OECD III: EMU. Gavin Cameron Lady Margaret Hall. Michaelmas Term 2004
|
|
- Rafe O’Neal’
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 OECD III: EMU Gavin Cameron Lady Margaret Hall Michaelmas Term 2004
2 the Trinity Free Capital Mobility USA, Japan ERM, NICs, EMU Independent domestic monetary policy Stable (Fixed) Exchange Rate Bretton Woods system
3 optimal currency areas An optimal currency area (OCA) should have the following characteristics: Lots of trade within the area; Similar industrial structures, housing and financial markets; Symmetric shocks; Flexible labour markets (i.e. when wages change, labour relocates); Fiscal federalism (i.e. fiscal transfers to depressed regions); Similar monetary transmission mechanisms.
4 benefits of EMU Direct and Indirect Trade Effects Lower transactions costs; Less uncertainty in trade; Price transparency; less segmentation of markets; Capital market integration; Economies of scale due to larger market size. Macroeconomic Benefits No overshooting; Commitment to Euroland inflation rate; Seignorage.
5 costs of EMU Loss of monetary independence: cannot use exchange rate to offset region-specific shocks; ECB anti-inflationary credentials unknown (asymmetric target, no transparency of decision making, Stability Pact); One size fits all monetary policy inappropriate for different industrial structures and financial systems; Countries may differ in their preferences and relationship between inflation and unemployment. In the long-run, endogenous convergence may make these factors less important (but cf. with Krugman s argument that Europe will become more specialized).
6 gains & losses from single currency Gains, Losses gains due to increased trade loss due to monetary inflexibility Θ * degree of integration
7 the development of EMU April 1972: The Snake. 6 EC founders plus UK, Ireland, Denmark, Norway agreed to keep within ±2¼% bands. Sterling left in June 1972, Italy in February March 1979: EMS. Core countries used ±2¼% bands while Italy, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, UK had 6%. No realignments after January 1987; phased reduction of capital controls; September 1992: Crisis. Stress caused by misalignments of Italy, UK and Germany. August 1993: Wide bands. All EMS bands widened to ±15% except DM: Guilder. November 1993: Maastricht Treaty. Convergence conditions: ERM membership, inflation rate (<1.5% higher than best 3), public debt <60%, public deficit <3%. January 1999: EMU. January 2002: Euro notes and coins in circulation.
8 transitions to EMU I Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
9 transitions to EMU II Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
10 trade effects Direct and Indirect Trade Effects Lower transactions costs: trade creation vs trade diversion; Less uncertainty in trade; Price transparency; less segmentation of markets; Capital market integration; Economies of scale due to larger market size.
11 trade creation, trade diversion The absence of currency fluctuations and increased price transparency might be expected to lead to increased trade. What is the price elasticity of trade? The fall in the cost of trade is between 0.25% and 0.5%. Trade Creation takes place when relatively high-cost domestic production is replaced with lower cost imports from a partner country. Trade Diversion takes place when a country switches its source of imports from a more efficiently-producing country to a less efficient one because of a change in trade barriers. Welfare falls.
12 trade in goods Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
13 Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
14 Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
15 evidence on EU trade Direct estimates of the overall financial savings from reduced transaction costs are relatively modest, and accrue mostly to small firms. However, there could be more significant dynamic effects from broadening of capital markets, and increased market size. A recent study by Micco, Stein and Ordonez (1993) argues that EMU has raised trade within the euro area by between 3 and 20 per cent. However, we also need to think about the effect of reduced uncertainty and increased price transparency.
16 currency volatility and trade Aristotelious & Fountas, 1999 Exchange rate volatility had no statistically significant long-run or short-run effect of the volume of intra-eu exports in the majority of countries in our study Calmfors, 1997 (Swedish Government commission on EMU) Many empirical studies have been done on the effects of exchange-rate fluctuations on the volume of foreign trade. The somewhat surprising, but fairly unanimous, conclusion is that these fluctuations seem to influence foreign trade very little, if at all. This conclusion must be regarded as fairly robust, because the various studies have been done with different methods.
17 price convergence Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
18 currency union effects Andrew Rose (2000) found that countries in currency unions trade three times as much with each other, as one might expect given their other characteristics. However, most of the currency unions he examined were small developing countries. In addition, his model may have omitted other factors that are important in determining both bilateral trade flows and membership of a currency union. Furthermore, countries are clearly not randomly assigned to currency unions, so there is a question of selection bias. Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
19 some rough estimates Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
20 loss of monetary independence The loss of monetary independence will be small when countries have similar: Industrial structures; Growth correlations and shocks; Sacrifice ratios; Housing and financial markets.
21 industrial structures Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
22 growth correlations Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
23 volatility Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
24 sacrifice ratios USA Germany France UK Italy Note: Ratio of cumulative increase in unemployment to difference in inflation. Source: El-Agraa (2001) table 17.4.
25 housing markets Owner-Occupation Mortgage Fixed Rate Rate share of GDP share Austria n/a Belgium Denmark Finland n/a France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden n/a UK n/a EU n/a Source: Maclennan, Muellbauer and Stephens (1998).
26 the stability pact Nations can default on their debt in two ways: outright default and through surprise inflation and devaluation. Within EMU countries cannot use the latter option, but does that make an outright default more likely? No evidence of increased risk of outright default from EU bond differentials with Germany. Post-EMU differentials smaller than between US states. The Stability Pact: Countries must aim to achieve budget balances; Deficits of more than 3% of GDP will receive fines of up to ½% of GDP. Fines will not be applied in exceptional circumstances (i.e. natural disasters or a 2% fall in GDP in one year). The Pact is neither flexible nor symmetric, but will it ever be applied?
27 Gordon Brown s five tests Are business cycles and economic structures compatible so that we and others could live comfortably with euro interest rates on a permanent basis? If problems emerge, is there sufficient flexibility to deal with them? Would joining EMU create better conditions for firms making long-term decisions to invest in Britain? What impact would entry have on the competitive position of the UK s financial services industry, particularly the City s wholesale markets? In summary, will joining EMU promote higher growth, stability and a lasting increase in jobs?
28 getting the cycle right I Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
29 getting the cycle right II Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
30 getting the cycle right III Source: H.M.Treasury EMU Studies, 2004.
31 summary The most important determinant of living standards in a country is domestic productivity. This is largely determined by the quality of the workforce, and domestic investment and innovation. No exchange rate system is universally best. Generally, as long as a country is running a responsible domestic policy the choice of regime is unlikely to be important, but when it has large foreign debts or is acting irresponsibly, any exchange rate regime can become unstable. Benefits of EMU likely to be small and spread over a longperiod of time. Upfront cost of entry might be huge if at wrong rate or at wrong point in business cycle (q.v. Britain in 1925, 1946 & 1990).
32 You can download the pdf files from:
Monetary Integration
Monetary Integration By Michael Möhnle Table of Contents 1. 6-Stages of Economic Integration 2. International Monetary Integration - Bretton Woods 3. European Monetary Integration 4. European (Economic
More informationLecture 7: Intermediate macroeconomics, autumn Lars Calmfors
Lecture 7: Intermediate macroeconomics, autumn 2008 Lars Calmfors 1 EMU Economic and Monetary Union An old idea in the European Union 1989: Delors report 1991: Maastricht treaty 1997: Stability pact Eleven
More information26/10/2016. The Euro. By 2016 there are 19 member countries and about 334 million people use the. Lithuania entered 1 January 2015
The Euro 1 The Economics of the Euro 2 The History and Politics of the Euro Prepared by: Fernando Quijano Dickinson State University 1of 88 In 1961 the economist Robert Mundell wrote a paper discussing
More informationThe Transition to a Monetary Union
The Transition to a Monetary Union The Maastricht Treaty The Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1991 It is the blueprint for progress towards monetary unification in Europe It is based on two principles:
More information: Monetary Economics and the European Union. Lecture 8. Instructor: Prof Robert Hill. The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II
320.326: Monetary Economics and the European Union Lecture 8 Instructor: Prof Robert Hill The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II De Grauwe Chapters 3, 4, 5 1 1. Countries in Trouble in the Eurozone
More informationMonetary Union: Benefits, Costs and a Better Alternative
Monetary Union: Benefits, Costs and a Better Alternative by Allan H. Meltzer Carnegie Mellon University and American Enterprise Institute The European Monetary Union (EMU) died quietly in September when
More informationWelcome to: International Finance
Welcome to: International Finance Introduction & International Monetary System Reading: Chapter 1 (p1-3) & Chapter 2 Why is International Finance Important? ٣ Why is International Finance Important? In
More informationIndex* in this web service Cambridge University Press
* anticipated inflation tax, 184 asymmetries in early 1990s, 135 in EMS, 26-8 in exchange rate policies, 148-9 Austria debt of, 54t deficit of, 54t exchange rates in, 45/, 46/ band mean-reversion within,
More informationInternational Environment Economics for Business (IEEB)
International Environment Economics for Business (IEEB) Sergio Vergalli sergio.vergalli@unibs.it Vergalli - Lezione 1 The European Currency Crisis (1992-1993) Presented By: Garvey Ngo Nancy Ramirez Background
More informationANNEX 1 CMES: TRADE INDICATORS FOR FIVE MOST IMPORTANT EXPORT SECTORS
ANNEX 1 CMES: TRADE INDICATORS FOR FIVE MOST IMPORTANT EXPORT SECTORS AND VEHICLES (87), MACHINERY (84) AND ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS (85) Germany Austria The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016
More informationChapter 14: Essential facts of monetary integration
Chapter 14: Essential facts of monetary integration It was the 1992 EMS crisis that provided the immediate impetus for monetary unification. Barry Eichengreen (2002) Prehistory: before paper money Until
More informationSuggested answers to Problem Set 5
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS SPRING 2006 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY ECONOMICS 182 Suggested answers to Problem Set 5 Question 1 The United States begins at a point like 0 after 1985, where it is in
More informationStudy Questions (with Answers) Lecture 17 European Monetary Unification and the Euro
Study Questions (with Answers) Page 1 of 4(5) Study Questions (with Answers) Lecture 17 pean Monetary Unification and the Part 1: Multiple Choice Select the best answer of those given. 1. The is a. The
More informationCommission recommends 11 Member States for EMU
IP/98/273 Brussels, 25 March 1998 Commission recommends 11 Member States for EMU The European Commission has today recommended that the following eleven countries meet the necessary conditions to adopt
More informationThe Stability and Growth Pact Status in 2001
4 The Stability and Growth Pact Status in 200 Tina Winther Frandsen, International Relations INTRODUCTION The EU member states' public finances showed remarkable development during the 990s. In 993, the
More informationThe Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: A Critique
The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: A Critique 1 Reassessment of the OCA-theory I How important are asymmetries between countries, and how do they evolve over time? II Is national monetary policy (including
More informationThe euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective
The euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist, Member of the Management Board 3 rd Annual BBVA European Debt Conference New York, 4 October 217 The euro area:
More informationCyclical Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area
Cyclical Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area Presentation by Val Koromzay, Director for Country Studies, OECD to the Brussels Forum, April 2004 1 1 I. Introduction: Why is the issue important?
More informationM.Sc. in Economic Policy Studies
M.Sc. in Economic Policy Studies John FitzGerald, room 3012, jofitzge@tcd.ie 30/10/2015 1 Outline of lectures 5: October 30 th Exchange rates monetary policy and the real economy Exchange rates What drives
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years EU-15 Denmark Netherlands Great Britain Sweden Portugal Finland Austria Germany Ireland Luxembourg France Belgium Greece Spain
More informationProblems of monetary integration with the euro area:the case of Poland
Problems of monetary integration with the euro area:the case of Poland Prof. Andrzej Kaźmierczak, PhD Warsaw School of Economics Monetary Policy Council Member 1 Contents 1. Conditions of effective functioning
More informationThe Brussels Economic Forum
The Brussels Economic Forum What kind of policies should the new Member States apply to optimise their speed of convergence? Banco de Portugal VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO Brussels, 23d of April 24 I. INTRODUCTION
More informationCan the euro still be saved? Morning session: the threats
Can the euro still be saved? Morning session: the threats Anton Brender and Florence Pisani Berlin, June 17 1 Fiscal and monetary policies: some problems have not yet been fully fixed! Budget balance Budget
More informationHousehold Balance Sheets and Debt an International Country Study
47 Household Balance Sheets and Debt an International Country Study Jacob Isaksen, Paul Lassenius Kramp, Louise Funch Sørensen and Søren Vester Sørensen, Economics INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY What are the
More informationModelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe
Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe National Institute Global Econometric Model Dawn Holland October 211 Project LINK Meeting on the World Economy National Institute of Economic and Social Research
More informationLecture 6: Intermediate macroeconomics, autumn Lars Calmfors
Lecture 6: Intermediate macroeconomics, autumn 2009 Lars Calmfors 1 Topics Systems of fixed exchange rates Interest rate parity under a fixed exchange rate Stabilisation policy under a fixed exchange rate
More informationThe current state of the Euro and its future
The current state of the Euro and its future Volker Wieland IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt Seminar Municipal Guarantee Board, Helsinki, Finland September 12, 2013 Some of the questions raised.. Which
More informationNicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, CFA, PhD
, CFA, PhD Associate professor Romanian-American University Vice-president AAFBR Board member CFA Romania Bucharest, April 2011 1 Summary I. Some background II. Euro area imbalances III. Lessons IV. Conclusions
More informationDEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES The euro against major international currencies: During the first quarter of 2001, the euro appreciated
More informationECFIN/C-1 Fourth quarter 2000
ECFIN/C-1 Fourth quarter 2000 ECFIN/44/4/00-EN This document exists in English only. European Communities, 2001. MAIN FEATURES During the fourth quarter of 2000, the euro appreciated against the US dollar,
More informationThe Euro Crisis. What happened, Why, What are They Doing to Save the Euro?
The Euro Crisis What happened, Why, What are They Doing to Save the Euro? What Happened? Why? Who has been blamed for the crisis? Greece and the other PIGS The EU (flawed economic governance of EMU) The
More informationEuropean Monetary Union
European Monetary Union Chapter 20 1 Macroeconomic Performance of Europe in the 1980 s Average Annual Growth Rates, 1979-1987 W. Europe US Japan Jobs 0.1 1.6 0.9 Output 1.8 2.4 3.9 2 3 Chapter 20 1 Comparison
More informationThe Global Financial Crisis and the Return of the Nordic Model?
The Global Financial Crisis and the Return of the Nordic Model? Lars Calmfors Embassy of Denmark and the Swedish Institute of International Affairs 18 November Topics 1. The global economic crisis 2. Globalisation
More informationFiscal Policy, Budget Deficits and the Economic Crisis. Lars Calmfors Intermediate macroeconomics Stockholm, 30 March 2010
Fiscal Policy, Budget Deficits and the Economic Crisis Lars Calmfors Intermediate macroeconomics Stockholm, 30 March 2010 Three lines of defence against the economic crisis 1. Measures to deal with the
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
1 EMPLOYMENT RATE 1980-2003 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years 80 % Finland (Com 75 70 65 60 EU-15 Finland (Stat. Fin. 55 50 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 9.9.2002/SAK /TL Source: European
More informationMonetary Policy in Euroland
Monetary Policy in Euroland Asymmetric shocks Perfect asymmetry : positive shock in one country is offset by a negative shock in the other country. The ECB, which is concerned with price stability and
More informationGreece and the Euro. Harris Dellas, University of Bern. Abstract
Greece and the Euro Harris Dellas, University of Bern Abstract The recent debt crisis in the EU has revived interest in the costs and benefits of membership in a currency union for a country like Greece
More informationJesús Crespo-Cuaresma Vienna University of Economics and Business. Octavio Fernández-Amador Johannes Kepler University Linz
Business Cycle Convergence in EMU: A Second Look at the Second Moment Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma Vienna University of Economics and Business Octavio Fernández-Amador Johannes Kepler University Linz OUTLINE
More informationPUBLIC FINANCE IN THE EU: FROM THE MAASTRICHT CONVERGENCE CRITERIA TO THE STABILITY AND GROWTH PACT
8 : FROM THE MAASTRICHT CONVERGENCE CRITERIA TO THE STABILITY AND GROWTH PACT Ing. Zora Komínková, CSc., National Bank of Slovakia With this contribution, we open up a series of articles on public finance
More information10: The European Monetary Union. Baldwin&Wyplosz The Economics of European Integration
10: The European Monetary Union The importance of credibility The theory OCA leaves out the issue of credibility in the conduct of monetary policy. Inflation depends on the expectations of economic agents
More informationDEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES The euro against major international currencies: During the second quarter of 2000, the US dollar,
More informationCRISIS MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROZONE. Paul De Grauwe (LSE) Yuemei Ji (Brunel University)
CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROZONE Paul De Grauwe (LSE) Yuemei Ji (Brunel University) Stagnation in Eurozone Figure 1: Real GDP in Eurozone, EU10 and US (prices of 2010) 135 130 125
More informationChart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
More informationLecture 17. The Financial Markets and the Euro
Lecture 17 The Financial Markets and the Euro The Potential Role of the Euro Euro area EU USA Population in 2003 (million) 309 383 291 GDP ( billion) 7.298 9.458 11.035 Stock market capitalization 2002
More informationInternational Currency Experiences: National and Global Choices. International currency experiences in the 20th C. Choices for an exchange rate system
International Currency Experiences: National and Global Choices International currency experiences in the 20th C.» The Gold Standard period» The interwar 1920-1930 period» The Bretton Woods period» Post
More informationGrowth in OECD Unit Labour Costs slows to 0.4% in the third quarter of 2016
Growth in OECD Unit Labour Costs slows to.4% in the third quarter of 26 Growth in unit labour costs (ULCs) in the OECD area slowed to.4% in the third quarter of 26 (compared with.6% in the previous quarter)
More informationShredding Europe s Safety Net: The Welfare State and the Politics of Austerity
Shredding Europe s Safety Net: The Welfare State and the Politics of Austerity Dr. Erica E. Edwards Executive Director Center for European Studies/ European Union Center of Excellence UNC Chapel Hill eedwards@email.unc.edu
More informationExchange-Rate and Interest-Rate Driven Competitive Advantages in the EMU
Exchange-Rate and Interest-Rate Driven Competitive Advantages in the EMU Niclas Andrén Department of Business Administration, Lund University PO Box 7080, SE-220 07 Lund, Sweden Phone: +46-46-222 46 66
More informationEMU G overnance: Governance: Fiscal Fiscal Policy
EMU Governance: Fiscal Policy Francesco Saraceno MPA - 2012 1 Outline What is Fiscal Policy (trivial) The role of Fiscal Policy (less trivial) Some Definitions i i (boring boring!) Fiscal Policy in the
More informationInflation Differentials in the Euro Area
Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area Borka Babic, Economics INTRODUCTION Inflation varies considerably across the euro area member states with low inflation in Germany and inflation significantly above
More informationThe Outlook for the European and the German Economy
The Outlook for the European and the German Economy Annual Economic Forum of the German American Chamber of Commerce Chicago January 26, 2012 Joachim Scheide, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Once
More informationQUARTERLY REPORT FOURTH QUARTER 1998
MAIN FEATURES The EU currencies appreciated by 5% against the US dollar but fell by 10.5% against the Japanese yen. These currency movements contributed to a small gain (about 1%) in the Union s average
More informationEurope in the World Economy: Economic Recovery and Europe 2020
Europe in the World Economy: Economic Recovery and Europe 2020 Rafael Doménech Economic recovery and Europe 2020: Towards smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Wilton Park, October 24, 2012 Main messages
More informationOur inaugural Fiscal risks report. Robert Chote Chairman
Our inaugural Fiscal risks report Robert Chote Chairman 13 July 2017 Background The IMF s 2016 UK Fiscal Transparency Evaluation said that In many cases, the government s control of risks falls short of
More informationII.2. Member State vulnerability to changes in the euro exchange rate ( 35 )
II.2. Member State vulnerability to changes in the euro exchange rate ( 35 ) There have been significant fluctuations in the euro exchange rate since the start of the monetary union. This section assesses
More information34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May 2012 - Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU Plan of the Presentation 1. Fiscal and economic coordination: how did it start? 2. Did it work? 3. Five
More informationASSESSMENT OF THE FULFILMENT OF THE MAASTRICHT CONVERGENCE CRITERIA AND THE DEGREE OF ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC WITH THE EURO AREA
ASSESSMENT OF THE FULFILMENT OF THE MAASTRICHT CONVERGENCE CRITERIA AND THE DEGREE OF ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC WITH THE EURO AREA A joint document of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech
More informationEUROPA - Press Releases - Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax...of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000
DG TAXUD STAT/10/95 28 June 2010 Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio fell to 39.3% of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000 The overall tax-to-gdp ratio1
More informationEconomics of the EU Country chosen for assignment: Poland Word Count: 1495
Economics of the EU Country chosen for assignment: Poland Word Count: 1495 (LABELS AND HEADINGS EXCLUDED) - 1 - Poland became a member of the European Union in May 2004 and thus the EU single market. The
More informationThe Swedish approach to capital requirements in CRD IV
The Swedish approach to capital requirements in CRD IV State Secretary Johanna Lybeck Lilja The aim of capital requirements Enhancing growth creating potential of a integrated, stable financial system
More informationThe Economic Situation of the European Union and the Outlook for
The Economic Situation of the European Union and the Outlook for 2001-2002 A Report by the EUROFRAME group of Research Institutes for the European Parliament The Institutes involved are Wifo in Austria,
More informationRevista Economică 69:4 (2017) TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: REAL CONVERGENCE AND GROWTH IN ROMANIA. Felicia Elisabeta RUGEA 1
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: REAL CONVERGENCE AND GROWTH IN ROMANIA Felicia Elisabeta RUGEA 1 West University of Timișoara Abstract The complexity of the current global economy requires a holistic
More informationIrish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia
Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia Diarmaid Smyth, Central Bank of Ireland 18 June 2015 Agenda 1 Background to Irish economic performance 2 Economic
More informationEconomic Imbalances in the post-maastricht Treaty World A Look at Global and European Implications and Investment Conclusions
Economic Imbalances in the post-maastricht Treaty World A Look at Global and European Implications and Investment Conclusions JOHN W. BECK Senior Vice President Co-Director, Global Fixed Income Franklin
More informationEconomic Performance. Lessons from the past and a guide for the future Björn Rúnar Guðmundson, Director
Economic Performance Lessons from the past and a guide for the future Björn Rúnar Guðmundson, Director Analysis of economic performance Capital and labour: The raw ingredients in economic development However,
More informationCheck against delivery.
Bullet Points for intervention delivered at the OECD-IMF Conference on structural reforms by Jürgen Stark Member of the Executive Board and the Governing Council of the European Central Bank 17 March 2008
More informationMacroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment
Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment February 12, 2016 Helene Schuberth Outline Staff Projection of the Euro Area Monetary Policy Investment Rebalancing in the euro area Fiscal Policy
More informationTable 1: Foreign exchange turnover: Summary of surveys Billions of U.S. dollars. Number of business days
Table 1: Foreign exchange turnover: Summary of surveys Billions of U.S. dollars Total turnover Number of business days Average daily turnover change 1983 103.2 20 5.2 1986 191.2 20 9.6 84.6 1989 299.9
More informationDG TAXUD. STAT/11/100 1 July 2011
DG TAXUD STAT/11/100 1 July 2011 Taxation trends in the European Union Recession drove EU27 overall tax revenue down to 38.4% of GDP in 2009 Half of the Member States hiked the standard rate of VAT since
More informationDemographics and Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe
Demographics and Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe Carlo Favero (Bocconi University, IGIER) Vincenzo Galasso (Bocconi University, IGIER, CEPR & CESIfo) Growth in Europe?, Marseille, September 2015
More informationUnion Digital Works. Union College. Yiran Zhang Union College - Schenectady, NY
Union College Union Digital Works Honors Theses Student Work 6-2012 THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA: BUSINESS CYCLES CORRELATION TRADE INTENSITY INTRA- INDUSTRY TRADE AND TRADE PATTERN IN
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15 64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE 198 26 Employed/Working age population (15 64 years 8 % Finland 75 EU 15 EU 25 7 65 6 55 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4** 6** 14.4.25/SAK /TL Source: European Commission 1 UNEMPLOYMENT
More informationFiscal rules in Lithuania
Fiscal rules in Lithuania Algimantas Rimkūnas Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of Lithuania 3 June, 2016 Evolution of National and EU Fiscal Regulations Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) Maastricht Treaty
More informationIntroduction on monetary policy
Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 18 November 214 Governor Stefan Ingves Today's presentation Where have we come from? Inflation is low in Sweden In the euro area, both growth
More informationFigure 1. Behaviour of the ECB: is it behaving like the Bundesbank? or the Fed?
H9 C41 EUROPE: Economic Policy and Structural Change BLOCK 4. EMU 1. Monetary policy Figure 1. Behaviour of the ECB: is it behaving like the Bundesbank? or the Fed? Giavazzi & Favero (2003) Ch 11 of HMT
More informationEver Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen 1 August 1996
Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen 1 August 1996 I. Introduction Like it or not, the theory of optimum currency areas remains
More informationUC Berkeley Fall Final examination SOLUTION SHEET
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Econ182 Department of Economics International Monetary Economics UC Berkeley Fall 2004 Final examination SOLUTION SHEET WRITE YOUR ANSWERS TO QUESTION 1 ON PAGES 2-5. 1. [30 points,
More informationMacroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession
Alphametrics (AM) Alphametrics Ltd Macroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession Paper presented at Skillsnet technical workshop on: Forecasting
More informationLecture 7: Intermediate macroeconomics, autumn 2014
Lecture 7: Intermediate macroeconomics, autumn 2014 Lars Calmfors Literature: Krugman-Obstfeld-Melitz, chapter 21; EEAG chapters 1 and 3. 1 Topics The origins of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) Costs
More informationQuarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q Irish Household Net Worth
Quarterly Financial Accounts Q4 2017 4 May 2018 Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q4 2017 Household net worth rose by 2.1 per cent in Q4 2017. It now exceeds its pre-crisis
More informationThe Euro and Structural Reforms
The Euro and Structural Reforms Alberto Alesina (Harvard University) Silvia Ardagna (Harvard University) Vincenzo Galasso (Bocconi University) Structural Reforms without Prejudice Università Bocconi, Milan
More informationWill the Troika Adjustment Program of Internal Devaluation Work? Dr. Aidan Regan Blog: Euro-Irish Public Policy
The Origins and Impact of the Eurozone Crisis Will the Troika Adjustment Program of Internal Devaluation Work? Dr. Aidan Regan Blog: Euro-Irish Public Policy Outline Introduction The Origins of the Eurozone
More informationEconomic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
More informationTrade and international capital flows have grown rapidly
InternationalEconomicTrends November International Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization Trade and international capital flows have grown rapidly in recent years. The sum of U.S. exports
More informationThe International Monetary System
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Fourth Edition EUN / RESNICK The International Monetary System 2 Chapter Two INTERNATIONAL Chapter Objective: FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT This chapter serves to introduce the
More informationThe European Economic Crisis
The European Economic Crisis Patrick Leblond Teaching about the EU in the Classroom Centre for European Studies Carleton University, 25 November 2013 Outline Before the crisis European economic integration
More informationUK membership of the single currency
UK membership of the single currency An assessment of the five economic tests June 2003 Cm 5776 Government policy on EMU GOVERNMENT POLICY ON EMU AND THE FIVE ECONOMIC TESTS Government policy on EMU was
More informationStudy Questions. Lecture 17 European Monetary Unification and the Euro
Study Questions Page 1 of 4 Study Questions Lecture 17 pean Monetary Unification and the Part 1: Multiple Choice Select the best answer of those given. 1. The is a. The common currency that the members
More informationUK trade long-term trends and recent developments
UK trade long-term trends and recent developments By Andrew Dumble of the Bank s Structural Economic Analysis Division. This article examines why UK trade performance matters; in particular, it considers
More informationEurope in crisis. George Gelauff. ECU 92 Lustrum Conference Utrecht. 23 February 2012
Europe in crisis George Gelauff ECU 92 Lustrum Conference Utrecht Menu Costs and benefits of Europe Banks and governments Monetary Union and debts Germany Conclusion 2 Europe in crisis Europe largest export
More informationT5-Europe The Jus Semper Global Alliance 01/09/16 1 6
Table-T5 Living-Wage-Gap and Equalisation analysis (vis-à-vis the U.S.) for all employed in the manufacturing sector in PPP for private consumption terms 1996-2015 (Europe) Beginning with the 2012 living-wage
More informationTHE APPLICATION OF OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA TO EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION
THE APPLICATION OF OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA TO EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION CRISTIAN SOCOL * MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINA ** AURA-GABRIELA SOCOL *** Abstract Debt crisis in several Member States of the euro
More informationSCOTLAND S ECONOMIC FUTURE POST-2014 SUBMISSION FROM PROFESSOR ANTON MUSCATELLI
SCOTLAND S ECONOMIC FUTURE POST-2014 SUBMISSION FROM PROFESSOR ANTON MUSCATELLI Introduction I thank the Committee for the invitation to appear in connection with this inquiry. I would like to point out
More informationAssessment of the Fulfilment of the Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Degree of Economic Alignment of the Czech Republic with the Euro Area
Assessment of the Fulfilment of the Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Degree of Economic Alignment of the Czech Republic with the Euro Area A joint document of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech
More informationReal Exchange Rate Movements and Endogenous OCA Analysis: Lessons from the Euro Area for Asia
Prepared for EUSA International Conference April 24, 2009 Real Exchange Rate Movements and Endogenous OCA Analysis: Lessons from the Euro Area for Asia Clas Wihlborg +, Thomas D. Willett, and Nan Zhang
More informationThe Euro and the New Member States
The Euro and the New Member States Natalia Tamirisa International Monetary Fund Warsaw, October 29, 2007 Focus Macroeconomic challenges NMS face as they prepare to join EMU Policies that can help overcome
More informationChapter 9 Essential macroeconomic tools. Baldwin&Wyplosz 2009 The Economics of European Integration, 3 rd Edition
Chapter 9 Essential macroeconomic tools 2 Background theory A quick refresher on basic macroeconomic principles Application of these principles to the question of exchange rate regimes 3 Output and prices
More informationCan the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight
Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight Eurozone Growth Robust in First Half 4 (Percent change, q/q, real GDP) 3 2 1 0-1 GDP Dom Demand Cons Inv Govt.
More informationIS READY ROMANIA FOR EURO ADOPTION? FROM STRUCTURAL CONVERGENCE TO BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION
IS READY ROMANIA FOR EURO ADOPTION? FROM STRUCTURAL CONVERGENCE TO BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION Marina Marius-Corneliu Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, Department of Economics Socol Cristian Academy
More information