Macroeconomic Outlook for Latin America

Transcription

1 Macroeconomic Outlook for Latin America Adriana Arreaza Director of Macroeconomic Studies CAF Infrastructure Forum Melbourne May, 017

2 Latin America is coming out of a prolonged economic slowdown, supported by improved global conditions 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 1% 0% -1% -% GDP growth for Latin America and OECD (year on year % change) -3% p 018p 019p Note: Weighted average for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. The fiscal stimulus scenario is operationalized by a surge in GDP growth in the US, compared to our baseline scenario. For the protectionist scenario we assume targeted measures by the US against Mexico and China. Source: OECD/CAF/ECLAC simulations based on a Global Bayesian VAR model. Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF, Latin American Economic Outlook 018

3 The balance of risks is tilted to the downside, but there is a non-negligible upside External Risks Policy uncertainty in the US (fiscal stimulus, protectionism) Larger than expected deceleration in China (medium term) Financial volatility Geopolitical risks 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 1% 0% -1% -% -3% Note: Weighted average for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. The fiscal stimulus scenario is operationalized by a surge in GDP growth in the US, compared to our baseline scenario. For the protectionist scenario we assume targeted measures by the US against Mexico and China. Source: OECD/CAF/ECLAC simulations based on a Global Bayesian VAR model. Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF, Latin American Economic Outlook 018 GDP growth in Latin American economies with different scenarios (%) Protectionism Fiscal Stimulus in the US Baseline p 018p 019p

4 The balance of risks is tilted to the downside External Risks Policy uncertainty in the US (fiscal stimulus, protectionism) Larger than expected deceleration in China (medium term) Financial volatility Geopolitical risks Idiosyncratic Risks Uncertainty due to electoral processes Delays in large infrastructure projects

5 Americas Latinas: uneven cyclical positions Illustration of the position of selected Latin America economies in the business cycle (017, deviation from trend using HP filter) Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay Chile Ecuador Honduras Panamá Nicaragua República Dominicana El Costa Salvador Rica Guatemala Perú Colombia México Barbados The Bahamas Argentina Brasil Trinidad y Tobago Venezuela Source: OECD/CAF/ECLAC based on IMF (017), CAF, and OECD (to be adjusted with OECD Global Economic Outlook, June).

6 Limited space for demand stimuli, particularly fiscal, with heterogeneity Gross public debt and primary fiscal balance in selected Latin American and Caribbean countries, 016 (Central government, %GDP) Note: Estimates for 016. LAC is a simple average for the 17 economies used. For Mexico primary balance refers to Non-Financial Public Sector, for Peru to General Government. Source: OECD/CAF/ECLAC based on ELAC 017 Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 017: Mobilizing resources to finance sustainable development.

7 Can t just blame it on the cycle: potential output growth is dragged down by lower productivity Sources of income per capita differences, Panel A. Sources of income 014per capita differences, Panel A. Sources of income per capita differences, Utilisation Utilisation gap gap Productivity Productivity Gap Gap Labor productivity in Latin American countries, Australia, Panel B. Labour Panel productivity B. China Labour in Latin American and productivity South Korea in Latin American countries, Australia, countries, China Australia, and South Korea China and South Korea Australia Australia China China Korea Korea Latin America Latin America Notes: Panel A is: Compared to the simple average of the 17 OECD countries with the highest GDP per capita in 014 at 011 PPPs (in mil. 011US$). The sum of the percentage difference in labour resource utilisation and labour productivity does not add up exactly to the GDP per capita difference since the decomposition is multiplicative. Labour productivity is measured as GDP per employee. Labour resource utilisation is measured as employment as a share of population. Panel B: Percentage productivity of the United States, 5 year moving average, PPP. Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF based on Penn World Tables PWT 9.0, 016 and The Conference Board (016), The Conference Board Total Economy Database.

8 Closing the logistics gap is key to increase productivity Logistics performance gap to the best performing OECD country Note: The Logistics Performance Index (LPI) has a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 represents the best logistics performance. The gap refers to the difference for each logistics component with the bestperforming OECD country, which is Finland for the LPI and for customs, logistics quality, and tracking and tracing; Germany for infrastructure and timeliness; the Netherlands for international shipments. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) consists of 19 countries. LAC7 refers to the seven largest economies as measured by GDP: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of). The OECD countries with the lowest GDP per capita in 1990 were Chile, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Turkey. Source: OECD/CAF/ECLAC (014), Latin American Economic outlook 6

9 Investment shortfall to close the infrastructure gap of about % of GDP: need more private sector engagement Investment in infrastructure in Latin America (millions, USD) Source: CAF, Ideal 014 6

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