BART s Business Model

Transcription

1 BART s Business Model July 31, 2018 What is Public Transit s Business Model?

2 BART Background Basic Facts Regional rail rapid transit Elected Board of Directors: 9 Comprised of 3 Counties: - Alameda, Contra Costa & San Francisco - Serves San Mateo - Will serve Santa Clara in ,166 weekday riders (FY18) 121 revenue route miles 5 lines, plus Oakland Airport 48 stations 48,000+ parking spaces July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 2

3 BART Background Basic Facts FY19 Adopted Budget Operating: Capital: $ 922 M $1,355 M Rail Farebox Ratio (FTA FY14): (Fare Revenue/Operating Costs) SF/OAK (BART) 78% NYC (NYCTA) 63% Wash DC (WMATA) 62% Boston (MTBA) 60% Philadelphia (SEPTA) 55% July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 3

4 Better BART, Better Market Street 2/3rds of BART trips begin or end on Market Street Weekday Trips by Sub-Area 52%: Transbay 27%: intra-west Bay 21%: intra-east Bay Weekday Ridership (FY10 FY16) Growth: 29% Growth: ~100,000 June ,000 July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 4

5 BART s Business Model Related to the BART Strategic Plan Core: Related to BART s Vision and Mission Seamless Mobility Move people safely and reliably Reduce Risk (safety/service/reputational/financial) How do today s decisions affect BART s long-term outlook? Dynamic: Related to BART s current and future environment Improve Customer Experience Generate Revenue Reduce Costs/Cost Neutral July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 5

6 BART Strategic Plan Framework

7 Strategic Plan and FY19 Budget Strategic Plan function: Linking Policy guidance, Risk information, and Budget decisions Strategic Plan provides policy direction to Budget process & decisionmaking July 31,

8 Ten-Year Financial Outlook FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 $10 $0 -$10 -$20 Millions -$30 -$40 -$50 -$60 -$70 July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 8

9 BART DAS, July 2014 Riders by Station, by Time of Day Combined Station Entries & Exits in 15 Minute Increments Montgomery Embarcadero MT EM PL CC 19th BK 16th 12th 24th :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 MA BP ED PH July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 9

10 The Before and After Effects of BART Transbay Service July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 10

11 Recent BART Ridership Trends Annual Trips (millions) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 11

12 Rail Ridership Trends At Peer Agencies Year-to-year % change (Calendar Year 2016 vs 2015) 0.2% -1.3% -0.2% -0.8% -4.7% -4.5% -10.4% BART WMATA (DC) MARTA (Atlanta) CTA (Chicago) MBTA (Boston) NY MTA SEPTA (SE Penn) Note: These data are based on unlinked passenger trips. Source: Unlinked passenger trips July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 12

13 Transbay AM Floating Peak Hour, Peak Direction Ridership 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 Peak Hour Ridership July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 13

14 Ridership by Day of Week July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 14

15 Ridership Trends July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 15

16 Fare Revenue $600 Annual Fare Revenue (millions) $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $49 $41 $43 $35 $40 $274 $278 $291 $299 $318 $53 $54 $9 $353 $353 $63 $60 $61 $60 $27 $33 $39 $19 $383 $399 $392 $393 Date of Increase Average Increase 1/1/ % 1/1/ % 7/1/ % 7/1/ % 1/1/ % 1/1/ % 1/1/ % $0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY18 Est Core System CPI-based Fare Increase SFO Extension July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 16

17 Capital Sources Total excludes $7M in reimbursable capital expenses 17

18 FY17-31 CIP Major Investment Programs Need and Funding Capital Asset Renewal Programs Big 3 (including TCMP) Core Capacity (Excluding TCMP) Access Enhancement and Station Mod BART Metro Earthquake Safety Program System Expansion Other Needs Need and Funding (millions) $- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 Committed Funds Discretionary Funds Funding Gap July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 18

19 Capital Budget History July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 19

20 Operating to Capital Allocations Operating Expenditures ($M) $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $63 $24 $428 $70 $34 $467 $66 $68 $68 $68 $50 $8 $34 $59 $498 $524 $498 $486 $62 $64 $524 $58 $62 $113 $84 $561 $569 $56 $49 $148 $144 $610 $637 $50 $123 $690 $51 $127 $ % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Operating Funds Allocated to Capital/Access $- FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Budget Operating Expense Debt Service Allocations to Capital, Access, and Reserves % of Operating Funds Allocated to Capital/Access 0% July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 20

21 BART s Business Model Related to the BART Strategic Plan Core: Related to BART s Vision and Mission Seamless Mobility Move people safely and reliably Reduce Risk (safety/service/reputational/financial) How do today s decisions affect BART s long-term outlook? Dynamic: Related to BART s current and future environment Improve Customer Experience Generate Revenue Reduce Costs/Cost Neutral July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 21

22 Near Term Focus and Issues Operating Essentials Open BART to Antioch May 2018 Integrate New Rail Cars into revenue service Staff an expanded Hayward Maintenance Complex Initiatives to Improve Customer Experience, Reduce Costs, Generate Revenue Quality of Life Homelessness Cleanliness Fare Evasion Safety & security Administrative process efficiency improvements Access and Parking improvements July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 22

23 Ridership and Employment Trends BART Ridership vs SF-Oak-Hayward MSA Employment 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 SF-Oakland-Hayward MSA Employment Avg Weekday Ridership 12 per. Mov. Avg. (SF-Oakland-Hayward MSA Employment) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Avg Weekday Ridership) July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 23

24 Non-Passenger Revenue Opportunities Transit Oriented Development Advertising The BART Digital Railway and Digital Strategy July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 24

25 Status Station Total Units Affordable Office Retail % Affordable Units (SF) (SF) Castro Valley Current (1993) TOD Portfolio % Fruitvale Phase I (2004) % 27,000 37,000 Pleasant Hill Phase I (2008) % 35,590 Hayward (1998) % Ashby (2011) 0 0 0% 80,000 Richmond Phase I (2004) % 9,000 MacArthur Ph I (2016) % San Leandro Ph I (2017) % 5,000 1,000 West Dublin (2013) % East Dublin (2008) % South Hayward Ph I (2017) % TOTAL COMPLETED % 112,000 82,590 Completed Construction/ Planned MacArthur Ph II (begins 2017 & 2018) % 39,100 San Leandro Ph II ( ) % Walnut Creek (began 2017) % Coliseum Phase I ( ) % West Pleasanton ( ) 0 0 0% 410,000 Pleasant Hill Block C (begin 2018) % Fruitvale Phase IIA (begin 2018) % TOTAL UNDER CONST. & PLANNED % 410,000 39,100 GRAND TOTAL % 522, ,690

26 Revenue from Transit-Oriented Development Revenue is long term: from choices made years ago Past priorities: ridership, parking replacement, long term revenue City Redevelopment played major role in most completed projects Decisions made today could affect revenue in 7-10 years 2018 BART TOD-Generated Revenue Land Lease/Sale $740k Participation* Ridership $184K ~ $3 Million *Transit Benefit Fees, Revenue Sharing for Retail, Parking Garages July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 26

27 Revenue Share Opportunity $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $- $.5 M $10.0 M $9.0 M October 1, June 30, 2019 $15.2 M $15.1 M $15.1 M $15.0 M $15.1 M $11.3 M $11.6 M $4.7 M $6.0 M $2.4 M $12.0 M $12.0 M $12.0 M $12.0 M $13.0 M $14.0 M $15.0 M $16.0 M $17.0 M $18.0 M FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 BART Revenue Share Opportunity (based on Outfront projection) Signing Bonus Payment to BART (Guaranteed) Minimum Annual Payment to BART (Guaranteed) Based on OUTFRONT net revenue projection, total estimated payments to BART could be approximately $272M, of which $160M is guaranteed. July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 27

28 Digital Railway Current State FY16 $8.5M Fiber & Cellular Revenue Underground Cellular Network Above Ground Cellular Towers Dark Fiber FY17 $9.7M Fiber & Cellular Revenue July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 28

29 Digital Railway Business Units July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 29

30 Areas to Watch Potential for further ridership declines Ballot measure to repeal SB1, reducing BART s STA allocation Next Economic Downturn Impacts of National Policies July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 30

31 Concluding Remarks Discussion and Questions July 31, 2018 SPUR: What is Public Transit s Business Model? 31