A few reflections & questions on PES from a citizen working in the private sector

Transcription

1 A few reflections & questions on PES from a citizen working in the private sector Presentation given on the occasion of the Synerjob conference organized by the Forem, VDAB & the EU Laurent Ledoux (ledoux.laurent@gmail.com) Brussels - 01/12/10

2 1 2 3 PES in perspective? PES under pressure? Questions for PES?

3 PES in perspective? GDP & Employment growth 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0-3,5-4,0 BELGIUM : REAL GDP GROWTH (in %) NBB figures BNPP Fortis Forecasts Source : Thomson Financial Datastream 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0-3,5-4,0

4 PES in perspective? GDP & Employment growth 4,0 BELGIUM: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (in %) Figures NBB 4,0 3,0 3,0 2,0 2,0 1,0 1,0 0,0 0,0-1,0-1,0-2,0-2,0-3,0 qoq % annualized yoy % -3,0-4, ,0 Source : Thomson Financial Datastream

5 4,5 PES 4,0 in perspective? GDP & Employment growth 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5 Real GDP Growth (in %) Employment growth (in %) Employment growth (in %) BNPP Fortis Forecasts 2,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,

6 PES in perspective? GDP & Employment growth Time-series analysis in EU Elasticities by country ( ) USA EU Spain Germany UK France Netherlands Austria Source : The relationship between growth, employment and unemployment in the EU Ewald Walterskirchen Austrian Institute of Economic Research

7 PES in perspective? GDP or Indicator for Sustainable Economic Welfare? Belgium Source : I. Cassiers, Revue Nouvelle march 2009, inspired from B. Bleys 7

8 PES in perspective? Diversity at EU level Unemployment rates in the EMU jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 0 Belgium Ireland Spain Germany EMU Source: Datastream

9 PES in perspective? Diversity explained? Source : Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove Fiscal policy, employment by age, and growth in OECD economies Universiteit van Gent

10 PES in perspective? Diversity explained? Source : Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove Fiscal policy, employment by age, and growth in OECD economies Universiteit van Gent

11 PES in perspective? Diversity explained? (Education) CFWB Source: Mc Kinsey

12 PES in perspective? Increasing importance of other actors? Quoted in Private Employement Agencies, temporary agency workers and their contributions to the labour market ILO

13 PES in perspective? Increasing importance of other actors? Quoted in Private Employement Agencies, temporary agency workers and their contributions to the labour market ILO

14 PES in perspective? Increasing importance of other instruments? Source : Nuria Rodriguez Planas Channels through which Public Employment Services & Small-business Assistance Programs work Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (based on data from Romania in )

15 1 2 3 PES in perspective? PES under pressure? Questions for PES?

16 PES under pressure? Increasing public debts Maastricht Limit EMU: PUBLIC DEBT (in % of GDP) European Central Bank figures EIU forecast

17 PES under pressure? Diversity in public debts at EU level EMU GOVERNMENT DEBT IN 2009 (% of GDP) Maastricht Limit: 60% Austria Belgium Spain Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal

18 PES under pressure? Diversity in deficits EMU GOVERNMENT DEFICIT/SURPLUS IN 2009 (% of GDP) Maastricht Limit Belgium Spain France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal

19 PES under pressure? Diversity in public spending ( ) Quoted in KPMG Meeting the deficit challenge

20 PES under pressure? Diversity in age-related spending pressures Projected rise in spending to 2030 (% of GDP) Source: IMF Quoted in KPMG Meeting the deficit challenge

21 PES under pressure? Diversity in public revenues ( ) Quoted in KPMG Meeting the deficit challenge

22 PES under pressure? Need be more efficient? Question to Public Organizations : Are you radically rethinking your organization s overall long term strategy to put it in a good position for the next decade? Source : KPMG The wolf is at the door

23 1 2 3 PES in perspective? PES under pressure? Questions for PES?

24 Questions for PES? Where can PES go when taking into consideration the bigger picture? Question to Public Organizations : What do you plan to change as part of your long term strategy? Can PES Do more with less? Source : KPMG The wolf is at the door

25 Questions for PES? Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused? Source : Alena Zukersteinova What skills will Europe need and have in 2020? - Cedefop

26 Questions for PES? Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused? Source : Alex Nunn, Tim Bickerstaffe & Ben Mitchell - For an International review of Performance management systems in Public Employment Services - UK Department for Work & Pensions

27 Questions for PES? Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused? Source : ILO Global employment trends for youth August 2010

28 Questions for PES? Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused? Source : ILO Christine Evans-Klock on Ageing population

29 Questions for PES? Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused? Source : Nuria Rodriguez Planas Channels through which Public Employment Services & Small-business Assistance Programs work Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (based on data from Romania in )

30 Questions for PES? Should/can PES join forces with the school system? 50 PISA points more leads to 0.9% additional GDP growth in a sustainable way

31 Questions for PES? Should PES centralize or decentralize? What is the right balance? % of people > 18 y not pursuing studies in Brussels Source: Mc Kinsey