Pravda Markets Report Technicals Monthly

Transcription

1 Pravda Analytics Pravda Markets Report Technicals Monthly May 2017 Edition

2 Market Index Overview S&P500 (SPX) as of close Friday 4/28/17 Index advanced into March highs after breaking a consolidation pattern.

3 A Closer Technical Look Bonds (/ZB) as of close Friday 3/3/17 Bonds declined back below the resistance level

4 A Closer Technical Look Oil Oil consolidates in a wedge with resistance at $54.5. Support is at the ascending trend line around $50.

5 A Closer Technical Look - Gold Gold broke through the 200 day moving average and retraced down to key support levels near $1,265.

6 Sentiment CNN Greed and Fear Index- NEUTRAL The Index is moving into the neutral area as US markets continue into new highs. GreedyandGreedyAreOthersWhenFearfulBe When Others Are Fearful Warren Buffett What is this? CNN's Fear & Greed Index tracks seven indicators of investor sentiment. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When investors get greedy, they can bid up stock prices way too far.

7 Sentiment AAII Investor Sentiment Survey- NEUTRAL Investors moved into Bullish opinions. Current levels are neutral when compared to historical averages. What is this? The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely followed measure of the mood of individual investors. The weekly survey results are published in financial publications including Barron's and Bloomberg and are widely followed by market strategists, investment newsletter writers and other financial professionals. Last Month:

8 Hook of death 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity. Inverted yield curve often precedes a major market decline. So far so good.

9 Inverse Put Call Ratio A unique oscillating indicator based on options activity coupled with a Bollinger Band to view overextended signals. Options activity is neutral with about an equal amount of Puts and Calls volume. While the indicator is at 1 (indicating neutrality in the Put/Call ratio), this reading is in the lower edge of the Bollinger Band indicating a greater than average number of Puts.

10 Stock Averages Number of Stocks Above 20-Day Moving Average The market is in a bullish state with around 65% of stocks above their 20 day moving average.

11 Sentiment ISE Sentiment Index - NEUTRAL The Index has recently retraced back to its average for a neutral sentiment. O 10 day moving average O 50 day moving average What is this? ISEE is an indicator of bullish/bearish investor sentiment that is computed using a unique calculation methodology and proprietary ISE option trade data. Unlike traditional put/call ratios, ISEE is based on opening long customer transactions only. Trades by market makers and firms are excluded as these tend to skew sentiment value. As a result, ISEE provides a more accurate reflection of true investor sentiment.

12 Market Direction Confirmation via Transports Sector Observation as per Dow Theory Transports and the Dow are holding strong above both key moving averages indicating a Bullish environment. Dow Jones Index Transports Index Dow theory Key premise of the theory states that both the broad equity market index as well as the transports index need to align in market direction to confirm a bullish or bearish trend. (additional rules apply) The Approach A confirmed bullish market is when: Both indexes are exhibiting higher price peaks and valleys on long term charts Both indexes are above their respective 200 day moving average (orange) Additional level of confirmation: index above 50 day moving average (blue) Current Analysis Market Direction: Cautiously Bullish Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is above short and long term moving averages Dow Jones Transports Average (IYT) is in line with both moving averages

13 Social Media Sentiment The sentiment chart shows the percentage breakdown in bullish and bearish sentiment shared by StockTwits users over time. It is calculated on a rolling, 7 day basis. The good people of the StockTwits are bullish Stocks, Bonds, and Gold. S&P 500 BONDS GOLD Chart source: StockTwits

14 Currencies Key support/resistance and trend lines for currencies

15 Rate Watch Fed Funds 1.00: market projects a >90% chance that there will NOT be a rate hike in May Prime 4.00: a half a percent move up from a year ago FOMC s Rate Projection from the Dot Plot: currently projecting ~1.50 % and ~2.00% Chart source: cmegroup

16 Sector Analysis: year to date performance Outperformers: Technology and Discretionary Underperformers: Energy and Financials

17 Economic Calendar Nonfarm payroll growth, at a consensus 185,000 in April, is expected to improve from March's disappointing gain of 98,000. Unemployment rate, which in March came in at an expansion low of 4.5 percent, is expected to retrace 1 tenth of the improvement to a consensus 4.6 percent.

18 Headlines of the week Notable covers and headlines from world s most read publications As Princeton economist Paul Krugman wryly noted, "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of Business Week."

19 Personal Finance - The Richest Man in Babylon The Richest Man in Babylon is a book by George S. Clason which dispenses financial advice through a collection of parables. Through their experiences in business and managing personal finance, the characters in the parables learn simple lessons in financial wisdom. Meet the Goddess of Good Luck Five Laws of Gold (Money) Goddess of Good Luck smiles upon those who work hard, save their money, and invest well. She doesn't really patronize professional gamblers, who always seem to end up poor Pay Yourself first Save 10% of earnings Invest Business Real estate Stocks Start thy purse to fattening Learn Mentors, Books Seminars, Experience Increase thy ability to earn Control thy expenditures Master Business, Investment Knowledge, Attitude, Skills Insure a future income Seven Cures for a Lean Purse Make thy gold multiply Avoid Scams Trickeries Get rich schemes Make of thy dwelling a profitable investment Guard thy treasures from loss

20 Investing & Trading Blueprint IBD's 10 Secrets to Success great blueprint to improve your trading, investing, as well as every day activities and personal goals:

21 Pravda Analytics