UBS European Conference. Stefan Lippe, Chief Executive Officer 16 November 2011

Transcription

1 UBS Europen Conference Stefn Lippe, Chief Executive Officer 16 November 2011

2 The rodmp Build on wht we re good t Outperform our peers Reinsurnce Admin Re Asset Mngement Smrt expnsion Corporte Solutions Longevity Emerging Mrkets The leding plyer in the wholesle re/insurnce industry 2 Three Business Units to support our priorities Swiss Re Holding Reinsurnce Corporte Solutions Admin Re Mission To be the world's leding reinsurer To be len, globl plyer in lrge commercil business To be recognised force in the closed life book mrket Business positioning The foundtion of our strengths A key opportunity for growth Providing diversified ernings Underwriting qulity is core to Swiss Re's DNA 3

3 Chllenging mrket environment 4 The interest rte shock deepens 5-yer tresury bonds Low yields pressure ROE US UK Germny Source: Swiss Re Economic Reserch nd Consulting % 18% 16% 14% ROI: 5,9% ROE 12% 10% % ROI: 3,5% 6% % 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% Combined rtio Aggregte of eight mjor P&C mrkets Source: Swiss Re Economic Reserch nd Consulting The interest rte shock is fr more significnt thn the nturl ctstrophes Combined rtios need to keep djusting to the low interest rte environment 5

4 The P&C reinsurnce cycle Drivers of mrket turn P&L Soft mrket pricing since 2008 Reserve releses not sustinble US P&C primry underwriting csh flows 20% 10% Record low interest rtes pressure technicl results Nturl ctstrophe events of % -10% Source: Swiss Re Economic Reserch nd Consulting Cshflows Decline driven by soft mrket Cpitl Solvency rtios still pper solid, prtly due to flling interest rtes? Reinsurnce cpitl H1 Shreholders equity nd premiums, 2005 = 100 Source: Swiss Re Economic Reserch nd Consulting 6

5 Swiss Re is well positioned to cpture mrket opportunities 7 Growth drivers for Swiss Re Short-term Growth drivers next 2 yers Hrdening of P&C mrket Berkshire Hthwy quot shre ends 2012 Higher cpitl demnds nd further industry consolidtion Emerging mrket growth Swiss Re opportunities Reblncing our Csulty portfolio, Reinsurnce nd Corporte Solutions Adds 25% potentil growth in P&C Reinsurnce nd Corporte Solutions Admin Re Lrge dels P&C nd L&H Reinsurnce Reinsurnce nd Corporte Solutions Lrge dels P&C nd L&H 8

6 Swiss Re s successful 2011 renewls Rising prices, higher volumes Totl trety portfolio, premiums s costed July 2011 renewls April 2011 renewls 1 USD 2.04bn 100% Renewble 01 July 2011 USD 1.07bn 100% Renewble 01 April 2011 USD 2.20bn 108% Estimted outcome USD 1.80bn 168% Estimted outcome YTD 2011 renewls (Jnury July) Totl trety portfolio USD 10.23bn 100% USD 12.23bn 120% Jnury 2011 renewls USD 7.12bn 100% USD 8.23bn 116% Renewble YTD 2011 Estimted outcome Renewble 01 Jnury 2011 Estimted outcome Strong growth in Jnury/April driven by solvency relief trnsctions, minly in Asi Yer-to-dte, Swiss Re's trety portfolio grew by 20% nd rte dequcy ws mintined 1 New solvency driven trnsctions in Asi were concluded fter the first qurter, nd hve been formlly ccounted for in April 2011 renewls Figures hve been restted with current fx rtes 9 Conservtive sset portfolio Bulk of invested ssets in csh, short-term investments, tresuries or government bcked gencies 59% of proprietry investment portfolio t end Q Miniml exposure to peripherl EU sovereigns Totl USD 74m, Greece nil, t end Q Conservtive medium-term sset lloction pln Comprtively low-risk, very controlled pproch to sset mngement 10

7 Finncil trgets Committed to chieving our finncil trgets Trget FY Q Q Q M 2011 ROE: 700 bps bove risk free verge over 5 yers 2 9.2% -10.7% 15.6% 20.5% 8.2% EPS: 10% verge nnul growth rte over 5 yers (in USD) 3 ENW per shre: growth plus dividend 10% verge nnul growth rte over 5 yers (in 89.7 n.. n.. n.. n.. USD) 3 1 ROE nd EPS shown excluding CPCI 2 Risk free rte: US Gov 5 yers: 31 Dec 2010: 2.01%, 31 Mr 2011: 2.28%, 30 Jun 2011: 1.76%, 30 Sep 2011: 0.95% 3 Bsis: FY Swiss Re is well positioned Excellent cpitlistion, strong recent finncil results Conservtive sset portfolio to nvigte through difficult mrkets, miniml exposure to peripherl EU sovereigns (t end Q3 2011: USD 74m) S&P upgrde to AA- Deep understnding of risk nd underwriting, s evidenced by our effective cycle mngement nd focus on economic profit Strong July renewls, leding to ernings growth; P&C mrket turn underwy New group structure, will id trnsprency of business unit performnce Idelly positioned to cpture growth opportunities bsed on strong cpitlistion, excellent client frnchise nd innovtion power We re well on trck to chieving our finncil trgets 12

8 Questions & nswers 13 Corporte clendr & contcts Corporte clendr 23 Februry 2012 Annul Results Zurich 13 April th Annul Generl Meeting Zurich 17 April 2012 Investors' Dy London 04 My 2012 First Qurter 2012 results Conference cll 09 August 2012 Second Qurter 2012 results Conference cll Investor Reltions contcts Hotline E-mil Eric Schuh Ross Wlker Chris Menth Simone Lieberherr Simone Fessler

9 Cutionry note on forwrd-looking sttements Certin sttements nd illustrtions contined herein re forwrd-looking. These sttements nd illustrtions provide current expecttions of future events bsed on certin ssumptions nd include ny sttement tht does not directly relte to historicl fct or current fct. Forwrd-looking sttements typiclly re identified by words or phrses such s nticipte, ssume, believe, continue, estimte, expect, foresee, intend, my increse nd my fluctute nd similr expressions or by future or conditionl verbs such s will, should, would nd could. These forwrd-looking sttements involve known nd unknown risks, uncertinties nd other fctors, which my cuse Swiss Re s ctul results, performnce, chievements or prospects to be mterilly different from ny future results, performnce, chievements or prospects expressed or implied by such sttements. Such fctors include, mong others: further instbility ffecting the globl finncil system nd developments relted thereto; chnges in globl economic conditions; Swiss Re s bility to mintin sufficient liquidity nd ccess to cpitl mrkets, including sufficient liquidity to cover potentil recpture of reinsurnce greements, erly clls of debt or debt-like rrngements nd collterl clls under derivtive contrcts due to ctul or perceived deteriortion of Swiss Re s finncil strength; the effect of mrket conditions, including the globl equity nd credit mrkets, nd the level nd voltility of equity prices, interest rtes, credit spreds, currency vlues nd other mrket indices, on Swiss Re s investment ssets; chnges in Swiss Re s investment result s result of chnges in its investment policy or the chnged composition of its investment ssets, nd the impct of the timing of ny such chnges reltive to chnges in mrket conditions; uncertinties in vluing credit defult swps nd other credit-relted instruments; possible inbility to relise mounts on sles of securities on Swiss Re s blnce sheet equivlent to its mrk-to-mrket vlues recorded for ccounting purposes; the outcome of tx udits, the bility to relise tx loss crryforwrds nd the bility to relise deferred tx ssets (including by reson of the mix of ernings in jurisdiction or deemed chnge of control), which could negtively impct future ernings; the possibility tht hedging rrngements my not be effective; the lowering or loss of finncil strength or other rtings of one or more of the compnies in the Swiss Re group or developments dversely ffecting the bility to chieve improved rtings; the cycliclity of the reinsurnce industry; uncertinties in estimting reserves; uncertinties in estimting future clims for purposes of finncil reporting, prticulrly with respect to lrge nturl ctstrophes, s significnt uncertinties my be involved in estimting losses from such events nd preliminry estimtes my be subject to chnge s new informtion becomes vilble; the frequency, severity nd development of insured clim events; cts of terrorism nd cts of wr; mortlity nd morbidity experience; policy renewl nd lpse rtes; extrordinry events ffecting Swiss Re s clients nd other counterprties, such s bnkruptcies, liquidtions nd other credit-relted events; current, pending nd future legisltion nd regultion ffecting Swiss Re or its ceding compnies, nd regultory or legl ctions; chnges in ccounting stndrds; significnt investments, cquisitions or dispositions, nd ny delys, unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with ny such trnsctions, including, in the cse of cquisitions, issues rising in connection with integrting cquired opertions; chnging levels of competition; opertionl fctors, including the efficcy of risk mngement nd other internl procedures in mnging the foregoing risks; nd chllenges in implementtion, dverse responses of counterprties, regultors or rting gencies, or other issues rising from, or otherwise relting to, the chnges in Swiss Re's corporte structure. These fctors re not exhustive. Swiss Re opertes in continully chnging environment nd new risks emerge continully. Reders re cutioned not to plce undue relince on forwrd-looking sttements. Swiss Re undertkes no obligtion to publicly revise or updte ny forwrd-looking sttements, whether s result of new informtion, future events or otherwise. 15