ARM Research. Economic Update -- October Economic Report Monthly update. Economic Research
|
|
- Lynette Fletcher
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Economic Research Economic Report Monthly update November 2012 Economic Update -- October 2012 Economic Snapshot Inflation Data/Indices September2012 MoM YoY Prev YoY Food 1.1% 10.2% 9.9% Core* 0.4% 13.1% 14.7% Imported food 1.1% 16.7% 17.0% Energy 2.5% 18.6% 20.5% Currency Markets Rate Daily chg YTD USDNGN % -3.23% EURNGN % -2.99% GBPNGN % 0.59% JPYNGN % -6.79% Monetary Aggregates Latest (N bn) MoM YTD M2 14, % 0.1% CPS 14, % 1.7% NCG -1, % 118.7% NFA 8, % 11.3% NDC 13, % -4.4% External Position Q Latest QoQ* YoY Trade Balance (N bn) 3, % 29.1% External Reserves ($ bn) % 30.6% Foreign Debt ($ bn) % 41.4% Growth Data Q Latest (N bn) % of total YoY Real GDP 199, % 6.28% Agriculture 81, % 3.9% Oil 27, % -0.73% Telecoms 14, % 29.77% Wholesale and trade 34, % 8.61% Analyst(s) Wale Okunrinboye adewale.okunrinboye@arm.com.ng Food inflation comes under flood pressures The National Bureau of Statistics reports that YoY headline inflation continued its downward trend shedding 40bps in September to 11.3% despite a 34bps MoM rise to 1.01%. Food inflation rose 30bps from August levels to 10.2% YoY and 50bps MoM to 1.1% while core inflation rose 0.41% MoM and eased to 13.1% from 14.7% YoY. The NBS attributes the rise in food prices to increase in prices of tuber crops like potatoes and yams whose main harvest begins in mid-september and were therefore largely affected by recent floods as well as the lagged effect of a surge in the bread prices following the 15% increment in wheat import tariffs in July We had expected a more pronounced acceleration in food prices which put our expectations for single digit inflation in Q at risk. However, whilst an assessment of the extent of damage from the flooding is still ongoing, reports from the Agriculture Ministry has sought to allay fears about an impending food crisis based on claims that the main harvest for most food crops were already concluded and in storage prior to the floods. Also, as we noted in earlier reports, improved storage reported by the National Food Reserve Agency, may have helped sustain tame food inflation in We still expect food inflation to surpass H trend in coming months based on the floods, and have revised our FY estimates to ~12% even as we temper our expectations for single digit inflation in However, we believe a better assessment may only be available from Q CPI readings.
2 Figure 1: Headline and Food Inflation Food MoM Headline YoY Food YoY 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Source: NBS, Portfolio inflows continue to provide support for Naira gains The naira continues to firm against the USD at the interbank, as having gained 3% Q3 2012, it entered into N156/$1 territory briefly, however it closed at N157.06/$1 gaining 0.28% over October. The WDAS rate continues to hold firm at the N155.7/$1 range it gained 0.02%. Naira gains at the interbank have been largely on account of strong portfolio flows in a continuation of the trend witnessed in Q and have seen official dollar demand at the WDAS in October plummet by 28% to $1.1 billion from their September 2012 total. The period also recorded the lowest sales at the WDAS($43.5million) a~3year low stretching back to November 2009 which drove 3% MoM rise in the foreign reserves to $42.6billion in October its highest level in almost three years.
3 Figure 2: Foreign reserve accretion and Import cover Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: CBN, External Reserves Accretion (US$' Million) Number of Months of Imports Equivalent 2 0 With no change in MPC policy indicated, we believe outlook for the Naira is hinged on developments on the supply side. In particular, we believee further moderation in interbank inflows in Q may push demand back into the official where we expect increased pressures from food imports to weigh in the aftermath of recent floods. This may be exacerbated by possible downturn in global risk sentiment in Q4 12 anchored on renewed focus on US fiscal problems, Eurozone event risk and persistentt EM growth deceleration which would almost certainly lead to a reversal of portfolio inflows and new demand pressure on the WDAS. In this regard we maintain our view that recent strength in the NGN/ /USD is associated with heightened risk of reversals and expect near to medium term weakness whose extent will largely be determined by global events.
4 Figure 3: WDAS Sales Total Monthly Sales (US $) Average Auction Sales (US $) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: CBN, Money Supply and Interest Rates Data available from the CBN shows that in September, Credit to the private sector grew by 0.3% MoM to N14.9billion which amounts to a deceleration in YoY growth by 240bps to 34.4%. However, net credit to the government continues to trend lower on account of improved cash management by the government via the Treasury Single Account, decelerating 8.2% MoM on the heels of a 1.4% decline in August The decision by the CBN at its last MPC meeting to leave base rates unchanged saw deposit and lending rates in September 2012 mirror their August rates with deposit-lending spreads holding steady at 15%-23% with only a 1pps decline in the upper bound over September. Money market yields rose again on the average in October following dramatic declines over Q3, probably reflecting a 24% increase in net OMO issuance relative to September.
5 Table 1: Average Yields 91-day 182-day 365-day October 13.67% 13.20% 12.81% September 13.17% 13.31% 12.35% August 14.09% 14.92% 14.22% Source: FMDA, ARM, Research The yields on Nigerian bonds have come off the rally that saw them shed 400bps on the back of the mid-august announcement of Nigeria s inclusion in the JP Morgan EM Bond index. Yields on the 2017 and 2019 shed 0.4% and 0.3% to close at 13.31% and 13.22% respectively while the 2022 climbed 2% to close at 13.1%. On the other hand, yields on Nigeria s Eurobond shed 30bps over the October to close at ~4.46%. The Federal Government has announced plans to reduce outstanding domestic debt considerably and finance some of its spending over via a series of multilateral loans (totaling $7.9 billion) and a $1billion Eurobond next year. While this should have a favourable impact on yield dynamics, the government is set to exceed its 2012 borrowing targets by as much as 35% which will impinge on its credibility in the markets even as recent yield declines and high base rates continue to cap potential gains. While the currency pressures moderated, we believe the MPC is not inclined to make a significant cut to base rate at its final meeting in November, having cited an uncertain external environment in their last, and therefore see no major reversals to the status quo. However, if Q4 inflation trend remains downbeat in the face of recent flood we see a potential dramatic drop in inflation driving pressure for a cut in base rates in Q which could significantly change outlook for yields.
6 Trade and External Position It is reported that Nigeria lost about ~20% of its oil production capacity to shut-ins triggered by floodwaters in October, which saw oil production levels plummet to between mbd from a reported provisional average production of 2.6mbd in Q Nevertheless, with post-flooding production at levels reported, this claim provides support to earlier reports of an uptick in oil production to ~2.7mbd coming from off-shore fields (onshore fields reportedly lost ~500K bpd to flooding 1 ) and gradual recovery in onshore production can be expected to provide some support for Q4 oil exports, which took a hit in October on the back of these losses. Nevertheless the development of new oil fields in the US has coincided with a decline in Nigeria s exports to the US down by 37% and 32% to 74million barrels in H1:2012 from H1:2011 and H2:2011 respectively. Although, this has been replaced by increasing Asian demand, particularly from India, price discounts to Asian buyers which led to Bonny Light and Forcados trading at an almost unprecedented discount to Brent crude in October have constrained expected revenues as have recent outages in domestic production and continued crude oil theft. In addition, spotty reliability of Nigerian crude supplies, exacerbated by force-majeures declared by oil majors recently, continue to help drive a contraction in spreads between Nigeria s benchmark crude prices and Brent. 1 From Bloomberg reports citing DPR Spokesman.
7 Figure 4: Bonny Light and Brent Crude prices differential Brent($) Bonny($) Source: Bloomberg, However, we note recent encouraging economic data from the US and China on annualized economic growth and PMI should provide support for oil demand outlook which should moderate downside risk to trade balances from oil prices in the near term. For non-oil trade, Q2 trade GDP indicates that the decline in real incomes has slackened aggregate demand, which alongside inflation data suggest increased substitution towards domestic staples and declining imports. On the whole, outlook is mixed. Conflict in the Middle East and monetary stimulus in developed economies should continue to support global oil prices while new tariffs on certain import items including cement, flour, wheat and rice as well as weaker domestic demand will likely continue to reduce imports and provide support for the current account for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, possible significant drops to crude oil prices and/or an unexpected breakthrough in conflicts between an increasingly unstable Iranian regime and the West will simultaneously hit volume sales and prices, putting trade balance
8 in a precarious position. A crisis that leads to a sharp reversal in portfolio flows with deteriorating global outlook has also become a more potent threat to Nigeria s current account/reserves in the light of substantial recent inflows. In the near term, we also expect modest increase in food imports in response to domestic flooding. Key triggers in global outlook should become clearer post the November leadership change in China, and upcoming US elections which could change geopolitical balances, particularly in the Middle East. However, as with currency outlook and yield outlook, we believe that balances are dominated by risk considerations. GDP The primary change to our domestic growth outlook is driven by the potential impact of recent floods which has reduced our (and consensus) estimates for food output in With Agricultural production still the dominant contributor to output with a ~40% share and, with H1 sector growth already 180bps lower than the preceding half-year at 4.0%, we expect the agricultural sector to weigh on FY 12 headline growth. In addition, oil output has reportedly fallen sharply in Q due to flood outages leading us to temper our earlier optimism for growth in H and cut our 2012 growth forecast range to 6.0%-6.5%. However as we highlighted earlier, we believe these numbers will be overshadowed by the planned rebasing of Nigeria s GDP in Q4 2012, suggesting that growth outlook should play favourably on investment sentiment over the near term. As such we do not believe growth concerns will feature heavily with investors in the near term. Longer term, we expect GDP growth to resume its upward trajectory, driven by lower base in both oil and Agricultural output in 2012 and, hopefully, the materialization of a number of impending positive policy developments in credit, agriculture, power, infrastructure and energy to name a few.
9 Copyright 2012 Asset & Resource Management Company Limited ( ARM ). All rights reserved. Unauthorised use, reproduction, distribution or disclosure of this document is strictly prohibited. This material has been issued by Asset & Resource Management Company Limited ( ARM ), a Company regulated by the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission. The analyst(s) primarily responsible for preparing this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer covered; all of the views expressed accurately reflect his/her personal views about the subject securities and issuers and no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in the report. This research report is based on information from sources that ARM and its analysts believe to be reliable. Neither ARM nor any of its research analysts, nor any member of the ARM Group, gives any representation or warranty, express or implied, or undertaking of any kind or assumes responsibility or liability of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information set out in this report or any third party s use (or the results of such use) of such information. This report is provided solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as providing advice, recommendations, or endorsements of any kind whatsoever. The investments and strategies discussed here may not be suitable for all investors; counsel of investment advisor should be obtained with regard to such investments and or strategies. This research report is not a replacement for advice from an accountant, lawyer, personal finance advisor or other category of investment advisor. The investments discussed in this report may oscillate in price or value. Opinions and information provided are made as of the date of the report issue and are subject to change without notice. This research report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Reference herein to any specific security or financial instrument does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement or recommendation by ARM, its directors, officers, employees or designated agents. Members of ARM may act as broker, advisor or lender, or make a market in any investments or issuers referenced in this report. Further information on any of the securities discussed herein may be obtained upon request to ARM. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Nigerian Inflation: Base effect to bow out as food pressures dictate CPI tone
Economic Report research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 16 June 2017 Economic Report Inflation Nigerian Inflation: Base effect to bow out as food pressures dictate CPI tone Economic Snapshot May
More informationARM Research. Economic Update July Economic Report Monthly Update. 9 August FMDQ ignites further FX liquidity flame.
ARM Research research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 9 August 2017 Economic Report Monthly Update Economic Update July 2017 Economic Snapshot June 2017 Inflation Data/Indices MoM YoY Prev YoY Headline
More informationEarnings get stamina from pension stake disposal
Equity Research research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 13 February 2017 Access Bank Plc. Stock Update Earnings get stamina from pension stake disposal Access disposes its stake in SIPML Late on
More informationEquity Research
Equity Research research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 7 November 2016 Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc Earnings Report 6 months ended 30 th September, 2016 Price hikes offset input cost pressures (NEUTRAL:
More informationEquity Research
Equity Research research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 29 April 2016 Access Bank Plc. Earnings Report 3 months ended 31 st March, 2016 Benign funding costs and provisioning drive strong Q1 (STRONG
More informationKey Developments in Domestic Economic and Policy Environment
ARM Research research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 20 July 2017 Nigeria Strategy Report H2 2017 Excerpts Key Developments in Domestic Economic and Policy Environment Economic Snapshot June 2017
More informationInflation Outlook and Monetary Easing
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing Although annual consumer price inflation rose for a second consecutive month in July, the underlying trend
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationChina GDP grows 6.8% in Q4 2016
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com The 2017 Outlook The mainland China economy expanded by an annual rate of 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016, up from 6.7% in the third quarter,
More informationLafarge Africa Plc. (WAPCO.NL)
30 August 2018 Equity Research research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 Rating NEUTRAL Price N25.50 FVE N27.94 52-week range N24.65 N57.35 Market Cap. (N'bn) 221.172 1-month Avg. Vol 58,204 Curr.
More informationNigeria: Economic Outlook Top 10 themes for 2018
PwC Nigeria Economics Top 10 themes for 2018 February 2018 Disclaimer This document has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You
More informationRBI s Sixth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review ( ) Maintains status quo...neutral Stance
7h February 2018 RBI s Sixth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review (2017-18) Maintains status quo...neutral Stance Repo Rate unchanged at Reverse Repo Rate stands at 5.75% Marginal Standing Facility and Bank
More informationFIXED INCOME UPDATE AUGUST 17
1 FIXED INCOME UPDATE AUGUST 17 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
More informationNigerian Inflation: Approaching an Inflection point
Nigeria Strategy Report H2 2018 Domestic Economy and Policy Environment Nigerian Inflation: Approaching an Inflection point Executive Summary In our H1 18 strategy report, we projected a drop-in headline
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationT R U S T F U N D P E N S I O N S P L C
MARKET AND ECONOMIC COMMENTARY NOVEMBER 31, 2014 T R U S T F U N D P E N S I O N S P L C Investment Research MACROS EQUITIES BONDS MONEY MARKET ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS Outline Key Macro Variables Growth
More informationGDP: Juggling optimism on a tightrope
ARM Research research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 22 January 2018 Nigeria Strategy Report H1 2018 Excerpts Domestic Economy and Markets GDP: Juggling optimism on a tightrope We expect a juggling
More informationMexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018
Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY December 2018
4% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND December 1 2 Consumer prices (1) At the end of 1, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia s target 2 Inflation indicators, % YoY
More informationFixed Income Monthly Report
Fixed Income Monthly Report Prepared by Lead Asset Management Limited 01/10/2018 CONTENTS GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS Global Bond Yields Oil Prices MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET REVIEW June 2008 DOMESTIC UPDATES
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationSaudi Chartbook. Summary. December 2014
December 1 Saudi Chartbook Summary Real Economy: Economic data for October showed signs of cooling. The non-oil PMI fell following a 39-month peak in the previous month. Data on consumer spending showed
More informationEconomic and market snapshot for January 2016
From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United
More informationMonetary Policy Report I / 2018
Central Bank of Egypt Monetary Policy Report I / 218 Monetary Policy Report I / 218 Central Bank of Egypt Disclaimer The cut-off date for the data included in this report is May 17, 218. Some of the data
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by
More informationIndian Economy. GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Manufacturing GVAbp
Indian Economy Economic Growth GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Domestic economy witnessed 7.1% GDP growth during the first quarter (Apr - Jun) of fiscal 2016-17 (Q1FY17) as
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th November, 2016
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2016 Governor s Presentation to the Media 16 th November, 2016 INTRODUCTION 2 This presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC NOTE APRIL 2011
MONTHLY ECONOMIC NOTE APRIL 211 OCTOBER 2 Analyst: Adedayo Idowu a.idowu@vetiva.com Global Oil and Food Prices; Drivers and Dependencies Prominent Themes Oil and Food prices are likely to remain important
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationFinancial Year End Results Presentation to Investors and Analysts
Financial Year End 2011 Results Presentation to Investors and Analysts March 2012 Disclaimer The information presented herein is based on sources which Access Bank Plc (the Bank ) regards dependable. This
More informationKBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016
KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January
More informationEconomic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
More informationGDP Forecast Revised Due to Weak Global Outlook
5 July 2016 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW Jun 2016 GDP Forecast Revised Due to Weak Global Outlook Exports were down by 0.9%yoy in May, while trade balance moderated to RM3.2 billion. This was largely due to
More informationО КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY. December Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors
О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors December 16 USD per barrel RUB / USD 2 Oil Eхporters Production-cut Agreements Support
More information2018 BUDGET. Budget of Consolidation
2018 BUDGET Budget of Consolidation 10 November 2017 ARM Securities 2017 2018 Budget Buhari presented the Budget of Consolidation to the national assembly BUDGETED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE N6.61 trillion
More informationShort-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016
Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 30 March 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More informationHong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession?
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com September 29 Hong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession? Hong Kong staged a strong rebound in the second
More informationHSBC Global Investment Funds - India Fixed Income
HSBC Global Investment s - India Fixed Income SG Share Class AC AC 30/04/2018 Objective and Strategy The aims to provide long-term total return (meaning capital growth and income) by investing in a portfolio
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR FIRST QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th May, 2018
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR FIRST QUARTER 2018 Governor s Presentation to the Media 16 th May, 2018 INTRODUCTION 2 The presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary Policy
More informationBNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook
7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,
More informationFor personal use only
AMYF SERIES QUARTERLY UPDATE 1 OCTOBER 2016 31 DECEMBER 2016 SUMMARY AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND SERIES (AMYF SERIES) HIGHLIGHTS AMYF Series announced the following quarterly dividends and capital returns:
More informationImproved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year
ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report August 2017
IGI Life Funds Performance Report August 2017 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI for the month of Aug-17 clocks in at +3.42%YoY CPI Inflation As per
More informationVietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q
September 9, 1 Global Markets Research Economics - Vietnam Vietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q Vietnam s economy grew.93 in the past nine months (1H: +.) as momentum in the manufacturing and services
More informationExclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update
February 15, 2013 Exclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update Research Team Ryan Hakim Economist rhakim@cascadeasia.com Manuel Pakpahan Director, Investment Strategy manuel@cascadeasia.com Bank Indonesia
More informationGlobal Equites declined from Concern over Trade War
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand
More informationEconomic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015
Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5
More informationNigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014
Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group September 21 Nigeria Overview A rebasing of GDP in 213 has made Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa with the largest population; the economy is growing rapidly but remains
More informationSpain Economic Outlook Q FIRST QUARTER. Economic Outlook. Spain. Economic Outlook. Spain
Economic Outlook FIRST QUARTER 2016 Spain Economic Outlook Spain The world economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past and with more risks Spain's economy has started 2016 with
More informationThe Thai economy is viewed to moderate from last assessment from the intensified impact of the euro area s crisis on merchandise exports, which, in
1 I. Economic and inflation outlook II. Monetary policy stances going forward 2 I. Economic and inflation outlook II. Monetary policy stances going forward 3 The Thai economy is viewed to moderate from
More informationMonetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform
Thomas Shik Senior Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform The benchmark lending rate set by the People s Bank of China (PBOC) has remained the key reference for banks
More informationHSBC Global Investment Funds - India Fixed Income
HSBC Global Investment Funds India Fixed Income SG Share Class 30/04/2018 Fund Objective and Strategy The Fund aims to provide longterm total return (meaning capital growth and income) by investing in
More informationIndustrial orders, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) -2.7% Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) -0.8% Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y 5.0%
Weekly 2018 Week 01 MARTIN LOBOTKA, (+420) 777 027 165, MLobotka@42fs.com, Research@42fs.com CALENDAR DAY DATE TIME (CET)* MARKET RELEASE CONSENSUS** Monday 7-Jan-19 8:00 GER Retail sales, Nov'18, y/y
More informationAxis Corporate Debt Fund. (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds)
Axis Corporate Debt Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds) Macro economic indicators are showing signs of stability Indicator Current* Outlook Inflation
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY February 2019
% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND February 19 Consumer prices In January 19, annual inflation held at the lower bound of the Bank of Russia expectations (.% YoY). Faster growth of food prices to.% (vs.7%
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT 24 January 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous meeting of
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 22 nd November, 2017
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2017 Governor s Presentation to the Media 22 nd November, 2017 INTRODUCTION 2 The presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary
More informationEditor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017
Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017 Monday 2, 08.30 SWE: PMI Manufacturing (Sep) Index SEB Cons. Prev. PMI 60.5 -- 54.7 Manufacturing PMI showed an unexpectedly large fall in August.
More informationMonthly Economic Report
Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were
More informationEQUITY STRATEGY DIARY. Oyekunle Omotayo-Benson; Usman Olubajo
Strategy research@armsecurities.com.ng +234 1 270 1652 17 June 2016 EQUITY STRATEGY DIARY Oyekunle Omotayo-Benson; Usman Olubajo www.armsecurities.com.ng oyekunle.omotayo-benson@arm.com.ng; usman-olubajo.ajibola@arm.com.ng
More informationMARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018
MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018 1.0 Fixed Income Economics During the month, Malaysia s 4Q2017 GDP was released. Real Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) grew 5.9% YoY, slightly slower than the 6.2% recorded
More informationANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 21
July 2017 FC Research ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 21 Monetary Policy Review..... 3 Rating Outlook: Moody s... 4 Inflation... 5 M2B & Sector Credit... 7 Reserves & Liquidity...
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - November
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - November 05 - Executive summary Japanese Economy Japanese economy is likely to stay under pressure from sluggish external demand for a while.
More informationSterling Bank PLC H Investor/Creditor Presentation. July 2011
Sterling Bank PLC H1 2011 Investor/Creditor Presentation July 2011 Important Information Investor Relations This presentation has been prepared by Sterling Bank PLC. It is intended for an audience of professional
More informationMonetary Policy Report II / 2018
```````````` Central Bank of Egypt Monetary Policy Report II / 2 Monetary Policy Report II / 2 Central Bank of Egypt Disclaimer The cut-off date for the data included in this report is August 16, 2. Some
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA COMMUNIQUÉ NO 116 OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING OF MONDAY 20 th AND TUESDAY 21 st NOVEMBER, 2017
CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA COMMUNIQUÉ NO 116 OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING OF MONDAY 20 th AND TUESDAY 21 st NOVEMBER, 2017 Background The Monetary Policy Committee met on the 20 th and 21 st of
More informationAsia Bond Monitor November 2018
7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on
More informationQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW (QER)
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW (QER) Volume 2 No 4 January - March 2018 OBJECTIVES OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF KENYA The principal objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) as established in the CBK Act are:
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. January 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT January 2017 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSaudi Economic Chartbook
Saudi Economic Chartbook Hans-Peter Huber, PhD Chief Investment Officer Riyad Capital 6775 Takhassusi St. Olaya Riyadh 12331-3712 rcciooffice@riyadcapital.com Subdued Economic Activity but Fiscal Consolidation
More informationGlobal PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials July 7 th 2017 2 Widening developed and emerging world growth trends The global economy enjoyed further steady growth in June, according to
More informationSummit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri
Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Quarterly Review Global Equity Market Update GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS CALENDAR YEAR RETURNS 2002 2003 2004 2005
More informationBDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved.
BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April 2017 Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved. INTRODUCTION The BDO Monthly Trends Indices are polls of polls that pull together the results of all the main UK business
More informationMonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017
q ING BANK A.Ş. ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP MonitorING Turkey October 17 Emerging Markets October 17 USD/TRY MonitorING Turkey Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan In 17, accelerated spending and
More information2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook
211 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook Wan Murezani Wan Mohamad Head Fixed Income Research 211 Investor Briefing 22 March 211 MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer
More informationKazakhstan s economy expanded by 4.2% in 1H17, supported by growth in mining, manufacturing, construction and transportation sectors
Economics Research Desk Market Highlights: Kazakhstan 18 July 2017 Kazakhstan s economy expanded by 4.2% in 1H17, supported by growth in mining, manufacturing, construction and transportation sectors Review
More informationNATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA. Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor
NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor Belgrade, May Ladies and gentlemen, representatives of the press, dear colleagues, Welcome
More informationAugust 1, 2017 I Economics EXPECTATIONS FROM CREDIT POLICY: AUGUST 2017
EXPECTATIONS FROM CREDIT POLICY: AUGUST 2017 August 1, 2017 I Economics The third bi-monthly monetary policy review for this fiscal year is to be announced by the RBI on 2nd August 2017. It will be sixth
More informationPresentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya August 6, 2015 Outline 1. The Information basis for the MPC meeting 2.
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationEconomics. Market Insight Tuesday, 6 June, Malaysia Economy. Exports and Imports slowed down in April. Chart 1: Malaysia: External Trade
Market Insight Tuesday, 6 June, 2017 RM'bn Jan'10 Jan'11 Jan'12 Jan'13 Jan'14 Jan'15 Jan'16 Jan'17 % y-o-y Imran Nurginias Ibrahim imran@bimbsec.com.my PP16795/03/2013(031743) 03-26131733 www.bisonline.com
More informationSEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL
4 August ASEAN manufacturing PMI fell below 50 in July Drop in Asean s manufacturing PMI may be due to seasonal factors IHS Markit s ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in
More informationANNUAL REPORT AND AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 APRIL
Nomura i-cash Fund ANNUAL REPORT AND AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 APRIL 2017 MANAGER: NOMURA ISLAMIC ASSET MANAGEMENT SDN. BHD. Business Registration No.: 838564-T TRUSTEE:
More informationTerm Deposit Review: January 2019
Fixed Income Markets Credit Research 7 February 2019 Term Deposit Review: January 2019 Simon Fletcher Head of Research (+61) 3 9670 8615 simon.fletcher@bondadviser.com.au Charlie Callan Credit Analyst
More informationMonthly Economic and Financial Developments April 2006
Release Date: 30 May Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central Bank has decided
More informationUNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference. Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities: Role of Debt Strategies and Debt Managers A Policy Perspective
UNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference 9-11 November 2009 Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities: Role of Debt Strategies and Debt Managers A Policy Perspective by Mr. Udaibir S. Das Monetary and Capital
More informationPPI Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price
31 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW June 2018 Producer Price Index Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price grew for the first time in 2018. Malaysia s producer prices increased by 0.1%yoy in
More information3rd Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review, Kotak Mutual Fund Update as on 9 th August
3rd Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review, 2016-17 Kotak Mutual Fund Update as on 9 th August 2016 1 Monetary Measures: Key Rates Measures CRR Unchanged at 4.00% Reverse Repo rate Unchanged at 6.00% (affixed
More informationEUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
More informationWeekly 2018 Week 29 WEEK AHEAD. Market Research Czech Republic & Eurozone. July
Weekly 218 Week 29 MARTIN LOBOTKA, (+42) 777 27 165, MLobotka@42fs.com, Research@42fs.com CALENDAR DAY DATE TIME (CET)* MARKET RELEASE CONSENSUS** 42FS Monday 23-Jul 16: EMU Tuesday 24-Jul 9: CZ 24-Jul
More informationJUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
BOT raised GDP growth forecasts for and 2018 BOT kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% for eighteen straight month Bank of Thailand (BOT) maintained its policy rate, i.e. one-day repurchase rate, at 1.5%
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 27 March 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. May 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary
More informationGratuity Fund Performance
Gratuity Fund Performance Monthly Fund Update, May 13 IN THIS POLICY, THE INVESTMENT RISK IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO IS BORNE BY THE POLICYHOLDER ECONOMY ECONOMY S.No. Indicators Mar-13 Apr-13 M-o-M Variation
More informationYear in review Summary
Summary Canadian equities declined in 2018 and underperformed their global peers in Canadian dollar terms. U.S. equities also corrected as the risk of slowing pace of economic expansion, higher interest
More informationMarket P/E (X) : Year Avg. Daily Turnover : USD Million Market Cap to GDP Ratio : 21%
Market P/E (X) : 16.78 5 Year Avg. Daily Turnover : USD 68.26 Million Market Cap to GDP Ratio : 21% Bangladesh Capital Market Commentary: Bangladesh equities market continued to exhibit a resilient performance
More informationInflation Remains Tepid in November at 0.2% as Transport Cost Trending Downward
19 December 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW November 2018 Consumer Price Index Inflation Remains Tepid in November at 0.2% as Transport Cost Trending Downward Headline inflation back to near 4-year low. Consumer
More information