Information on economic trends

Transcription

1 Informtion on economic trends April

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3 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Summry The monthly indictors of economic ctivity show tht rel GDP growth continued t the beginning of, following its temporry decline t the end of 5. The nnul rte of chnge in consumer prices decresed from. in Jnury to. in Februry, mostly s result of developments in the prices of energy nd food. The monetry policy in the first qurter of continued to be very expnsionry, with record high levels of kun liquidity surplus, while the plcements of bnks in Jnury nd Februry stgnted t the level from the end of the previous yer. Monetry developments were lso under the strong impct of the process of conversion nd prtil writeoff of household lons in Swiss frncs. Dt on government finncing indicte tht strong fiscl djustment ws implemented in 5, while fvourble fiscl developments continued in the beginning of. The GDP nowcsting model shows tht rel GDP growth is expected during the first qurter of, reltive to the previous qurter, following the decline t the end of 5 (Figure ). The volume of industril production incresed in the first two months by.5 from the verge of the fourth qurter of 5, growing in Jnury nd declining in Februry (Figure ). If nlysed by ctivities ccording to the NCA, economic ctivity grew in mnufcturing, electricity, gs, stem nd ir-conditioning supply, while it fell in mining nd qurrying. Broken down by min industril groupings, the production of intermedite goods nd non-durble consumer goods incresed, while other ctegories of industril production recorded decline. Rel retil trde turnover lso incresed by.5 in Jnury nd Februry from the lst qurter of 5 (Figure 7). In Jnury, reltive to the previous three months, the totl volume of construction works incresed, with rise in construction works on buildings nd civil engineering works (Figures 5 nd ). As shown by the results of the Consumer Confidence Survey, consumer optimism indices improved constntly from the beginning of 5. A more fvourble movement of the consumer confidence index in the first three months of ws primrily the consequence of more fvourble expecttions of the finncil sitution in the household for the following period of one yer, compred with the present sitution (Figure ). With regrd to business optimism, the results of the Business Expecttions Survey for the first qurter of point to moderte increse in optimism in the construction ctivity nd services, while it decresed slightly in industry nd trde (Figure ). Enterprises in trde nd services lso expect n increse in the number of employed persons. Business expecttions in industry re dversely ffected by the incresing number of enterprises tht think they hve insufficient orders, while in trde more nd more estimte their inventories to be lrger thn optiml. At the end of Mrch, the CBS published the dt on the number of persons in pid employment in legl entities nd on wges for Jnury ccording to the new methodology nd revised the dt for 5 (Figures nd ). The previous method of the collection of dt through the RAD- monthly survey, which covered 7 of employed persons from ech NCA section, ws replced by the collection of dt from the Report on income, income tx nd surtx s well s contributions for mndtory insurnces (JOPPD form) with full coverge of legl entities. The trnsfer to the JOPPD form resulted in lower vlues of gross nd net wges nd higher level of employment thn shown by the dt from the RAD- monthly survey, but in smller number of employed persons, when compred with the CPIA dt for 5. Thus, ccording to the dt from JOPPD forms (Figure 7) the verge nominl net wge in 5 stood For detils, see Kunovc, D. nd B. Šplt: Nowcsting GDP Using Avilble Monthly Indictors (WP9, October ). t HRK 5,59, or down by from tht shown by the dt of the monthly survey (HRK 5,7), while the verge nominl gross wge ws down by more thn 5 nd in 5 stood t HRK 7, (from HRK,5). The verge gross wge in the privte sector decresed by lmost 9 (from HRK 7,9 to HRK 7,), nd in the public sector it incresed by (from HRK,7 to HRK,9). In ddition, the verge number of employed persons in 5 ws lower thn shown by CPIA dt. On the other hnd, reltive to the dt from the RAD- form, the verge number of persons in pid employment in legl entities in 5 ws higher by thousnd or 5.7, while totl employment incresed by.7. Of the totl increse in the number of employed persons, hlf refers to the growth in the number of persons employed in mnufcturing, wholesle nd retil trde nd public dministrtion. At the sme time, due to the increse in the number of employed persons, there ws decrese in the unemployment rte (Figure 5), which in 5, on verge, hd stood t 7 (7.7). Consumer prices decresed by. in Februry from the previous month (Tble ), mostly becuse of the lower prices of refined petroleum products, the sesonl discount of clothing nd footwer prices nd the reduced prices of certin food products. The nnul decrese in consumer prices ccelerted from. in Jnury to. in Februry, which ws the result of the movement of ll of the min components of the consumer price index, predominntly of food products nd energy (Figure ). The negtive contribution of energy to nnul infltion incresed from. percentge points in Jnury to. percentge points in Februry, mostly due to the fll in crude oil prices in the world mrket in Jnury nd lso to the bse effect. The nnul decline in food prices ccelerted in the conditions of the spillover of the previous reduction of the prices of food rw mterils (Figure ) nd crude oil in the world mrket (Figure ) to finl food products nd surpluses in the Europen mrket of griculturl products, which ws mostly the result of the suspension of quots for the production of milk nd the inbility to export certin food products from the EU to Russi. The contribution of unprocessed food (vegetbles, fruit nd met) to nnul The dt on the number of crftsmen, persons who re self-employed in professionl ctivity nd individul frmers were tken over from the CPIA, so tht they did not chnge. Bsed on vilble dt, it is difficult to explin current employment dynmics, which is thus not commented on in the text (Figure ). According to new originl dt, the verge number of employed persons in Jnury nd Februry decresed by. from the sme period in the previous yer becuse of the decline in the number of persons employed in privte sector services, industry nd construction. A slight decline ws lso recorded in the public sector. On the other hnd, the CPIA dt suggest tht in Jnury nd Februry employment grew by.7 on n nnul level. The new methodologicl pproch does not seem to hve hd noticeble effect on wge dynmics. According to new originl dt, gross wges were higher in Jnury thn in the sme month of 5, primrily becuse of the rise in wges in the privte sector, while net wges incresed by.7.

4 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER infltion decresed the most in Februry. In ddition, the contribution of industril non-food without energy to nnul infltion decresed in Februry mostly driven by more pronounced sesonl decline in the prices of clothing, when compred with the sme period in the previous yer, while the decelertion of the nnul increse in prices ws concentrted on smller number of products from this ggregte. The nnul rte of chnge in core infltion dropped from. in Jnury to.7 in Februry, lrgely s result of the bove mentioned movement of the prices of clothing nd met. Foreign trde in goods t the turn of 5 to ws mrked by voltile movements. After temporry decline in the third qurter of 5, exports nd imports hd rebounded by the end of the yer. This recovery continued on the imports side in Jnury, while exports decresed. The decrese in the totl exports of goods in Jnury reltive to the verge of the previous qurter (7.) ws due to decline in the exports of oil nd refined petroleum products, s well s decline in the exports of ships (Figure ). If ships nd oil re excluded, the exports of the nrrow ggregte continued to grow (.), with the strengthening of the exports of cpitl goods (mostly electricl mchinery, pprtus nd pplinces) nd rod vehicles being prticulrly pronounced. Totl goods imports grew by. in Jnury reltive to the verge of the lst qurter of 5, owing to the increse in the imports of ships previously exported for finishing purposes (Figure ). At the sme time, the imports of crude oil nd refined petroleum products decresed. The increse in imports, excluding ships nd oil, ws even more mrked (5.7) nd distributed over lrge number of SITC divisions. The rise in imports of medicl nd phrmceuticl products, textile industry products nd cpitl equipment ws prticulrly noticeble (Figure ). Until the end of Mrch, the exchnge rte pprecited to EUR/HRK 7.5, or down by. from the end of Februry, when it stood t EUR/HRK 7. (Figure ), prtilly becuse of reduced corporte demnd, expected foreign currency inflows from borrowings nd the strt of the tourist seson. In Mrch, the kun lso pprecited ginst most other currencies of the min trding prtners, which resulted in the pprecition of the index of the nominl effective exchnge rte by. from the end of Februry (Figure ), mostly becuse of the strengthening of the euro ginst the yun renminbi, US dollr, yen nd forint in the globl foreign exchnge mrket. High bnking sector liquidity in the euro re nd the continued expnsionry policy of the ECB in Februry nd Mrch resulted in further fll in euro benchmrk interest rtes. The six-month EURIBOR fell to. t the end of Mrch, while the overnight interest rte EONIA declined to.5 (Figure ). The verge costs of finncing of the prent bnks of the lrgest domestic bnks moved t similr dynmic, but t the end of Mrch they were t slightly higher level thn t the end of Jnury (Figure ). After the growth in Februry, risk premiums for Europen emerging mrket economies lso decresed during Mrch nd the risk premium for Croti recorded the lrgest fll by bout b. p., but with the level of 7 b. p. t the end of Mrch it still remined much higher thn in peer countries. The trend of mintining high domestic bnking system liquidity supported by the CNB s monetry mesures continued in Mrch, which ws reflected in low interest rtes nd smll trding volume in the money mrket. The weighted interest rte on overnight interbnk lons stood t. in Mrch (Figure 9). In the sme month, four uctions of T-bills were held, t which three-month, hlf-yer nd one-yer kun T-bills were plced. One-yer kun T-bills were plced t historiclly low interest rte of.99 (Figure ). In ddition, the Ministry of Finnce issued new trnche of the ten-yer kun bond with yield t issue of.99, which is. percentge points lower thn tht of the trnche of the sme bond issued in December 5. The severl-yer downwrd trend in the lending nd deposit interest rtes of bnks continued in Jnury nd Februry (Figure ). Such developments in interest rtes re perceptible irrespective of the segment or the currency cluse (Figures nd ). The overll interest rte spred of blnces rose slightly from the end of the previous yer nd stood t. percentge points in Februry (Figure ). Monetry developments in Februry were mrked by noticeble decrese in the net foreign ssets (NFA) of the monetry system, which, combined with slight increse in net domestic ssets (NDA), led to moderte fll in totl liquid ssets (M). The fll in NFA ws exclusively the result of the decrese in the foreign ssets of credit institutions, while their foreign libilities stgnted. On the other hnd, the NFA of the CNB incresed on the bck of the growth in the government s foreign currency deposit t the centrl bnk becuse of the inflow from EU funds. Despite the decrese in totl liquid ssets (M) in Februry, primrily stemming from the decline in foreign currency deposits, noticeble growth of this brodest monetry ggregte ws mintined on n nnul level (Figure ), stnding t. t the end of Februry (excluding the effects of chnges in the exchnge rte). The growth of deposit money of households nd non-finncil corportions mostly contributed to such movements. The plcements of credit institutions to domestic sectors (not including the government) t the end of Februry were t level similr to tht t the end of the previous yer, while the fll in plcements on n nnul level (trnsction-bsed) esed from. to. (Figure 7). During the first two months, plcements to households decresed, while plcements to corportions incresed, rising shrply in Februry becuse of borrowing by lrge compny (Figure ). With regrd to nominl trends, plcements to households were still lrgely under the lrge effect of the process of the conversion nd prtil writeoff of lons indexed to the Swiss frnc. From the end of November 5 until the end of Februry, bnks wrote-off totl of HRK.bn of lons in Swiss frncs, while the blnce of totl clims of credit institutions from households indexed to the Swiss frnc dropped to HRK 5.5bn from HRK.7bn before the conversion. The nnul rte of chnge in totl trnsctionbsed plcements to households, which in ddition to the movement in the exchnge rte lso excluded the effect of the writeoff of lons, stood t. (Figure 9). Gross interntionl reserves stood t EUR.bn t the end of Mrch, or down by. from the end of 5 (Figure 9). At the end of the first qurter, net usble reserves reched the level of EUR.bn, or were.7 down from the end of the previous yer. The net externl debt of the domestic sectors shrnk by EUR.bn in Jnury (Figure 5) s result of the decrese in the libilities of the domestic sectors to foreign creditors, with slight decline in foreign ssets. Gross externl debt dropped to EUR 5.bn t the end of Jnury (Figure 55), nd the decrese in totl foreign libilities ws eqully due to the deleverging of the generl government, mostly relted to long-term debt securities, nd by other domestic sectors, most of which ws ccounted for by the deleverging of non-finncil corportions with respect to non-ffilited creditors (Figure 5). Moreover, credit institutions lso reduced their foreign libilities nd improved their net foreign position dditionlly by incresing their foreign ssets.

5 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER 5 The dt on the generl government debt indicte tht strong fiscl djustment ws implemented in 5. The generl government debt stood t.7 of GDP t the end of 5, hving incresed only slightly from the yer erlier. In ddition to the decrese in the deficit, it ws lso due to the use of deposited government funds obtined by borrowing in. The dt on generl government revenues, expenditures nd deficit for the whole of 5 ccording to the ESA methodology should be published by the end of April. The preliminry dt on the stte budget for Jnury, which re shown in ccordnce with the ntionl ccounting pln, point to the continution of fvourble fiscl trends t the beginning of the yer (Tble ). Tx revenues rose, which ws mostly the result of improved performnce in direct txes nd revenues from excise duties, while revenues from contributions lso incresed modertely. VAT revenues decresed on n nnul level, lthough this ppers to be ssocited with the shift of VAT pyments to the beginning of Februry. With regrd to the expenditure side of the budget, noticeble decline ws recorded, i.e. primrily in expenditures for mteril costs. However, such movements my prtilly be explined by the fct tht the budget for hd not yet been dopted, the Decision on the temporry finncing of budgetry users in the first qurter of being in force insted, which probbly ccounted for the dely in consumption.

6 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Figure Qurterly gross domestic product sesonlly nd clendr djusted rel vlues Figure Industril production by min industril groupings sesonlly djusted indices = = Qurterly rte of chnge of GDP left Level of GDP right Note: Dt for the first qurter of is the estimte derived using the CNB s Monthly indictor of rel economic ctivity, on the bsis of dt published until April. Sources: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB nd CNB clcultions. Intermedite goods Cpitl goods Non-durble consumer goods Durble consumer goods Energy Note: Qurterly dt re clculted s the verge of monthly dt. Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury nd Februry. Figure GDP rte of chnge contribution by components Figure 5 Totl volume of construction works percentge points 9 = 5 Imports of goods nd services left Exports of goods nd services left Chnges in inventories left Gross domestic product right Gross fixed cpitl formtion left Government consumption left Household consumption left 5 Qurterly rte of chnge of sesonlly djusted index left Trend-cycle right 7 Note: The projection for refers to the officil projection of the CNB from Mrch. Source: CBS. Note: Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury. Figure Industril production Figure Buildings nd civil engineering works = = Qurterly rte of chnge of sesonlly djusted index left Trend-cycle right Civil engineering works (trend-cycle) left Buildings (trend-cycle) left Buildings (qurterly rte of chnge) right Civil engineering works (qurterly rte of chnge) right Note: Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury nd Februry. Note: Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury.

7 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER 7 Figure 7 Rel retil trde turnover Figure Goods exports (f.o.b.) 5 Qurterly rte of chnge of sesonlly djusted index left Trend-cycle right = Totl exports (qurterly rte of chnge) right Exports excl. ships nd oil (qurterly rte of chnge) right Trend-cycle (totl exports) left Trend-cycle (exports excl. ships nd oil) left in, sesonlly djusted Note: Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury nd Februry. Figure Business confidence indictors stndrdised nd sesonlly djusted vlues, three-member moving verges Figure Goods imports (c.i.f.) 9 5 Construction business confidence indictor Retil trde business confidence indictor Services business confidence indictor Industry business confidence indictor Long-run verge = CCI consumer confidence index Note: New weights hve been pplied to the series of business confidence indictors; s of July, the weights re bsed on totl income insted of the number of employees. The Business Confidence Survey hs been crried out since My. Sources: Ipsos, CNB nd EC dt sesonlly djusted Totl imports (qurterly rte of chnge) right Imports excl. ships nd oil (qurterly rte of chnge) right Trend-cycle (totl imports) left Trend-cycle (imports excl. ships nd oil) left in, sesonlly djusted Figure 9 EU confidence indices sesonlly djusted indices Figure Imports of cpitl equipment nd rod vehicles (c.i.f.) in, sesonlly djusted Industril confidence index left Consumer confidence index left Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) right. 5 Imports of rod vehicles (qurterly rte of chnge) right Imports of cpitl equipment (qurterly rte of chnge) right Trend-cycle (imports of rod vehicles) left Trend-cycle (imports of cpitl equipment) left 5 Source: Eurostt. Imports of mchinery (SITC divisions 7 77).

8 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Figure Trde in goods blnce three-member moving verges of monthly dt Figure Differences in employment indictors for 5.. in thousnd.... Source: CBS. 5 Energy sources Cpitl goods Ships Rod vehicles Other Totl Privte sector Public Industry Services b Totl sector RAD- JOPPD CPIA Public dministrtion nd defence; compulsory socil security, eduction, humn helth; b Wholesle nd retil trde, trnsporttion nd storge, ccommodtion nd food service ctivities. Sources: CBS nd CPIA. Figure Totl employment nd contribution to employment growth by sector sesonlly djusted series Figure 7 Averge gross wges percentge points b Public dministrtion, eduction nd humn helth ctivities Other Industry Construction Trde Totl employment, CPIA right Totl employment, JOPPD right Public dministrtion nd defence; compulsory socil security, eduction, humn helth nd socil work ctivities. Note: Around, insured persons were removed from the CPIA register due to dministrtive resons in October. Structurl columns show contributions by sector in ccordnce with CPIA dt. Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury nd Februry. Source: CPIA nd CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. in thousnd HRK Nominl gross wge (qurterly rte of chnge) right Rel gross wge (qurterly rte of chnge) right Averge nominl gross wge, originl dt left Averge rel gross wge, originl dt left Averge nominl gross wge JOPPD Averge rel gross wge JOPPD Figure 5 Registered nd ILO unemployment rtes sesonlly djusted dt Figure Nominl gross wge by sector in 5, before nd fter the chnge in methodology HRK ILO unemployment rte Registered unemployment rte Registered unemployment rte JOPPD Monthly ILO unemployment rte is Eurostt s estimte. Sources: CES nd Eurostt dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. 5 Privte sector Public Industry Services b Totl sector RAD- JOPPD Public dministrtion nd defence; compulsory socil security, eduction, humn helth; b Wholesle nd retil trde, trnsporttion nd storge, ccommodtion nd food service ctivities. Source: CBS.

9 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER 9 Figure 9 Consumer price index nd core infltion nnulised month-on-month rte of chnge Figure HWWI index (excl. energy) = Consumer price index Core infltion HWWI index (USD) HWWI index (HRK) The month-on-month rte of chnge is clculted bsed on the qurterly moving verge of sesonlly djusted consumer price indices. Sources: CBS nd CNB clcultions. Sources: HWWI nd CNB clcultions. Figure Yer-on-yer infltion rtes nd components contribution to consumer price infltion Figure Dily nominl exchnge rte HRK vs. EUR, USD nd CHF CNB midpoint exchnge rte percentge points Energy Processed food Services Consumer price index () Unprocessed food Industril non-food without energy Core infltion () EUR/HRK left USD/HRK right CHF/HRK right Core infltion does not include griculturl product prices nd dministrtive prices. Sources: CBS nd CNB clcultions. Figure Crude oil prices (Brent) USD/brrel Brent (USD/brrel) left Sources: Bloomberg nd CNB clcultions. Brent (HRK/brrel) right HRK/brrel Tble Price indictors yer-on-yer nd month-on-month rtes of chnge Yer-on-yer rtes Month-onmonth rtes / / /5 / Consumer price index nd its components Totl index.... Energy..9.. Unprocessed food..9.. Processed food (incl. lcoholic drinks nd tobcco).5... Industril non-food without energy..5.. Services.... Other price indictors Core infltion..7.. Index of industril producer prices on the domestic mrket.... Brent crude oil price (USD) HWWI index (excl. energy) The index is clculted on the bsis of rw mterils prices expressed in US dollrs. Sources: CBS, Bloomberg, HWWI nd Eurostt.

10 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Figure Nominl nd rel effective exchnge rtes of the kun Figure 7 CDS spreds for 5-yer government bonds of selected countries = Nominl left Rel (ULC totl economy) left Rel (ULC mnufcturing) left Rel (PPI) right Rel (CPI) left 5 Note: Rel effective exchnge rte of the kun deflted by producer prices includes the Crotin index of industril producer prices on the non-domestic mrket, which is vilble from Jnury. Rel effective exchnge rte of the kun deflted by unit lbour costs is the result of the interpoltion of qurterly vlues. A fll in the index denotes n effective pprecition of the kun = bsis points Croti Polnd Czech R. Bulgri Romni Hungry Slovk R. Itly Germny Note: Credit defult swps (CDS) spred is n nnul premium tht CDS buyer pys for protection ginst credit risk ssocited with n issuer of n instrument. Source: Bloomberg. Figure 5 Contributions of individul currencies to the monthly rte of chnge of the verge index of the nominl effective kun exchnge rte (INEER) Figure CDS spreds for selected prent bnks of domestic bnks percentge points bsis points EUR USD CHF Other currencies INEER () Unicredit S.p.A. Erste Group Bnk Intes Snpolo S.p.A. Société Générle Riffeisen Zentrlbnk Negtive vlues denote contributions to the pprecition of the INEER. Source: Bloomberg. Figure Interest rtes on the euro nd the verge yield spred on bonds of Europen emerging mrket countries Figure 9 Averge interest rte on the money mrket dily dt, on nnul bsis 5 5 bsis points ECB benchmrk rte left EONIA left M EURIBOR left EMBI spreds for Europen emerging mrket countries right Interest rte on overnight lons in direct interbnk trding until end- left Interest rte on overnight lons in direct interbnk trding since the beginning of right Sources: ECB, Bloomberg nd J. P. Morgn.

11 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Figure Interest rtes on kun nd euro T-bills on uction dys Figure Averge interest rtes on new time deposits mturing in three months on nnul bsis dy T-bill -dy T-bill -dy T-bill 7-dy T-bill 9-dy T-bill (EUR) -dy T-bill (EUR) -dy T-bill (EUR FX) 5/57-dy T-bill (EUR FX) 5 Kun corporte deposits non-indexed to f/c Euro corporte deposits Kun household deposits non-indexed to f/c Euro household deposits Figure Averge interest rtes on lons (excl. revolving lons) nd deposits on nnul bsis Figure Spred between interest rtes on lons (excl. revolving lons) nd interest rtes on deposits on nnul bsis 5 Lons new Deposits new Lons blnces Deposits blnces For time deposits, interest rtes on newly received deposits re weighted by their blnces. 5 Lons in kun Deposits in kun Lons in kun b Deposits in f/c Totl new Totl blnces Non-indexed to f/c. b Indexed to f/c. Note: Spred between verge interest rtes on lons nd verge interest rtes on deposits should be differentited from net interest mrgin (the rtio of the difference between interest income nd interest expenses to totl ssets of credit institutions). Figure Averge interest rtes on new kun lons (excl. revolving lons) on nnul bsis Figure 5 Net foreign ssets, net domestic ssets nd totl liquid ssets (M) bsolute chnge in the lst months 5 Short-term corporte lons non-indexed to f/c Long-term corporte lons indexed to f/c Short-term household lons non-indexed to f/c Long-term household lons indexed to f/c 5 Net foreign ssets Net domestic ssets M

12 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Figure Net domestic ssets, structure bsolute chnge in the lst months Figure 9 Plcements to households Net plcements to the government Other net ssets Plcements Net domestic ssets Trnsctions in household plcements left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Figure 7 Plcements Figure Structure of credit institution plcements Trnsctions in totl plcements left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Plcements to other sectors Plcements to the centrl government Plcements to households Plcements to corportes Figure Plcements to corportes Figure Credit institution nd MMF plcements to the centrl government Trnsctions in corporte plcements left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge right Plcements to the centrl government (blnce) left

13 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Figure Money (M) Figure 5 Kun svings nd time deposits Yer-on-yer rte of chnge right M (blnce) left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge right Kun deposits (blnce) left Figure Totl liquid ssets (M) Figure Foreign currency deposits Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right M (blnce) left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Foreign currency deposits (blnce) left Figure Structure of M monetry ggregte Figure 7 Bnk liquidity nd overnight interbnk interest rte M Kun deposits Foreign currency deposits Bonds, money mrket instruments nd MMFs shres/units 5 5 Liquidity surplus (incl. overnight deposits with the CNB) right Overnight interbnk interest rte left Note: Liquidity surplus is the difference between the blnce in bnk settlement ccounts with the CNB nd the mount tht bnks re required to hold in their ccounts fter the clcultion of reserve requirements.

14 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER Figure Spot trnsctions in the foreign exchnge mrket (net turnover) Figure 5 Finncil ccount flows s of GDP.5 5 Bnk trnsctions with legl persons Bnk trnsctions with foreign bnks Totl bnk trnsctions Bnk trnsctions with nturl persons Bnk trnsctions with the CNB CNB trnsctions with government nd EC 5 Direct investment left Portfolio investment left Finncil derivtives left Other investment left Chnge in interntionl reserves left Totl net flows (four-qurter moving verge) right Note: Positive vlues denote net purchses nd negtive vlues denote net sles. Legl persons include the government. Note: A positive vlue denotes net outflow of equity brod (including on the bsis of the growth in interntionl reserves). Figure 9 Interntionl reserves of the CNB t current rte of exchnge Figure 5 Finncil ccount flows by types of investments 5 9 s of GDP Interntionl reserves Net usble interntionl reserves 5 Equity libilities, net left Finncil derivtives left Debt libilities, net (excl. the chnge in interntionl reserves) left Chnge in CNB s libilities Chnge in interntionl reserves left Totl net cpitl flows (in the lst four qurters) right Totl net cpitl flows excl. the chnge in interntionl reserves (in the lst four qurters) right 9 NUIR = interntionl reserves foreign libilities reserve requirements in f/c foreign currency government deposits. Note: A positive vlue denotes net outflow of equity brod (including on the bsis of the growth in interntionl reserves). Net libilities represent the difference between the chnge in ssets nd the chnge in libilities. Figure 5 Current ccount flows Tble Blnce of pyments preliminry dt, in million EUR Indices s of GDP 5 / 5 / Current ccount Cpitl ccount Finncil ccount (excl. reserves) Interntionl reserves Net errors nd omissions In line with the th edition of the Blnce of Pyments nd Interntionl Investment Secondry income left Services left Primry income left Goods left Current ccount (four-qurter moving verge) right Position Mnul (BPM).

15 CNB BULLETIN NUMBER 5 Figure 5 Net externl debt (NED) trnsctions Tble Government budget deficit ccording to ESA, in million HRK Jn. 5 Jn. Revenue 7,5 7,9 Disposl of non-finncil ssets Expense 9,9,9 Acquisition of non-finncil ssets 5 Net borrowing ( + ),, Sources: MoF nd CNB clcultions. 5 Generl government Crotin Ntionl Bnk Other MFIs Other sectors Direct investment Totl Trnsctions refer to the chnge in debt excl. cross-currency chnges nd other djustments. Net externl debt is clculted s gross externl debt stock net of foreign debt clims. Note: Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury. Figure 5 Gross externl debt (GED) trnsctions Tble Generl government debt in million HRK Jn. Dec. Jn. Dec. 5 Chnge in totl debt stock, 5,5 Chnge in domestic debt stock 9, 5,59 Securities other thn shres, short-term,97 5, Securities other thn shres, long-term,79,5 Lons,7 Chnge in externl debt stock, Securities other thn shres, short-term 5 Securities other thn shres, long-term,99, Lons,77,95 Memo item: Chnge in totl gurntees issued Generl government Crotin Ntionl Bnk Other MFIs Other sectors Direct investment Totl Trnsctions refer to the chnge in debt excl. cross-currency chnges nd other djustments. Note: Dt for the first qurter of refer to Jnury. Figure 55 Gross externl debt end of period 5 5 Generl government Crotin Ntionl Bnk Other MFIs Other sectors Direct investment

16 Abbrevitions nd symbols Abbrevitions BIS Bnk for Interntionl Settlements bn billion b.p. bsis points BOP blnce of pyments c.i.f. cost, insurnce nd freight CBRD Crotin Bnk for Reconstruction nd Development CBS Centrl Bureu of Sttistics CCI consumer confidence index CDCC Centrl Depository nd Clering Compny Inc. CDS credit defult swp CEE Centrl nd Estern Europen CEFTA Centrl Europen Free Trde Agreement CEI consumer expecttions index CES Crotin Employment Service CM Crotin Motorwys CIHI Crotin Institute for Helth Insurnce CLVPS Crotin Lrge Vlue Pyment System CNB Crotin Ntionl Bnk CPF Crotin Privtistion Fund CPI consumer price index CPIA Crotin Pension Insurnce Administrtion CR Crotin Rods CSI consumer sentiment index DAB Stte Agency for Deposit Insurnce nd Bnk Resolution dep. deposit DVP delivery versus pyment EC Europen Commission ECB Europen Centrl Bnk EFTA Europen Free Trde Assocition EMU Economic nd Monetry Union ESI economic sentiment index EU Europen Union excl. excluding f/c foreign currency FDI foreign direct investment Fed Federl Reserve System FINA Finncil Agency FISIM finncil intermedition services indirectly mesured f.o.b. free on bord GDP gross domestic product GVA gross vlue dded HANFA Crotin Finncil Services Supervisory Agency HICP hrmonised index of consumer prices ILO Interntionl Lbour Orgniztion IMF Interntionl Monetry Fund incl. including IPO initil public offering m million MIGs min industril groupings MM monthly mturity MoF Ministry of Finnce NCA Ntionl Clssifiction of Activities NCB ntionl centrl bnk NCS Ntionl Clering System n.e.c. not elsewhere clssified OECD Orgnistion for Economic Co-Opertion nd Development OG Officil Gzette R Republic o/w of which PPI producer price index RTGS Rel-Time Gross Settlement Q qurterly RR reserve requirement SDR specil drwing rights SITC Stndrd Interntionl Trde Clssifiction VAT vlue dded tx WTO World Trde Orgniztion ZMM Zgreb Money Mrket ZSE Zgreb Stock Exchnge Three-letter currency codes ATS Austrin schilling CHF Swiss frnc CNY Yun Renminbi DEM Germn mrk EUR euro FRF French frnc GBP pound sterling HRK Crotin kun ITL Itlin lir JPY Jpnese yen USD US dollr Two-letter country codes BG Bulgri CZ Czech R. EE Estoni HR Croti HU Hungry LV Ltvi LT Lithuni PL Polnd RO Romni SK Slovk R. SI Sloveni Symbols no entry... dt not vilble vlue is less thn.5 of the unit of mesure being used verge, b, c,... indictes note beneth the tble nd figure * corrected dt ( ) incomplete or insufficiently verified dt