BRAZIL: ELECTION TRACKER

Transcription

1 BRAZIL: ELECTION TRACKER JANUARY 2018 EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, LATAM MARCELO

2 VOTES TRANSFERENCE: SCENARIO WITHOUT LULA (1 ST ROUND) Most of Lula s voters look undecided with Lula out of the race, but some voters would migrate to other candidates, like Marina Silva (REDE), Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). Voting intentions for presidential election (%) Undecided, null & blank Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) Scenario with Lula Scenario without Lula Ciro Gomes (PDT) Marina Silva (REDE) Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) (*) Minimum and maximum values of voting intention are calculated by the average between best and worst voting intention in each scenario (with Lula and without Lula) Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas January 31,

3 VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENT (2 ND ROUND) If Lula does not run, Marina Silva (REDE), Bolsonaro (PSL), Alckmin (PSDB) and Ciro Gomes (PDT) could run in the 2 nd Round, according to the last polls (%) 34 (%) Would you vote in someone former president Lula indicates? no maybe yes Alckmin (PSDB) Bolsonaro (PSL) Oct/13 Apr/14 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Jan/18 (%) (%) Alckmin (PSDB) Ciro Gomes (PDT) Marina Silva (REDE) Bolsonaro (PSL) Apr/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 January 31,

4 BOLSONARO (PSL) WHO IS HE? Jair Messias Bolsonaro is a former army officer. He has been a member the Chamber of Deputies since Bolsonaro was the most-voted congressman in the state of Rio de Janeiro in Bolsonaro has been known for controversial views on social issues, and is often described in the media as pro-gun, anti-gay. Bolsonaro is considered to be an outsider pre-candidate. Recent spontaneous and simulated voting intention polls show his name as a strong potential candidate for the second round. After changing party affiliation several times over the years, recent news indicates that Bolsonaro would be running with the PSL (Liberal Social Party) - still a small party, with low participation in the Lower House: only 3 deputies out of 513, or just 0.6%. Bolsonaro, who? He has the highest number of likes on Facebook. among pre-candidates, with strong views on issues like gun control, prison riots or gay rights. Overview Often described as a right-wing extremist with controversial views on social issues, Bolsonaro seems to favour a nationalistic approach on economic issues. Despite his social media popularity, his likely small TV and Radio time should limit his public exposure in the campaign. Source: Deputies Chamber, political analysts January 31,

5 CONTENTS This is an interactive menu. Clink on the boxes below to navigate through the file 04 POLLS GENERAL INFO BIOS HISTORICAL SERIES PRESIDENT: 1 ST ROUND CALENDAR PARTIES PSDB REDE PRESIDENT: PRESIDENT: 2 ND ROUND TV AND RADIO TIME PSL / LIVRES PT PDT APPROVAL RATES SENATE COMPOSITION POLITICAL REFORM DEM PPS OTHER CONGRESS / SENATE POLLS METHODOLOGY CANDIDATES G. ALCKMIN M. SILVA COMPOSITION VOTERS PROFILE TEAM PUBLICATIONS ON POLITICS BREAKING NEWS LATEST POLLS LULA J. BOLSONARO J. DORIA To return to this menu, click on the menu F. HADDAD icon; to J. WAGNER navigate through L.HUCK slides, click on the arrows H. MEIRELLES M. D ÁVILA OTHER ELECTIONS CHANGES January 31,

6 CONTENTS POLLS GENERAL INFO BIOS HISTORICAL SERIES PRESIDENT: 1 ST ROUND CALENDAR PARTIES PSDB REDE PRESIDENT: PRESIDENT: 2 ND ROUND TV AND RADIO TIME PSL / LIVRES PT PDT APPROVAL RATES SENATE COMPOSITION POLITICAL REFORM DEM PPS OTHER CONGRESS / SENATE POLLS METHODOLOGY CANDIDATES G. ALCKMIN M. SILVA COMPOSITION VOTERS PROFILE BREAKING NEWS LULA J. BOLSONARO J. DORIA ELECTIONS CHANGES TEAM PUBLICATIONS ON POLITICS LATEST POLLS F. HADDAD J. WAGNER L.HUCK H. MEIRELLES M. D ÁVILA OTHER January 31,

7 01. POLLS January 31,

8 SPONTANEOUS VOTING INTENTION (1 ST ROUND) VOTING PROSPECTS (%) Rise of outliers in surveys is common in the early stages of the campaign Higher spontaneous voting intentions has put Bolsonaro (PSL) in the spotlight Lula (PT) Bolsonaro (PSL) Ciro Gomes (PDT) Marina Silva (REDE) -2.5 Jul/16 Dec/16 Apr/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas January 31,

9 VOTES TRANSFERENCE: SCENARIO WITHOUT LULA (1 ST ROUND) Most of Lula s voters look undecided with Lula out of the race, but some voters would migrate to other candidates, like Marina Silva (REDE), Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). Voting intentions for presidential election (%) Undecided, null & blank Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) Scenario with Lula Scenario without Lula Ciro Gomes (PDT) Marina Silva (REDE) Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) (*) Minimum and maximum values of voting intention are calculated by the average between best and worst voting intention in each scenario (with Lula and without Lula) Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas January 31,

10 POTENTIAL ELECTORATE VOTING PROSPECTS (%) Lula (PT) shows a high floor ( assured votes) but also a low ceiling (high rejection) of voter intentions Lesser-known candidates have room to attract potential voters Corruption scandals could weigh on disapproval ratings of traditional politicians Lula (PT) Marina Silva (REDE) Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) Aécio Neves (PSDB) Ciro Gomes (PDT) Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) João Doria (PSDB) WOULD VOTE FOR SURE COULD VOTE DON'T KNOW ENOUGH WOULDN T VOTE ANYWAY Apr/17 Source: Ibope, BNP Paribas January 31,

11 REJECTION LEVELS VOTING PROSPECTS High level of rejection among all candidates Lula (PT), has the highest rejection level among the main potential candidates Lula (PT) Bolsonaro (PSL) Alckmin (PSDB) Luciano Huck (w/o party) Marina Silva (REDE) Ciro Gomes (PDT) Doria (PSDB) (%) Jan/18 Source: Datafolha Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas January 31,

12 REJECTION LEVELS VOTING PROSPECTS Increasing rejection level over time Potential presidential candidates have seen their rejection levels increase over time. In part, increased rejection for Lula (PT) may be related to accusations of wrong-doing in the car-wash investigations. Marina Silva (2010) 17% (2018) 23% Geraldo Alckmin (2006) 26% (2018) 26% Lula (2002) 29% (2018) 40% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas January 31,

13 VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENT (2 ND ROUND) If Lula does not run, Marina Silva (REDE), Bolsonaro (PSL), Alckmin (PSDB) and Ciro Gomes (PDT) could run in the 2 nd Round, according to the last polls (%) 34 (%) Would you vote in someone former president Lula indicates? no maybe yes Alckmin (PSDB) Bolsonaro (PSL) Oct/13 Apr/14 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Jan/18 (%) (%) Alckmin (PSDB) Ciro Gomes (PDT) Marina Silva (REDE) Bolsonaro (PSL) Apr/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 January 31,

14 VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENT (2 ND ROUND) Even with high levels of rejection, Lula appears as the favourite in all scenarios That s why it is important to track the latest developments in the car-wash scandal. (%) (%) Lula (PT) Alckmin (PSDB) Lula (PT) Marina Silva (REDE) Nov/15 Jul/16 Dec/16 Apr/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Nov/15 Jul/16 Dec/16 Apr/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 48 (%) (%) Lula (PT) João Doria (PSDB) Lula (PT) Bolsonaro (PSL) Apr/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Apr/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas January 31,

15 SENATE PARTY COMPOSITION Senate PT (7) 2/3 OF SEATS IN THE SENATE ARE UP FOR RENEWAL IN 2018; THE OTHER 1/3 WILL CHANGE IN 2022 Source: Senate, BNP Paribas January 31,

16 POLLS METHODOLOGY Pooling institutes use different methodologies. As a consequence, they may show different results at any given point in time. Datafolha and Ibope are two of the main pooling institutes ST ROUND INSTITUTE BIAS Survey location: Datafolha conducts its interviews in public places. Ibope institute interviews people at their homes. Survey sampling: Datafolha conducts most of its interviews in urban centers Ibope tries to follow the latest available census data in order to track the broader voting population ND ROUND INSTITUTE BIAS Beyond differences between the pooling institutes, it is more useful to look at common trends among them. Source: Ibope, Datafolha, PollingData, BNP Paribas. Institute bias shows deviation of pools from average polls outcomes in the 2014 election. January 31,

17 VOTERS PROFILE: EDUCATION, INCOME AND AGE 4% 10>= wages 21% 45% 33% Education level University degree High school Basic education 11% 39% 43% Average income 5-10 wages 2-5 wages <2 wages to 59 22% 60 or more 15% AGE & GENDER 35 to 44 19% 16 to 24 22% 25 to 34 23% 48 Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas January 31,

18 VOTERS PROFILE: INTERNET ACCESS LEVELS (%) Houses without internet access Houses with internet access only through other equipments Houses with internet access through pc * Source: IBGE (PNAD), BNP Paribas (*) The survey started to include the question about internet access through other equipment January 31,

19 VOTERS PROFILE: INTERNET ACCESS LEVELS (EFFECTS) FOR PEOPLE OFFLINE FOR PEOPLE ONLINE ELECTORAL ADVERTISEMENT ON TV AND RADIO is essential. For people without internet access, usually lower-income individuals, TV or radio are often the main source of information. 42.2% of Brazilians had no access to the internet in 2015, a significant number of voters. the role of SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISEMENT should continue to rise. People with internet access tend to have access to more information while researching the profiles of candidates. 57.8% of Brazilians had access to the internet in January 31,

20 VOTERS PROFILE: SOCIAL MEDIA POPULARITY 17.6 Facebook popularity (million followers on official page) Luciano Huck Jair Bolsonaro Lula João Doria Marina Silva Geraldo Alckmin Manuela D'Ávila Fernando Haddad João Amoêdo Ciro Gomes Jacques Wagner as of 5/Dec/17 January 31,

21 VOTERS PROFILE: GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION BRAZIL: DEMOGRAPHIC DENSITY VOTER PER REGION SHARE C-W 8% N 8% SE 43% NE 27% S 15% Municipality size < 50 thousand hab 30% thousand hab 22% thousand hab 16% > 500 thousand hab 33% Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW PEOPLE VOTED IN EACH STATE January 31,

22 VOTERS PROFILE: ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST HOW BRAZILIANS THINK ABOUT 100% 80% Opinion questions ECONOMICS, BEHAVIOUR AND 60% 40% THE COUNTRY?* Main problems of the country 40% 20% 0% Guns legalisation 43% Prohibition of drug use 80% Homosexuality should be accepted 74% Belief in God makes people better 83% 30% 100% Economic questions 80% 20% 60% 10% 0% Corruption 32% Health 17% Unemployment 16% Violence 6% Education 6% 40% 20% 0% Cause of poverty is lack of opportunity 77% Sindicates do not really defend in fact the worker 58% Labour laws protect workers more than they hurt companies 53% Government should be the main authority responsible for investment and growth 76% Source: Datafolha (July/2016), BNP Paribas (*) % that agree with the propositions January 31,

23 VOTERS PROFILE: ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST WHAT BRAZILIANS THINK ABOUT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION?* In favour Against Source: Datafolha, BNP Paribas (*) % that agree with the propositions January 31,

24 02. GENERAL INFO January 31,

25 2018 ELECTION CALENDAR 01 Registration of opinion surveys at Electoral Justice, by research institutes, becomes mandatory From 06/March to 06/April Period for elective office holders to change their parties without risks of losing office 31- Beginning of Election Campaign on TV and Radio* 15- Beginning of Election Propaganda for the first round 15- Deadline for subscription of candidates at Electoral Justice 28 Elections (2 nd Round) 25 Last day of electoral propaganda, including TV and Radio (for the 2 nd round) 2018 January March April July August October 06- Deadline for Executive office holders to leave their office 06- Deadline for party affiliation for people interested in being candidates From 20/July to 05/August Period for choosing candidates; party conventions 04 Last day of electoral propaganda, including TV and Radio (for the 1 st round) 07 Elections (1 st Round) January 31,

26 TV AND RADIO TIME TV AND RADIO TIME Electoral TV and Radio programs will begin on 31 August For the first round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 4 October For the second round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 25 October 2 types of programs for the election Large 25-minute program aired three times per week, twice per day Smaller daily insertions spread throughout the day President & Federal Deputy (12 30 minutes each) Senate & State Representative (12 30 minutes each) Tuesday + Thursday + Saturday Media 1st part 2nd part Radio 7:00 AM 12:00 PM TV 1:00 PM 8:30 PM Monday + Wednesday + Friday Media 1st part 2nd part Radio 7:00 AM 12:00 PM TV 1:00 PM 8:30 PM January 31,

27 TV AND RADIO TIME TV AND RADIO TIME 1 st round share 10% of the time will be equally divided among the presidential candidates 90% of the time will be divided in proportion to the candidate s coalition size in the Lower House (sum of the six largest parties of the coalition) 2 nd round share 50% for each candidate of a 10-minute advertisement daily TV and Radio time 10% 1'15'' 12min and 30sec for each office Divided in proportion of the candidate's coalition size 90% 11'15'' 1 ST ROUND Equally divided among the presidential candidates 50% 5' 10min for each office Equally divided among the candidates 50% 5 2 ND ROUND January 31,

28 ELECTORAL ADVERTISEMENT TV AND RADIO TIME (minutes per day) Daily electoral TV and Radio programs will begin on 31 August For the first round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 4 October For the second round, the electoral advertisement finishes on 25 October TV AND RADIO TIME (minutes per day) forecast for TV and radio time in 2018 (this should change due to coalition formation) Other 22% PRB 4% PTB 4% PDT 5% DEM 5% PR 6% PSB 6% PT 13% 1 ST ROUND PP 7% PSD 7% PMDB 11% PSDB 10% Candidate 2 50% 2 ND ROUND Candidate 1 50% Source: TSE (2014), LCA Consultores January 31,

29 POLITICAL REFORM MINIMAL PERFORMANCE FOR ADS ON TV & RADIO COALITIONS CAMPAIGN FUNDS Previous Rules in 2018 Rules in 2020 none 1.5% of total valid votes; 1.0% of the votes in at least nine states; or elected at least nine congressmen in at least nine states. 1.5% of total valid votes (increasing by 0.5% in each election until 3.0% in 2030); 1.0% of the votes in at least nine states (1.5% in 2026 and 2.0% by 2030); or elected at least nine congressmen in at least nine states (increasing 2 per year until 15 in 2030). Previous Rules in 2018 Rules in 2020 seat distribution depends on the votes for party coalitions seat distribution depends on the votes for party coalitions (no change from previous rules) seat distribution depends on the votes for each single party (rather than votes for party coalitions). Previous Rules in 2018 Rules in 2020 private donations by individuals are allowed (private by companies were prohibited by the Supreme Court in 2015) private donations by individuals; public funds with resources foreseen in the budget (30% of politicians amendments or BRL1.4bn in 2018); spending ceiling for campaigns. private donations by individuals; public funds with resources foreseen in the budget; spending ceiling for campaigns. Source: Lower House, Senate January 31,

30 03. BIOS January 31,

31 MAIN PARTIES January 31,

32 PARTIES IN THE GAME PT PDT REDE PSDB PSL OTHER Left-wing The party has some options with regard to choice of candidate, but the most likely is Lula. Alternatives are Fernando Haddad and Jaques Wagner. Centre-left PDT could announce Ciro Gomes as its candidate for the presidential elections in Centre-left Marina Silva is the most likely to run as the REDE party s candidate. Centre-right Recent trends indicate that Geraldo Alckmin is the most likely person to run for elections. An alternative is João Doria. Right-wing PSL should announce Bolsonaro as its candidate for the presidential elections in DEM: right-wing PPS: centre-left PMDB: centre PCdoB: far-left NOVO: Right-wing January 31,

33 PARTIES IN THE GAME PCDOB (COMMUNIST PARTY OF BRAZIL) PCdoB Far-left PCdoB chose Manuela D Ávila as pre-candidate; her popularity is significant in the southern region of the country. PCdoB: Partido Comunista do Brasil Communist Party of Brazil Founded: 1958 Far-left TSE Identification number: 65 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 1 / 81 (1.2%) Chamber of Deputies: 12 / 513 (2.3%) Governors: 1 / 27 (3.7%) Local government: 81 / 5566 (1.5%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

34 PARTIES IN THE GAME PT (WORKERS PARTY) PT Left-wing The party has some options with regard to the choice of candidate, but the most likely seems Lula. Alternatives are Fernando Haddad and Jaques Wagner. PT: Partido dos Trabalhadores Workers Party Founded: 1980 Left-wing TSE Identification number: 13 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 9 / 81 (11.1%) Chamber of Deputies: 57 / 513 (11.1%) Governors: 5 / 27 (18.5%) Local government: 254 / 5566 (4.6%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

35 PARTIES IN THE GAME PDT (DEMOCRATIC LABOUR PARTY) PDT Centre-left PDT could name Ciro Gomes as its candidate for the 2018 presidential elections. PDT: Partido Democrático Trabalhista Democratic Labour Party Founded: 1979 Centre-left TSE Identification number: 12 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 2 / 81 (2.5%) Chamber of Deputies: 19 / 513 (3.7%) Governors: 0 / 27 (0%) Local government: 0 / 5566 (0%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

36 PARTIES IN THE GAME REDE (SUSTAINABILITY NETWORK) REDE Centre-left Marina Silva is the most likely to run as the REDE party s candidate. REDE: Rede Sustentabilidade Sustainability Network Party Founded: 2013 Centre-left TSE Identification number: 18 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 1 / 81 (1.2%) Chamber of Deputies: 4 / 513 (0.8%) Governors: 0 / 27 (0%) Local government: 0 / 5566 (0%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

37 PARTIES IN THE GAME PPS (SOCIALIST PEOPLE S PARTY) PPS Centre-left PPS has indicated efforts to invite Luciano Huck as a candidate PPS: Partido Popular Socialista Socialist People s Party Founded: 1992 Centre-left TSE Identification number: 23 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 1 / 81 (1.2%) Chamber of Deputies: 9 / 513 (1.8%) Governors: 0 / 27 (0%) Local government: 0 / 5566 (0%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

38 PARTIES IN THE GAME MDB (BRAZILIAN DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT) MDB Centre X MDB: Movimento Democrático Brasileiro Brazilian Democratic Movement SENATE SHARE PMDB seems unlikely to have a candidate, but its role in coalitions is key due to its influence in the Senate, Congress and local government Founded: 1965 Centre TSE Identification number: 15 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 22 / 81 (27.2%) Chamber of Deputies: 64 / 513 (12.5%) Governors: 7 / 27 (25.9%) CONGRESS SHARE Local government: 1022 / 5566 (18.4%) January 31,

39 PARTIES IN THE GAME CENTRÃO CENTRÃO Centre / Centre-right X Centrão : PR, PP, PRB, PTB, PSD Great centre Founded: - SENATE SHARE Diversified, average on centre A group of parties are qualified as great centre. TSE Identification number: various Houses composition and government* Federal Senate: 19 / 81 (23.5%%) CONGRESS SHARE Chamber of Deputies: 163 / 513 (31.8%) Governors: 3 / 27 (11.1%) Local government: 1695 / 5566 (30.5%) (*) Includes: PR, PP, PRB, PTB and PSD January 31,

40 PARTIES IN THE GAME PSDB (BRAZILIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRACY PARTY) PSDB Centre-right Recent trends indicate that Geraldo Alckmin seems the most likely person to run for elections. An alternative is João Doria. PSDB: Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira Party of Brazilian Social Democracy Founded: 1998 Centre-right TSE Identification number: 45 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 11 / 81 (13.6%) Chamber of Deputies: 51 / 513 (9.9%) Governors: 6 / 27 (22.2%) Local government: 793 / 5566 (14.3%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

41 PARTIES IN THE GAME PSL / LIVRES (SOCIAL LIBERAL PARTY) PSL Right-wing PSL should announce Bolsonaro as its candidate for the presidential elections in PSL / LIVRES Social Liberal Party / Free Founded: 1998 Right-wing TSE Identification number: 17 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 0 / 81 (0%) Chamber of Deputies: 3 / 513 (0.6%) Governors: 0 / 27 (0%) Local government: 0 / 5566 (0%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

42 PARTIES IN THE GAME DEM (DEMOCRATS) DEM Right-wing Centre DEM has indicated that it could invite Luciano Huck as a candidate DEM: Democratas Democrats Founded: 1985 Right-wing TSE Identification number: 25 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 4 / 81 (4.9%) Chamber of Deputies: 29 / 513 (5.7%) Governors: 1 / 27 (3.7%) Local government: 278 / 5566 (5.0%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

43 PARTIES IN THE GAME NOVO (NEW PARTY) NOVO Right-wing NOVO should make its debut in the elections with João Amoêdo, founder and former president of the party. NOVO: Partido Novo New Party Founded: 2011 Right-wing TSE Identification number: 30 Houses composition and government Federal Senate: 0 / 81 (0%) Chamber of Deputies: 0 / 513 (0%) Governors: 0 / 27 (0%) Local government: 0 / 5566 (0%) SENATE SHARE CONGRESS SHARE January 31,

44 POTENTIAL CANDIDATES January 31,

45 LULA (PT) political background 150% Member of Chamber of Deputies (SP) Potential candidate President of Workers Party President of Brazil birth Caetés, Pernambuco age 72 academic background Basic level POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 3 million likes party PT (Workers Party) Left-wing party January 31,

46 LULA (PT) LULA LOSES APPEAL 24-January. April August. 15-August. September - October Appeals Court TRF4 On 24 January 2018, the Appeals Court upheld the corruption conviction against former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula was earlier found guilty of money laundering and passive corruption charges in an investigation relating to the Operation car wash scandal. A panel of three judges reviewed the decision and decided to unanimously uphold it. One important consequence is that, while Lula can appeal the decision in the higher courts, he is now considered ineligible for October s presidential election. Sentenced to 12y and 1m in jail and a payment of BRL1.01mn Brazil: Lula loses appeal Source: Political analysts, BNP Paribas Appealing Following TRF4 s decision, Mr. Lula can appeal to the: Superior Court (STJ) Supreme Court (STF) Former President Lula s defence could ask both courts to review his conviction. The unanimous decision though would suggest that the top courts are unlikely to suspend the TRF4 s ruling. Overview Registration deadline Electoral law allows Lula to start campaigning even though he is ineligible. Despite being found guilty, Lula can seek to register himself as a candidate up until 15 August. Each candidate receives a temporary permit to start the official campaign while the Electoral Court assesses eligibility. Invalidating candidate Another important deadline is 17 September this is the date for any party to substitute candidates. If the final decision on Lula s candidacy takes longer than that, there is a risk for the Worker s Party (PT) ending without a candidate. The first round of the election is scheduled to take place on 7October, with second round (run-off) scheduled for 21 October. The prospects for Mr. Lula s candidacy now look dim, given recent developments at the Appeals Court. The TRF s 3x0 unanimous ruling makes a possible reversal of the decision in the higher courts unlikely, in our view. January 31,

47 JOÃO DORIA (PSDB) political background 150% Embratur s President Potential candidate Municipal Secretary o f Tourism in São Paulo academic background Bachelor in Business Management, Journalism and Advertising from the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation Mayor of São Paulo birth São Paulo, São Paulo age 60 POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 2.7 million likes party PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) Centre / Centre-right party January 31,

48 ALCKMIN (PSDB) political background Member of a Municipal Chamber Mayor of Pindamonhangaba Member of the São Paulo Legislative Assembly Member of the Chamber of Deputies Vice Governor of São Paulo academic background Bachelor in Medicine from the University of Medicine of Taubaté Specialisation in Anaesthesiology from the Medical Assistance to Public Server Institute Secretary of Development of São Paulo Governor of state of São Paulo Potential candidate % birth Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo age 65 POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 0.8 million likes party PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) Centre / Centre-right party January 31,

49 MARINA SILVA (REDE) political background 150% Alderwoman of Rio Branco Senator from Acre Senator from Acre Potential candidate State Deputy of Acre Minister of the Environment birth Rio Branco, Acre age 60 academic background Bachelor in History from the Federal University of Acre POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 2.3 million likes party REDE (Sustainability Network) Centre-left party January 31,

50 JAIR BOLSONARO (PSL) political background 150% Alderman of Rio de Janeiro Potential candidate Military career academic background Preparatory School of the Brazilian Army Federal Deputy from Rio de Janeiro birth Campinas, São Paulo age 62 POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 4.9 million likes party Likely to leave PSC and affiliate to PSL/Livres Right-wing party January 31,

51 LUCIANO HUCK (DEM) political background 150% TV-show host Potential candidate 2018 birth São Paulo, São Paulo age 46 academic background Bachelor in Law from the University of São Paulo Bachelor in Journalism from the University of São Paulo POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 17.5 million likes party Not defined yet, but there is a strong possibility he could represent the DEM or PPS right-wing (DEM); centre-left (PPS) January 31,

52 JAQUES WAGNER (PT) political background Minister of Labour and Employment of Brazil Governor of Bahia State Secretary of Economic Development (BA) Potential candidate 150% Federal Deputy of Bahia Chief-minister of the Institutional Relations Office Defense Minister Chief of Staff of the Presidency birth Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro age 66 academic background Bachelor in Civil Engineering from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (incomplete) POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 0.1 million likes party PT (Workers Party) Left-wing party January 31,

53 CIRO GOMES (PDT) political background 150% Member of legislative Assembly Governor of Ceará Minister of National Integration Potential candidate Mayor of Fortaleza Minister of Finance Member of Chamber of Deputies (Ceará) birth Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo age 60 academic background Bachelor in Economics from Harvard Law School Bachelor in Law from Federal University of Ceará POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 0.1 million likes party PDT (Democratic Labour Party) Left-wing party January 31,

54 FERNANDO HADDAD (PT) political background 150% Minister of Education Potential candidate Mayor of São Paulo academic background Bachelor in Law from the University of São Paulo Masters in Economics from the University of São Paulo Doctorate in Philosophy from the University of São Paulo birth Campinas, São Paulo age 55 POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 0.3 million likes party PT (Workers Party) Left-wing party January 31,

55 HENRIQUE MEIRELLES (PSD) political background 150% President of the Central Bank Potential candidate Federal Deputy from Goiás Minister of Finance birth Anápolis, Goiás age 72 academic background Bachelor in Civil Engineering from the University of São Paulo MBA in Business Administration from Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Advanced Management Program from Harvard Business School POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA without facebook party PSD (Social Democratic Party) Centre party January 31,

56 MANUELA D ÁVILA (PCDOB) political background 150% Federal deputy of Rio Grande do Sul Potential candidate today Alderwoman of Porto Alegre State deputy of Rio Grande do Sul birth Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul age 36 academic background Bachelor in Journalism from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul Bachelor in Social Sciences from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (incomplete) POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 0.3 million likes party PCdoB (Communist Party of Brazil) Far-left January 31,

57 JOÃO AMOÊDO (NOVO) political background 150% NOVO party founder Potential candidate President of NOVO party academic background Bachelor in Business Management from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro Bachelor in Civil Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro birth Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro age 55 POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA > 0.1 million likes party NOVO (New Party) Right-wing January 31,

58 JOAQUIM BARBOSA (WITHOUT PARTY) political background 150% Minister of the Supreme Federal Court Potential candidate 2018 birth Paracatu, Minas Gerais age 63 academic background Bachelor in Law from the University of Brasília Master in Law from Université de Paris II Doctorate in Law from Université de Paris II POPULARITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA without facebook? party Does not have a party yet, but his popularity since his decisive action in the Mensalão scandal is very high January 31,

59 04. HISTORICAL SERIES January 31,

60 APPROVAL AND DIAPPROVAL RATINGS APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL RATING OF FEDERAL ADMINISTRATION Disapproval rating of current president Temer s administration is high FHC 2 Lula Dilma Temer Feb-99 Feb-01 Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 January 31,

61 CONGRESS AND SENATE CURRENT COMPOSITION CONGRESS SENATE Source: Congress, Senate, BNP Paribas January 31,

62 GEOGRAPHICAL VOTING DISTRIBUTION IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS 2 nd ROUND ELECTIONS Lula (PT) Serra (PSDB) Lula (PT) Alckmin (PSDB) Dilma (PT) Serra (PSDB) Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas January 31,

63 GEOGRAPHICAL VOTING DISTRIBUTION IN THE 2014 ELECTION 2 nd ROUND ELECTIONS: 2014 Source: Datafolha (Sep/2017), BNP Paribas January 31,

64 RECENT PUBLICATIONS ON POLITICS [1 MIN] VIDEO: LATAM OVERVIEW: GOING TO THE POLLS Brazil: Election Tracker Colombia: Election Tracker Mexico: Election Tracker Brazil: 2018 election roadmap Mexico: 2018 election roadmap Colombia: 2018 election roadmap Chile s election: Back to the future Brazil: Lula loses appeal January 31,

65 LATAM ECONOMICS RESEARCH TEAM AT BNP PARIBAS Marcelo Carvalho Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam (55 11) Gustavo Arruda Brazil (55 11) Florencia Vazquez Argentina and Chile (54 11) Luiz Eduardo Peixoto Colombia and Mexico (55 11) Follow us on January 31,

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67 Disclaimer (2/6) This document is only intended to generate discussion regarding particular products and investments and is subject to change or may be discontinued. We are willing to discuss it with you on the understanding that you have sufficient knowledge, experience and professional advice to understand and make your own independent evaluation of the merits and risk of the information and any proposed structures. The information contained herein is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada, the U.S. or any other province or territory nor shall it be deemed to provide investment, tax, accounting or other advice. Transactions involving the product(s) described in this document may involve a high degree of risk and the value of such transactions may be highly volatile. 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