577 1,581 4 Austin 1,379 1,573 5 Hays Consolidated 1,524 1,373 6 Manor 1,213 1,162 7 Georgetown 1,330 1,150 8 Hutto Del Valle 1, Lake Travis Liberty Hill Dripping Springs Jarrell San Marcos Con Bastrop Taylor Eanes Lago Vista Elgin Wimberley From 3Q17-2Q18, Liberty Hill ISD s new home market produced the 10 th most annual new home starts and the 11th most annual closings among all Greater Austin school districts 5

6 LIBERTY HILL ISD TOP PRODUCING NEW HOME SUBDIVISIONS (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Starts 2Q17-1Q18 Annual Closings 2Q17-1Q18 Occupied Homes VDL Future Lots Elementary Zone 1 Rancho Sienna Rancho Sienna 2 Santa Rita Ranch South Rancho Sienna 3 Morningstar Rancho Sienna 4 Oaks at San Gabriel Rancho Sienna 5 Stonewall Ranch Burden 6 ClearWater Ranch Burden 7 Cimarron Hills Rancho Sienna 8 Liberty Parke Burden 9 Rio Ancho Liberty Hill 10 Ridge at Cross Creek Rancho Sienna 11 Hidden Creek Estates Burden 12 Sunny Slope Rancho Sienna 6

7 LIBERTY HILL ISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION BY ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE 7

$300K (1Q17 = 61%) District s median new home price now $305,497

8 LIBERTY HILL ISD NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY PRICE RANGE 61% of new home closings are located in subdivisions that have base pricing over $300K (1Q17 = 61%) District s median new home price now $305,497 (-5.3% Y-o-Y) Greater Austin s median new home now $289,076 (no change) 8

9 LIBERTY HILL ISD LOT INVENTORY New/Updated in 2Q new lots delivered in 2Q18 Valley Vista Ph. 1 Morningstar Ph. 2-2A, 2cp Oaks at San Gabriel Ph. 10 Rancho Sienna Ph. 17 2,148 fully developed vacant lots remaining as of June 30, months supply 994 lots are currently under development Another 9,790 future lots are planned (currently not developed) Subdivision Under Development Section(s) Total Lots Elementary Zone City Sector Slate Creek 1 15 Rancho Sienna Georgetown Valley Vista cp 80 Rancho Sienna Leander Valley Vista East 1cp 58 Rancho Sienna Leander Whitt Ranch 1 62 Liberty Hill Leander Morningstar 2cp 20 Rancho Sienna Liberty Hill Stonewall Ranch 7 99 Burden Liberty Hill Estates at Northgate Santa Rita Ranch South 1 91 Burden Williamson Co. Uninc. 7A, 7Bcp 111 Rancho Sienna Williamson Co. Uninc. Terra Del Sol Cp 203 Rancho Sienna Williamson Co. Uninc. Rancho Sienna 13cp, 18A, Rancho Sienna Williamson Co. Uninc. 9

LHISD NEW HOME OCCUPANCY FORECAST (Moderate Scenario) Forecast reflects known projects as of 2Q18; annual closings may not taper off in 2022/23 if more development occurs Annual Period = 4Q-3Q

10 LHISD NEW HOME OCCUPANCY FORECAST (Moderate Scenario) Forecast reflects known projects as of 2Q18; annual closings may not taper off in 2022/23 if more development occurs Annual Period = 4Q-3Q Moderate new home forecast for 4Q17-3Q18 remains on track LHISD is projected to average 789 new homes per year over the next 3 years The district could potentially see more than 4,100 new homes built over the next 5 years 10

11 LHISD RESIDENTIAL STUDENT YIELDS Single-family (SF) homes in the district are currently yielding an average of 0.72 students per home YEAR SF YIELD PK-4 th 5 th -6 th 7 th -8 th 9 th -12th Yellow = Active New Home Subdivision *Results based on Fall 2017 geo-coding and September 30, 2017 occupied homes count Subdivision Name Occupied Homes Total Students Students PHH Ancient Oaks Boulderwood Park Cierra Springs Cierra Vista Cimarron Hills ClearWater Ranch Drakes Crossing Estates at Stonewall Ranch Gabriels Overlook High River Ranch Liberty Place Morningstar Oaks at San Gabriel Quarry Lake Estates Rancho Santa Fe Rancho Sienna Santa Rita Ranch South Silver Creek Ranch Stable Oaks Stage Coach Hill Stonewall Ranch Sundance Estates Sunrise Acres

DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST: (FALL 2018- FALL 2027) Projected Net Growth Low Scenario Moderate Scenario High

12 DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST: (FALL FALL 2027) Projected Net Growth Low Scenario Moderate Scenario High Scenario 3-Year 1,029 1,394 1,677 5-Year 1,749 2,423 2, Year 3,524 4,335 4,965 5-Yr. Annual Avg. 7.5% 9.9% 11.5% 12

13 CAMPUS LEVEL PROJECTIONS (MODERATE) Liberty Hill ISD P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P Burden Elementary Elementary Capacity = 800 Total Enrollment PK Capacity Utilization 82% 86% 89% 93% 96% 99% 105% 110% 115% 120% 124% Space Remaining Liberty Hill Elementary Elementary Capacity = 500 Total Enrollment PK Capacity Utilization 74% 75% 77% 80% 83% 86% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Space Remaining Rancho Sienna Elementary Elementary Capacity = 800 Total Enrollment PK ,026 1,178 1,323 1,440 1,552 1,648 1,727 1,794 Capacity Utilization 77% 93% 110% 128% 147% 165% 180% 194% 206% 216% 224% Space Remaining Total Elementary Capacity = 2,100 Total Enrollment PK-4 1,637 1,804 1,974 2,164 2,361 2,548 2,727 2,888 3,034 3,168 3,279 Capacity Utilization 78% 86% 94% 103% 112% 121% 130% 138% 144% 151% 156% Space Remaining ,068-1,179 Intermediate Capacity = 900 Total Enrollment (5-6) ,010 1,081 1,145 1,203 1,249 1,301 Capacity Utilization 69% 77% 86% 95% 103% 112% 120% 127% 134% 139% 145% Space Remaining Junior High Capacity = 900 Total Enrollment (7-8) ,061 1,135 1,203 1,263 1,315 1,364 Capacity Utilization 73% 81% 89% 98% 109% 118% 126% 134% 140% 146% 152% Space Remaining High School Capacity = 1,600 Projected Fall Enrollment Total Enrollment (9-12) 1,125 1,251 1,383 1,530 1,685 1,841 1,985 2,116 2,234 2,335 2,429 Capacity Utilization 70% 78% 86% 96% 105% 115% 124% 132% 140% 146% 152% Space Remaining Total District Capacity = 5,500 District Total Enrollment (PK-12) 4,038 4,474 4,928 5,432 5,954 6,461 6,928 7,353 7,734 8,067 8,373 Annual Change % Change 9.7% 10.8% 10.1% 10.2% 9.6% 8.5% 7.2% 6.1% 5.2% 4.3% 3.8% Capacity Utilization 73% 81% 90% 99% 108% 117% 126% 134% 141% 147% 152% Space Remaining 1,462 1, ,428-1,853-2,234-2,567-2,873 13

14 CAMPUS LEVEL PROJECTIONS (HIGH) Liberty Hill ISD P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P Burden Elementary Elementary Capacity = 800 Total Enrollment PK ,005 1,052 1,097 Capacity Utilization 82% 87% 93% 99% 104% 110% 115% 120% 126% 131% 137% Space Remaining Liberty Hill Elementary Elementary Capacity = 500 Total Enrollment PK Capacity Utilization 74% 75% 77% 79% 83% 86% 90% 93% 95% 99% 101% Space Remaining Rancho Sienna Elementary Elementary Capacity = 800 Total Enrollment PK ,084 1,258 1,425 1,565 1,688 1,762 1,834 1,909 Capacity Utilization 77% 95% 115% 135% 157% 178% 196% 211% 220% 229% 239% Space Remaining ,034-1,109 Total Elementary Capacity = 2,100 Total Enrollment PK-4 1,637 1,835 2,046 2,270 2,506 2,734 2,936 3,112 3,243 3,379 3,513 Capacity Utilization 78% 87% 97% 108% 119% 130% 140% 148% 154% 161% 167% Space Remaining ,012-1,143-1,279-1,413 Intermediate Capacity = 900 Total Enrollment (5-6) ,091 1,172 1,242 1,293 1,349 1,402 Capacity Utilization 69% 78% 89% 100% 111% 121% 130% 138% 144% 150% 156% Space Remaining Junior High Capacity = 900 Total Enrollment (7-8) ,042 1,146 1,230 1,304 1,357 1,410 1,468 Capacity Utilization 73% 82% 92% 103% 116% 127% 137% 145% 151% 157% 163% Space Remaining High School Capacity = 1,600 Projected Fall Enrollment Total Enrollment (9-12) 1,125 1,275 1,440 1,613 1,801 1,990 2,154 2,298 2,402 2,505 2,619 Capacity Utilization 70% 80% 90% 101% 113% 124% 135% 144% 150% 157% 164% Space Remaining ,019 Total District Capacity = 5,500 District Total Enrollment (PK-12) 4,038 4,555 5,120 5,715 6,344 6,961 7,492 7,956 8,296 8,643 9,003 Annual Change % Change 9.7% 12.8% 12.4% 11.6% 11.0% 9.7% 7.6% 6.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% Capacity Utilization 73% 83% 93% 104% 115% 127% 136% 145% 151% 157% 164% Space Remaining 1, ,461-1,992-2,456-2,796-3,143-3,503 14

15 CAMPUS LEVEL PROJECTIONS (ATTENDANCE LEVEL RECONFIGURE - MODERATE) Moderate Scenario Liberty Hill ISD Projected Fall Enrollment P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P Total Elementary Capacity = 2,100 Total Elementary Capacity = 2,900 in Fall 2020 and 3,400 in Fall 2021 Total Enrollment 1,637 1,804 1,975 2,165 2,827 3,053 3,268 3,461 3,636 3,793 3,930 Capacity Utilization 78% 86% 94% 75% 83% 90% 96% 102% 107% 112% 116% Space Remaining Total Intermediate School Capacity = 900 Total Enrollment Capacity Utilization 69% 77% 86% 95% Space Remaining Total Junior High School Capacity = 900 Total Middle School Capacity = 1,700 in Fall 2021 Total Enrollment ,442 1,567 1,675 1,776 1,864 1,939 2,014 Capacity Utilization 73% 81% 89% 98% 85% 92% 99% 104% 110% 114% 118% Space Remaining Total High School Capacity = 1,600 Total High School Capacity in 2021 = 2,100 Total Enrollment 1,125 1,251 1,383 1,530 1,685 1,841 1,985 2,116 2,234 2,335 2,429 Capacity Utilization 70% 78% 86% 96% 80% 88% 95% 101% 106% 111% 116% Space Remaining Total District Capacity = 5,500 Total District Capacity = 6,300 in Fall 2020 and 7,200 in Fall 2021 District Total Enrollment (PK-12) 4,038 4,474 4,928 5,432 5,954 6,461 6,928 7,353 7,734 8,067 8,373 Annual Change % Change 9.7% 10.8% 10.1% 10.2% 9.6% 8.5% 7.2% 6.1% 5.2% 4.3% 3.8% Capacity Utilization 73% 81% 90% 86% 83% 90% 96% 102% 107% 112% 116% Space Remaining 1,462 1, , ,173 Blue = PK-4th & IS Year Avg. Growth = 10.4% 5 Yr Avg. = 9.9% 10 Yr Avg. = 7.6% Cumulative Total = 1,394 2,423 4,335 15

16 CAMPUS LEVEL PROJECTIONS (ATTENDANCE LEVEL RECONFIGURE - HIGH) High Scenario Liberty Hill ISD Projected Fall Enrollment P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P Total Elementary Capacity = 2,100 Total Elementary Capacity = 2,900 in Fall 2020 and 3,400 in Fall 2021 Total Enrollment 1,637 1,835 2,046 2,270 3,082 3,363 3,599 3,797 3,944 4,096 4,248 Capacity Utilization 78% 87% 97% 78% 91% 99% 106% 112% 116% 120% 125% Space Remaining Total Intermediate School Capacity = 900 Total Enrollment Capacity Utilization 69% 78% 89% 100% Space Remaining Total Junior High School Capacity = 900 Total Middle School Capacity = 1,700 in Fall 2021 Total Enrollment ,461 1,607 1,740 1,862 1,950 2,042 2,136 Capacity Utilization 73% 82% 92% 104% 86% 95% 102% 110% 115% 120% 126% Space Remaining Total High School Capacity = 1,600 Total High School Capacity in 2021 = 2,100 Total Enrollment 1,125 1,275 1,440 1,613 1,801 1,990 2,154 2,298 2,402 2,505 2,619 Capacity Utilization 70% 80% 90% 101% 86% 95% 103% 109% 114% 119% 125% Space Remaining Total District Capacity = 5,500 Total District Capacity = 6,300 in Fall 2020 and 7,200 in Fall 2021 District Total Enrollment (PK-12) 4,038 4,554 5,120 5,715 6,344 6,961 7,492 7,956 8,296 8,643 9,003 Annual Change % Change 9.7% 12.8% 12.4% 11.6% 11.0% 9.7% 7.6% 6.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% Capacity Utilization 73% 83% 93% 91% 88% 97% 104% 111% 115% 120% 125% Space Remaining 1, ,096-1,443-1,803 Blue = PK-4th & IS Year Avg. Growth = 12.3% 5 Yr Avg. = 11.5% 10 Yr Avg. = 8.4% Cumulative Total = 1,677 2,923 4,965 16

17 LIBERTY HILL ISD 2Q 2018 SUMMARY District s total population in 2018 is estimated to be 17,994 (+13% Y-o-Y) In 2018, LHISD is estimated to have 6,169 total households (+13.7 vs. 2017) District sees the most resales in a single quarter for the past 10 years in 2Q18 New homebuilders in the district start a record 265 homes and close 186 homes in 2Q18 Record new home activity continues as the annual rates for the district reach new highs from 3Q17-2Q18: 760 total starts and 721 closings Top producing subdivisions continue to be located in the Rancho Sienna ES zone (79% of district activity) District s median new home price now $305,497 (-5.3% YoY) Developers delivered a record 1,482 new single-family (SF) lots over the past year including 430 in 2Q18 2,148 vacant SF lots were left at the end of June 2018 Nearly 1,000 future SF lots are currently under development in the district Developers are planning another 9,790 future SF lots (not developed yet) District s new home market has the potential to produce more than 4,100 new homes over the next 5 years SF homes have been yielding an average of 0.72 students per closing (yield for all grades) New residential construction and development projected to drive LHISD enrollment up by an average of 10-13% annually over the next 5 years District enrollment projected to surpass 6,000 students in

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18 16980 Dallas Parkway Suite 101 Dallas, Texas Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources it believes to be reliable and accurate, SDS does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information. Information presented in this report represents SDS s estimates as of the date of the report and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any action taken by you or any third party in regard to the subject matter of this report or any other real estate activity. SDS WILL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR SPECIAL DAMAGES, INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) LOST PROFITS, OR DIMINUTION IN VALUE OF YOUR BUSINESS OR PROPERTY, ARISING FROM OR RELATING TO SDS S SERVICES HEREUNDER, REGARDLESS OF ANY NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES AND WHETHER OR NOT SUCH DAMAGES ARE REASONABLE OR FORESEEABLE UNDER THE APPLICABLE CIRCUMSTANCES. SDS S LIABILITY ON ANY CLAIM OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE, FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ARISING OUT OF, CONNECTED WITH, OR RESULTING FROM THIS REPORT OR THE SERVICES PROVIDED BY SDS SHALL IN NO SINGLE CASE, OR IN THE AGGREGATE, EXCEED THE AMOUNTS ACTUALLY PAID TO SDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE REPORT. The following contingencies and limiting conditions are noted as fundamental assumptions that may affect the accuracy or validity of the analysis and conclusions set forth in this report. Specifically, the parties assume: that the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area, the State of Texas, and the nation as a whole will not suffer any major economic shock during the time period of the forecast contained in this report; that general population levels will continue to increase at or above the rate forecast; that the public and third party sources of statistical data and estimates used in this analysis are accurate and complete in all material respects, and that such information is a reasonable resource for project planning purposes; the proposed real estate development projects described herein, when completed, will be designed, promoted, and managed in a manner that will have an impact on the local market that is reasonably consistent with other similar projects in the past; and that the recommendations set forth in this report will be acted upon within a reasonable period of time to preclude major changes in the factual conditions evaluated. Copyright 2018 School District Strategies. 18

PLANNING COMMITTEE MEETING

PLANNING COMMITTEE MEETING 2 10.30.17 AGENDA Introduction and Schedule Review DSISD Department Information Presentations TIRZ Presentation History of Bond Programs in Dripping Springs ISD DSISD Financial