The Latin America Steel Industry: Current Situation and Outlook
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1 The Latin America Steel Industry: Current Situation and Outlook Rafael Rubio OECD Steel Committee November 30 / December 1 Paris, France Agenda I) The Latin America Steel Industry Cycle. II) The Current Situation and Outlook. III) Final Comments. 2 1
2 I) The Latin America Steel Industry Cycle Golden Era: The world as is used to be Year 2000 Year 2009 New Normal: The GF crisis and China New Normal 2.0: China export surge, going down the hill Year In the May meeting, we mentioned the New Normal of the Latin America Steel Industry The New Normal for the medium term, given the unsolved overcapacity issue: Economic growth below potential. Reduced activity of steel end-users. Weak steel demand environment. Depressing prices and decreasing margins. Chinese exports at record highs. Growing and controversial unfair trade. Trade frictions war on imports. The New Normal for the Latin America industry is one of growing risks, unfair trade and financial constraints. 4 2
3 Now, the industry is moving to a New Normal 2.0 The New Normal 2.0 given the unsolved overcapacity issue, China economic slowdown and export surge and lower economic outlook: Higher risks of economic recession weak fundamentals. Urgent need of economic reforms. Steel fundamentals continue to deteriorate. Significant material injury in Latam companies. Higher Chinese exports because trade diversion. Intensifying trade investigations. From war on imports to stronger measures The New Normal 2.0 for the Latin America industry is one of growing material injury, deepen financial problems and uncertain future. 5 II) Current Situation: Latin America needs to catch up other emerging countries GDP Annual Rate (%) Interest Rates (%) LATAM 6.0 ASIA LATAM EUROPE ASIA EUROPE Source: Global Insight 6 3
4 The steel demand is weak Apparent Steel Consumption Annual variation (million tons) / / 2015 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela Latin America* *Latin America includes only the listed countries - Source: Alacero 7 Current situation: Jan/Sept Million Tons 60 Jan/Sep 2014 Jan/Sep % -2.2% +2.8% +.8% Production Consumption Imports Exports Source: Alacero 8 4
5 Million tons 01/12/2015 Despite weak steel demand, imports from China continue growing Finished Steel Exports from China to Latin America (January September) January - September % Jan/ Sep 2014 Jan/ Sep 2015 Source: Alacero / GTA (China Customs Agency) 9 Gaining market share Imports (Million tons) Imports/ Consumption (%) % % % 31% % % % 30% 15 20% % 13% 6% 6% 7% 8% (E ) Chinese Imports RoW Share Chinese Imports/Consumption Share Total Imports/Consumption % 0% Source: Alacero / GTA (China Customs Agency) 5
6 China s exports to Latin America: volume goes up and prices down Volume (million tons) Importaciones desde China Precio Promedio US$ / Tons (E ) 0 Source: Alacero / GTA (China Customs Agency) 11 Capacity utilization rate is below sustainable levels ( 85%) Volume (million tons) Capacity Utilization Rate (%) % % % 70% % 64% % 60% 15 40% 20% ( E ) Finished Steel Imports Utilization rate of Crude Steel Capacity 0% Source: worldsteel/ Alacero 12 6
7 Steel Trade deficit between Latam and China is Deepening US$ billions 1 - (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (2.8) (3.3) (3.6) (3.8) (5.4) (5.0) (E ) Source: Alacero / GTA (China Customs Agency) 13 Significant material injury in the Latin America steel industry Brazil experience Several shutdowns of production facilities: 47 production lines, 2 blast furnaces, 4 steel melt shops, 8 rolling facilities and other equipment. Investments for US$ 2.2 billion postponed. Reduction of labor force: layoff of 21,786 workers, 18% of the 2014 total. Significant number of equipment, already in the ground, has not been installed: 2 blast furnaces, 2 steel melts hop, 3 rolling facilities and 16 other equipment. Colombia experience Shutdown of HRC and CRC steel facilities. Shutdown of steel value chain facilities: wire and wire products. Source: Marco Polo de Mello Lopez, The Brazilian Steel Industry: The Big Questions. July 14,
8 Significant material injury in the Latin America steel industry Mexico experience Shutdowns of 1 blast furnaces and other facilities. Labor force layoff: 5,000 direct workers and,000 indirect workers. Shutdown of iron mining operations. Increasing financial losses and lower steel production. Peru Experience 24% labor force reduction. Investments for US$230 million postponed. Shutdown of scrap operations. Argentina Experience Shutdowns of 1 blast furnaces, a coke battery and other facilities. Investments postponed, cost reductions and voluntary retirements. 15 Unfair trade proved by a growing number of trade remedy cases Steel products investigations (October 2015) In Process Final Decisions Against Against Total Total China China TOTAL Argentina Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Dominican Republic Chile Chile and Mexico applied safeguards or similar measures 16 8
9 Final comments Popular expression: it is going to get worse before it s gets better. So, the question is what needs to happen to get better? For the economies of the region, the urgent need of economic reforms to retake the growth path. For the governments, to make sure the there is a level playing field. And to accelerated the fight against unfair trade. 17 Final comments But more important questions are with regard to China Is China becoming a market economy and is it capable of solving its steel industry problems? Overcapacity issue, commercial policies of the State-owned Enterprises, subsidy support framework and need of exports. The consensus view is that the re-balancing of the Chinese economy is taking place in some activities but not in the steel industry. In this context, Chinese steel exports to the region will continue to deepen the negative impact on the Latin American steel industry. 18 9
10 The Latin America Steel Industry: Current Situation and Outlook Rafael Rubio OECD Steel Committee November 30 / December 1 Paris, France
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