XP PresidentialPoll. June, 2018

Transcription

1 XP PresidentialPoll June, 2018

2 XP Presidential Poll - Details Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe) Sample: 1000 interviews/each week XP Presidential Polls Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register# May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018 May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018 May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - - June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018 June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018 June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018 Coverage: National Method: Phone call interviews Margin of Error: 1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p. 2

3 Voter profile: current week distribution VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL) GENDER REGION MALE 48% NORTH 8% FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27% AGE SOUTHEAST 43% 16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 1 18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7% 35 TO 54 YO 41% TYPE OF CITY +55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 2 OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 14% WORKING 64% COUNTRY TOWNS 61% NOT WORKING 36% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < HAB E CLASS (< 1 MW) TO HAB 22% D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) TO HAB 1 C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 33% > HAB 32% B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 13% RELIGION A CLASS (> 20 MW) 4% CATHOLIC 61% DIDN'T ANSWER EVANGELICAL 22% EDUCATION LEVEL HAVE NO RELIGION ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 13% SPIRITTUALISM 3% MIDDLE SCHOOL 21% OTHER 6% HIGH SCHOOL 4 ADVENTITST 1% HIGHER EDUCATION 21% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 3

4 Highlights This week, XP Presidential Poll shows little or no change in first-round scenarios. In second-round scenarios, Bolsonaro continues to recede and fell between 1 p.p. and 2 p.p. (within the margin of error) in all four scenarios in which he is considered. He still looses to Lula (33% to 41%) and remains technically tied to Geraldo Alckmin (32% to 31%), Marina Silva (32% to 36%) and Ciro Gomes (33% to 32%). The majority of the voters doesnt care about the elections yet. On the one hand, as the World Cup kicks in the number of voters uninterested in the election (not interested + bit interested) grew from 51% in the previous week to 56% now. On the other hand, even with the start of the most popular sport event in the world, it wasn t able to curb the rejection rate of the current administration that marked a new high at 8 For the first time, the electorate was asked about their opinion on controversial themes. Bolsonaro s voters were those most in favor of the right to keep and bear arms, to reduce the legal age from 18 years to 16 years old, death penalty, military intervention and privatizations. Geraldo Alckmin s voters, however were those most in favor of a pension reform. 4

5 XP Poll 1. Electoral Scenarios 2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis 5

6 Voting Intention - Spontaneous June Week 3 IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? (SPONTANEOUS) 4 42% Dont Know/Didn't Answer 37% 37% 3 33% 27% % 11% 19% 18% 12% 2 14% 14% 28% 27% None/Blank/Null Bolsonaro 13% 13% 13% Lula 12% 13% 13% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 6

7 Scenario 1 PT presents no candidate June Week 3 IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? 3 29% 2 29% 22% 27% 2 23% None/Blank/Null 29% 29% Bolsonaro 22% 22% 22% 13% 1 Marina 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 9% Ciro Alckmin 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 7

8 Scenario 2 with Fernando Haddad (PT) June Week 3 IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? 28% 3 29% 26% None/Blank/Null 28% 27% 27% 21% 2 22% 24% 22% Bolsonaro 21% 21% 14% 1 13% 11% 14% Marina 14% 13% 13% 11% Ciro 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% Alckmin 8% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 8

9 Scenario 3 with Lula (PT) June Week 3 IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? 28% 3 28% 29% Lula 28% 19% 18% 7% 4% 4% % Bolsonaro 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 1 None/Blank/Null 1 13% Marina 8% 7% Alckmin 9% 7% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% Ciro May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 9

10 Scenario 4 Haddad with Lula s support June Week 3 IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? 24% 19% 12% 11% None/Blank/Null 24% 21% 19% 19% Bolsonaro Fernando Haddad, supported by Lula 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% Marina 9% 9% 8% Ciro 8% 8% 8% Alckmin 8% 8% Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 10

11 Vote Migration 4 41% Lula's Vote Migration MICRODATA SPECIAL Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario % 2 21% 21% 18% 18% 18% 1 8% 13% 8% 4% 7% 6% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 11

12 2 nd Round Scenarios 6 IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE: 5 49% 47% 31% 28% 2 1 6% 6% None/Blank/Null 41% 41% Geraldo Alckmin 29% 28% Fernando Haddad 19% 19% Don't Know/Didn't Answer 7% 6% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE: % 3 38% 36% 3 42% 34% 41% Lula 33% 2 26% 24% 24% 22% Jair Bolsonaro None/Blank/Null 24% 1 Don't Know/Didn't Answer 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 12

13 2 nd Round Scenarios 3 2 IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE: 3 34% 34% 33% 29% 28% None/Blank/Null 34% 33% 34% 34% 31% Bolsonaro 32% 29% 31% Geraldo Alckmin 1 Don't Know/Didn't Answer 4% 3% 3% 3% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE: 3 37% 31% 31% 31% 3% 2% 36% 3 28% 1% 38% 34% 2 Marina 36% 32% Bolsonaro 28% None/Blank/Null Don't Know/Didn't Answer 3% 3% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 13

14 2 nd Round Scenarios IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE: 38% 39% 32% 27% 27% 38% 32% 29% 36% None/Blank/Null 34% 31% 32% Alckmin Ciro 1 Don't Know/Didn't Answer 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 4 IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE: % 32% 29% 38% 3 29% 33% 29% 29% Bolsonaro 34% 33% 33% 32% Ciro 29% 27% None/Blank/Null 1 4% 3% 2% Don't Know/Didn't Answer 7% 6% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 14

15 Voter conviction Candidates Strong-Minded Votes - 'Will surely vote for' - 29% 19% 9% 8% 8% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 15

16 Rejection Candidates Rejection - 'Wouldn't vote in any scenario' % 58% 53% 46% 4 41% 36% 16

17 Unfamiliarity Unfamiliarity Rate - 'Don't know enough' - 58% 5 53% % 26% 13% 11% 8% 4% 1% 17

18 Conviction, recognition and rejection. June Week 3 I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY. Would Surely Vote Could Vote Wouldn't Vote Dont't Know Enough Don'tKnow/ Didn'tAnswer Total LULA 29% 6 1% 1% 10 BOLSONARO 19% 12% 53% 13% 4% 10 MARINA 9% 27% 6 4% 1% 10 CIRO 8% 21% 6 11% 1% 10 ALCKMIN 8% 6 8% 4% 10 HADDAD 58% 26% 10 A. DIAS 14% 4 3 1% 10 AMOÊDO 2% 4% 36% 58% 1% 10 MANUELA 2% 7% 46% 4 10 MEIRELLES 2% 11% 58% 29% 1% 10 BOULOS 1% 41% 53% 10 FLAVIO R. 1% 4%

19 Expectation of Victory June Week 3 IN YOUR OPINION, WHO'S GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT? 31% 27% % 26% 2 23% 21% Bolsonaro 32% 31% 31% Don't Know 27% 26% 23% 23% 2 Lula 19% 1 7% Alckmin 6% 6% 3% 4% 4% 4% Ciro May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% JAIR BOLSONARO DON'T KNOW LULA GERALDO ALCKMIN CIRO GOMES MARINA SILVA ÁLVARO DIAS DIDN'T ANSWER HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 19

20 XP Poll 1. Electoral Scenarios 2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis 20

21 Interest in the election HOW INTERESTED ARE YOU IN THE ELECTIONS THAT WILL HAPPEN IN OCTOBER? VERY INTERESTED 2 24% 26% 28% 23% MORE OR LESS INTERESTED 19% 22% 18% 21% A BIT INTERESTED 19% 21% 21% 19% NOT INTERESTED 36% 32% 34% 31% 37% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 21

22 Voter Profile Undecided w/o PT candidate Undecided w/o Lula MICRODATA SPECIAL UNDECIDED'S VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL) -SCENARIO 1 Deviation to Population Average GENDER REGION MALE -8% NORTH FEMALE 8% NORTHEAST 7% AGE SOUTHEAST -1% 16 & 17 YO SOUTH -3% 18 TO 34 YO 2% MIDWEST -3% 35 TO 54 YO 1% TYPE OF CITY +55 YO -3% CAPITAL TOWNS 2% OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 2% WORKING -1% COUNTRY TOWNS -4% NOT WORKING 1% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < HAB -7% E CLASS (< 1 MW) 9% TO HAB 3% D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 4% TO HAB 4% C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) -7% > HAB B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) -3% RELIGION A CLASS (> 20 MW) -2% CATHOLIC 1% DIDN'T ANSWER EVANGELICAL -2% EDUCATION LEVEL HAVE NO RELIGION ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 3% SPIRITTUALISM MIDDLE SCHOOL 2% OTHER HIGH SCHOOL -3% ADVENTITST 1% HIGHER EDUCATION -2% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN UNDECIDED'S VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL) -SCENARIO 2 Deviation to Population Average GENDER REGION MALE - NORTH FEMALE NORTHEAST AGE SOUTHEAST 2% 16 & 17 YO SOUTH 18 TO 34 YO -1% MIDWEST -2% 35 TO 54 YO TYPE OF CITY +55 YO -4% CAPITAL TOWNS -1% OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 3% WORKING -4% COUNTRY TOWNS -3% NOT WORKING 4% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < HAB -6% E CLASS (< 1 MW) 8% TO HAB 2% D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) TO HAB C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) -6% > HAB -1% B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) - RELIGION A CLASS (> 20 MW) -3% CATHOLIC DIDN'T ANSWER EVANGELICAL -1% EDUCATION LEVEL HAVE NO RELIGION ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 3% SPIRITTUALISM 1% MIDDLE SCHOOL 2% OTHER HIGH SCHOOL ADVENTITST HIGHER EDUCATION -4% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN Slightly prevalence of: female, with lower income from the NE. Slightly prevalence of: female, with lower income. 22

23 Voter Profile Core Undecided UNDECIDED'S VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL) -SCENARIO 3 Deviation to Population Average GENDER REGION MALE -7% NORTH -1% FEMALE 7% NORTHEAST - AGE SOUTHEAST 6% 16 & 17 YO SOUTH 1% 18 TO 34 YO MIDWEST -2% 35 TO 54 YO 1% TYPE OF CITY +55 YO -1% CAPITAL TOWNS 1% OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 2% WORKING -4% COUNTRY TOWNS -3% NOT WORKING 4% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < HAB -6% E CLASS (< 1 MW) 4% TO HAB 3% D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) TO HAB 3% C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) -6% > HAB 1% B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) -2% RELIGION A CLASS (> 20 MW) -1% CATHOLIC -3% DIDN'T ANSWER EVANGELICAL 1% EDUCATION LEVEL HAVE NO RELIGION ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 4% SPIRITTUALISM 2% MIDDLE SCHOOL OTHER 2% HIGH SCHOOL -1% ADVENTITST HIGHER EDUCATION -3% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN Slightly prevalence of: female, from big cities from the SE. MICRODATA SPECIAL 23

24 President Approval June Week 3 10 HOW DO YOU EVALUATE MICHEL TEMER'S GOVERNMENT SO FAR? % 73% 81% 81% % 1 14% 12% 3% 4% 3% May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 12% 3% GREAT/GOOD REGULAR BAD/VERY BAD DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 24

25 Major Themes ARE YOU IN FAVOR OR AGAINST : 3% 16% 7% 7% 1 12% 6% 9% 2% 32% 44% 38% 44% 52% 54% 52% IN FAVOR 64% 7 8 AGAINST 81% 61% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 49% 48% 44% 43% 38% 27% 18% REDUCE LEGAL AGE TO 16ys ABORTION IN CASE OF RAPE DEATH PENALTY GOVT. INTERVENTION IN ECON. SAME SEX MARRIAGE RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS PENSION REFORM MILITARY PRIVATIZATION INTERVENTION ABORTION LEGALIZATION MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION 25

26 Major Themes by Candidate ABORTION LEGALIZATION MICRODATA SPECIAL 4% 4% 4% 4% 8% 7% 5 IN FAVOR 71% 76% 7 79% 79% 79% 82% AGAINST DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 41% 24% 18% 16% 13% 11% CIRO GOMES LULA MARINA SILVA TOTAL JAIR BOLSONARO GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED ÁLVARO DIAS 2% 16% ABORTION IN CASE OF RAPE 4% 6% 7% 4% 13% 32% 32% 32% 32% 34% 36% 36% IN FAVOR AGAINST 82% 64% 64% 62% 61% 61% 6 DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 51% CIRO GOMES ÁLVARO DIAS LULA JAIR BOLSONARO TOTAL MARINA SILVA GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED 26

27 Major Themes by Candidate MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION MICRODATA SPECIAL 4% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 9% 57% IN FAVOR % 82% 87% 8 8 AGAINST DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 39% 24% 18% 18% 16% 13% 12% 11% CIRO GOMES MARINA SILVA TOTAL LULA JAIR BOLSONARO GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED ÁLVARO DIAS RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS 3% 2% 1% 1% 4% 9% 24% 5 52% 52% 51% 63% 69% IN FAVOR 69% AGAINST 74% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 48% 46% 43% 33% 22% JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS GERALDO ALCKMIN TOTAL UNDECIDED LULA MARINA SILVA CIRO GOMES 27

28 Major Themes by Candidate DEATH PENALTY MICRODATA SPECIAL 7% 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 29% 43% 44% 42% 49% 51% 5 54% IN FAVOR AGAINST 66% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 5 49% 49% 4 43% 39% 36% JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS TOTAL UNDECIDED LULA MARINA SILVA CIRO GOMES GERALDO ALCKMIN 1% REDUCE LEGAL AGE TO 16ys (from 18) 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 7% 16% 16% 19% 13% 23% 2 IN FAVOR AGAINST 9 87% 82% 81% 79% 79% 74% 73% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER JAIR BOLSONARO GERALDO ALCKMIN ÁLVARO DIAS TOTAL UNDECIDED MARINA SILVA LULA CIRO GOMES 28

29 Major Themes by Candidate MILITARY INTERVENTION MICRODATA SPECIAL 7% 14% 12% 8% 14% 8% 52% 48% 51% 57% 5 63% 69% IN FAVOR AGAINST 63% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 38% 38% 37% 3 32% 27% 24% JAIR BOLSONARO TOTAL UNDECIDED GERALDO ALCKMIN MARINA SILVA ÁLVARO DIAS LULA CIRO GOMES SAME SEX MARRIAGE 11% 12% 13% 12% 27% 27% 36% 39% 44% 46% 51% 57% IN FAVOR 41% AGAINST 63% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 53% 51% 44% 37% 33% 32% CIRO GOMES MARINA SILVA LULA TOTAL UNDECIDED GERALDO ALCKMIN JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS 29

30 Major Themes by Candidate PRIVATIZATIONS MICRODATA SPECIAL 9% 11% 7% 9% 12% 11% 7% 42% 48% 57% IN FAVOR 64% 63% 66% 69% 83% AGAINST DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 49% 41% 36% 27% 2 23% 21% JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS GERALDO ALCKMIN TOTAL CIRO GOMES UNDECIDED MARINA SILVA LULA GOVT. INTERVENTION IN THE ECONOMY 8% 16% 8% 14% 1 18% 24% % 39% 38% 36% IN FAVOR 3 34% AGAINST 57% 53% 52% 48% 48% 46% 41% 41% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER MARINA SILVA CIRO GOMES JAIR BOLSONARO LULA TOTAL GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED ÁLVARO DIAS 30

31 Major Themes by Candidate PENSION REFORM MICRODATA SPECIAL 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% % 57% 59% 66% IN FAVOR AGAINST 67% DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER 49% 44% 43% 37% 34% 28% GERALDO ALCKMIN JAIR BOLSONARO MARINA SILVA ÁLVARO DIAS TOTAL CIRO GOMES UNDECIDED LULA 31

32 Disclaimer This material was prepared by XP Investimentos ( XPI ). XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this communication. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only. In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979. Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais, políticas e econômicas (IPESPE) which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation. 32

33 GrupoXP June 2018