Technical Report Global Leader Dry Bulk Derivatives

Transcription

1 Soybens Mrch 17 - Weekly Soybens Mrch 17 - Dily Weekly Close US$ 1,054 ½ RSI 59 MACD Bullish The hisgrm is widening S1 US$ 1,016 ½ S2 US$ 993 R1 US$ 1,071 R2 US$ 1,096 Dily Close US$ 1,030 RSI 60 MACD Bullish, the hisgrm is nrrowing S1 US$ 1,040 S2 US$ 1,016 R1 US$ 1,074 R2 US$ 1,096 Source Bloomberg Verdict The rounding botm long the 50 period moving verge hs resulted in strong upwrd moves in recent weeks, the Mrch 2017 contrct trding up high US$ 1,074. Although we hve pulled bck recent highs we re still seeing bullish technicl s we remin bove moving verges. The schstic is once gin showing bullish cross signlling tht we could potentilly try the highs gin in the short term. The schstic is however filing mke fresh highs in conjunction price, nd hs berish implictions going forwrd. Although not sell signl it does suggest tht the upside move could soon enter in corrective phse. A close below US$ 1,015 would suggest tht the longer term verges could be tested (US$ 975) however ny rejection level would present further buying opportunities going forwrd. Verdict US$ 1,040 is short term support level. If broken we could see price ction pulling bck the US$ 1,027 ¼, s ws the previous high on the 10/11/16. Momentum is strting look oversold on the dily chrt the %D line (red line) now t 37. This would suggest tht if the ner term support is broken the secondry support should hold t A rejection the US$ 1,040 level would be considered s short term bullish, however the berish divergence on the weekly chrt, nd upwrd price swing is likely produce better selling opportunities thn buying ones. Techniclly oversold on the dily chrt nd ner mrket support, however the longer term technicl picture is strting weken so hevy longs should look tighten. The informtion provided in communiction is generl in nture only nd does not constitute dvice in reltion investment nor constitute ny recommendtion on our prt. The informtion hs been prepred out tking in ccount your investment objectives, finncil sitution or knowledge nd experience. Freight Invesr Services Limited is uthorised nd regulted by the Finncil Conduct Authority (FRN ).

2 Corn Mrch 17 - Weekly Corn Mrch 17 - Dily Weekly Close US$ 358 ¼ RSI 40 MACD Bullish, the hisgrm is flt S1 US$ 335 S2 US$ 325 R1 US$ 366 R2 US$ 379 Verdict An interesting technicl picture is developing in the Weekly corn. Since the end September we hve seen period ccumultion s buyers built up long positions s the mrket strted bse. If September represented the buyers then Ocber ws definitely month selling, specificlly in the lst two weeks where we hve seen shrp drop in open interest, At point existing longs pper be exiting the mrket ggregte open interest dropping nd t levels not seen since Nov The schstic t 36 does techniclly hve further the downside, however s selling pressure dries s existing longs close their positions we could see short term mrket bounce. Technicl support t US$ 335 nd US$ 325, which if broken could trigger fresh wve selling. However bsed f the open interest cler-out, nd the positioning the schstic we would expect ny testing support hold t Dily Close US$ 342 ½ RSI 39 MACD Berish the hisgrm is widening S1 US$ 335 S2 US$ 325 R1 US$ 349 ¼ R2 US$ 353 Source Bloomberg Verdict The dily technicl looks wek t point pricing below ll moving verges. The most recent price move down is on dy 5 nd hs been consistent picture in recent moves. 5 dy moves down hve been followed by n upwrd swing. It is worth noting tht the dily schstic is now oversold. Short term swing trders should now look tighten s the probbility nother upwrd swing is quiet high. Technicl support on the dily chrt cn be found t US$ 335, however bsed recent price moves these should not be tested on move. Techniclly bullish (short term) on close bove US$ 349 ½ - it is importnt Remember tht we remin below the longer term verges round US$ 355, mening will be nturl re resistnce. A close bove US$ 353 would suggest tht buyers re once gin entering the mrket. crries spce it substntil emphsize To plce s broker commission nd clering costs will be pplied nd these cn vry depending on the type product trded s well s the venue used for execution. These re not suitble for ll invesrs. For ny further informtion or discuss the use these plese spek

3 Chicgo Whet Mrch 17 - Weekly Chicgo Whet Mrch 17 - Dily Weekly Close US$ 419 ½ RSI 29 MACD neutrl S1 US$ 387 ½ S2 US$ 365 ¼ R1 US$ 421 R2 US$ 445 ½ Verdict Hving spent 13 weeks in consolidtion we hve finlly broken out. Techniclly the long term trend is berish, however brekout would pper be mrket tht hs been ccumulting tht hs now strted exit. Open interest tht hd been incresing hs now dropped significntly. This current move down is driven by mrket longs exiting, nd not tht fresh shorts entering the mrket. The schstic is lso filing mke fresh lows nd showing bullish divergence. This would suggest tht downwrd thrust could in fct be short lived s once the longs hve exited it will lck downwrd pressure. Existing shorts should look tighten t Short term buy indicrs will be triggered on close bove US$ 420. Dily Close US$ 407 ¼ RSI 45 MACD Neutrl S1 US$ 400 S2 US$ 392 ½ R1 US$ 408 R2 US$ 413 Verdict The dily chrt looks techniclly oversold bsed f the schstic, however upwrd pricing needs follow confirm potentil upwrd swing. If we sy like the cndle pttern would be known s n inside dy (berish hrmi is the cndlestick nme) nd would hve bullish connottions going forwrd. However would need be confirmed positive cndle first. Short term buy signls will be triggered on close bove US$ 408 technicl resistnce t US$ 420. Techniclly oversold, Mrch whet needs confirmtion before longs look enter. The technicl picture is pointing downside exhustion in the medium term. However until the dily chrt shows buy signls the trend should still be considered s berish. crries spce it substntil emphsize To plce s broker commission nd clering costs will be pplied nd these cn vry depending on the type product trded s well s the venue used for execution. These re not suitble for ll invesrs. For ny further informtion or discuss the use these plese spek

4 US Gulf Nol Ure Grnulr Spot Price Weekly UAE Q1 Futures Dily Weekly Close US$ 220 RSI 46 MACD Bullish cross S1 US$ 217 S2 US$ 209 R1 US$ 240 R2 US$ 245 Verdict US$ 245 ws the level brek on the monthly chrt nd hs filed. Pricing on the index is now t US$ 220 hving tken out the US$ 236 support level in spectculr fshion. The index is now t levels, s the 8 EMA, 50 simple MA nd the 34 EMA re now ll in US$8 ech other. The current support zone is between US$ 217 US$ 209, nd if broken would suggest tht the current bull move hs run its course. Techniclly the trend is still bullish s bove its verges. The schstic lthough strting weken is still in trending terriry. A rejection the support zone would suggest tht we could once gin look test the recent highs t US$ 240. A re for the index; It needs hold bove its support zone if it is remin bullish s the technicl picture is wekening. Weekly Close US$ RSI 61 MACD berish, the hisgrm is widening S1 US$ 158 S2 US$ 153 R1 US$ R2 US$ Verdict The UAE hve now entered corrective phse hving seen the rlly 26% since September. The recent upwrd swing ended t US$ 162, nd is s it mens he re now in sitution where the mrket hs filed mke new high since the 26/9/16. If the recent low t US$ 158 is broken it will trigger new wve selling, n initil trget being between US$ 153 nd US$ As is the 34 EMA nd 100% move the initil downswing. The reverse is the recent high US$ creting the logicl resistnce A close bove level will signl technicl buyers enter the mrket nd hve shorts looking for cover. US$ 158 US$ 162 is primed for clssic brekout. Mrket neutrls should wit for close outside rnge before entering. crries spce it substntil emphsize To plce s broker commission nd clering costs will be pplied nd these cn vry depending on the type product trded s well s the venue used for execution. These re not suitble for ll invesrs. For ny further informtion or discuss the use these plese spek

5 Technicl Anlysis Glossry Pivot Point A point where the mrket mkes new high or low, before reversing in direction. Trend Line A directionl line connecting pivot points. Primry Trend The min trend line over n extended period time. Secondry Trend Distinct but in the primry trend. Indictes recent trend. Support A previous mrket low where mrket prticipnts hve been prepred enter long positions. Resistnce A previous mrket high where mrket prticipnts hve been prepred enter short positions. Rnge An re between the support nd resistnce. Reltive Strength Index (RSI) A technicl momentum indicr tht compres the mgnitude recent gins recent losses in n ttempt determine overbought nd oversold conditions in n sset. The RSI rnges Typiclly speking, n sset is deemed be overbought once the RSI pproches the 70 level, nd likewise, s the RSI pproches 30, it is deemed be oversold. Fiboncci Retrcement Refers res support or resistnce. A Fiboncci retrcement shows the potentil retrcement finncil sset reltive the originl move in price. A trend line is drwn between two points nd then the verticl distnce is divided by Fiboncci rtios; 23.60%, 38.25%, 50.00%, 61.80% nd %. This ol cn lso be used s projection method. Moving Averge Convergence Divergence (MACD) A trend-following momentum indicr tht shows the reltionship between two moving verges prices. The MACD is clculted by subtrcting the 26-dy exponentil moving verge (EMA) the 12-dy EMA. A nine-dy EMA the MACD, clled the "signl line", is then plotted on p the MACD, functioning s trigger for buy nd sell signls on the crossover the two lines. The hisgrm highlights the nrrowing nd widening the two verges cting s n indicr for slowing or incresing momentum in the mrket. I.E flttening or decresing hisgrm in n upwrd mrket would suggest tht the upwrd move could soon stll. crries spce it substntil emphsize To plce s broker commission nd clering costs will be pplied nd these cn vry depending on the type product trded s well s the venue used for execution. These re not suitble for ll invesrs. For ny further informtion or discuss the use these plese spek

6 Awrd winning broker In 2015 FIS ws nmed s the best performing inter-deling broker in Iron Ore swps by Singpore-bsed SGX AsiCler for the third consecutive yer. For More informtion on report plese contct: Edwrd Hutn Tel: +44(0) E-mil Edwrdh@freightinvesr.com crries spce it substntil emphsize To plce s broker commission nd clering costs will be pplied nd these cn vry depending on the type product trded s well s the venue used for execution. These re not suitble for ll invesrs. For ny further informtion or discuss the use these plese spek