BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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1 BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Henrique Meirelles Henrique Meirelles February 8th, 2016 February 08th, 2016
2 INTRODUCTION 80 s Hyper inflation and volatility Monetary stabilization but no fiscal consolidation. It was based on the pegging of the real to the dollar Framework for future stabilization was built Economic stabilization. From 2005 through 2010 inflation on target and average growth of the GDP above 4%. New Economic Matrix fiscal expansion; higher inflation; DROP IN CONFIDENCE: Investment GDP Unemployment. 2
3 AGENDA SHORT RUN (2016/7): MACRO ADJUSTMENTS FORECASTS LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES CONCLUSIONS 3
4 MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS THE HISTORY OF CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL EXPANSION General Government Gross Debt/GDP (%) 4
5 MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS FISCAL: THE ADJUSTMENT IS IN THE BEGGINING Primary Surplus Debt 5
6 MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS INFLATION: STILL HIGH AND RESILIENT Part of the story comes from the correction of administered-prices 6
7 MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS INFLATION: STILL HIGH AND RESILIENT But other part of the story doesn t: nontradeables are not falling anymore. Despite the rise in unemployment, indexation has kept wages inflation high. Nontradeable-prices are also impacted by exchange rate depreciation. 7
8 MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS INFLATION: STILL HIGH AND RESILIENT In addition to those factors: inflation expectations are unanchored. 8
9 MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS EXTERNAL: THE ADJUSTMENT IS RELATIVELLY WELL ADVANCED Undergoing a classical BoP adjustment: Currency depreciation coupled with growth slowdown reverting Current Account Deficit. 9
10 MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS A RECORD LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: ALLOWS A SOFTER PATH The liquidity cushion is six times as big as short-term external debt. It is also equivalent to 25 months of imports. 10
11 AGENDA SHORT RUN (2016/7): MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS FORECASTS LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES CONCLUSIONS 11
12 FORECASTS SCENARIO FOR 2016 Growth Expectations: -3% 12
13 FORECASTS SCENARIO FOR 2016 Inflation Expectations: 7.2% 13
14 FORECASTS SCENARIO FOR 2016 Current-Account deficit: US$ 32 bi (2,3% of GDP) 14
15 AGENDA SHORT RUN (2016/7): MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS FORECASTS LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES CONCLUSIONS 15
16 LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES STRONG POINTS SCALE AND POLITICAL STABILITY Huge consumption market Political Stability above average Country Ranking Country Ranking U.S. 1 Russia 9 China 2 Italy 10 India 3 Mexico 11 Japan 4 Turkey 16 Germany 5 Argentina 22 U.K. 6 Colombia 28 France 7 Peru 42 Brazil 8 Chile
17 LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES EDUCATION, Average Schooling (number of years) PISA (education quality) Quantity and quality of schooling improving, but still lagging. 17
18 LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES TAXES, PRODUCTION COSTS Tax burden Energy costs 18
19 LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES INFRASTRUCTURE, RED TAPE Logistics Doing business 19 19
20 LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES STATUS-QUO IMPLIES GDP GROWTH OF 2,6% Next decade growth Scenario GDP (%) No adjustment 1,2 Basic 2,6 With reforms 4,0 Reduction in investment distortions would accelerate growth. 20
21 LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES DUE TO EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT: C class will keep growing And durable good consumption Product A&B C D E Computer/Internet Cellular / Phone Schooling (Years) College Education Sanitation Garbage Collection Washing Machine Refrigerator Television Freezer Source: CPS-FGV 21
22 AGENDA SHORT RUN (2016/7): MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS FORECASTS LONG RUN: GROWTH CHALLENGES CONCLUSIONS 22
23 CONCLUSIONS In the short run, macroeconomic adjustments are called for: Necessary to reduce inflation, and increase the fiscal primary surplus. For 2016, most likely scenario is negative growth and persistently high inflation. In the long run, there are several structural challenges: improve education and remove obstacles to investments (poor infrastructure, red-tape, high and distorcive tax burden). Education quantity and quality increases will boost labor productivity, as well as income distribution, with significant repercussion on durable goods consumption. Doing business improvements will make invesment more atractive and generate prospects of above 4% growth-rate. Best quality infrastructure will increase the competitiveness of exports. 23
24 CONCLUSIONS STRONG POINTS Scale. Level of International Reserves. Intitutional strength: independent and active judiciary; regular and free elections; free and independent press. Low hanging fruits example: infrastructure. 24
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