STAT/07/55 23 April 2007

Transcription

1 STAT/07/55 23 April 2007 Provision of deficit and debt data for 2006 Euro area and EU27 government deficit at 1.6% and 1.7% of GDP respectively Government debt at 69.0% and 61.7% In 2006, the government deficit 1 of both the euro area (EA13) 2 and the EU27 fell compared to 2005, while the government debt 1 increased in absolute terms. In the euro area the government deficit decreased from 2.5% of GDP in to 1.6% in 2006, and in the EU27 it fell from 2.4% to 1.7%. In the euro area the government debt to GDP ratio fell from 70.5% at the end of 2005 to 69.0% at the end of 2006, and in the EU27 from 62.9% to 61.7% Euro area (EA13) GDP market prices (mp) (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP EU27 GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP In 2006 the largest government deficits in percentage of GDP were recorded by Hungary (-9.2%), Italy (-4.4%), Poland (-3.9%), Portugal (-3.9%) and Slovakia (-3.4%). Eleven Member States registered a government surplus in 2006: Denmark (+4.2%), Finland (+3.9%), Estonia (+3.8%), Bulgaria (+3.3%), Ireland (+2.9%), Sweden (+2.2%), Spain (+1.8%), Netherlands (+0.6%), Latvia (+0.4%), Belgium (+0.2%) and Luxembourg (+0.1%). In all, 22 Member States recorded an improved government balance relative to GDP in 2006 compared to 2005, while five Member States registered a worsening. At the end of 2006, the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP were recorded in Estonia (4.1%), Luxembourg (6.8%), Latvia (10.0%) and Romania (12.4%). Ten Member States had government debt ratios higher than 60% of GDP in 2006: Italy (106.8%), Greece (104.6%), Belgium (89.1%), Germany (67.9%), Malta (66.5%), Hungary (66.0%), Cyprus (65.3%), Portugal (64.7%), France (63.9%) and Austria (62.2%). In 2006, government expenditure 4 in the euro area was equivalent to 47.4% of GDP, and government revenue 4 to 45.8%. The figures for the EU27 were 46.8% and 45.1% respectively. In both zones between 2005 and 2006, the government expenditure ratio decreased slightly, while the government revenue ratio increased.

2 Reservations on reported data 5 Eurostat has no reservations on the reported data. Amendments by Eurostat to reported data 6 Belgium: Eurostat has amended the deficit and debt data notified by Belgium for 2005 and 2006 in relation to the assumption by government (FIF Fonds de l'infrastructure ferroviaire) in 2005 of 7400 million euro (2.5% of GDP) of the debt of the railway company SNCB. According to ESA95 rules, FIF is classified inside the government sector and the debt assumption is recorded as increasing the deficit. The amendment of the government balance is mn euro in 2005 and mn euro in 2006; the amendment of the government debt at the end of 2005 amounts to mn euro (1.8% of GDP) and at the end of 2006 to mn euro (1.6% of GDP). Portugal: Eurostat has amended upwards the deficit data notified by Portugal in 2005 by 158 mn euro (0.1% of GDP) due to the reclassification of capital injections as capital transfers by government in two hospitals (Santa Maria and Nordeste). According to ESA95 rules, capital injections in public enterprises add to the deficit when government does not act as a private shareholder and there are doubts on the profitability of the project. United Kingdom: Eurostat has amended the data notified by the United Kingdom for years 2003 to 2006 for consistency of recording of UMTS licences proceeds. This leads to increase in the government deficit in 2003 and 2006 (as well as for financial year 2003/2004) by GBP 1045 mn (0.1% of GDP) and in 2004 and 2005 (financial years 2002/2003, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006) by GBP 1044 mn (0.1% of GDP). There is no change in the reported debt figures. Greece: Eurostat is using for the purpose of this EDP notification unrevised GDP figures provided by the Greek authorities in an annex to the notification, and not the revised GDP figures included in the April 2007 EDP notification tables. The latter are currently being verified by Eurostat. Background In this News Release Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, is providing government deficit and debt data based on figures reported in the first 2007 notification by EU Member States for the years , for the application of the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). This notification is based on the ESA95 system of national accounts. This News Release also includes data on government expenditure and revenue. Eurostat will also be releasing information on the underlying government sector accounts, as well as on the contribution of deficit/surplus and other relevant factors to the variation in the debt level (stock-flow adjustment), on the government finance statistics section on its website: 1. According to the Protocol on the excessive deficit procedure annexed to the EC Treaty, government deficit (surplus) means the net borrowing (net lending) of the whole general government sector (central government, state government, local government and social security funds). It is calculated according to national accounts concepts (European System of Accounts, ESA95). Government debt is the consolidated gross debt of the whole general government sector outstanding at the end of the year (at nominal value). Table of euro area and EU27 aggregates: the data are in euro. For those countries not belonging to the euro area, the rate of conversion into euro is as follows: - for deficit / surplus and GDP data, the annual average exchange rate; - for the stock of government debt, the end of year exchange rate. Table of national data: these are in national currencies. 2. Euro area (EA13): Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia and Finland. Slovenia joined the euro area on 1 st January In the previous notification, the 2005 government deficits for the EA12 and the EU25 were 2.4% and 2.3% of GDP respectively. The government debt of the EA12 was 70.8% of GDP and of the EU % of GDP. See News Release 139/2006 of 23 October Government expenditure and revenue are reported to Eurostat under the ESA95 transmission programme. They are the sum of non-financial transactions by general government, and include both current and capital transactions. For definitions, see Council Regulation No. 2223/96, as amended. It should be noted that the government balance (i.e. the difference between total government revenue and expenditure) is not the exactly the same under ESA95 as that for the purpose of the excessive deficit procedure. Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 on the reclassification of settlements under swaps agreements and forward rate agreements implies that there are two relevant definitions of government deficit/surplus: The ESA95 definition of net lending /net borrowing does not include streams of payments and receipts resulting from swap agreements and forward rate agreements, as these are recorded as financial transaction; For the purpose of the excessive deficit procedure, streams of payments and receipts resulting from swaps and forward rate agreements are recorded as interest expenditure and contribute to the net lending/net borrowing of general government.

3 Concerning 2006, for most Member States the difference, if any, between the two balances is minor except in Greece (0.29%), Denmark (0.13%), Austria (0.13%), Sweden (0.13%) and Finland (0.11%). These differences improve net lending/net borrowing for EDP purposes for all these countries. The data reported by Sweden are not strictly comparable to those of the other countries, as Sweden reports interest on an unconsolidated basis, which results in an overestimation of government revenue and expenditure; however, this has no consequences on the government balance and debt. 5. The term reservations is defined in article 8h(1) of Council Regulation 3605/93, as amended. The Commission (Eurostat) expresses reservations when it has doubts on the quality of the reported data. 6. According to Article 8h(2) of Council Regulation 3605/93 as amended, the Commission (Eurostat) may amend actual data reported by Member States and provide the amended data and a justification of the amendment where there is evidence that actual data reported by Member States do not comply with the quality requirements (compliance with accounting rules, completeness, reliability, timeliness and consistency of statistical data). For further information on the methodology of statistics reported under the excessive deficit procedure, please see Council Regulation 3605/93 (consolidated version available at Council Regulation 2223/96, as amended (consolidated version available at and the Eurostat publication "ESA95 manual on government deficit and debt", second edition (2002), 240 pages, ISBN , pdf file free of charge, paper copy 37 euro (excluding VAT). Additions to this manual on securitisation, capital injections, classification of funded pension schemes, lump sum payments to government in the context of the transfer of pension obligations, and long term contracts between government units and non-government partners are available in the government finance statistics section on the Eurostat website. Issued by: Eurostat Press Office Tim ALLEN BECH Building L-2920 LUXEMBOURG Tel: Fax: eurostat-pressoffice@ec.europa.eu Eurostat news releases on the Internet:

4 GDP, deficit/surplus and debt in the EU (in national currencies) Belgium GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure* % of GDP Government revenue* % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Bulgaria GDP mp (million BGN) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million BGN) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million BGN) % of GDP Czech Republic GDP mp (million CZK) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million CZK) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million CZK) % of GDP Denmark GDP mp (million DKK) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million DKK) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million DKK) % of GDP Germany GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Estonia GDP mp (million EEK) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million EEK) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million EEK) % of GDP Ireland GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP * Belgium has reported government expenditure and revenue data without taking into account the assumption by government (FIF) in 2005 of million euro of debt of the railway company SNCB. Eurostat has adjusted figures for 2005 and 2006 in order to follow ESA95 rules.

5 GDP, deficit/surplus and debt in the EU (in national currencies) Greece GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Spain GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP France GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Italy GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Cyprus GDP mp (million CYP) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million CYP) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million CYP) % of GDP Latvia GDP mp (million LVL) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million LVL) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million LVL) % of GDP Lithuania GDP mp (million LTL) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million LTL) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million LTL) % of GDP

6 GDP, deficit/surplus and debt in the EU (in national currencies) Luxembourg GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Hungary GDP mp (million HUF) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million HUF) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million HUF) % of GDP Malta GDP mp (million MTL) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million MTL) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million MTL) % of GDP Netherlands GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Austria GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Poland GDP mp (million PLN) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million PLN) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million PLN) % of GDP Portugal** GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP ** Portugal has reported government expenditure and revenue without including the capital injections into Santa Maria and Nordeste Hospitals (158 mn euro) as capital transfer (government expenditure). In order to follow ESA95 rules, Eurostat has adjusted the figure for 2005.

7 GDP, deficit/surplus and debt in the EU (in national currencies) Romania GDP mp (million RON) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million RON) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million RON) % of GDP Slovenia GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Slovakia GDP mp (million SKK) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million SKK) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million SKK) % of GDP Finland GDP mp (million euro) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million euro) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million euro) % of GDP Sweden GDP mp (million SEK) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million SEK) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million SEK) % of GDP United Kingdom*** GDP mp (million GBP) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) (million GBP) % of GDP Government expenditure % of GDP Government revenue % of GDP Government debt (million GBP) % of GDP Financial year (fy) 2002/ / / /2006 GDP mp fy (million GBP) Government deficit (-) / surplus (+) fy (million GBP) % of GDP Government debt fy (million GBP) % of GDP *** Data refer to calendar years. Data referring to the financial year (1 April to 31 March), are shown in italics. For the United Kingdom, the relevant data for implementation of the excessive deficit procedure are financial year data.

8 Annex I Main revisions between October 2006 and April 2007 notifications Below are shown country specific explanations for the largest revisions in deficit and debt between the October 2006 and April 2007 EDP notifications as well as in GDP and deficit and debt ratios (see table below). Eurostat's decision on the classification of funded pension schemes in case of government responsibility or guarantee: with the April 2007 notification, the temporary derogation on the implementation of the Eurostat decision on funded pension schemes has come to an end. This has the effect of increasing the deficit/decreasing the surplus as well as increasing the debt for Denmark, Hungary, Poland and Sweden in Deficit Denmark: The decrease in surplus for relates to the reclassification of funded pension schemes outside government in line with the Eurostat decision of 2 March 2004 and the end of the transitory period granted in September 2004, partially compensated by a revision upwards of tax revenues in 2004 and Greece: The increase in deficit for 2004 is mainly due to new information on the time of recording of transfers from the EU budget, in part compensated by an upward revision in tax receivables. The increase in deficit for 2005 is mainly due to a reduction of surpluses of other central government bodies. Italy: The increase in deficit for 2005 is mainly due to the revised accounting treatment of credit export guarantees (SACE). Hungary: The increase in deficit for relates to the reclassification of funded pension schemes outside government in line with the Eurostat decision of 2 March 2004 and the end of the transitory period granted in September Latvia: The increase in deficit for 2003 and 2005 is due to the revised data for other accounts receivable and payable, notably relating to claims towards the EU. Luxembourg: The decrease in deficit for 2005 is mainly due to revisions in VAT and excise duty revenues. Poland: The increase in deficit for relates to the reclassification of funded pension schemes outside government in line with the Eurostat decision of 2 March 2004 and the end of the transitory period granted in September Slovakia: The decrease in deficit for is mainly due to a change in the methodology for recording of taxes and social contributions in national accounts, partially compensated in 2004 by a decrease in surplus of other central government bodies. Sweden: The decrease in surplus for relates to the reclassification of funded pension schemes outside government in line with the Eurostat decision of 2 March 2004 and the end of the transitory period granted in September Debt Denmark, Hungary, Poland and Sweden: The increase in debt for relates to the reclassification of funded pension schemes outside government in line with the Eurostat decision of 2 March 2004 and the end of the transitory period granted in September GDP The GDP notified in April 2007 for EDP purposes was revised by small amounts compared to that notified in October 2006 for the reporting period , most notably by Malta and Portugal (between 1% and 2.5% of GDP). The revision of the GDP for Greece as reported in EDP notification tables is still under investigation, owing to the exceptional size of the revision. In effect, there are statistical uncertainties about these revised GDP data, which require a complete verification by Eurostat. Therefore, Eurostat is using for the purpose of this EDP notification unrevised GDP figures provided by the Greek authorities in an annex to the notification. Changes in GDP affect deficit and debt ratios due to the denominator effect. See table below.

9 Belgium Czech Republic Revisions in government deficit/surplus and government debt ratios from the October 2006 notification to the April 2007 notification Deficit/surplus* Debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Denmark - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Germany - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Estonia - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Ireland - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Greece - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Spain - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios France - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Italy - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Cyprus - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Latvia - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Lithuania - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Luxembourg - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Hungary - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios Malta - due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP * Revisions to deficit/surplus ratios: a positive sign means an improved government balance relative to GDP, and a negative sign a worsening.

10 Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom Revisions in government deficit/surplus and government debt ratios from the October 2006 notification to the April 2007 notification Deficit/surplus* Debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP Revision in deficit/surplus and debt ratios due to revision of deficit/surplus or debt due to revision of GDP * Revisions to deficit/surplus ratios: a positive sign means an improved government balance relative to GDP, and a negative sign a worsening.