Information on economic trends

Transcription

1 Informtion on economic trends June 7

2

3 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Summry In the first qurter of 7, rel GDP continued to grow t similr rte s t end-, while the dt vilble for April suggest tht the current dynmics of rel developments were less fvourble t the beginning of the second qurter. Consumer prices incresed by. on monthly level in April, primrily due to the sesonl increse in the prices of clothing nd footwer, wheres infltion reched. on n nnul level. The CNB continued its expnsionry monetry policy, contributing to the continued recovery of the bnks lending ctivity. Viewed on n nnul level, the increse in plcements to non-finncil corportions remined t the level recorded in the previous month, while in the household sector, the nnul growth in plcements picked up owing to the continued increse in kun lending. Ministry of Finnce dt on csh bsis suggest tht the generl government deficit incresed in the first qurter of 7 on n nnul level; however, this ws lrgely ssocited with the pyment of subsidies erlier thn in. According to first CBS estimtes, rel GDP grew by. on n nnul bsis in the first qurter of 7, incresing by. from the previous qurter (Figure ). The increse in economic ctivity ws primrily result of the growth in the exports of goods; however, ll components of domestic demnd went up s well. The stble upwrd trend in household consumption, which begn in erly, thus continued. In ddition, investment ctivity mintined its stedy nd reltively steep rise, while government consumption incresed only slightly in the first three months of 7 from the end of. Such developments in domestic demnd nd exports resulted in noticebly ccelerted growth in the imports of goods nd services. Observed on n nnul level, the GDP growth rte decresed by. percentge points in the first qurter reltive to the preceding qurter s result of the Ester holidys, period in which consumption sors, coming lter (in the Ester holidys fell in the first nd in 7 in the second qurter), nd the smller number of working dys due to the fct tht ws lep yer. The GDP nowcsting model shows tht rel economic ctivity slowed down slightly t the beginning of the second qurter of 7 from the preceding qurter (Figure ). Industril production ws down (.) in April this yer from the preceding qurter verge. The drop ws prticulrly pronounced in the production of energy, while the production of non-durble consumer goods nd cpitl goods stgnted. On the other hnd, the production of durble goods grew (Figures nd ). Observed ccording to NCA, not only ws there drop in energy supply, but ctivity slowed down in mnufcturing s well, primrily due to the fll in the mnufcture of fbricted metl products (except mchinery nd equipment) nd the mnufcture of food products nd beverges. Furthermore, rel retil trde turnover decresed s well for the first time since mid-. A substntil fll in consumer confidence ws observed in April this yer, resulting from poorer expecttions regrding the economic nd finncil sitution, which my be ssocited with the uncertinty round finncil issues relted to the Agrokor group. Consumer confidence improved slightly in My, but remined significntly lower thn in the preceding six months. As regrds business confidence, April nd My were chrcterised by reltively unfvourble developments in industry nd trde. On the other hnd, business optimism in service ctivities remined t level ner tht recorded in the first qurter, while slightly more fvourble developments were observed in construction (Figure ). The beginning of the second qurter of 7 ws mrked by further fvourble developments in the lbour mrket. The number of employed persons in April continued to rise t rte similr to tht in the erly months of the yer, with the highest growth seen in privte sector service ctivities ssocited with tourism (ccommodtion nd food service ctivities nd trde); industry contributed less to the trend (Figure ). Registered unemployment dropped to its lowest level since 7 in April 7 (round thousnd persons, ccording to sesonlly djusted dt), primrily due to strong outflows from the CES register for other resons (minly clerings from the records due to non-complince with legl provisions nd registrtion cncelltion), nd, to smller extent, thnks to new employment. The continued drop in the number of unemployed persons ws reflected in the registered unemployment rte, which fell to. in April 7 (Figure ). At the sme time, the verge gross wge continued to grow, lthough t slower rte thn in erly 7, when it rose substntilly (Figure ). Rel wges grew slower thn nominl wges due to the current rise in consumer prices. Consumer prices rose in April by. from Mrch (Tble ), primrily due to the sesonl increse in the prices of clothing nd footwer, which ws shrper thn in. Prices of numerous food products nd non-lcoholic beverges went up s well, s did hotel nd resturnt services. The increse in prices ws prtilly offset by the drop in the prices of telecommuniction services nd refined petroleum products due to the lower prices of crude oil on the globl mrket. The price of Brent crude oil per brrel dropped from USD.7 t end-mrch to USD. t end April s result of increses in crude oil production nd reserves in the USA. The nnul consumer price infltion rte grew to. in April, up from. in Mrch. The rise ws minly result of trends seen in the prices of energy (Figure ), brought bout by the wning of the effect of the dministrtive cut in the prices of nturl gs in April. The nnul contribution of prices of non-food industril goods without energy (clothing nd footwer) nd prices of unprocessed food (mostly met) trended up s well. Core infltion lso picked up, climbing from. in Mrch to.7 in April, primrily driven by the bove mentioned increse in the prices of clothing nd footwer nd food products (met, milk). Following surge in lte, the dynmics of trde in goods slowed down significntly t the beginning of 7. In spite of tht, totl exports of goods incresed by. in the first qurter reltive to the verge of the preceding qurter (Figure ) owing to the exports of the nrrow ggregte, excluding oil nd refined petroleum products nd ships (.). Prticulrly noteworthy ws the rise in the exports of electricity, medicl nd phrmceuticl products (imported erlier for finishing or distribution to the mrkets of third countries), other chemicl For detils, see Kunovc, D., nd B. Šplt: Nowcsting GDP Using Avilble Monthly Indictors (WP-, October ). The djusted unemployment rte, which uses the dt on the number of persons insured with the CPIA insted of the dt from the JOPPD form in the clcultion, lso continued to decrese nd stood t in April 7.

4 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 products nd metl industry products. At the sme time, the growth in the totl imports of goods ws slower (.7) s consequence of decline in the imports of oil nd refined petroleum products nd ships (Figure ). On the other hnd, the increse in the imports of other goods (.) ws minly ffected by cpitl goods (notbly mchinery specilised for prticulr industries nd metl working mchinery), electricity nd metl industry products, wheres the imports of medicl nd phrmceuticl products trended down. The nominl exchnge rte of the kun ginst the euro pprecited in My ginst the bckdrop of n incresed supply of foreign exchnge on the domestic foreign exchnge mrket. At the end of the month it stood t EUR/HRK 7., down by.7 from the end of April (Figure ). The kun strengthened ginst most other mjor trding prtners currencies in My, resulting in n pprecition of the nominl effective exchnge rte of. compred with the end of April. In ddition to the forementioned pprecition of the exchnge rte of the kun ginst the euro, this ws primrily result of the pprecition of the kun ginst the yun renminbi nd the US dollr, reflecting the strengthening of the euro ginst these currencies on the globl foreign exchnge mrket. The wekening of the exchnge rte of the US dollr ginst the euro ws, for the most prt, ffected by the increse in the risk version of investors on finncil mrkets nd the rise of uncertinty ssocited with the US economic policy. Short-term interest rtes in the euro re money mrket remined in negtive territory in My, influenced by the ECB s expnsionry monetry policy nd bundnt bnking system liquidity. The overnight interest rte, EONIA, stood t., while the six-month EURIBOR stood t. (Figure ). The risk premiums for Europen emerging mrket economies decresed slightly from the end of. Aprt from tht of Bulgri, the risk premium for Croti sw the most substntil decline (7 bsis points), stnding t bsis points t the end of My. Despite the drop, it remined the highest mong peer countries (Figure ). Owing to the CNB s expnsionry monetry policy, surplus liquidity of the domestic bnking system ws high in My, totlling HRK.7bn. Although lower thn in the period from Jnury to April, surplus liquidity ws still twice s high s in the sme period lst yer. At the sme time, the verge weighted interest rte in interbnk trde on the overnight mrket stood t. (Figure ), wheres the interest rte on one-yer kun T-bills without currency cluse remined t. (Figure ). Interest rtes on new business volume of lons grew slightly in April 7 for lmost ll types of lons to non-finncil corportions, but continued to decline for household lons (Figures nd ). A rise in interest rtes ws recorded in most originl new corporte lons s well (Figure ). Interest rtes on household nd corporte time deposits continued to drop (Figures nd ). As result of the developments described bove, the spred between interest rtes on new lons nd deposits incresed to. percentge points in April (from percentge points in Mrch), while the gp between interest rte spreds on lons nd deposits remined lmost the sme s in the previous month, i.e. slightly below five percentge points (Figure 7). Monetry developments in April were mrked by rise in net domestic ssets (NDA) of the monetry system, which exceeded the drop in net foreign ssets (NFA), leding to moderte growth in totl liquid ssets (M). Developments in the blnce sheets of monetry institutions were strongly ffected by the drop in foreign currency government deposits with the CNB in April. Specificlly, the foreign currency inflow from foreign bond issued in Mrch ws used to settle the foreign bond libility tht mtured t the end of April, which resulted in the reduction of NFA nd n increse in NDA due to rise in net clims on the centrl government. The growth in M continued on n nnul level, lthough t rte slower thn in the preceding prt of the yer, ending April t. (exchnge rte chnges excluded, Figure ). In the structure of M, the growth ws mostly driven by n increse in money (M), which continued to grow rpidly on n nnul bsis, reching.7 t the end of April (Figure ). This ws due eqully to household nd non-finncil corportion demnd deposits. On the other hnd, the slowdown in M growth primrily originted from drop in foreign currency deposits, which intensified on n nnul bsis during the first four months of 7, reching. t the end of April (exchnge rte chnges excluded, Figure ). Credit institutions plcements to domestic sectors (except the government) rose by. in April (trnsction-bsed) owing minly to n increse in plcements to non-finncil corportions. The increse in plcements on n nnul bsis ws similr to tht recorded in the erlier prt of the yer, stnding t. t end-april (Figure ). Observed on n nnul bsis, plcements to non-finncil corportions grew t the sme rte s in the previous month, ending April t.7 (Figure ), while the growth in household plcements ccelerted to. (Figure ). The trend of surge in kun plcements to households continued, ccompnied by simultneous deleverging in foreign currency (Figure ), cusing the shre of kun plcements to households in totl plcements to the sector to rech. t the end of April (Figure 7). On the other hnd, the nominl stock of plcements t the end of April 7 shrnk by. on n nnul bsis, which my primrily be ttributed to the sle of bnks non-performing plcements. As for lending to the government, bnk plcements to the centrl government incresed by. t the end of April 7 reltive to the sme month of the previous yer (Figure ). Gross interntionl reserves of the CNB mounted to EUR.bn t the end of My, down by EUR.bn from the previous month, minly s result of drop in greed foreign repo trnsctions (Figure ). On the other hnd, net usble reserves incresed modertely in My, reching EUR.bn, up by. from the end of. Following stgntion t the end of, net externl debt of domestic sectors incresed by EUR.bn in the first qurter of 7 (Figure ). This ws mostly brought bout by bnks, the net externl position of which deteriorted by EUR.bn, significntly more thn in the sme period in, primrily s result of decline in foreign ssets. Furthermore, centrl government externl debt incresed by EUR.7bn in the first qurter; however, the increse ws only temporry s the bond which hd been issued on the interntionl mrket in Mrch ws primrily intended to refinnce the bond mturing in April. The depositing of funds generted with the CNB contributed to temporry shrp increse in interntionl reserves t the end of the first qurter, thus significntly improving the net externl position of the centrl bnk (by EUR.bn). The totl gross externl debt of the Republic of Croti incresed substntilly in the first qurter (by EUR.bn), which ws not only result of the forementioned borrowing of the centrl government, but lso of the investment of prt of centrl bnk s interntionl reserves in reverse repos (Figure ). Preliminry MoF consolidted generl government dt, on csh bsis, suggest tht the deficit widened in the first qurter of 7 reltive to the sme period lst yer, reflecting growth in expenditures fster thn tht in revenues (Tble ). It is necessry to note tht temporry finncing ws in force in the first qurter of nd tht chnges occurred in pyment

5 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 dynmics with regrd to prticulr expenditure items in 7. As regrds revenues, the first qurter sw yer-on-yer growth in the min ctegories of revenues, with socil contributions, supported by fvourble lbour mrket developments, nd VAT providing prticulrly positive contribution. Revenues from income tx shrnk due to implemented tx chnges, nd other revenues went slightly down s well, mostly s result of drop in revenues from the sle of goods nd services on the mrket. On the other hnd, the rise in budget expenditures in the first three months of 7 ws strongly ffected by the pyment of Figure Qurterly gross domestic product sesonlly djusted rel vlues stte budget subsidies, which begn much erlier this yer thn in. Growth ws seen in most mjor expenditure ctegories s well, with the exception of socil benefits, which stgnted. In contrst, the slow decrese in expenditures for interest continued s result of more fvourble finncing conditions in nd less of need for borrowing. As for government debt, the ltest vilble dt show tht the generl government debt totlled HRK.bn t the end of Februry, dropping slightly from the end of lst yer becuse of, mong other things, kun exchnge rte pprecition (Tble ). Figure Industril production = = Yer-on-yer rte of chnge of GDP left Level of GDP (sesonlly djusted vlues) right Note: Dt for the second qurter of 7 is the estimte derived using the CNB s Monthly indictor of rel economic ctivity, on the bsis of dt published until My 7. Sources: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB nd CNB clcultions. Qurterly rte of chnge of sesonlly djusted index left Trend-cycle right Note: Dt for the second qurter of 7 refers to April. Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. Figure GDP rte of chnge contribution by components Figure Industril production by min industril groupings sesonlly djusted indices percentge points = 7 Imports of goods nd services left Exports of goods nd services left Chnges in inventories left Gross domestic product right Gross fixed cpitl formtion left Government consumption left Household consumption left 7 7 Intermedite goods Cpitl goods Non-durble consumer goods Durble consumer goods Energy Note: The projection for 7 refers to the officil projection of the CNB from April 7. Source: CBS. Note: Qurterly dt re clculted s the verge of monthly dt. Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB.

6 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Totl volume of construction works Figure Business confidence indictors stndrdised nd sesonlly djusted vlues = Qurterly rte of chnge of sesonlly djusted index left Trend-cycle right Construction business confidence indictor Retil trde business confidence indictor Services business confidence indictor Industry business confidence indictor Long-run verge = CCI consumer confidence index Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. Sources: Ipsos nd CNB dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. Figure Buildings nd civil engineering works Figure EU confidence indices sesonlly djusted series = in, blnce of responses long-run verge = Civil engineering works (trend-cycle) left Buildings (trend-cycle) left Buildings (qurterly rte of chnge) right Civil engineering works (qurterly rte of chnge) right Industril confidence index left Consumer confidence index left Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) right Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. Source: Eurostt. Figure 7 Rel retil trde turnover Figure Goods exports (f.o.b.) 7 Qurterly rte of chnge of sesonlly djusted index left Trend-cycle right = Totl exports (qurterly rte of chnge) right Exports excl. ships nd oil (qurterly rte of chnge) right Totl exports (trend-cycle) left Exports excl. ships nd oil (trend-cycle) left in, sesonlly djusted Note: Dt for the second qurter of 7 refers to April. Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB.

7 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 7 Figure Goods imports (c.i.f.) Figure Employment by NCA ctivities sesonlly djusted dt, contributions to the qurterly rte of chnge.... in, sesonlly djusted percentge points in thousnd... 7 Totl imports (qurterly rte of chnge) right Imports excl. ships nd oil (qurterly rte of chnge) right Totl imports (trend-cycle) left Imports excl. ships nd oil (trend-cycle) left.. 7 Public sector (O, P, Q) Other Industry (B, C, D, E) Construction (F) Trde (G) Employment right Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. Note: Dt for the second qurter of 7 refer to April. Source: CPIA dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. Figure Imports of cpitl equipment nd rod vehicles (c.i.f.) Figure Unemployment rtes sesonlly djusted dt.... in, sesonlly djusted... 7 Imports of rod vehicles (qurterly rte of chnge) right Imports of cpitl equipment (qurterly rte of chnge) right Imports of rod vehicles (trend-cycle) left Imports of cpitl equipment (trend-cycle) left Note: Imports of cpitl equipment (SITC divisions 7 77). Source: CBS dt sesonlly djusted by the CNB. 7 Registered unemployment rte ILO unemployment rte Adjusted unemployment rte Note: Since Jnury, the clcultion of the registered unemployed rte hs been mde using the dt on employed persons from the JOPPD form. The djusted unemployment rte is the CNB estimte nd is clculted s the shre of the number of registered unemployed persons in the working ge popultion (unemployed persons nd persons insured with the CPIA). Dt for the second qurter of 7 refer to April. Sources: CBS nd CNB clcultions (sesonlly djusted by the CNB). Figure Trde in goods blnce three-member moving verges of monthly dt Figure Averge nominl gross wge by NCA ctivities sesonlly djusted dt, contributions to the qurterly rte of chnge.. percentge points Energy sources Cpitl goods Ships Rod vehicles Other Totl Note: Series re shown s three-member moving verges of monthly dt. Source: CBS.. 7 Industry (B, C, D, E) Construction (F) Trde (G) Public sector (O, P, Q) Other Nominl gross wge right Note: Dt on the verge nominl gross wge by ctivity refer to dt from the RAD- form, nd from Jnury to dt from the JOPPD form. Dt for the second qurter of 7 refer to April. Sources: CBS nd CNB clcultions (sesonlly djusted by the CNB)..

8 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure 7 Consumer price index nd core infltion nnulised month-on-month rte of chnge Figure HWWI index (excl. energy) 7 = 7 7 Consumer price index Core infltion HWWI index (USD) HWWI index (HRK) The month-on-month rte of chnge is clculted bsed on the qurterly moving verge of sesonlly djusted consumer price indices. Sources: CBS nd CNB clcultions. Sources: HWWI nd CNB clcultions. Figure Yer-on-yer infltion rtes nd components contribution to consumer price infltion percentge points 7 Energy Processed food Services Consumer price index () Unprocessed food Non-food industril goods without energy Core infltion () Core infltion does not include griculturl product prices nd dministrtive prices. Sources: CBS nd CNB clcultions. Tble Price indictors yer-on-yer nd month-on-month rtes of chnge Yer-on-yer rtes Month-onmonth rtes /7 /7 / /7 Consumer price index nd its components Totl index.... Energy.... Unprocessed food.... Processed food.... Non-food industril goods without energy.... Services.... Other price indictors Core infltion Index of industril producer prices on the domestic mrket.... Brent crude oil price (USD).... HWWI index (excl. energy, USD)....7 Note: Processed food includes lcoholic beverges nd tobcco. Sources: CBS, Bloomberg nd HWWI. Figure Crude oil prices (Brent) Figure Dily nominl exchnge rte HRK vs. EUR, USD nd CHF CNB midpoint exchnge rte USD/brrel HRK/brrel Brent (USD/brrel) left Brent (HRK/brrel) right EUR/HRK left USD/HRK right CHF/HRK right Sources: Bloomberg nd CNB clcultions.

9 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Nominl nd rel effective exchnge rtes of the kun Figure CDS spreds for -yer government bonds of selected countries index, = 7 Nominl Rel (ULC totl economy) Rel (ULC mnufcturing) Rel (PPI) Rel (CPI) 7 Note: The rel effective exchnge rte of the kun deflted by producer prices includes the Crotin index of industril producer prices on the totl mrket. The unit lbour cost is clculted s the rtio between compenstion per employee nd lbour productivity (defined s GDP per person employed), while the rel effective exchnge rte of the kun deflted by unit lbour costs is the result of the interpoltion of qurterly vlues. A fll in the index indictes n effective pprecition of the kun. bsis points 7 7 Bulgri Polnd Germny Czech R. Romni Itly Croti Sloveni Hungry Slovk R. Note: Credit defult swps (CDS) spred is n nnul premium tht CDS buyer pys for protection ginst credit risk ssocited with n issuer of n instrument. Source: S&P Cpitl IQ. Figure Contributions of individul currencies to the monthly rte of chnge of the verge index of the nominl effective kun exchnge rte (INEER) Figure CDS spreds for selected prent bnks of domestic bnks percentge points bsis points EUR USD CHF Other currencies INEER () Unicredit S.p.A. Erste Group Bnk AG Intes Snpolo S.p.A. Société Générle Riffeisen Bnk Interntionl AG Negtive vlues indicte contributions to the pprecition of the INEER. Source: S&P Cpitl IQ. Figure Interest rtes on the euro nd the verge yield spred on bonds of Europen emerging mrket countries Figure 7 Interest rtes quoted on the interbnk mrket (-month ZIBOR) monthly verges of simple dily verges of bnk quottions.. bsis points ECB benchmrk rte left EONIA left M EURIBOR left EMBI spreds for Europen emerging mrket countries right Sources: ECB, Bloomberg nd J. P. Morgn.

10 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Short-term finncing costs in kun without currency cluse Figure Interest rtes on originl new lons to nonfinncil corportions 7 7 -dy T-bills (HRK) Short-term kun corporte lons without currency cluse Short-term kun household lons without currency cluse 7 Working cpitl lons in kun Working cpitl lons in kun indexed to f/c Investment lons in kun indexed to f/c Revolving lons, overdrfts nd credit crd credit in kun Sources: MoF nd CNB. Figure Long-term finncing costs in kun with currency cluse nd in foreign currency Figure Interest rtes on originl new housing lons to households... 7 Long-term corporte lons with currency cluse /7-dy T-bills (EUR, indexed to f/c) -dy T-bills (EUR, indexed to f/c) Long-term housing lons to households with currency cluse Yield on generic -yer Germn bond + EMBI Croti Long-term household lons with currency cluse, excl. housing lons Note: EMBI, or the Emerging Mrket Bond Index, shows the spred between yields on government securities of emerging mrket economies, Croti included, nd risk-free securities issued by developed countries. Sources: MoF, Bloomberg nd CNB... 7 Housing lons in kun Totl housing lons Housing lons in f/c Figure Bnk interest rtes on lons to non-finncil corportions by volume Figure Interest rtes on originl new consumer nd other lons to households NIR on new lons, in 7 7 Interest rte spred between lons up to HRK 7.m nd lons over HRK 7.m Lons up to HRK 7.m Lons over HRK 7.m 7 Consumer lons in kun Totl consumer lons Consumer lons in f/c Other lons Note: Consumer lons include totl lons to households excl. housing nd other lons. Other lons to households (denominted lmost exclusively in kun) include credit crd lons, overdrfts, revolving lons nd receivbles on chrge crds.

11 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Interest rtes on household time deposits Figure 7 Spred between interest rtes on lons (excl. revolving lons) nd interest rtes on deposits 7 Short-term household time deposits in kun Long-term household time deposits in kun Totl household time deposits 7 Short-term household time deposits in f/c Long-term household time deposits in f/c 7 Lons in kun Deposits in kun Lons in kun b Deposits in f/c Totl new Totl blnces Non-indexed to f/c. b Indexed to f/c. Note: Spred between verge interest rtes on lons nd verge interest rtes on deposits should be differentited from net interest mrgin (the rtio of the difference between interest income nd interest expenses to totl ssets of credit institutions). Figure Interest rtes on corporte time deposits Figure Net foreign ssets, net domestic ssets nd totl liquid ssets (M) bsolute chnge in the lst months 7 7 Short-term corporte time deposits in kun Long-term corporte time deposits in kun Totl corporte time deposits Short-term corporte time deposits in f/c Long-term corporte time deposits in f/c Net foreign ssets Net domestic ssets M Figure Averge interest rtes on lons (excl. revolving lons) nd deposits Figure Net domestic ssets, structure bsolute chnge in the lst months 7 7 Lons blnces Deposits blnces Lons new Deposits new Net plcements to the government Other net ssets Plcements Net domestic ssets For time deposits, interest rtes on newly received deposits re weighted by their blnces.

12 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Plcements Figure Annul rte of chnge in household plcements trnsction-bsed 7 7 Trnsctions in totl plcements left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Kun household plcement Totl household plcements F/c household plcements Figure Plcements to corportes Figure Annul rte of chnge in corporte plcements trnsction-bsed 7 7 Trnsctions in corporte plcements left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Kun corporte plcement Totl corporte plcements F/c corporte plcements Figure Plcements to households Figure Structure of credit institution plcements Trnsctions in household plcements left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Plcements to other sectors Plcements to the centrl government Plcements to households Plcements to corportes

13 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Credit institution nd MMF plcements to the centrl government Figure Totl liquid ssets (M) Plcements to the centrl government (blnce) left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge right M (blnce) left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right Figure 7 Shre of kun plcements in totl sector plcements Figure Structure of M monetry ggregte 7 Plcements to non-finncil corportions Plcements to households Plcements to other sectors (incl. the government sector) M Kun deposits Foreign currency deposits Bonds, money mrket instruments nd MMFs shres/units Figure Money (M) Figure Kun svings nd time deposits M (blnce) left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge right Kun deposits (blnce) left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge right

14 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Foreign currency deposits Figure Spot trnsctions in the foreign exchnge mrket (net turnover) Foreign currency deposits (blnce) left Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (blnce-bsed) right Yer-on-yer rte of chnge (trnsction-bsed) right. 7 Bnk trnsctions with legl persons Bnk trnsctions with nturl persons Bnk trnsctions with foreign bnks Bnk trnsctions with the CNB Totl bnk trnsctions CNB trnsctions with government nd the EC Note: Positive vlues indicte net purchses nd negtive vlues indicte net sles. Legl persons include the government. Dt up to My 7. Figure Shre of kun sources Figure Interntionl reserves of the CNB t current rte of exchnge Shre of kun sources in totl sources of other monetry finncil institutions Shre of kun sources in totl sources of other monetry finncil institutions (excl. demnd deposits) Interntionl reserves Net usble interntionl reserves NUIR = interntionl reserves foreign libilities reserve requirements in f/c foreign currency government deposits. Figure Bnk liquidity nd overnight interbnk interest rte Tble Blnce of pyments preliminry dt, in million EUR Indices..... / / Current ccount,.,...7 Cpitl ccount Finncil ccount (excl. reserves),.7, Liquidity surplus (incl. overnight deposits with the CNB) right Overnight interbnk interest rte left Note: Liquidity surplus is the difference between the blnce in bnk settlement ccounts with the CNB nd the mount tht bnks re required to hold in their ccounts fter the clcultion of reserve requirements. Interntionl reserves Net errors nd omissions In line with the th edition of the Blnce of Pyments nd Interntionl Investment Position Mnul (BPM).

15 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure 7 Current nd cpitl ccount flows Figure Net externl debt trnsctions s of GDP Sum of the lst four qurters. Secondry income left Services left Primry income left Goods left Cpitl trnsctions left Current nd cpitl ccount Current nd cpitl ccount right Current nd cpitl ccount excl. the effect of conversion right 7 Generl government Crotin Ntionl Bnk Other MFIs Other sectors Direct investment Totl Note: Trnsctions refer to the chnge in debt excl. cross-currency chnges nd other djustments. Net externl debt is clculted s gross externl debt stock net of foreign debt clims. Figure Finncil ccount flows by type of investment Figure Gross externl debt trnsctions s of GDP Direct investment left Other investment left Finncil derivtives left Portfolio investment left Chnge in interntionl reserves left Totl net flows right Sum of the lst four qurters. Note: A positive vlue indictes net outflow of equity brod (including on the bsis of the growth in interntionl reserves). 7 Generl government Crotin Ntionl Bnk Other MFIs Other sectors Direct investment Totl Note: Trnsctions refer to the chnge in debt excl. cross-currency chnges nd other djustments. Figure Finncil ccount flows by cpitl structure Figure Gross externl debt end of period s of GDP Equity libilities, net left Chnge in interntionl reserves left Debt libilities, net excl. reserves left Totl net cpitl flows excl. reserves left Totl net cpitl flows b right Totl net cpitl flows excl. reserves,b right The chnge in gross interntionl reserves is reported net of the libilities of the CNB. b Sum of the lst four qurters. Note: A positive vlue indictes net outflow of equity brod. Net flows represent the difference between the chnge in ssets nd the chnge in libilities. Generl government Crotin Ntionl Bnk Other MFIs Other sectors Direct investment

16 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 Figure Generl government debt shre in generl government debt, in 7.. /7 Tble Consolidted generl government blnce ESA, in million HRK Jn. Dec. Jn. Dec. Totl revenue,, Direct txes,,7 Indirect txes,, Socil contributions,77,7 Other,, Totl expenditure,7, Socil benefits,, Subsidies,, Interest,, Compenstion of employees,, Intermedite consumption,7 7,7 Investment,7, Other,, Net lending (+)/borrowing ( ),,77 Sources: Eurostt nd CBS Domestic generl government debt left Externl generl government debt left Generl government debt right SGP reference vlue () Note: Nominl GDP for the lst four vilble qurters ws used for the clcultion of the reltive indictor. s of GDP Tble Consolidted centrl government net borrowing GFS, in million HRK Tble Generl government debt in million HRK Jn. Mr. Jn. Feb. Jn. Mr. 7 Revenue,,7 Disposl of non-finncil ssets Expenditure,, Acquisition of non-finncil ssets,, Net borrowing ( + ),, Sources: MoF nd CNB clcultions. Jn. Feb. 7 Chnge in totl debt stock Chnge in domestic debt stock,,7 Securities other thn shres, short-term, Securities other thn shres, long-term 7,7 Lons Chnge in externl debt stock,, Securities other thn shres, short-term Securities other thn shres, long-term,,7 Lons, Memo item: Chnge in totl gurntees issued

17 CNB INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS JUNE 7 7 Abbrevitions nd symbols Abbrevitions BIS Bnk for Interntionl Settlements bn billion b.p. bsis points BOP blnce of pyments c.i.f. cost, insurnce nd freight CBRD Crotin Bnk for Reconstruction nd Development CBS Centrl Bureu of Sttistics CCI consumer confidence index CDCC Centrl Depository nd Clering Compny Inc. CDS credit defult swp CEE Centrl nd Estern Europen CEFTA Centrl Europen Free Trde Agreement CEI consumer expecttions index CES Crotin Employment Service CM Crotin Motorwys CIHI Crotin Institute for Helth Insurnce CLVPS Crotin Lrge Vlue Pyment System CNB Crotin Ntionl Bnk CPF Crotin Privtistion Fund CPI consumer price index CPIA Crotin Pension Insurnce Administrtion CR Crotin Rods CSI consumer sentiment index DAB Stte Agency for Deposit Insurnce nd Bnk Resolution dep. deposit DVP delivery versus pyment EC Europen Commission ECB Europen Centrl Bnk EFTA Europen Free Trde Assocition EMU Economic nd Monetry Union ESI economic sentiment index EU Europen Union excl. excluding f/c foreign currency FDI foreign direct investment Fed Federl Reserve System FINA Finncil Agency FISIM finncil intermedition services indirectly mesured f.o.b. free on bord GDP gross domestic product GVA gross vlue dded HANFA Crotin Finncil Services Supervisory Agency HICP hrmonised index of consumer prices ILO Interntionl Lbour Orgniztion IMF Interntionl Monetry Fund incl. including IPO initil public offering m million MIGs min industril groupings MM monthly mturity MoF Ministry of Finnce NCA Ntionl Clssifiction of Activities NCB ntionl centrl bnk NCS Ntionl Clering System n.e.c. OECD OG R o/w PPI RTGS Q RR SDR SITC SGP VAT WTO ZMM ZSE not elsewhere clssified Orgnistion for Economic Co-Opertion nd Development Officil Gzette Republic of which producer price index Rel-Time Gross Settlement qurterly reserve requirement specil drwing rights Stndrd Interntionl Trde Clssifiction Stbility nd Growth Pct vlue dded tx World Trde Orgniztion Zgreb Money Mrket Zgreb Stock Exchnge Three-letter currency codes ATS CHF CNY DEM EUR FRF GBP HRK ITL JPY USD Austrin schilling Swiss frnc Yun Renminbi Germn mrk euro French frnc pound sterling Crotin kun Itlin lir Jpnese yen US dollr Two-letter country codes BG Bulgri CZ Czech R. EE Estoni HR Croti HU Hungry LV Ltvi LT Lithuni PL Polnd RO Romni SK Slovk R. SI Sloveni Symbols no entry... dt not vilble vlue is less thn. of the unit of mesure being used verge, b, c,... indictes note beneth the tble nd figure * corrected dt ( ) incomplete or insufficiently verified dt