Boosting Sustainable Economic Growth in Mexico. Manuel Sánchez
|
|
- Willa Burns
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Manuel Sánchez World Affairs Council of Houston Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston, Texas, November 1, 2012
2 Contents 1 Current economic rebound 2 Outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Concluding remarks 2
3 Since the middle of 2009, Mexico has been experiencing a process of continuous economic recovery h 2012 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Gross Domestic Product yoy change, % Global Economic Activity 2003=100; s.a Total Industry Services * */ Yearly average Source: INEGI s. a. / seasonally adjusted Source: INEGI 3
4 The current upturn has been balanced, including domestic fixed investment and consumption Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Investment 2007 = 100; s.a. 120 Retail Sales 2007 = 100; s.a s.a. / Seasonally and trend-adjusted Source: Mexico s National Accounts System, INEGI s.a. / Seasonally and trend-adjusted Source: Commercial establishment survey, INEGI 4
5 The domestic economic rebound has been possible thanks to Mexico s macroeconomic fundamentals Contained public debt with rising average maturity Relatively low inflation Well-capitalized, provisioned, and liquid banking system 5
6 A positive feedback loop has emerged between labor market developments, bank lending and consumer spending Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Employment and Unemployment * Million workers 16 s.a. Unemployment (right) % EAP 7 Consumer Bank Performing Loans 2007= Employment (left) */ Workers insured by the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) and unemployed people relative to Economically Active Population (EAP) s.a. / Seasonally adjusted Source: IMSS and INEGI Source: Banco de México 6
7 Extraordinary support has been provided by external conditions, particularly from advanced countries On the surface this may sound contradictory Two positive factors Demand for Mexican exports Unusually favorable financing conditions 7
8 Manufacturing exports have been increasing, although with some recent moderation Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Manufacturing Exports by Destination 2007=100; s.a. Total U.S. Others Industrial Production * 2007=100; a. e. U.S. Mexico s.a. / Seasonally and trend-adjusted Source: Banco de México s.a. / Seasonally adjusted */ U.S. and Mexico's correlation is close to 0.9 Source: INEGI 8
9 Monetary easing abroad has translated into domestic interest rates at or close to all-time lows Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 1-day 1-month 3-months 6-months 1-year 5-years 7-years 10-years 20-years 30-years Foreign Holdings of Peso Government Bonds % of Local Government Bonds held by Foreigners in EM * Yield Curve % / Include Brazil, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Thailand and Turkey Source: Barclays */ October 26, 2012 Source: Banco de México 9
10 The most serious risk associated with capital inflows is not the ever-present possibility of a reversal A sudden stop may occur for reasons not exclusively related to the recipient country The most serious risk is ignoring the likelihood of the event Financial crises emerge because people assume that easy credit will last forever Possible capital reversal calls for prudence 10
11 Contents 1 Current economic rebound 2 Outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Concluding remarks 11
12 The base-case scenario for Mexico s economic outlook assumes the continuation of favorable external conditions GDP Outlook Growth, % F 2013 F World United States Euro zone China Brazil Mexico F/ Forecast Source: Consensus Forecasts, Latin America Consensus Forecasts and Asia Consensus Forecasts; October
13 Significant external risks relate to the developments in the United States and Europe United States Risks The Fiscal Cliff could lead to a fall of 0.3% in GDP in As industrial production in the U.S. slows, the impact on the Mexican economy could be significant 2 Europe The difficulty in resolving underlying problems could generate new bouts of volatility and risk aversion 1/ Congressional Budget Office (2012) An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022, August 2/ For an estimate of the possible impact of U.S. industrial production on Mexican exports, see Garcés, D. (2002) Análisis de las Funciones de Importación y Exportación de México, Documento de investigación No. 12, Banco de México, December. 13
14 Contents 1 Current economic rebound 2 Outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Concluding remarks 14
15 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Annual inflation has been rising mainly as a result of agricultural price pressures Consumer Price Index Annual; % Headline Non-core */ First half Source: INEGI * 15
16 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 However, core inflation has also been increasing Core Price Indices Annual; % Core Core Merchandise Core Services */ First half Source: INEGI * 16
17 Monetary policy will have to be adjusted in a timely way if convergence of inflation to the 3% target is endangered Need to evaluate whether current price pressures are transitory Two sources of risk should be especially monitored Amplification of second-round effects from external shocks Aggregate demand pressures The most essential challenge continues to be the anchoring of inflation expectations on the 3% permanent target 17
18 Contents 1 Current economic rebound 2 Outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Concluding remarks 18
19 Concluding remarks The ongoing economic recovery does not imply that the economy is growing at rates that are sufficient to meet social needs or exploit potential opportunities Mexico needs to consolidate macroeconomic stability Additionally, total factor productivity growth should be facilitated Considerable efficiency gains seem possible in the services sector and in non manufacturing industries Remove obstacles in order to reduce informality and facilitate competition 19
20 Mejoran las perspectivas económicas mundiales 20
Mexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2015 Contents 1 Moderate economic growth 2 Waiting for the liftoff 3 Taming inflation 2 Since 2014, Mexico s economic recovery
More informationMexico s monetary policy and economic outlook. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Los Angeles, CA, November 15, 2013 Monetary policy and economic outlook themes Output slowdown and signs of an incipient rebound More stringent
More informationMexico: Economic integration, challenges and outlook Manuel Sánchez. United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Los Angeles August 5, 2016
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Los Angeles August 5, 2016 Contents 1 Economic integration with the U.S. 2 Growth and financial developments 3 Monetary policy and inflation 2 Mexico
More informationMonetary Policy Outlook for Mexico
Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 8 October 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 Monetary Policy in Mexico Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation
More informationForces and threats to Mexico s economic recovery. Remarks by. Manuel Sánchez. at the. New York, N.Y.
Forces and threats to Mexico s economic recovery Remarks by Manuel Sánchez Member of the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico at the The United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce New York, N.Y. September
More informationThe Mexican Economy: Now and in the Future
Manuel Sánchez BBVA Investor conference "LATAM: Growth at your fingertips" Milan, Italy, May 10 2012 Index 1 Structural strengths 2 Recent developments and outlook 3 Long term opportunities 4 Consolidation
More informationMexico s Economic Policy under External Constraints. Manuel Sánchez, Member of the Board
Manuel Sánchez, Member of the Board Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, June 27, 2012 Contents 1 Monetary Policy and Capital Inflows 2 Implications of European Uncertainty 3 Economic Developments
More informationMexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document
More informationThe Future of Mexican Monetary Policy
The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Mexico Summit Mexico City, 2 March 2017 */ The views expressed herein are strictly personal.
More informationInflation Report. April June 2013
April June 2013 August 7, 2013 1 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationInflation Report. January March 2013
January March 2013 May 8, 2013 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment
More informationInflation Report. July September 2012
July September 1 November 7, 1 1 Outline 1 External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions The growth rate
More informationQuarterly Report. July September 2014
July September November 19, Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 4 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 Monetary Policy Conduction By constitutional
More informationQuarterly Report. October December 2014
October December February 18, 2015 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 4 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 Recent Evolution of Inflation
More informationWhat Mexico s economy confronts. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor
Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, July 2, 2014 Contents 1 The return of market optimism 2 Mexico s cyclical recovery 3 Structural challenges 2 International
More informationRecent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico
Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Northeast Chapter New York City, 2 June 2017
More informationQuarterly Report. July - September 2016 November 23, 2016
Quarterly Report July - September November 23, Outline 1 Monetary Policy 2 External Conditions 3 Evolution of the Mexican Economy 4 Inflation and its Determinants 5 Forecasts and Final Remarks Quarterly
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2015
April June August 12, 1 1 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks April-June 2 Monetary Policy Conduction in
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2014
April June August 1, 1 Outline 1 Monetary Policy External Conditions 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks Monetary Policy Conduction Monetary policy has focused
More informationMexico s Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
Mexico s Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, California Regional Chapter Los Angeles, November 16 th,
More informationMexico s Economic Outlook and Challenges. Remarks by. Manuel Sánchez. Member of the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico. at the
Mexico s Economic Outlook and Challenges Remarks by Manuel Sánchez Member of the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico at the Conference Regulatory Reform, the Global Economic Outlook, and the Implications
More informationMonetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México JP Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 1 October 214 1 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Monetary Policy in 214-15 a. The External Environment b. Domestic
More informationQuarterly Report April June 2017 August 30th, 2017
Quarterly Report April June August th, Outline 1 Monetary Policy and Inflation External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Forecasts and Final Remarks Quarterly Report April - June 1 Conduction
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationQuarterly Report. July-September 2015
July-September November 0, 1 1 Outline 1 Monetary Policy External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks July September Monetary Policy Conduction
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number
More informationMexico GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Mexico The Mexican economy continued to perform well in 1999. Economic activity rebounded from a slowdown that occurred in the last quarter of 1998 that reflected uncertainty in international capital markets
More informationQuarterly Report January - March 2016 May 25, 2016
May 25, Outline 1 Monetary Policy 2 External Conditions 3 Inflation and its Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 Inflation has registered a favorable performance, despite a challenging environment.
More informationOutlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018
Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México April, Outline 1 External Conditions Current Outlook.1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants in Mexico Evolution of Economic Activity Recent
More informationPoland s Economic Prospects
Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real
More informationECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER Statistical tables
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER 2005 APPENDIX Appendix Statistical tables The world economy Table a1 GDP at constant prices a2 Industrial production a3 Consumer prices a4 External current account
More informationINFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts
INFLATION REPORT March 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 March 2016 International environment Public Monetary
More informationPeru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru October 2016 Content 1. Slow Global Recovery 5. Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus 2. Reversal in Peru s external
More informationMexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund BACKGROUND Growth in Economic Activity and Employment Have Remained Stable
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized
More informationIndonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic
More informationMexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018
Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Slow and halting progress Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group October, 22, 2012 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive May/June financial turmoil
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationOutlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean. Saul Lizondo. Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund
Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean Saul Lizondo Associate Director Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Trinidad id d and Tobago, September, 1 Presentation
More informationCountry Risk Analytics
Emerging Markets Country Risk Analytics MacroFinance Research Quarterly - 2018 Q2 www.taceconomics.com www.taceconomics.com 2 Country Risk Analytics EM Quarterly MacroFinance Research 2018 Q2 Description
More information2008 CRISIS : COLD OR CANCER?
2008 CRISIS : COLD OR CANCER? MARTIAL FOUCAULT Université de Montréal 28 juin 2010 1 Plan of the talk Crisis: what does it mean? The American financial crisis followed by a worldwide economic crisis Market
More informationRecent developments in the Mexican Peso market. March 2009
Recent developments in the Mexican Peso market March 2009 1 Index 1. The FX market before the financial turmoil 2. What we got right what we missed 3. Structural change in the FX market 4. Final remarks
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationPURSUING SHARED PROSPERITY IN AN ERA OF TURBULENCE AND HIGH COMMODITY PRICES
2012 Key messages Asia-Pacific growth to slow in 2012 amidst global turbulence: Spillovers of the euro zone turmoil Global oil price hikes Excess liquidity and volatile capital flows Key long-term challenge:
More informationPeru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015
Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru September 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2018 August 29th, 2018
Quarterly Report April June August 9th, Outline External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation Monetary Policy Forecasts and Final Remarks Quarterly Report April - June 7 9 9 9 9 9 The
More informationReflections on the Global Economic Outlook
Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook A presentation to the ACI-ICA World Congress October 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Global Megatrends
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
21 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Recession looms for some emerging economies Several major emerging economies struggling with domestically-induced problems are now in, or flirting
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationGLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW
2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW Edward A. Wiese, CFA, Head of Fixed Income November 18, 2015 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Summary Environment Developed market yields
More informationRegional Economic Report October December 2014
Regional Economic Report October December 2014 March 12, 2015 Outline I. Regional Economic Report II. Results October December 2014 A. Economic Activity B. Inflation C. Economic Outlook III. Final Remarks
More informationWorld Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009
World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai
More informationSpillovers from Dollar Appreciation
June 6-7, 216 International Monetary Fund Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation Florence Jaumotte (with J. Chow, S.G. Park, and S. Zhang) Motivation Context: appreciation of US Dollar changing growth differentials,
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationFigure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank s historical forecasting errors and the ability of risk-premium adjusted
More informationThe Global Economy Heightened Risks
The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI Latin American Conference 16 August, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. Latin America Some Improvement
More informationMarch 8 & 12 MORTGAGE LENDING IN MEXICO. Asociación de Bancos de México
March 8 & 12 MORTGAGE LENDING IN MEXICO Asociación de Bancos de México Index 1.The Mexican Banking Sector 2. Mortgage Market in Mexico 3. Outlook and Conclusions 3 Introduction 1. The Mexican economy has
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/17 Key developments and outlook Economic growths in 2016 and 2017 remain close to the previous assessment. Better-than-expected merchandise exports and private consumption compensate for weaker-than-expected
More information2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some
More informationJulio Velarde Governor Central Reserve Bank of Peru Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia October 2011
Monetary Policy Implementation: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years Julio Velarde Governor Central Reserve Bank of Peru Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia October 2011 Content 1. Introductory remarks
More informationPeru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. March 2015
Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3.
More informationNdiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013
Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
1 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Forecasts eased down again as trade remains sluggish We have cut our forecast for China again following weak growth in Q1. We now expect the
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a
More informationCapital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF
Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Felix Huefner Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department Institute of International Finance 1 st Meeting of the COMCEC Financial Cooperation
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationPower of Travel Promotion Evolution
Power of Travel Promotion Evolution Promotion More Important than Ever Power of Promotion $7 million Median state = marketing budget FY 2014-15 OR 45 seconds worth of Super Bowl ads $100 million = Presidential
More informationMUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS
MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS Mexico s Macroeconomic Performance: Q1 218 GDP and Current Monthly Indicators 27 JULY 218 MUFG UNION BANK, N.A. ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK) KAREN MARTINEZ Latin America Economist
More informationWhat is the global economic outlook?
The outlook What is the global economic outlook? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent United States.... Euro area. -. -.. Japan -.... Total OECD....
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17
Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Jul-7 ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)
More informationMexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook?
Mexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook? Rafael Amiel, Director Latin America Economics IHS Global Insight Julio 2013 Mexico becomes fashionable again Mexico Makes
More informationSA Food Inflation Why all the fuss?
SA Food Inflation Why all the fuss? Gina Schoeman Lead SA Economist February/March 211 The Food Map SA CPI Global EM SA CPI Food The Food Story SA SA Retail SA Manu SA Agri 2 Global food inflation Global
More informationWorld Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April
World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing
More informationThe External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationOther similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets
Session 15. Understanding Macroeconomic Crises. Mexican Crisis 1994-95 Other similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets Global Scenarios 2017-2021 The Mexican Peso Crisis in 1994: Background An economy that
More informationEconomy Report - Mexico
Economy Report - Mexico (Extracted from 2001 Economic Outlook) During the last quarter of 2000, the Mexican economy grew at an annual rate of 5.1 percent. Although more moderate than in the first three
More informationMansoor Dailami The World Bank Ankara, Turkey June 22, 2011
Mansoor Dailami The World Bank Ankara, Turkey June 22, 2011 Multipolarity: A New Global Economy A new global economic order is unfolding as the balance of global growth shifts from developed to emerging
More informationBTMU Focus Latin America Mexico: macroeconomic performance Mexico: (1Q 2015)
BTMU Focus Latin America Mexico: macroeconomic performance Mexico: (1Q 1) MUFG UNION BANK Economic Research (New York) Hongrui Zhang Latin America Economist hozhang@us.mufg.jp +1(1)- June, 1 Contents I.
More informationQuarterly report Global and Spanish economy Q Círculo de Empresarios Madrid, April 2017
Quarterly report Global and Spanish economy Q1-217 Círculo de Empresarios Madrid, April 217 217 GDP forecast Global USA 1.6 2.3 216 217 Russia -.2 1.4 216 217 3.1 3.5 1.6 1.7 217 GDP distribution Advanced
More informationeregionaloutlooksincharts
eregionaloutlooksincharts (clickonregion) EastAsiaandPaci c EuropeandCentralAsia LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean MiddleEastandNorthAfrica SouthAsia Sub-SaharanAfrica The Economic Outlook for East Asia and
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook The Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, November 2012 Mangal Goswami Mangal Goswami Deputy Director IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute Action Needed
More informationP R O F E S S I O N A L S O N LY. Milan IFTA Conference "Sailing to the Future" October 2017
P R O F E S S I O N A L S O N LY Milan IFTA Conference "Sailing to the Future" October 2017 Frédéric Leroux Global Fund Manager Head of Cross Asset Team 2 The Importance of Being a Risk Manager 3 Over
More informationFinancial Innovation and the Mexican Experience. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez Capital Market Summit 2014, Shenzhen City, China, November 16, 2014 Contents 1 Global Trends 2 The Mexican Experience 3 Mexico s Challenges 2 Innovation is both a response and a contribution
More informationProspects for inflation and monetary policy
Prospects for inflation and monetary policy Rosanna Costa Board member Central Bank of Chile, December 8 I. Context for the Chilean economy. II. Institutional elements. The role of monetary policy. III.
More informationMUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS
MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS Mexico s Macroeconomic Performance: Q 217 GDP and Current Economic Indicators 1 APRIL 21 MUFG UNION BANK, N.A. ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK) KAREN MARTINEZ Latin America Economist
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3)
KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Autumn 7 Finalized September 6, 7 No. 33 (7 Q3) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, Galina Potjagailo, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center
More informationThe Mexican Economy and Investment Opportunities: Why Mexico? Why Now?
The Mexican Economy and Investment Opportunities: Why Mexico? Why Now? Mexican Private Equity / Venture Capital Industry: Success stories and investment opportunities New York City January 28th, 2011 Why
More information