GBTA BTI Outlook: Brasil

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Arlene Smith
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1 GBTA BTI Outlook: Brasil 2 nd Half

2 Agenda GBTA BTI Outlook Brazil: Overview Methodology GBTA BTI : Global Context Brazil Business Travel Spending Details 2

3 Overview In 2017, completed 8 th Global BTI study Demand-side measurements of business travel including all types of business trips and all spending while on a trip 75 countries by 48 industries Domestic vs. international outbound Historical measures and 5-year projections for Business Travel Spending 3

4 Methodology Demand-side measurements of business travel including all types of business trips and all spending while on a trip Input/output approach puts T&E on par with labor, material, and other service inputs Travel spend is a function of industry sales and travel intensity Projections driven by global economy, travel productivity, travel supply capacity, travel pricing, and relevant policy issues 4

5 GBTA BTI : Global Context 5

6 The Era of Uncertainty Continued Through Last Year 20,0% Business Travel Timeline: 15+ Years of Volatility Compound Annual Growth in Spending By Period 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% ,0% -15,0% Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July

Higher spending Lower spending Source: GBTA Foundation, Rockport Analytics Europe: $347 billion

8 Latin America Represents 4% of Global Business Travel Spending 2016 Global Business Travel Spending by Region (share of global total in parentheses) North America: $307 billion USD (24%) Higher spending Lower spending Source: GBTA Foundation, Rockport Analytics Europe: $347 billion USD (28%) Latin America: $53 billion USD (4%) MEA: $24 billion USD (2%) Asia-Pacific: $529 billion USD (42%) 8

9 Global Business Travel Spending by Industry Top 10 Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July

10 Global Business Travel Spending Growth Will Vary by Sector Over the Next 5 Years Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July

In 2016, Brazil Ranked 10 th Globally in Business Travel Spending, Down From 9 th in 2015 2015

12 Of the 10 Largest Business Travel Markets, Brazil Struggled the Most in in % 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

13 Brazil Represents More Than Half of Latin America s Business Travel Spending 2016 Business Travel Spend Share of LATAM Total Brazil $27.2 B 51.1% Mexico $7.2 B 13.4% Colombia $4.0 B 7.4% Peru $3.3 B 6.3% Chile $3.3 B 6.1% Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July 2016 Argentina $2.5 B 4.7% Venezuela $2.2 B 4.2%

14 6 Countries Represent Almost 7% of Latin America s Business Travel Spending 2016 Business Travel Spend Share of LATAM Total Uruguay $864 MM 1.6% Costa Rica $765 MM 1.4% Ecuador $675 MM 1.3% Panama $609 MM 1.1% Honduras $334 MM 0.6% Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July 2016 Bolivia $361 MM 0.7%

15 Latin America s Business Travel Spending Set to Rebound Over the Next 5 Years -7.2% 2.9% 3.9% 6.8% 4.9% 6.4% Forecast Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July

16 Brazil s Infrastructure Ranks #72 Globally, Lower Than Any of the Other Top 10 Biz Travel Markets Quality of Infrastructure among Top 20 Business Travel Spending (BTS) Economies, Available Airline Seat BTS Air km/week, Country / Economy Rank Overall Roads Railroad Port Transport Millions China United States Germany Japan United Kingdom France South Korea India Italy Brazil Source: World Economic Forum and Rockport Analytics 16

17 Brazil Business Travel Spending Details 17

18 What Is the GBTA BTI? The GBTA BTI is derived from total business travel spending and is a statistical indicator of the health of the overall economy. An index base year of 2005 was chosen for the GBTA BTI for three reasons. It is relatively recent and reflects similar market conditions 2005 represents neither the top of an expansion nor the trough of a recession The U.S. Government has chosen 2005 as the base year for many of its high profile economic releases Specifically, the GBTA BTI is set equal to 100 in Q GBTA. All rights reserved. 18

19 GBTA BTI - Brazil Forecast Source: GBTA Foundation, Rockport Analytics 19

20 Brazil s Business Travel Spending Will Slowly Rebound Over the Next 5 Years -10.8% 1.5% 3.3% 0.8% 2.3% 5.2% Forecast Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July

22 Total Business Travel Growth - Brazil Source: GBTA BTI Outlook: Annual Report and Global Forecast, July 2017

23 Brazil s Business Travel Spending Is Dominated by Domestic Source: GBTA Foundation, Rockport Analytics 27

24 Domestic vs. Outbound Growth - Brazil Source: GBTA Foundation, Rockport Analytics 28

25 Travel Price Outlook 25

26 Overview & Methodology 4 th annual GBTA Global Travel Forecast, in partnership with the Carlson Family Foundation Projects air, hotel, and car rental prices for countries and 10 U.S. cities All projections are in USD, not local currencies; forecasts may reflect expected changes in exchange rates Forecasts provided by CWT Solutions Group Data analysis conducted by Rockport Analytics 26

27 In 2018, Airfares Will Fall in Brazil, But Rise Globally Source: 2018 Global Travel Forecast, July 2017

28 In 2018, Hotel Rates Will Fall by Almost 9% in Brazil Source: 2018 Global Travel Forecast, July 2017

29 In 2018, Car Rental Prices Will Slightly Increase in Brazil Source: 2018 Global Travel Forecast, July 2017

30 Key Takeaways Global business travel spending will accelerate. After growing 3.5% last year, it will grow 5.2% in 2017 and 6.1% in 2018 Brazil represents more than one-half of business travel spending in Latin America Brazil s business travel spending will return to positive growth (+1.5%) in 2017 after declining more than 10% in

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