CONSENSUS FORECAST Philippines

Transcription

1 CONSENSUS FORECAST Contents... 2 Calendar Notes... 1 Order Form... 1 July 21 Publication date: 2 June 21 Information available: up to and including 2 June 21 Forecasts collected: 1 June - 2 June 21 Next edition: 2 July 21.. Arne Pohlman Ángel Talavera Ricardo Aceves Mateusz Reimann Chief Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Economist Gerardo Morán Armando Ciccarelli Ricard Torné Pamela Pogliani Head of Research Senior Economist Senior Economist Economist FocusEconomics 21 ISSN 21-9 FOCUSECONOMICS Economic Forecasts from the World s Leading Economists Gran Via 7 E-81 Barcelona, Spain Phone: Fax: info@focus-economics.com

2 July 21 LONG-TERM TRENDS -year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): 2,98 2,87, GDP growth (%):.1.. Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP): Inflation (%):...1 Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): Outlook improves The economy outperformed the rest of Asia in the first quarter, with GDP expanding a strong 7.8% in annual terms. More recently, remittances rebounded in April, after having been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year. On the downside, exports plunged in April, mainly reflecting a strong drop in exports of manufactures. Meanwhile, starting January 21, in order to cut costs, the Central Bank will ban all trust entities, except Unit Investment Trust Funds, from depositing funds in Special Deposit Accounts (SDAs). SDAs were created to absorb up excess liquidity by offering high rates of return versus comparable investments. FocusEconomics panellists expect the economy to expand.% in 21. In 21, panellists see growth moderating to.%. Inflation rose 2.% May matching results from April. At its 1 June monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to keep the key policy rate at.%. FocusEconomics panellists expect inflation to average.% in 21 and.8% in 21. Pamela Pogliani Economist Gross Domestic Product variation in % %. 2.. Q2 29 Q2 21 Q2 211 Q2 212 Q2 21 Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and FocusEconomics Forecast. REAL SECTOR GDP outperforms rest of Asia in Q1 In the first quarter, GDP expanded 7.8% over the same period the year before. The reading came in well above the 7.1% rise observed in the fourth quarter (previously reported: +.8% year-on-year) and overshot market expectations, which had expected growth to slow down to.%. Economic growth in the first quarter beat China s Q1 growth rate and was therefore among the best performers in Asia. Economic growth in the beginning of the year was mostly underpinned by strong domestic demand. Private consumption slowed from a revised.2% increase in the fourth quarter (previously reported: +.9% yoy) to a.1% rise in Q1 21, partially reflecting slower growth in remittances. Government consumption rose a strong 1.2% (Q 212: +9.% yoy), while fixed investment expanded 1.8% in the first quarter (Q: +19.7% yoy). In addition, GDP largely benefited from a positive shift in inventories. On the external sector, exports of goods and services contracted 7.% in the first quarter, contrasting the 8.% increase observed in Q. Simultaneously, imports grew 1.% (Q: +8.% yoy). As a result, the external sector s net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from plus.7 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus.1 percentage points in the first. The government expects growth of between.% and 7.% in 21 and between.% and 7.% in 21. FocusEconomics Forecast panellists expect economic growth to reach.% this year, which is up. FocusEconomics Forecast 2

3 July 21 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21 panellists expect growth to slow to.%. OFW Remittances USD billion and variation in % 2. Monthly OFW remittances in USD bn (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale) EXTERNAL SECTOR Remittances remain strong in April In April, remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) increased.1% over the same month last year to USD 1.8 billion. The print was well above the.% expansion observed in March. As a result of the higher annual reading, the trend now points upwards, with remittances adding USD 21.8 billion in the 12 months up to April (March: USD 21.7 billion), a.% expansion over the same period last year (March: +.% year-on-year) Apr-1 Oct-1 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-1 Note: Monthly OFW remittances in USD billion and annual variation in %. Source: Central Bank of the (BSP). 8. %. The Central Bank stated that remittance flows remain strong partially due to the sustained demand for Filipino skilled workers. Moreover, the continued efforts by the government to enhance welfare of OFWs and the improvement of services by bank and non-bank remittance providers are expected to boost remittances going forward. Remittances account for approximately 9% of GDP and are an important source of income for many Filipino families. Given its significance to the economy, OFW funds sent from abroad are one of the key drivers of private consumption in the country. FocusEconomics Forecast panellists expect private consumption to grow.% in 21, which is down. percentage points from the previous month s projection. For 21, the panel expects private consumption to expand.%. Monetary Policy Rate in % 7. MONETARY SECTOR Central Bank keeps rates unchanged in June At its 1 June monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank left its Reverse Repurchase rate unchanged at.%, in a decision widely expected by the market. At the same time, the Bank decided to keep interest rates on its Special Deposit Accounts (SDA) facility stable. SDA facilities are fixed-term deposit accounts by banks and bank trust entities within the Central Bank with maturities between one week and one month... %.. Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-1 Note: Reverse Repurchase Rate in %. Source: Central Bank of the (BSP). According to the Central Bank, the Monetary Board s decision is based on its assessment that the inflation environment remains benign, with expectations firmly anchored within the inflation target band. Moreover, liquidity and credit availability should continue to sustain economic activity in the next months. Monetary authorities added that following the weak pace of global economic activity, risks to the inflation outlook could continue to ease going forward. That said, the Bank stated that upward pressures on inflation could still stem from the impact of sustained capital inflows and energy price adjustments. According to the Bank, the decision to maintain rates unchanged this month also gives time to monitor the effects of recent fine-tuning operations by the Central Bank. Forecast panellists see the Reverse Repurchase rate at.8% in 21. For 21, panellists expect the Reverse Repurchase rate to rise to.%. MONETARY SECTOR Inflation falls to lowest level in almost four years In May, consumer prices remained virtually unchanged, rising a slight.8% over the previous month, which followed the.2% increase recorded in April. The reading mainly reflects higher prices for food items that were nearly offset by lower prices for electricity, gas and other fuels. FocusEconomics Forecast

4 July 21 Inflation Consumer Price Index Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale)... Following the subdued monthly rise, annual headline inflation was unchanged in May at 2.%, which came in below market expectations that saw inflation rising to 2.8%. The reading marks the lowest print since September 29. Annual average inflation, which is the reference rate used by the Central Bank as a guide for monetary policy, was also unchanged over last month at.1%. At the current level, average inflation remains still within the Central Bank s target of.% plus/minus 1. percentage points. % May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-1 Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Source: National Statistics Office (NSO). %. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as food and oil, increased.1% over the previous month in May, driving annual core inflation down to.% (April:.1%). The Central Bank expects inflation to settle within the lower end of its target of.% plus/minus 1. percentage points in both 21 and 21. FocusEconomics Forecast panellists expect annual inflation to average.% in 21, which is down.1 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21, the panel expects inflation to average.8%. Merchandise Exports in % 1 % -1 Year-on-year Annual average - Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-1 Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %. Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) and FocusEconomics calculations. EXTERNAL SECTOR Exports plunge in April In April exports plunged 12.8%, which contrasted the.1% rise seen in the previous month. In addition, the declined exceeded market expectations of a.% drop. The result mainly reflected a strong drop in exports of manufactures, which fell 1.% in April (March: -.% year-on-year). Similarly, agro-based products also experienced a decline in annual terms, falling.1%. Moreover, exports of electronic goods contracted only.% compared to the sharp 22.% decline seen in March. FocusEconomics Forecast panellists see exports expanding 7.% in 21 and 7.% in 21. Meanwhile, in March the latest month for which data is available imports dropped 8.% in annual terms (February: -.8% yoy). As a result, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 9 million (March 212: USD 1. billion deficit), which prompted the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance to reach a USD 9.7 billion deficit (February: USD 1.1 billion deficit). FocusEconomics Forecast panellists expect the trade deficit to widen in the months ahead and reach USD 12.8 billion in 21 and USD 1.2 billion in 21. FocusEconomics Forecast

5 Economic Indicators July 21 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) 1,92 1,8 2,12 2,9 2,1 2,898,11,,2,8 GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) Reverse Repurchase Rate (%, eop) Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) Year Bond Yield (%, eop) Stock Market (variation of PSEi in %) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) Remittances (USD bn) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Q 12 Q 12 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q 1 Q 1 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) Consumer Confidence (-point threshold) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) Reverse Repurchase Rate (%, eop) Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) Year Bond Yield (%, eop) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) Monthly Data Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) Remittances (annual var. in %) FocusEconomics Forecast

6 Real Sector Gross Domestic Product July 21 1 Real GDP variation in % 1 1 World GDP 21 evolution of forecasts 8 7 Consumption variation in % 1 2 Real GDP Q1 1-Q 1 var. in % Real GDP growth in % 1 1 World Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 1 Q1 1 GDP 21 evolution of forecasts 7 Investment variation in % 2 Individual Forecasts ANZ.. Banco de Oro.7. BBVA Research.. BofA Merrill Lynch..1 BPI AMTG. - Capital Economics.. Citigroup Global Mkts 7..8 Credit Suisse 7.2. Daiwa.8. DBS Bank.. Deutsche Bank 7.. EIU.9. Goldman Sachs.2. HSBC.9. ING..9 JPMorgan Metrobank 7.. Nomura 7..2 Oxford Economics.. Philippine Equity Partners..1 Standard Chartered.9. UBS 7.. Summary Median.... History days ago..8 days ago days ago..8 Additional Forecasts Government (Dec. 212) IMF (Apr. 21).. ADB (Apr. 21) Consumption evolution of fcst Investment evolution of forecasts Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 217 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. Source: NSCB. GDP, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. GDP, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB. Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB. 7 Private consumption, change in 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 8 Gross fixed investment, change in 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 9 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: NSO. 1 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NSO. 11 Balance of national government as % of GDP. Source: BSP. 12 Manufacturing, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1 Unemployment, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1 Balance of national government as % of GDP, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. FocusEconomics Forecast

7 Real Sector Additional forecasts July 21 Consumption variation in % Investment variation in % Unemployment % of active pop. Fiscal Balance % of GDP Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BBVA Research BofA Merrill Lynch BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Daiwa DBS Bank Deutsche Bank EIU Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Metrobank Nomura Oxford Economics Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered UBS Summary Median History days ago days ago days ago Manufacturing variation in % 1 Unemployment % of active pop. 11 Fiscal Balance % of GDP Manufacturing evolution of fcst Unemployment evolution of fcst 7. 1 Fiscal Balance evolution of fcst FocusEconomics Forecast 7

8 Monetary Sector Inflation 1 Inflation in % Inflation 21 evolution of fcst 2 19 Core and Producer Prices var. in % 1 Core PPI 1 Inflation Q1 1-Q 1 in % 8 2 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 1 Q Inflation 21 evolution of fcst 2 2 Money variation in % July 21 Inflation annual avg. var. of consumer price index in % Individual Forecasts ANZ. 2.9 Banco de Oro.. BBVA Research.. BofA Merrill Lynch.1.7 BPI AMTG.2 - Capital Economics.. Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse.. Daiwa.. DBS Bank.1. Deutsche Bank.1.2 EIU.7. Goldman Sachs.2.8 HSBC..1 ING.. JPMorgan 2.9. Metrobank.. Nomura.2. Oxford Economics Philippine Equity Partners.1.7 Standard Chartered.. UBS Summary Median History days ago..9 days ago.. 9 days ago.. Additional Forecasts Central Bank Target IMF (Apr. 21).7. ADB (Apr. 21) Notes and sources 21 MSCI Price Index 2 1 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 22 Stock Market PSEi 8, 7,,,,, 2, Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 217 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Forecast. 1 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: NSO. 1 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: NSO. 17 Inflation, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 18 Inflation, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (aop) Source: NSO. 2 Money, annual variation of M2 in % Source: BSP. 21 Daily MSCI Price Index in USD. Jan. 21 until end of previous week. Source: MSCI Barra. 22 Daily index levels, PSEi. Jan. 21 until end of previous week. Source: The Philippine Stock Exchange. FocusEconomics Forecast 8

9 Monetary Sector Interest Rate and Exchange Rate July 21 2 Interest Rate in % Int. Rate 21 evolution of fcst 2 27 Exchange Rate PHP per USD 2 Interest Rate Q1 1-Q 1 in %..... Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 1 Q1 1 2 Int. Rate 21 evolution of fcst 28 Exchange Rate PHP per USD 8 Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % PHP per USD Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BBVA Research BofA Merrill Lynch BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Daiwa DBS Bank Deutsche Bank EIU Goldman Sachs HSBC.... ING JPMorgan Metrobank Nomura Oxford Economics Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered UBS Summary Median History days ago days ago days ago PHP per USD 21 evol. of fcst 8 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 1 Q1 1 PHP per USD 21 evol. of fcst Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 217 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Forecast. 2 Interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source: BSP. 2 Quarterly interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source: BSP. 2 Interest rate, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2 Interest rate, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 27 Exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 28 Quarterly exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 29 Exchange rate, evolution of 21 forecast during the last 18 months. Exchange rate, evolution of 21 forecast during the last 18 months. 1 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NSO. 2 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: NSO. International reserves, months of imports. Source: BSP. Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. Exports, annual variation in %. Source: NSO. External debt as % GDP. Source: BSP. FocusEconomics Forecast 9

10 July 21 External Sector Current Account, Trade and International Reserves Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves % of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BBVA Research BofA Merrill Lynch BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Daiwa DBS Bank Deutsche Bank EIU Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Metrobank Nomura Oxford Economics Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered UBS Summary Median History days ago days ago days ago Current Account % of GDP 2 Trade Balance USD billion Int. Reserves months of imports 1 1 Trade Balance Exports Imports Current Account evol. of fcst Exports annual variation in % External Debt % of GDP FocusEconomics Forecast 1

11 Fact Sheet July 21 General Data Official name: Republic of the Capital: Manila (11. m) Other cities: Davao (1. m) Cebu City (.8 m) Area (km2):, Population (million, 212 est.): 97.7 Population density (per km2, 212 est.): 2 Population growth rate (%, 212 est.): 1.9 Life expectancy (years, 212 est.): 71.1 Illiteracy rate (%, 2): 7. Language: Filipino and English Measures: Metric system Time: GMT+8 in the Region Population %-share in Asia Thailand 2.% Other.% Indonesia 7.7% India 8.%.1% China 2.% Korea 8.% GDP %-share in Asia Indonesia.2% India 1.% Other 12.9% 1.8% China 8.1% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (211) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 7.2 Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 92. Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 29. Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): 1.9 Energy (21) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 82 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,217 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h):. Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h):.8 Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 9 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 8. Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % Agriculture Manufacturing Other Industry Services Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (212) Airports: 27 Railways (km): 99 Roadways (km): 21,11 Waterways (km):,219 Chief Ports: Manila Trade Structure -2 Primary markets share in % Political Data President: Benigno Aquino III Last elections: 1 May 21 Next elections: May 21 Central Bank Governor: Amando M. Tetangco Jr. Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: Ba1 Stable S&P: BBB- Positive Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable Hong Kong 9.2% Singapore 9.% China 11.8% Other 1.1% Exports Other Asia ex-japan 1.9% Japan 19.% EU % U.S.A. 1.2% Other.8% Primary products share in % Imports LatAm 2.1% U.S.A. 2.% Other Asia ex-japan.2% China.% EU-27 8.% Strengths Weaknesses Food 8.% Other 1.7% Food 11.% Other 9.% Widespread English proficiency Well-educated labour force Solid telecom infrastructure Large domestic market Weak fiscal structure Inadequate infrastructure Low savings and investment poses limits to growth. Exports Manufact. Products 7.9% Mineral Fuels 18.% Imports Manufact. Products 1.% FocusEconomics Forecast 11

12 Economic Release Calendar Calendar July 21 Date Country Event 2 June Hong Kong May Merchandise Trade 2 June Korea June Consumer Confidence (CSI) 2 June April Imports 2 June Vietnam June Consumer Prices (**) 2 June Korea July Business Confidence (BSI) 27 June New Zealand May Merchandise Trade 27 June New Zealand June Business Confidence 27 June Thailand May Manufacturing Production 28 June Korea May Industrial Production 28 June Vietnam Q2 21 National Accounts (**) 28 June Vietnam June Industrial Production (**) 1 July China June Purchasing Managers' Index 1 July Indonesia May Real Retail Sales (**) 1 July Indonesia June Consumer Prices 1 July Indonesia May Merchandise Trade 1 July Korea June Consumer Prices 1 July Singapore June Manufacturing PMI (**) 1 July Thailand June Consumer Prices 2 July Australia Central Bank Meeting 2 July Hong Kong May Retail Sales July Australia May Retail Sales July Malaysia May Merchandise Trade July June Consumer Prices July Taiwan June Consumer Prices 8 July Taiwan June Merchandise Trade 9 July China June Consumer Prices 1 July Australia June Business Confidence (**) 1 July China June Merchandise Trade (**) 1 July China June Money Supply (M2) (**) 1 July China June Credit Growth (New Yuan Loans) (**) 1 July May Exports 1 July Thailand Central Bank Meeting 11 July Australia June Unemployment 11 July Indonesia Central Bank Meeting 11 July Korea Central Bank Meeting 11 July Malaysia Central Bank Meeting 11 July Malaysia May Industrial Production 12 July India May Industrial Production 1 July Singapore Q2 21 National Accounts (**) 1 July Australia July Consumer Confidence (**) 1 July China June Retail Sales 1 July China June Industrial Production 1 July China June Fixed Asset Investment FocusEconomics Forecast 12

13 Economic Release Calendar Calendar July 21 Date Country Event 1 July China Q2 21 National Accounts 1 July India June Wholesale Prices 1 July Korea June Merchandise Trade (**) 1 July May OFW Remittances 1 July New Zealand Q2 21 Consumer Prices 17 July Malaysia June Consumer Prices 17 July Singapore June Merchandise Trade 19 July India June Merchandise Trade (**) 22 July Hong Kong June Consumer Prices 22 July Taiwan June Unemployment (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Forecast 1

14 July 21 Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: Asia (12 countries): China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia,, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asia ex-japan (11 countries): China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia,, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, countries): Indonesia, Malaysia,, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The remaining four Asean members (Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia and Laos) are not included in the calculation of the regional average. NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 21 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 7 E-81 Barcelona Spain tel: fax: info@focus-economics.com web: DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Forecast Asia ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panellists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Forecast 1