FOlA Marker. 20' F [ ] tuesday, July 21,?015. Records Management, White House Office of

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1 20' F [ ] tuesdy, July 21,?015 FOlA Mrker fhis T not textul record. This FOIA Mrker indictes tht mteril hsheen removed durihg FOIA processing by George W. Bush Preside ntil Librry stff. Records Mngement, White House Office of Subject Files - LA002 (Conditions.:. Employment- Une rnplbyment) Stck: Row: w 11 Loct'ibn or NARANumber: FRCID: Sect.: Stieff: f>os.: Hollinger ID: " DA Number: Folder Title:

2 EOP RMS - Brcode Scnning Sheet Pgel of 1 NICHOLS_C LA002 Brcode Scnning Sheet Collection Code:. Stff Nme: SECLOG PRESIDENT BUSH Document Dte:. 1/31/2008 Correspondent: Subject/Description: PIERCE SCRANTON EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN JANUARY(****) PUBLIC RELEASE: 8:30 AM, FRIDAY (LABOR DEPARTMENT-BL$) ISM MANUFACTURING REPORT FOR JANUARY(***) PUBLIC RELEASE: 10:00 AM, FRIDAY. (INSTITUTE FOR SUPPLY MANAGEMENT) -- AN ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ~Gt~NNIE\Ql Wi'\f (Q)~\M 6/9/2008

3 ( EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, D.C Jnury 31, 2008 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: PIERCE SCRANTON /65 SUBJECT: Employment nd Unemployment in Jnury C* * * *) Public Relese: 8:30 m, Fridy (Lbor Deprtment-ELS) Unemployment rte decresed nd pyroll employment fell in Jnury Chnge in Pyroll Employment Unemployment Rte Actul -17, % (-0.1 p..) Expected 70, % Nonfrrn pyroll employment decresed by 17,000 jobs in Jnury, significntly below mrket expecttions. Notble losses were in mnufcturing (-28,000) nd construction (-27,000). Helth cre (+27,000) nd food services (+15,000) dded jobs over the month. Privte nonfrm pyroll employment ticked up 1,000 jobs in Jnury. Government employment fell by 18,000 due to losses in stte govenunent eduction (-26,000). Nonfrm pyrolls hve incresed 0.99 million over the lst 12 months nd 8.28 million since August II The unemployment rte decresed in Jnury to 4.9%. Nominl verge hourly wges rose moderte 0.2% in Jnury. They rose 3.7% over the 12 months through Jnury, less thn during the yer-e.i:lier period. Rel hourly wges decresed by 0.7% over the 12 months ended in December. Totl production-worker hours decresed by 0.3% in Jnury. Hours for Jnury re down slightly from the 2007:Q4 verge. The nnul revision to the estblishment survey subtrcted 293,000 jobs. Not-sesonllydjusted pyroll job counts were revised bck to April 2006 bsed on unemployment insurnce tx records for Mrch NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT monthly chnge CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.,.0 0 ~., 1:J c: cu :J "' 0 ;:: r "E II) ~ 5.2 II) [L , r-' JAN 05 JAN 06 JAN 07 JAN OB , , ' JANOS JAN06 JAN07 JAN DB

4 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: PIERCE SCRANTON ~ SUBJECT: EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, D.C Jnury 31, 2008 ISM Mnufcturing Report for Jnury(***) Public Relese: 10:00 m, Fridy (Institute for Supply Mngement) The purchsing mngers' index (PMI) jumped 2.3 points in Jnury. At 50.7, the index is bove the brek-even level of 50, suggesting growth in the mnufcturing sector. The index ws below 50 in December (48.4). Mnufcturing supply mngers report expnsion in Jnury Purchsing Mngers' Index (Mnufcturing) Jnury Actul Expected (+2.3 pts. from December) Two of the five components of the index were bove 50: production (55.2) nd supplier deliveries ( 52. 8). The three components below 50 were new orders ( 49.5), employment ( 4 7. I), nd inventories of rw mterils ( 49. I).. The new export orders index incresed 6.0 points to 58.5, suggesting continued growth in exp01is. This is the 62nd consecutive month of growth in export orders.. Mnufcturing supply mngers report little effect of the "credit crunch." In response to specil question, 92.6% ofresponding supply mngers rep01ted tht the tu1111oil in the finncil mrkets is hving no effect on their bility to obtin regulr or dditionl finncing. Supply mngers report mixed outlook for When sked how they felt bout the next 12 months compred to 2007, 22.9% of mnufcturers in the survey responded "better", with 37.5%. responding "the sme" nd 39.6% "worse." The ISM mnufcturing survey, initil clims for unemployment insurnce, nd the Jnury lbor mrket report re the first indictors ofrel ctivity in Jnury. Together, they suggest little growth t the beginning of the first guru.tel'. ISM PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX ISM EMPLOYMENT.INDEX 65 ~ 60 :;J "' ~ 55 ~ co 50-t--1---l-~~-'<-~-f--'4.f-l-l'=-'='---"-'=-~~~~---'>,.l-l "' m :l: 45 Q) E " ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~----I JAN 98 JAN OD JAN 02 JAN04 JAN 06 JAN t---...~~~~~~~---..~~~~~~~ JAN 98 JAN 00 JAN 02 JAN 04. JAN 06 JAN 08

5 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON. D.C Jnury 31, 2008 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: PIERCE SCRANTON /t5 SUBJECT: An Assessment of Cunent Mcroeconomic Conditions This week's dt were mixed. Nonfnn pyrolls edged down in Jnury (embrgoed until 8:30.m., Fridy) nd fourth-qurter rel GDP growth slowed more thn the mrket hd. expected. On the positive side, the unemployment rte declined bit in Jnury (embrgoed unth 8:30.m., Fridy), rel disposble personl income rose in December, nd privte nonresidentil construction ws up 1.3% in December (embrgoed until 10:00.m., Fridy). In response to signs of wekness, the Federl Open Mrket Committee cut the trget Federl Funds rte. Nonfrm pyroll employment declined 17,000 in Jnury (embrgoed until8:30.m., Fridy), following n verge monthly gin of 95,000 per month in The unemployment rte edged down to 4.9%. Aggregte hours of production nd nonsupervisory workers declined 0.3% in Jnury, suggesting slow strt to GDP growth in the first qurter. Re! GDP grew t 0.6% nnul rte in the fourth qurter. A drop in inventory investment (mostly motor vehicles) nd lrge decline in residentil investment together subtrcted nerly 2Yi percentge points from GDP growth. In ddition, net exports expnded much less rpidly thn in the previous two qurters. Rel disposble personl income (DPI) incresed 2.1 % during the 12 months of 2007, down from 2.9% in These dt, together with continued wek redings onconsumer confidence, suggest consumer spending my strt off slowly in Mnufcturing ctivity expnded in Jnury ccording to the Institute for Supply Mngement's purchsing mngers' index (embrgoed until 10:00.m., Fridy). In response to specil question, 92.6% ofrespondents reported tht tunnoil in finncil mrkets ws not hving ny effect on their fim1's bility to obtin regulr or dditionl finncing. The Federl Open Mrket Co.mmittee cut its trget for the Federl Funds rte 50 bsis points, to 3.0 percent, following 75 bsis point cut week erlier. The conunittee noted: "Finncil mrkets remin w1der considerble stress, nd credit hs tightened furthe.r for some businesses nd households. Moreover, recent informtion indictes deepening of the housing contrction s well s some softening in lbor mrkets." Rtes hve been cut five times (2.25 percentge points) since September This Week's Hiuhliuhts <n200-0 c "' Nonfrm Pyroll Employment 12-month verge (Dec to Dec): 95!!l 1so 0 ',;;'100 CJ) c Cll {i 50 >- ;s 0 ::;;: DJFMAMJJASONDJ -50 L ' Nonfnn pyroll employment declined in Jnury, with notble decreses in construction nd mnufcturing. 125 x ~ 100.s 75 Consumer Confidence 50 '--~-'-~~'----~--'-~-"~~~ Chnges in indictors of consumer confidence were mixed in Jnuiy, but the levels remined low.

6 '.,. Interntionl Mrket Developments Business lending in the Euro re incresed more thn 14% over the 12 months ended in December, the fstest rte since the dt begn in Strong growth in lending to nonfinncil corportions suggests credit is still widely vilble to businesses despite credit mrket disruptions nd survey results indicting tightening of lending stndrds.. In the Euro re, infltion is expected to be t 14-yer high in Jnury. Preliminry estimtes indicte tht consumer prices will rise 3.2% from yer erlier. In Jpn, conswner price infltion ws 0.7% for the 12 months ended in December 2007, up from 0.3 percent yer erlier; prices for fuel nd trnsp01itio!1 hd the lrgest increses..south Kore's rel GDP grew 6.3% t n nnul rte in the fourth qurter of 2007, bove expecttions. Growth ws supported by strong gins in investmentnd exports, lthough net expo1is were negtive s imporis grew fster thn expo1is. Mrket Developments lterri.. '., (., ' " ;.' :::..,._..,. \". Thursdy C/~s~ : Thursqy C!Os,e ' '1..r:,, Chniie Dow Jones Industril Averge 12,379 12, % S&P 500 index 1,352 1,379 +ZO% 3-month Tresury bill rte bsis points 10-yer Tresury yield bsis point 30-yer mortgge rte bsis points 1-mo. futures price of WTI oil (per brrel) $89.41 $ $2.34 Price of nturl gs (per mmbtu) $7.84 $8.10 +$0.26 Yen/$ The yen pprecited 0.7% $/Euro $1.476 $1.486 The euro pprecited 0. 72% '. i,., Next Week's Mcroeconomic News Dy Item Expecttion* Comment Tue ISM non-mnufcturing index (Jn) 53.0 Non-mnufcturing supply mngers hve continued to (-1.4 pis.) report expnding business ctivity, lbeit t slower pce. Slow growth in both nonf.rm business output nd hours Wed Nonfrm productivity (Q4, preliminry) 1.0%AR (embrgoed until 8:30.m., Fridy) suggests little Q4 productivity growth. *Medin mrket expectt10ns s tllted by Bloomberg L.P.