Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma Vienna University of Economics and Business. Octavio Fernández-Amador Johannes Kepler University Linz
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1 Business Cycle Convergence in EMU: A Second Look at the Second Moment Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma Vienna University of Economics and Business Octavio Fernández-Amador Johannes Kepler University Linz
2 OUTLINE Motivation Contribution Shocks and business cycle estimation Analysis of synchronization Costs of inclusion Conclusions
3 MOTIVATION: Mundell(1961) and the costs of fixing the exchange rate: Reacting to asymmetric shocks: Exchange rate and interest rate policy Wage flexibility and labour mobility OCA criteria A meta-criterion: Symmetry of shocks or synchronization of business cycle minimizes thecostofjoininga currencyarea Common monetary policy in a currency area as a source of potential asymmetries: Symmetry in the transmission mechanism
4 MOTIVATION: Critiques to OCA theory: The effective participation in a monetary union could change the structure and economic relations among the countries joining it Endogeneity with trade integration, with financial integration There is some evidence of endogeneities(with trade integration): European Commission(1990) / Krugman(1991) controversy Frankel and Rose (1998): (Empirically positive) relation between trade and business cycle Ex ante< Ex postsuitabilitytojoina monetaryunion
5 MOTIVATION: The empirics of business cycle correlation in EU Four main issues: Synchronization in EMU-12 Core periphery debate Enlargement of EMU European idiosyncrasy vs global cycle
6 MOTIVATION: The empirics of business cycle correlation in EU Homogeneity in business cycles in Europe as much as in US (Agresti and Mojon, 2001, Wynne and Koo, 2000) Artis and Zhang (1997 and 1999) and Inklaar and De Haan (2001) controversy: evidence / no evidence of a systematic relationship between monetary integration (the ERM) and cycles homogeneity in Europe Convergence period in EMU-12 since the 90s (Angeloni and Dedola, 1999, Massman and Mitchell, 2003, Darvas and Szápari, 2005, Afonso and Furceri, 2008) Increase in EU heterogeneity during the recession (Fidrmuc and Korhonen, 2004)
7 MOTIVATION: The empirics of business cycle correlation in EU Evidence of a core group Several new EU members showed highly synchronized cycles with the EMU-12 countries, especially Hungary, Poland and Slovenia (Artis et al., 2004, Darvas and Szápari, 2005, Fidrmuc and Korhonen, 2004 and 2006, Afonso and Furceri, 2008) Synchronization among new EU members has also decreased during the recession(fidrmuc and Korhonen, 2004) The recent birth of a European business cycle is diluted within an international business cycle(artis, 2003, Pérez et al., 2007)
8 MOTIVATION: The empirics of business cycle dispersion in EU Crespo-Cuaresma and Fernández-Amador (2010): A long period of sizeable and significant convergence took place in the 90s and finished with the inception of the monetary union in 1999, when a period of smooth divergence started A regime of more synchronization is obtained from 1996 onwards EMU core is more synchronized than EMU-12 New members group has experienced a strong convergence since 1995 and thus, since 2004 is in a level of synchronization similar to that of the EMU-12 A hypothetical EMU enlargement including the new EU members does not introduce distortion in synchronization after the crisis of , specially form 2004 onwards EMU-12 more synchronized than OCDE/Global specially since the beginning of the 90s (1992) until 2004, when dilution in a global cycle
9 CONTRIBUTION: Extension/Robustness of previous research We analyze the dynamics of dispersion of demand shocks and demand-gdp across countries in a group as a measure of cyclical synchronization(sigma-convergence) Procedure: Estimation of demand shocks and cyclical (demand) component (SVAR Blanchard and Quah, 1989) Crespo-Cuaresma and Fernández-Amador (2010) approach: Compute the(weighted) cross-standard deviation series Test for significant changes in dispersion Identify convergence/divergence periods Compute cost of inclusion for countries considered Groups considered: EMU-12, Core, New Members, EMU-22, International Series: GDP, CPI; 36 countries
10 Shocks and business cycles estimation SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES ESTIMATION y' ω' 2t 2t = ( GDP, inflation ) = (demand shock, supply shock ) SVAR àla BlanchardandQuah(1989): Stable VAR: yit Kiyit Ki yit εt = = j= j LKjyit j+ 0 ε t C i0 = 0 0= C i Ci j K j Wold-MA representation: y it = = j εt Ciεit Ci εit LCjεit j εt ~ N(0, Ω) = 0 j Αε = Β t ω t Structural(shock) representation: y it = Β 0 +Β 1 1+Β = j i ωt iωit i ωit LΒjωit j ωt ~ N(0, Ι) j= 0
11 Shocks and business cycles estimation SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES ESTIMATION SVAR àla BlanchardandQuah(1989): Therefore the long-run total impact matrix: Ξ = j= 0 C j = ( Ι K 1... K p ) 1 Α 1 Β Where we impose the long-run restriction: whereα=ι Finally we obtain Ξ,ω 2t 0 = ξ ξ 12 Ξ 21 ξ 22 We can analyze the impulse response functions to 1%std impulse to both shocks And we can retrieve the supply component of GDP (adding a linear trend and an intercept term) and the demand component of GDP
12 Shocks and business cycles estimation SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES ESTIMATION Austria Belgium Germany Spain Finland France Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal
13 Shocks and business cycles estimation SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES ESTIMATION Bulgary Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovenia Slovak Republic
14 Shocks and business cycles estimation SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES ESTIMATION Australia Canada Switzerland Denmark United Kingdom Iceland Japan Rep. Korea Mexico Norway New Zealand Sweden Turkey USA
15 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Standard deviation series Demand shocks Demand-GDP Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-gdp)
16 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Carree-Klomp (1997) test Test for equality of variances: Distributedas a underthenullofno changein thevariances Identificationofconvergence/divergenceperiodsatdifferenthorizons:
17 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Carree-Klomp (1997) test Demand shocks Demand-GDP Significant changes 2 years (demand shocks) Significant changes 4 years (demand shocks) Significant changes 6 years (demand shocks) Significant changes 8 years (demand shocks) Significant changes 2 years (demand-gdp) Significant changes 4 years (demand-gdp) Significant changes 6 years (demand-gdp) Significant changes 8 years (demand-gdp)
18 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Bai-Perron (1998, 2003) A parametric approach: Approximate the dynamics of the dispersion series with an AR(r) process and assess the existence of structural breaks using the Bai and Perron s (1998 and 2003) methodology Given the specification: Estimate the breakpoints as: Testing problems: Lack of identification of the breakpoints under the null Simulatethesup-Ftestunderthenull(BaiandPerron, 1998 and2003)
19 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Bai-Perron (1998, 2003) Demand shocks (1986/1) Demand-GDP (1993/2) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Unconditional expectation (partial SC - intercept) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Unconditional expectation (partial SC - intercept)
20 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Comparative How wouldtheoptimalityofemu withtheinclusionofallthenewmembers? Consider the following groups: Core NEWs and EMU-22 Global How would each country contribute to the optimality of EMU? Costofinclusionofcountry j in periodt
21 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Comparative core Demand shocks Demand-GDP Weighted standard deviation (Core demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (Core demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (Core demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (Core demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-gdp)
22 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Comparative enlargement Demand shocks Demand-GDP Weighted standard deviation (New members demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (New members demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (New members demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (New members demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Demand shocks Demand-GDP Weighted standard deviation (EMU-22 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-22 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-22 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-22 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-gdp)
23 ANALYSIS OF SYNCHRONIZATION: Comparative global Demand-GDP Demand-GDP Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (Global1 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (Global1 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-gdp) Demand shocks (1983/1) Demand-GDP (1984/2) Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand shocks) Unconditional expectaction (Global1 partial SC-intercept) Unconditional expectaction (EMU-12 partial SC-intercept) Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand-gdp) Unconditional expectaction (Global1 partial SC-intercept) Unconditional expectaction (EMU-12 partial SC-intercept)
24 COSTS OF INCLUSION: coi t, j Ω = ( σ t, Ω j σ σ t, Ω t, Ω ) coi coi t, j Ω t, j Ω > < 0 : σ 0 : σ t, Ω j t, Ω j σ σ t, Ω t, Ω > < 0 :benefit of country j 0 :cost of country j
25 COSTS OF INCLUSION: EMU-12 Austria Belgium Germany Spain Finland France Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal
26 COSTS OF INCLUSION: EMU-22 Austria Belgium Bulgary Cyprus Czech Republic Germany Spain Estonia Finland France Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovenia Slovak Republic
27 CONCLUSIONS: Eurozone converged to a stable lower level of dispersion in demand shocks from the late-80s and demand-gdp first-90s This is supported by similarities in propagation mechanisms Convergence diluted core differentials till 2005 The NEWs experienced strong convergence as a group till 2005, when dispersion increases. TheinclusionofNEWsdoesnotimplyanydistorsionin theoptimalityofemu Evidenceofa Europeanbusinesscycleduringthe90s, notdilutedin a global cycle In line with Crespo-Cuaresma and Fernández-Amador (2010)
28 CONCLUSIONS: Assessing the Euro adoption requires considering more criteria (determinants of business cycle synchronizazion): After the Euro adoption Evidence on nominal convergence Trade and FDI promotion Financial integration enhancing Broad fiscal coordination preferred and only supply shocks induce to deviations from agreement, fiscal shocks-smoothing improved in enlarged EMU Enough labour markets flexibility in the new EU-members
29 Business Cycle Convergence in EMU: A Second Look at the Second Moment Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma Vienna University of Economics and Business Octavio Fernández-Amador Johannes Kepler University Linz
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