CONSENSUS FORECAST. Iceland April Contributors ICELAND 2 CALENDAR 5 NOTES 6

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1 CONSENSUS FORECAST ICELAND 2 CALENDAR 5 NOTES 6 PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 215 FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 3 March 215 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 3 March 215 NEXT EDITION 5 May 215 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior RICARD TORNÉ Senior OLGA COSCODAN CARL KELLY TERESA KERSTING DIRINA MANÇELLARI ANGELA BOUZANIS CECILIA SIMKIEVICH MIRIAM DOWD Editor

2 LONG-TERM TRENDS 3-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): 46,259 45,835 51,397 GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): Outlook stable s Central Bank (CBI) continues to make progress toward rectifying the legacies of the financial crisis. The Bank stated that the plan for lifting the capital controls that were imposed in 28 was moving forward although details are not yet public. Meanwhile, the CBI continues to auction off ISK deposits owned by foreigners in an effort to match currency leaving the county with currency coming in. These auctions have now reduced the level of foreign holdings of ISK to 15% of GDP. The economic situation in continues to improve, GDP grew 3.% annually in Q4 214, which was above the 1.7% tallied in Q3 and pushed GDP growth for full year 214 to 1.9%. s positive momentum will continue in 215, although growth may be impacted depending on how the capital controls are lifted. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 3.2% in 215. For 216, the panel sees growth at 3.%. Robert Hill In March, inflation came in at 1.6%, the highest reading since October last year. The change was driven mostly by a rise in clothing and footwear prices. Panelists project average inflation of 2.4% in 215 and 2.7% in GDP variation in % 2 Fiscal Balance % of GDP 3 Inflation in % World GDP evolution of forecasts 5 Fiscal Balance evolution of fcst 6 Inflation evolution of forecasts FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 2

3 Economic Indicators Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) 68,182 57,143 4,752 4,881 47,17 43,75 46,584 52,469 5,56 51,667 GDP (USD bn) GDP per capita (ISK mn) GDP (ISK bn) 1,374 1,548 1,586 1,621 1,73 1,78 1,881 1,993 2,78 2,196 Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Private Consumption (annual var. in %) Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) Day Deposit Rate (%, eop) Exchange Rate (ISK per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (ISK per USD, aop) Exchange Rate (ISK per EUR, eop) Exchange Rate (ISK per EUR, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exchange Rate ISK per USD 14 8 Current Account % of GDP ISK per USD evolution of fcst Current Account evol. of fcst Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 216 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the Statistics (SI) and the Central Bank of (CBI). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: SI. 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: SI. 3 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: SI. 4 GDP, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 18 months. 6 Inflation, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 18 months. 7 Exchange rate, ISK per USD (eop). Source: CBI. 8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CBI. 9 Exchange rate, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 18 months. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 3

4 Fact Sheet General Data Official name: Republic of Capital: Reykjavik (.2m) Area (km2): 13, Population (million, 214 est.):.3 Population density (per km2, 214): 3.1 Population growth rate (%, 214 est.):.7 Life expectancy (years, 214 est.): 81.2 Illiteracy rate (%, 23): 1. Language: ic, English, German widely spoken Measures: Metric system Time: GMT in the Region Population %-share in Nordic region Finland 2.8% 19.6% Denmark 21.4% 1.2% Sweden 37.% GDP %-share in Nordic region Denmark 19.9% Finland 15.8% 3.1% 1.% Sweden 33.2% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (213) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 51. Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 18 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 96.5 Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): 35.1 Energy (212) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 166 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 27 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 17.4 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 16.9 Oil Supply (thousand bpd):. Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 17.8 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 3.5 Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % Agriculture Manufacturing Industry Services Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (213) Airports: 96 Railways (km): - Roadways (km): 12,89 Waterways (km): - Chief Ports: Reykjavík, Grundartangi, Hafnarfjördur Trade Structure -2 Primary markets share in % Political Data Prime Minister: Sigmundur Davíd Gunnlaugsson Last elections: 27 April 213 Next elections: 217 Central Bank Governor: Már Gudmundsson Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: Baa3 Stable S&P: BBB- Positive Fitch Ratings: BBB Positive U.K. 9.8% 21.6% Germany 12.9% 5.1% Exports EU % Netherlands 3.% Brazil 6.7% China 7.2% Denmark 5.7% 14.5% Netherlands 6.% Germany 9.2% Primary products share in % Imports 16.6% EU % U.S.A. 1.2% Strengths Net energy exporter High tourist potential High foreign exchange reserves Weaknesses Small economy, sensitive to external demand shocks Non-diversified export and production High external debt Food 42.8% 2.8% Manufact. Products 14.3% Exports Ores & Metals 4.% Mineral Fuels 14.2% Food 1.6% 4.1% Imports Manufact. Products 71.% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 4

5 Calendar Economic Release Calendar Date Country Event 5 March Sweden January Industrial Production 6 March January Industrial Production 1 March Denmark February Consumer Prices 1 March Finland January Industrial Production 1 March February Consumer Prices 11 March Sweden February Consumer Prices 13 March Finland January Balance of Payments 13 March Finland January Trend Indicator of Output 19 March Monetary Policy Meeting 23 March Denmark March Consumer Confidence 3 March Denmark March Business Confidence (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 5

6 Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Notes Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 9% of total global output: G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also countries. (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark,, Sweden and. Finland is also a Euro area member. Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members. MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela. Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 21 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 215 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Nordic Economies is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657 E-81 Barcelona Spain tel: fax: info@focus-economics.com web: DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Nordic Economies ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 6

7 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,6 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASIA PACIFIC Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland,, and Sweden FocusEconomics Gran Via 657, 81, Barcelona, Spain subscribers@focus-economics.com