Annual results Analyst and investor meeting Zurich, 17 February 2011
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1 Anlyst nd investor meeting Zurich, 17 Februry 2011
2 Tody s gend Introduction Progress updte Business performnce nd trgets Renewls nd outlook Questions & nswers Susn Hollidy, Hed IR Stefn Lippe, CEO George Quinn, CFO Stefn Lippe, CEO 2
3 Introduction Susn Hollidy, Hed IR 3
4 Progress updte Stefn Lippe, CEO 4 Progress updte Cpitl strength more thn restored, rtings outlook positive Client frnchise protected nd strengthened Efficiency progrm completed Legcy run-off essentilly complete CPCI terminted nd repid hed of schedule Cler strtegic priorities Aligned mngement structure Next step is to djust the orgnistion's legl structure to support strtegic priorities nd tke full dvntge of our strong position 5
5 Business performnce nd trgets George Quinn, CFO Highlights Strong progress, substntilly higher dividend Strong growth in net income, up 74% to USD 0.9bn (USD 2.3bn excl. CPCI) Continued very strong P&C performnce (combined rtio 93.9%), good results from L&H nd Asset Mngement Legcy de-risking gols chieved nd CPCI terminted erly (repid Jnury 2011) CPCI termintion bsorbed by internl cpitl genertion, shreholders' equity flt t USD 25.3bn Book vlue per shre up 11.8% to USD (CHF 68.99) CHF 2.75 dividend 1 proposed, to be pid from reserves from cpitl contributions 1 Swiss withholding tx exempt distribution out of reserves from cpitl contributions Excl. CPCI refers to excluding ll impcts relting to the CPCI (interest, premium, FX remesurement) see Appendix for more detil 7
6 Key figures USD, unless otherwise stted FY 2009 FY 2010 Q Group net income bn 0.9 bn -0.7bn Group net income excl. CPCI 2 0.7bn 2.3bn 0.5bn P&C combined rtio 88.3% 93.9% 88.8% Return on equity published 2.3% 3.6% -11.0% Return on equity excl. CPCI 2 3.3% 9.2% 7.1% Ernings per shre published (USD) (CHF) Ernings per shre excl. CPCI (USD) (CHF) Shreholders equity bn 25.3bn Book vlue per shre (USD) (CHF) Group net income ttributble to shreholders (fter CPCI nd excluding non-controlling interests) 2 Excl. CPCI refers to excluding ll impcts relting to the CPCI (interest, premium, FX remesurement) 3 Shreholders equity excluding non-controlling interests 4 Bsic BVPS, excluding CPCI nd non-controlling interests 8 Property & Csulty Very good result despite higher lrge loss experience Premiums erned Operting income USD m USD m -14.9% -29.5% Combined rtio, trd. % 88.3% (86.5% excl. unwind) +5.6pts. 93.9% (92.3% excl. unwind) FY 2009 FY2010 Decrese reflects ctive portfolio steering decisions tken during the Jnury 2010 renewls FY 2009 FY2010 Reduction minly driven by higher lrge loss experience nd lower net investment income FY2009 FY2010 Nt ct impct for 2010 is 3% pts bove expected level, while in 2009 nt ct impct ws 4%pts below expecttion Q combined rtio 88.8%, nt ct impct 2%pts below expecttions Fvourble net reserve development in 2010 of 0.8%pts 9
7 Property & Csulty Very strong underwriting but high lrge loss experience P&C trditionl combined rtios %, premiums nd operting income in USD m FY 2009 FY 2010 Min drivers of chnge Premiums Operting income CR Q Property 70.1% 86.6% Increse driven by higher nt ct experience in % Csulty Libility Motor Accident (A&H) Specilty Credit 106.8% 111.4% 98.2% 113.6% 92.1% 100.9% 114.6% 120.4% 106.6% 114.2% 80.8% 69.6% 2010 impcted by high loss experience, including Deepwter Horizon Unfvourble premium updtes nd prior yer development In line, low volume Improved technicl mrgin fter 2010 portfolio chnges, better net clims experience Modest improvement Other Specilty 87.7% 85.5% Totl trditionl 88.3% 93.9% excl. unwind 86.5% 92.3% Totl non-trd Totl % 116.0% 116.8% 97.0% 78.8% 80.9% 77.7% % 87.2% 10 Life & Helth Significnt improvement in operting performnce Operting revenues Operting income Benefit rtio 1 USD m USD m % -9.0% +17.9% +4.9pts FY 2009 FY 2010 Excluding FX nd retrocession, premiums nd fees were 3% higher thn in FY 2009, driven by new trditionl life business in Asi nd Americs nd new trditionl helth business, primrily in Asi FY 2009 FY 2010 Mortlity experience better thn expecttions, but less fvourble thn prior yer Morbidity within expecttions for both periods Investment income USD 156m lower thn FY 2009 VA nd pre-2000 GMDB gin of USD 112m (FY 2009 loss of USD 594m) 2009 includes USD 331m from rbitrtion wrd 83.8% 88.7% FY 2009 FY 2010 Approximtely 2% point increse relted to the effect of the prior yer rescission of disbility contrct nd certin commuttions Approximtely 3% point increse ttributed to less fvourble mortlity / morbidity experience 1 Benefit rtio excludes the impct of VA & pre-2000 GMDB from ll periods presented 11
8 Asset Mngement Strong nd stble performnce Operting income 1 Return on Investments Totl return 2 USD m % % +23% +1.7pts +4.2pts % 6.5% FY 2009 FY 2010 AM investment portfolio of USD 143.7bn (excl. unit-linked nd with-profit) AM fixed income running yield of 4.1%, Q % Impirments USD 0.3bn (FY 09 USD 1.4bn), Q impirments USD 61m Durtion now mtched 1.8% FY 2009 FY 2010 RoI of 3.0% for rtes, 4.8% for credit nd 3.7% for equities nd lterntive investments Q RoI of 3.3% for rtes, 4.7% for credit nd 2.5% for equity nd lterntive investments 2.3% FY 2009 FY 2010 Totl return of 4.4% for rtes, 10.3% for credit nd 11.4% for equities nd lterntive investments Totl return driven by lower interest rtes nd positive performnce in credit Q totl return of -5.9% driven by higher interest rtes 1 Minority interests included in operting income but excluded from the RoI nd totl return 2 Totl return includes chnge in unrelised gins/losses 12 Legcy Process essentilly complete Operting income split USD m FY 2009 FY 2010 Finncil Gurntee Re Former Trding Activities Totl Key de-risking gols chieved Now focused on run-off of lower risk positions Legcy will no longer be reported s seprte segment from 2011 nd will be included s prt of Group Items 13
9 Totl equity FY 2010 Internl cpitl genertion offsets CPCI termintion USD m Gov bonds 1.1 Corp bonds 0.4 Sec products 1.8 Equities nd others Tx -1.0 Totl Dec 2009 CPCI termintion Net income ttributble to common shreholders Dividends pid Other Foreign currency trnsltion djustments Net chnge in unrelised gins/losses Shreholders' equity 31 Dec 2010 Non controlling 1 interests Totl equity 31 Dec See pge 27 of 2010 Finncil Review for detils 14 Swiss Re s cpitl Cpitl dequcy remins excellent Estimted Group cpitl dequcy mesures s of 31 December 2010 Swiss Solvency Test / Internl model >200% SST green zone threshold: 100% S&P excess cpitl over AA level >USD 10bn Internl gol: meet AA requirements Solvency I >200% Minimum regultory requirement: 100% 15
10 Cpitl mngement Return to norml dividend Strong cpitl position llows Swiss Re to return to norml dividend policy nd tke dvntge of business growth opportunities Therefore the BoD will propose to the AGM Dividend of CHF 2.75 per shre, in the form of tx exempt distribution from legl reserves from cpitl contributions, totl reserves vilble CHF 9.8bn Cpitl motions will be presented to the AGM in April to simplify the cpitl structure nd improve flexibility We expect to utilize existing excess cpitl in the business; if the cpitl cnnot be deployed t ttrctive returns we will undertke further cpitl mngement ctions 16 Finncil trgets Bckground For Swiss Re, volumes nd mrgins re expected to grow over the next five yers Cpcity intensive, bespoke trnsctions for globl clients re ttrctive, driven by regultory chnge nd require globl expertise nd high levels of cpcity Csulty pricing will respond s recent indequte levels become obvious L&H mrgins improve s economic models gin credibility, volumes will grow s economic recovery stimultes demnd (offset by reduced cession rtes) Higher growth in emerging mrkets will continue with improving mrgins Expenses will rise more slowly thn volumes, s our competitiveness in regionl nd ntionl mrkets improves Our centrl economic view is similr to the mrket (interest rtes, infltion, generl economic ctivity) Our objective is to chieve ttrctive returns tht re not relint on mcro economic fctors 17
11 Finncil trgets Credible but mbitious trgets ROE 700 bps bove risk free verge over 5 yers EPS growth 10% verge nnul growth rte over 5 yers ENW per shre growth plus dividend 10% verge nnul growth rte over 5 yers in % in USD sf 6.6 vg. nnul growth rte 2011E-15E 10% in USD vg. nnul growth rte 2011E-15E 10% E vg. 2015E 2011E- 2015E ROE published ROE excl. CPCI E illustrtive EPS published EPS excl. CPCI illustrtive ENW per shre 2015E illustrtive Risk free: US Gov 5 yers ENW 2010 to be published 24 Mrch Assumes constnt foreign exchnge rte 18 Improving returns nd cpturing future ernings growths 75% 11.0% ~2% P&C growth - expiry of quot shre, incresed demnd driven by regultory chnges, improvement in csulty mrket prtly offset by slightly reduced mrgins 50% L&H new business growth driven by regultory chnges nd economic growth 25% Interest effect on shreholders' equity nd dividends 9.2% Chnges to sset lloction in line with medium term pln 0% 2010 ROE excl. CPCI vg ROE Interest rtes hve limited impct on ernings but cn hve significnt impct on reported shreholders' equity 19
12 Renewls nd outlook Stefn Lippe, CEO 20 Jnury 2011 renewls Strong growth underlines client frnchise Totl trety portfolio USD 6.8bn USD 7.8bn 100% 80% 60% 40% 100% -27% 73% 7% 32% 2% 114% 20% 0% Totl renewble 01 Jn 2011 Cncelled or replced Renewed Increse on renewl New business/ replcement Pending Estimted outcome Incresed demnd for tilored solutions from lrge clients Strong growth from incresed client demnd, especilly in high growth mrkets including Asi, combined with better terms nd conditions 21
13 Jnury 2011 renewls Portfolio qulity Risk djusted price dequcy Trety portfolio 110% 108% 105% 106% 100% Jnury 2010 Jnury 2011 Averge reinsurnce mrket prices declined by 4-7% Swiss Re ws ble to outperform the mrket bsed on its disciplined underwriting nd success on non-commodity plcements Swiss Re's risk-djusted price dequcy fell by 2% 2011 combined rtio estimted t 94%, ssuming norml lrge loss burden US GAAP combined rtio, including unwind of discount 22 Our strting position Cpitl strength re-estblished Termintion of convertible perpetul cpitl instrument Significnt excess cpitl bove AA, positive rting outlooks Prepred for SST/Solvency II Strong client frnchise Cutious sset mngement positioning Top qulity P&C portfolio with industry leding operting performnce One of the biggest L&H plyers with outstnding mortlity risk expertise Legcy run-off substntilly completed Conservtive investment portfolio focussed on sset libility mtching Incresed efficiency Fit to compete cost sving progrmme completed with reduction in costs of CHF 420m 23
14 The rodmp Build on wht we re good t Outperform our peers Reinsurnce Admin Re Asset Mngement Smrt expnsion Corporte Solutions Longevity Emerging Mrkets The leding plyer in the wholesle re/insurnce industry 24 Focus on three distinct businesses Holding Reinsurnce Corporte Solutions Admin Re Mission To be the world's leding reinsurer To be len, globl plyer in lrge commercil business To be recognised force in the closed life book mrket Business positioning The foundtion of our strengths A key opportunity for growth Providing diversified ernings Subject to pplicble securities lw restrictions see "Importnt notice for holders of Swiss Re securities" 25
15 Objectives of new corporte structure Shrpen focus on individul client needs with three distinct Business Units with tilored strtegies nd differentited product nd service delivery to fully cpitlize on ttrctive growth opportunities Increse trnsprency over llocted cpitl nd ssets, performnce, nd vlue of individul Business Units Address proctively regultory demnd for greter trnsprency on lrge interntionl insurnce groups Increse ccountbility through full ccountbility for the entire business performnce including P&L nd blnce sheet Strengthen flexibility to cpitlise on emerging opportunities Deploy cpitl to businesses with the most economic vlue potentil 26 Growth drivers for Swiss Re Growth drivers next 3 yers Hrdening of P&C mrket Berkshire Hthwy quot shre ends 2012 Higher cpitl demnds nd further industry consolidtion Recovery of globl economy Emerging mrket growth Swiss Re opportunities Reblncing our Csulty portfolio, Reinsurnce nd Corporte Solutions Adds 25% potentil growth in P&C Reinsurnce nd Corporte Solutions Admin Re Lrge dels P&C nd L&H Reinsurnce Reinsurnce P&C nd L&H Corporte Solutions Asset Mngement s we move to our medium term sset lloction Reinsurnce nd Corporte Solutions Lrge dels P&C nd L&H 27
16 Summry nd outlook Successful Jnury renewls; incresed client demnd nd growth in ll regions Proposed dividend of CHF 2.75, free of Swiss withholding nd income txes Future growth driven by improving cycle, incresed solvency relted demnd from clients nd M&A in the sector Estblishing group structure to fit with our business priorities, so incresing ccountbility, trnsprency nd flexibility of the business model We re fully focussed on improving returns nd cpturing future ernings growth 28
17 Questions & nswers 29 Corporte clendr & contcts Corporte clendr 25 Mrch 2011 Investors' Dy Zurich 15 April th Annul Generl Meeting Zurich 05 My 2011 First Qurter 2011 results Conference cll 04 August 2011 Second Qurter 2011 results Conference cll 03 November 2011 Third Qurter 2011 results Conference cll 09 December 2011 Investors' Dy Investor Reltions contcts Hotline E-mil Susn Hollidy Ross Wlker Chris Menth Simone Lieberherr Simone Fessler
18 Cutionry note on forwrd-looking sttements Certin sttements nd illustrtions contined herein re forwrd-looking. These sttements nd illustrtions provide current expecttions of future events bsed on certin ssumptions nd include ny sttement tht does not directly relte to historicl fct or current fct. Forwrd-looking sttements typiclly re identified by words or phrses such s nticipte, ssume, believe, continue, estimte, expect, foresee, intend, my increse nd my fluctute nd similr expressions or by future or conditionl verbs such s will, should, would nd could. These forwrd-looking sttements involve known nd unknown risks, uncertinties nd other fctors, which my cuse Swiss Re s ctul results, performnce, chievements or prospects to be mterilly different from ny future results, performnce, chievements or prospects expressed or implied by such sttements. Such fctors include, mong others: further instbility ffecting the globl finncil system nd developments relted thereto; chnges in globl economic conditions; Swiss Re s bility to mintin sufficient liquidity nd ccess to cpitl mrkets, including sufficient liquidity to cover potentil recpture of reinsurnce greements, erly clls of debt or debt-like rrngements nd collterl clls under derivtive contrcts due to ctul or perceived deteriortion of Swiss Re s finncil strength; the effect of mrket conditions, including the globl equity nd credit mrkets, nd the level nd voltility of equity prices, interest rtes, credit spreds, currency vlues nd other mrket indices, on Swiss Re s investment ssets; chnges in Swiss Re s investment result s result of chnges in its investment policy or the chnged composition of its investment ssets, nd the impct of the timing of ny such chnges reltive to chnges in mrket conditions; uncertinties in vluing credit defult swps nd other credit-relted instruments; possible inbility to relise mounts on sles of securities on Swiss Re s blnce sheet equivlent to its mrk-to-mrket vlues recorded for ccounting purposes; the outcome of tx udits, the bility to relise tx loss crryforwrds nd the bility to relise deferred tx ssets (including by reson of the mix of ernings in jurisdiction or deemed chnge of control), which could negtively impct future ernings; the possibility tht hedging rrngements my not be effective; the lowering or loss of finncil strength or other rtings of one or more of the compnies in the Group or developments dversely ffecting the bility to chieve improved rtings; the cycliclity of the reinsurnce industry; uncertinties in estimting reserves; the frequency, severity nd development of insured clim events; cts of terrorism nd cts of wr; mortlity nd morbidity experience; policy renewl nd lpse rtes; extrordinry events ffecting Swiss Re s clients nd other counterprties, such s bnkruptcies, liquidtions nd other credit-relted events; current, pending nd future legisltion nd regultion ffecting Swiss Re or its ceding compnies, nd regultory or legl ctions; chnges in ccounting stndrds; significnt investments, cquisitions or dispositions, nd ny delys, unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with ny such trnsctions, including, in the cse of cquisitions, issues rising in connection with integrting cquired opertions; chnging levels of competition; nd opertionl fctors, including the efficcy of risk mngement nd other internl procedures in mnging the foregoing risks. These fctors re not exhustive. Swiss Re opertes in continully chnging environment nd new risks emerge continully. Reders re cutioned not to plce undue relince on forwrd-looking sttements. Swiss Re undertkes no obligtion to publicly revise or updte ny forwrd-looking sttements, whether s result of new informtion, future events or otherwise. 31 Importnt notice for holders of Swiss Re securities The bility of Swiss Re shreholders who re not resident in Switzerlnd to ccept the exchnge offer (the Exchnge Offer ) to be lunched for Swiss Re shres ( Swiss Re Shres ) in return for shres ( HoldCo Shres ) of Swiss Re Ltd ( HoldCo ) my be ffected by the lws of the relevnt jurisdictions in which they re locted or of which they re citizens. The Exchnge Offer will not be mde, directly or indirectly, in or into ny jurisdiction outside Switzerlnd where to do so would violte the lws of tht jurisdiction or would require the preprtion of prospectus or registrtion or other qulifiction of the HoldCo Shres. This presenttion is not n offer of securities for sle, or the solicittion of n offer to cquire HoldCo Shres, in ny jurisdiction, including the United Sttes. Informtion for U.S. Shreholders nd U.S. ADS Holders The HoldCo Shres hve not been, nd will not be, registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, s mended (the Securities Act ) or under the securities lw of ny stte or other jurisdiction of the United Sttes. The HoldCo Shres my not be offered, sold or delivered, directly or indirectly, in or into the United Sttes, except pursunt to n pplicble exemption from, or in trnsction not subject to, the registrtion requirements of the Securities Act. Accordingly, unless HoldCo is stisfied, in its sole discretion, tht HoldCo Shres cn be offered, sold or delivered to shreholder in the United Sttes pursunt to n pplicble exemption from, or in trnsction not subject to, the registrtion requirements of the Securities Act, shreholder in the United Sttes tht vlidly ccepts the Exchnge Offer will receive, in lieu of HoldCo Shres to which it would otherwise be entitled under the terms of the Exchnge Offer, the net csh proceeds of the sle of such HoldCo Shres. When mde, the Exchnge Offer will be subject to Regultion 14E of the U.S. Securities Exchnge Act of 1934, s mended (the Exchnge Act ). The Exchnge Offer will be mde in respect of the securities of Swiss compny, nd will be subject to Swiss disclosure requirements. The Exchnge Offer will not be extended to holders (in their cpcities s such) of Americn Depositry Shres representing Swiss Re Shres ( ADSs ). Holders of ADSs will receive notice from JPMorgn Chse Bnk N.A., the depositry (the "ADS Depositry") in respect of the Exchnge Offer. Moreover, t Swiss Re's request, the ADS Depositry will be terminting the ADS progrm. The receipt of csh considertion under the Exchnge Offer by U.S. shreholder my be txble trnsction for U.S. federl income tx purposes nd my be txble trnsction under pplicble U.S. stte nd locl, s well s foreign nd other, tx lws. Europen Economic Are; United Kingdom In the Europen Economic Are, the Exchnge Offer nd documents or other mterils in reltion to the HoldCo Shres will only be ddressed to, nd will only be directed t, (i) qulified investors in relevnt member stte within the mening of Article 2(1)(e) of the Prospectus Directive, s dopted in the relevnt member stte, nd (ii) persons who hold, nd will tender, the equivlent of t lest 50,000 worth of Swiss Re Shres (collectively, permitted prticipnts ). These documents my not be cted or relied upon by persons in the EEA who re not permitted prticipnts. With reference to the U.K. Finncil Services nd Mrkets Act 2000 (Finncil Promotion) Order 2005, s mended (the Order ), the Exchnge Offer nd ny mterils in reltion to the HoldCo Shres will only be directed t persons in the United Kingdom tht re () investment professionls flling within Article 19(5) of the Order or who fll within Article 49(2)() to (d) of the Order; (b) holders of Swiss Re Shres t the time of communiction of the Exchnge Offer nd such mterils; or (c) persons to whom they my otherwise lwfully be communicted (collectively, relevnt persons ). In the United Kingdom, the HoldCo Shres will only be vilble to, nd the Exchnge Offer my only be ccepted by, relevnt persons who re lso permitted prticipnts, nd s such, ny investment or investment ctivity to which this presenttion reltes is vilble only to, nd my be relied upon only by, relevnt persons who re lso permitted prticipnts. Informtion for Shreholders in Hong Kong This presenttion does not constitute n offer, solicittion or invittion to the public in Hong Kong to purchse HoldCo Shres. No steps hve been tken to register prospectus in Hong Kong nd the contents of this presenttion hve not been reviewed by ny regultory uthority in Hong Kong. Unless permitted to do so by the securities lws of Hong Kong, no person my issue or hve in its possession this presenttion or ny other informtion, dvertisement or document relting to the HoldCo Shres, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere tht is directed t, or the contents of which re likely to be ccessed or red by, the public in Hong Kong other thn with respect to the HoldCo Shres tht re intended to be disposed of only to () Professionl Investors within the mening of the Securities nd Futures Ordinnce (CAP. 571) of Hong Kong nd (b) qulifying persons within the mening of the Compnies Ordinnce (CAP. 32), nd ny rules mde thereunder. You re dvised to exercise cution in reltion to the disposition of the HoldCo Shres. 32
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