Fixed Income Daily Notes

Transcription

1 Fixed Income Daily Notes Indonesia Government Bonds Yield Maturities (Year) 9-Nov (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Source: Bloomberg Yield (%) Maturities (Year) 9-Nov (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Global Market Update Last Friday, November , yield of US 10-years fell to 3.18% investors began to worry about China slower growth. Majority of global benchmark bond yield also moved downward, indicated by yield 10-years UK gilt and German Bunds, which moved fell to 1.49% and 0.41%, respectively. Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Jum at, 09 November 2018, ditutup jatuh ke level 3,18% setelah adanya kekhawatiran dari investor terkait pelemahan ekonomi Tiongkok. Mayoritas yield obligasi benchmark global juga cenderung ditutup turun, yang mana terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bunds yang turun ke level 1,49% dan 0,41%. Domestic Market Update Government will issue IDR 4 trillion of Islamic government securities (SBSN) or Sukuk tomorrow, November 13. There are 6 auctioned SBSN; SPN-S (Reopening), SPN-S (Reopening), PBS0 (Reopening), PBS019 (Reopening), PBS012 (Reopening), and PBS015 (Reopening). Besok, Selasa, 13 November 2018, pemerintah akan mengadakan lelang Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) atau Sukuk dengan target Rp 4 triliun. Adapun seri SBSN yang akan dilelang ialah SPN-S (Reopening), SPN-S (Reopening), PBS0 (Reopening), PBS019 (Reopening), PBS012 (Reopening), dan PBS015 (Reopening). Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken because of negative sentiment from widening Indonesia current account deficit (CAD). Rupiah will be ranging from IDR,731 -,852 and yield of 10-years benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 8.09% %. Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah yang didorong oleh sentimen negatif melebarnya CAD Indonesia pada kuartal-iii. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp.731 Rp.852, sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 8,09% - 8,20%.

2 Most Active Government Bonds Last Price Last Yield Volume Volume Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield (IDR bn) (IDR bn) FR MEDC03ACN2 ida FR MLJK01E idaaa(sf) FR WSKT03BCN1 A(idn) FR SISMRA01CN2 ida+(sy) FR BBIA01ACN2 AAA(idn) FR BEXI03ACN6 idaaa FR BFIN03BCN3 AA-(idn) FR IMFI02CCN3 ida FR BEXI03ECN4 idaaa SR ISAT01ECN4 idaaa Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 9-Nov Indonesia (JCI) % -7.58% 9-Nov (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) % -4.94% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield Thailand (SET) % -4.86% Fed Fund Rate Singapore (STI) % -9.5% 2-Year Hang Seng % -.4% 5-Year Nikkei % -2.26% 10-Year Shanghai % % 30-Year Dow Jones (DJIA) % 5.% 10-Year Government Bond Yield London (FTSE 100) % -7.58% UK DAX % -10.7% Germany France FX Rate 9-Nov China Nov (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan USD/IDR,731,674,919 Korea GBP/USD Thailand USD/JPY Malaysia USD/SGD Singapore USD/THB Indonesia USD Bond Yield USD/MYR INDO INDO Macroeconomic Data INDO Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Consumer Price Index (MoM) Money Market 9-Nov Consumer Price Index (YoY) Nov (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) JIBOR BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) O/N Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) M M Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M Nov M (-1 Day) M (-1 Week) Indonesia Interest Rates (-1 Month) Deposit 1M (-1 Year) Lending Benchmark 9-Nov (-1 day) Change Yield FR % FR % FR % FR % Government Bond Ownership As of November 08, 2018 (in Trillion) Holders Nov-18 6-Nov-18 7-Nov-18 8-Nov-18 Banks Bank Indonesia Mutual Fund Insurance Foreign Investor Pension Fund Individual Investors Others Total , , , , ,343. 2,343. 2,349. 2,369. Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR

3 Government Bonds Prices Closing Price Data : 9-Nov-2018 Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps) FR Apr % % FR Sep % % FR Nov % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Aug % % FR Mar % % FR May % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Feb % % FR May % % FR Mar % % FR May % % FR Aug % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Jun % % FR Aug % % FR May % % FR Mar % % FR May % % FR May % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Apr % % FR Jul % % FR May % % Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates

4 Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (November (19-23 Maret 12 - November 2018) ) INDONESIA Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection 15 Balance of Trade Oct-18 - USD 0.23 billion USD billion 15 Exports Growth (YoY) Oct % - 15 Imports Growth (YoY) Oct % Days Repo Rate % 6.00% GLOBAL Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection 13 Unemployment Rate United Kingdom Oct % 4.1% Economic Growth Rate Annualized. Prel. Economic Growth Flash. (YoY) Economic Growth 2nd est. (YoY) Japan 3rd Quarter - 3.0% -1.0% Germany 3rd Quarter - 2.0% 1.3% Euro Area 3rd Quarter - 2.2% 1.7% Inflation Rate (YoY) United Kingdom Oct % 2.4% Inflation Rate (YoY) US Oct % 2.3% 15 Crude Oil Inventory US 15 Initial Jobless Claims US Nov Nov million barrel 1.90 million barrel - 2 thousand - 15 Continuing Jobless Claims US Nov thousand 1618 thousand 16 Inflation Rate (YoY) Euro Area Oct % 2.2% Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

5 PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS Head Office Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2 Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-A Jakarta Dealing Room Phone No : Fax No : Eva Sarah Hutabarat eva@megasekuritas.id Head of Debt Capital Market Cicih Sukaesih cicih@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Emilda Mardiyanti emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Ajeng Palupi P. palupi@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Ratna Nurhasanah ratna.nurhasanah@megasekutitas.id Debt Sales Qolbie Ardie qolbie@megasekuritas.id Economist & Fixed Income Analyst Siti Maulina M. siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id Administrative Assistant DISCLAIMER This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights