Earnings get stamina from pension stake disposal

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1 Equity Research February 2017 Access Bank Plc. Stock Update Earnings get stamina from pension stake disposal Access disposes its stake in SIPML Late on Friday, Access filed a notice on the NSE that it had obtained regulatory approval for the disposal of its 17.6% stake in Stanbic IBTC Pensions Managers Limited (SIPML) - the pension subsidiary of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc. The disposal is in line with CBN s regulatory requirements in 2010 which mandated that banks without holding company s authorization divest equity holdings in non-core banking entities. SIPML is the largest pension fund administrator in Nigeria with 1.4million RSA contributors and AUM of N1.6 trillion using its most recent audited accounts (2015). Transaction raises prospect for sizable gain Access acquired the SIPML stake in 2007 for N75 million and as at 9M 2016 using a P/B multiple, the bank fair valued its stake at N957 million. Though the notice did not include information regarding the deal size, we look at data on precedent transactions in the sector over the last three years. (OVERWEIGHT: N7.96) Income Statement Data M'm M'm %chg Gross Earnings 274, ,590 7% PBT 72,004 60,372 19% Tax (14,909) (12,279) 21% PAT 57,095 48,093 19% Balance Sheet Data 2016-Sep 'm Dec'm %chg Cash 603, ,409 26% Loans 1,800,939 1,365,831 32% Deposits 2,098,561 1,683,244 25% Fixed Asset 83,104 73,330 13% Net Assets 442, ,801 20% Stock Data Price N week range N3.60 N7.18 Market Cap. (N'm) 200,760 1-month Avg. Vol 25,038,143 Curr. PE 2.6x Bloomberg Ticker ACCESS:NL Access Bank Plc- Share Price Trend Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Analyst(s) Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Wale Okunrinboye adewale.okunrinboye@arm.com.ng

2 Table 1: Data on recent M&A in Nigerian PFA space Date Investor PFA Deal size ($'m) Stake Net Assets (N m) Transaction size to book value (x) 2014 Helios ARM Pensions 50.0 Minority* 3,792 n/a 2015 Actis Sigma Pensions 62.0 Majority* 3,444 n/a 2015 Axa Mansard Penman Pensions % 1, Source: Wall Street Journal, Actis, Axa Mansard Plc 2015 Annual report, ARM Research * no disclosure on size of stake In its most recent audited report, SIPML net assets stood at N17.8 billion implying Access share on book value basis of N3.1 billion. Using multiples from AXA Mansard s 60% acquisition of Penman Pensions at 2.5x net assets, we estimate that Access should have sold its take deal size of at least N7 billion which should generate a profit on its income statement. That said, Penman Pensions was a relatively small pension fund with AUM of circa 1% of SIPML. A naïve scaling for AUM size suggests potential valuation north of N12 billion. Overall, we see higher prospects for Access to report significant gains on this transaction in its income statement. In keeping with trends in the Nigerian environment where announcement of special dividends accompany disposals of investments, there exists higher prospects for a special dividend announcement. Nevertheless, given the current soft macro environment, one could argue that Access could retain some of the profits from the transaction to bolster capital buffers. We remain positive on Access ahead of FY 16E release We have been bullish on Access over the last one year as the bank positioned itself to be a beneficiary from naira weakness in 2016 via several cross-currency swaps ($900million outstanding as 9M 16). Furthermore, its low exposure to upstream O&G (5% of loan book) and no exposure to troubled power sector loans implied limited exposure to sectors facing macro headwinds. We think the announcement implies fresh upside to our earnings estimates (2016E: +21% YoY) and prospects for the announcement of a special dividend could spur share price rally. The stock closed 5% higher on Friday following the announcement.

3 Last weekend, the Access-Lagos Marathon took place with Kenyan runner Abraham Kiptum winning the 42km dash round the streets of Lagos for the second year running, shaving one minute of his 2016 time to finish the race in 2hours 15 minutes. As with the Kenyan, chances appear bright that Access looks set for the best FY 16 results announcement with a fresh burst of pace from the sale of the SIPML investment. We have positive view on Access with an OVERWEIGHT rating (FVE: N7.96). Figure 1: PBT/PAT growth and DPS PBT (N'billion) PAT (N'billion) DPS - RHS E Source: Company financials, ARM Research On a related note, in the typical merger arbitrage move, Stanbic could succumb to negative sentiment as investors fret over the likely source of funding for the purchase of Access minority stake in SIPML. Given its failed attempt at raising capital, worry of potential cut in dividend payout ratios or fresh gearing to fund the purchase could spur bearish sentiments against the stock.

4 Summary of Results and Forecasts - Naira (N) QUARTERLY Income Statement (N 000)* Q1 2016A Q2 2016A Q3 2016A Q4 2016E Gross earnings 80,272 93,838 92, ,681 Interest Income 55,437 56,855 61,960 70,467 Interest Expense (20,814) (23,027) (24,681) (28,698) Net interest income 34,623 33,828 37,278 41,768 Non-Interest Revenue 24,737 36,982 30,437 33,271 OPEX (34,378) (35,556) (35,811) (41,661) Provisions (2,398) (7,814) (3,302) (17,078) PBT 22,583 27,440 28,602 16,301 Tax (3,164) (7,372) (4,290) 588 PAT 19,419 20,068 24,312 16,888 ANNUAL Income Statement (N 000) * FY 2014A FY 2015A FY 2016E FY 2017F FY 2018F Gross earnings 245, , , , ,025 Interest Income 176, , , , ,990 Interest Expense (76,901) (102,421) (107,901) (117,732) (140,481) Net interest income 100, , , , ,509 Non-Interest Revenue 68, , , , ,035 OPEX (104,605) (145,569) (150,603) (158,436) (167,687) Provisions (11,652) (14,225) (27,941) (24,814) (22,188) PBT 52,022 75,038 90,635 78,192 71,670 Tax (8,959) (9,169) (15,408) (15,638) (14,334) PAT 43,063 65,869 75,227 62,554 57,336 Balance Sheet (N 000) * Assets Net Loans 1,110,464 1,365,831 1,862,732 1,908,775 2,017,128 Fixed Assets 69,660 73,330 75,530 77,796 80,130 LT investment 357, , , , ,940 Other Assets 104, , , , ,626 Total Assets 2,104,361 2,591,330 3,494,355 3,587,471 3,737,058 Liabilities Deposits 1,454,419 1,683,244 2,188,218 2,231,982 2,298,941 Borrowings 221, , , , ,327 Total liabilities 1,826,950 2,223,529 3,028,736 3,076,994 3,185,466 Shareholders' fund 277, , , , ,592 Key Ratios FY 2014A FY 2015A FY 2016E FY 2017F FY 2018F EPS DPS BVPS ROE 16.5% 18.3% 18.1% 12.8% 10.8% ROA 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.6% Financial Leverage Asset yields 12.9% 11.5% 11.8% 11.1% 11.4% WACF 4.6% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.7% Net interest margins 7.3% 5.9% 6.7% 6.2% 5.9% Cost to income 62% 62% 56% 61% 64% Cost of risk 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% NPL ratio 2.2% 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% Loan to Deposit 76% 81% 85% 86% 88% Liquidity ratio 28% 33% 38% 38% 38% Source: ARM Research *unless otherwise stated

5 ARM ratings and recommendations ARM now employs a two-tier rating system which is based on systemic importance of the security under review and the deviation of our target price for the stock from current market price. We characterize systemic importance as a function of a stock s ranking among the group of top 20 stocks by NSE market capitalization over a trailing 6 month period (minimum) to the review date. We adopt a 5 point rating system for this category of stocks and a 3 point rating system for stocks outside this group. The choice of top 20 stocks arises from the consideration that this group of stocks constitutes >75% of overall market capitalization and stocks outside this group are generally less liquid and individually account for <<1% of market capitalization. For stocks in both categories, the basis for ratings subject to target price deviation is outlined below: TOP 20 NON-TOP 20 Rating Deviation Rating Deviation STRONG BUY >20% BUY >20% OVERWEIGHT 10% 20 % NEUTRAL 5% 20 % NEUTRAL 0% 10 % SELL <5% UNDERWEIGHT -5% 0% SELL <-5% RECOMMENDATION KEY Rating BUY OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL UNDERWEIGHT SELL Recommendation Accumulate security to a substantial extent constrained only by portfolio diversification considerations Accumulate security to an extent moderated by cognizance of its benchmark weight Maintain status quo for security with respect to current holding i.e. keep if already holding and don t buy otherwise subject to reasonab portfolio constraints Minimise exposure to security taking cognizance of its index weighting Sell-off security completely from portfolio

6 Copyright 2017 ARM Securities Limited ( ARMS ). All rights reserved. Unauthorised use, reproduction, distribution, or disclosure of this document is strictly prohibited. This material has been issued by ARM Securities Limited, a member of the Asset and Resource Management ( ARM ) Group, and a Company regulated by the Nigerian Securities & Exchange Commission. The analyst(s) primarily responsible for preparing this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer covered; all of the views expressed accurately reflect his/her personal views about the subject securities and issuers and no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in the report. This research report is based on information from sources that ARMS and its analysts believe to be reliable. Neither ARMS nor any of its research analysts, nor any member of the ARM Group, gives any representation or warranty, express or implied, or undertaking of any kind or assumes responsibility or liability of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information set out in this report or any third party s use (or the results of such use) of such information. This report is provided solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as providing advice, recommendations, or endorsements of any kind whatsoever. The investments and strategies discussed here may not be suitable for all investors; counsel of investment advisor should be obtained with regard to such investments and or strategies. This research report is not a replacement for advice from an accountant, lawyer, personal finance advisor or other category of investment advisor. The investments discussed in this report may oscillate in price or value. Opinions and information provided are made as of the date of the report issue and are subject to change without notice. This research report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Reference herein to any specific security or financial instrument does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement or recommendation by ARMS, its directors, officers, employees or designated agents. Members of ARM may act as broker, advisor or lender, or make a market in any investments or issuers referenced in this report. Further information on any of the securities discussed herein may be obtained upon request to ARMS. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

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