Saudi Stock Market Report

Transcription

1 Market Snapshots TASI Intra-day Movement Market Commentary Saudi market trading flat as investors continue to play safe The Saudi market continued to trade in a narrow range as investors largely avoided fresh positions in the event of an increasingly grim global economic outlook. The Saudi bourse seems to be factoring in the sluggish global growth and possibility of a sovereign debt default by Greece. The Tadawul All Share Index in a largely flat trading on Sunday ended at 6,112.41, dipping 4.3 points, after attempting a failed Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Market Summary Index Close pullback. Out of the total fifteen sectors, five sectors closed in the positive territory with the market breadth being negative in the ratio of 67:58. The bourse s turnover crossed SAR 5bn mark at SAR 5.32bn, with a total of 234.0mn shares changing hands. Value Traded Volume 234,002,082 Trades 132,143 Symbols Traded 146 Market Breadth 58:67 Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Indices Summary Index Close MTD YTD Tadawul All Share Index 6, Banks & Financial Services 14, Petrochemical Industries 6, Cement 4, Retail 5, Energy & Utilities 4, Agriculture & Food Ind. 4, The Petrochemical Sector reported a minor drop, held up by Ministry of Petroleum statement that the oil markets are currently balanced in Saudi Arabia. Heavy-weight SABIC slipped 0.3 to SAR Petro Rabigh and SIIG rose more than 1.0 each. The Banking Sector closed in flat mode, down 0.1, with Al Rajhi and SAMBA closing unchanged. Riyad Bank dropped 0.4. The Cement Sector added 0.3 whilst the Retail Sector dipped 0.3. The Retail stock, Thim ar (down 3.7), was the top loser in the sector. The Agriculture & Food Sector slumped 1.3, with Jouff Agriculture, NADEC and Tabuk Agriculture slumping more than 5.0 each and were the among the top losers of the day. The large cap, SAVOLA Group and Almarai declined 1.2 and 0.3 respectively. Among the Telecom stocks,stc and Mobily moved up 0.3 and 0.5 respectively whilst ZAIN KSA and Almutakamela lost 0.8 and 0.4 respectively. The Multi- Investment Sector slumped 1.1, with Al Baha (down 9.9) gave up Telecom & IT 1, earlier gains and topped the losers list. The Multi-Investment and Insurance Multi-Investment 2, Industrial Investment 5, Industrial Investment leaders, Kingdom Holding and Ma aden, closed unchanged. The state-controlled entity Saudi Electricity gained 0.8. The Insurance Sector (up 2.8) was the top gainer of the day. Building & Construction 2, The Saudi market is currently trading in hope and despair mode. Signs Real Estate Development 2, of slumping global economy is adding to despair whilst hopes are Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism 2, , , currently pinned on the expected positive earning session. Volatility is likely to remain in the Saudi market with Tadawul seeking direction from global market trend on Monday. Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Regional Market Statistics Index Close Volume ( 000) Turnover (US$ 000) No. of Trades MTD YTD Abu Dhabi SM 2, ,301 15, Dubai FM 1, ,412 8, Kuwait SE 5, ,508 47,434 2, Doha SM 1, ,229 29,595 2, Muscat SM 5, ,256 4, Bahrain SE 1, , Source: Official websites of the Regional Stock Exchanges 1

2 Market Movers & Shakers Top Gainers Closing Volume (mn) Top Losers Closing Volume (mn) Al Alamiya Al Rajhi Takaful Solidarity ACE ATC Al Baha Jouff Agriculture NADEC Tabuk Agriculture FIPCO Volume Leaders Value Leaders Closing Volume (mn) Closing Value (SAR mn) Qassim Agriculture Alinma Al Baha Solidarity SABIC Week New High / Low Closing New High Buruj New Low SABIC Al Baha Qassim Agriculture Solidarity Tabuk Agriculture Stocks consistently gaining / losing over last three trading sessions (Top 6) Current 3 Days 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn) Buruj Maadaniyah Al Alamiya Almarai Petrochem Anaam Holding Sector Turnover (SAR mn) Sector Volume (mn) Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries Telecom. & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism Source: Data pertaining to all the tables and charts in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 2

3 Saudi Technical Watch R: Resistance S: Support PP: Pivot Point The Tadawul on Sunday found support at our suggested level 6,090 and closed below the 10 day DEMA (6,118). The Index is finding strong support at the 40 day DEMA (6,044). The MACD is in positive mode whilst the CCI is giving flat signal. The Head & Shoulder pattern on RSI indicates unusual movement in the coming sessions. The Saudi Index is likely to take support at 6,090, 6,077 and 6,044 levels, whilst it may face resistance at 6,118, 6130 and 6,151. TASI 6, , , , , Tadawul All Shares Index SABIC SABIC is facing strong resistance at the 10 day DEMA (91.80) whilst strong support is found at The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the Stochastic and the Williams R are giving negative signal. Investors may buy the stock only above 92.00, with a stop loss of 91.00, for a target of and Saudi Basic Industries Corp. 3

4 Saudi Technical Watch STC STC on Sunday hit an intra-day high of 34.30, near to our suggested first target of The stock closed above the 10 day DEMA (34.14). The technical indicators such as the MACD, the Stochastics and the CCI are giving positive signal. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 34.20, for a target of Saudi Telecom Co. Al Rajhi Al Rajhi on Sunday formed a Doji pattern and closed at the 10 and 20 day DEMAs (69.25). The MACD is in positive mode whilst the Stochastics is giving negative signal. The CCI and the RSI is in flat mode. Investors may exit the stock, with a stop loss of (on a closing basis), for a target of Al Rajhi Bank 4

5 Saudi Technical Watch SECO Saudi Electricity on Sunday hit our suggested stop loss of and closed marginally below it. The stock is trading above the 10 day DEMA (13.38) and is facing resistance at 125 day SMA (13.51). The MACD and the CCI are in positive mode. Investors may remain long, with a stop loss of for the target of Saudi Electricity Co. MA ADEN MA ADEN on Sunday found resistance at the 10 day DEMA (25.55) and traded in the range of Inside Bar pattern formed on Saturday. The 200 day SMA (25.23) is acting as support. The MACD and the CCI are giving mild negative signal. Risk takers may buy the stock, with a stop loss of (on a closing basis) for a target of and Saudi Arabian Mining Co. 5

6 GCC Technical Watch EMAAR EMAAR on Sunday hit an intraday high of 2.75, marginally below our suggested buying trigger of The stock is trading below the 20 day DEMA (2.75) but at the 10 day DEMA (2.74). The MACD and CCI are in mild negative mode. Investors may buy the stock only above 2.76, with a stop loss of 2.74, for a target of 2.78 and Emaar Properties (Dubai Financial Market) ARTC ARTC on Sunday formed a Doji pattern and is trading at the 10 and 20 day DEMAs. The stock is facing resistance at the 40 day DEMA (1.36). The MACD and the CCI is in negative mode. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 1.36, for a target of 1.32 and Arabtec Holding (Dubai Financial Market) 6

7 GCC Technical Watch Dana DANA on Sunday traded in the range of Triangle pattern and formed a Doji pattern at the lower level. The MACD and the short-term Stochastic is giving positive signal whilst the RSI is in flat mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 0.54, for a target of Dana Gas PJSC (Abu Dhabi Securities Market) IQCD IQCD on Sunday hit our suggested stop loss of and closed marginally below it. The stock is trading at the 20 day DEMA (122.60) with the 40 day DEMA (121.55) acting as strong support. The MACD is in positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of (on a closing basis), for a target of Industries of Qatar (Doha Securities Market) 7

8 GCC Technical Watch KFIN KFIN on Sunday hit our suggested stop loss of 910 and closed at it. The stock is trading above the 10 day DEMA (908.56). The technical indicators such as the MACD, the CCI and the Stochastics are in negative mode. Investors may exit the stock and wait for our next call. Kuwait Finance House (Kuwait Stock Exchange) 8

9 Corporate News & Announcements The Saudi Stock Exchange on Sunday announced that the number of free floated shares for all companies have been revised as at the end of third quarter The revised number of free floated shares per company is used in the calculation of Tadawul Indices and is effective from 01/10/2011. The Saudi Stock Exchange on Sunday announced that the following companies and Sukuk have been included to Tadawul Indices as the stock and Sukuk close prices as on 28/09/2011. o Saudi Integrated Telecom o United Wire Factories o Saudi International Petrochemical Sukuk (Source: Tadawul) 9

10 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () RIBL , , BJAZ , , SIBC , Saudi Hollandi , Saudi Fransi , , SABB , , Arab National , , SAMBA , , Al Rajhi , , AL Bilad , , Alinma , , , N/A CHEMANOL ,151 25, N/A N/A , Petrochem , N/A N/A ,680 N/A 2.2 N/A SABIC , , , SAFCO , , Industrialization , , Alujain , , N/A Nama Chemicals ,231 30, , N/A SIIG ,368 26, , Sahara Petrochemical ,616 54, , YANSAB ,170 52, ,088 N/A 2.8 N/A Sipchem ,726 49, , N/A Advanced , , Saudi Kayan , , N/A N/A ,725 N/A 1.7 N/A Petro Rabigh ,024 50, N/A N/A , N/A Arab Cement , , Yamamah Cement , , Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 10

11 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Saudi Cement , , Qassim Cement , , Southern Cement , N/A Yanbu Cement , , Eastern Cement , , Tabuk Cement , , Joufcmnt ,468 21, ,879 N/A 1.4 N/A A.Othaim Market , , Mouwasat , , SASCO , N/A Thim'ar ,692 38, N/A N/A N/A Fitaihi Group ,063 12, Jarir , Aldrees , , AlHokair , , Alkhaleej Trng , Gas&Industrialization , , Saudi Electricity ,339 58, , SAVOLA Group , , Food ,101 48, SADAFCO , , Almarai , , Anaam Holding ,239 72, N/A HB , , HERFY , ,032 N/A 5.0 N/A NADEC ,408 38, , Qassim Agriculture , , N/A N/A Tabuk Agriculture , , Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 11

12 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Saudi Fisheries ,163 47, N/A N/A N/A Sharqiya Dev Co , , N/A N/A N/A Jouff Agriculture ,330 70, Bishah Agriculture N/A N/A N/A 6.9 N/A N/A N/A Jazan Development ,301 48, N/A N/A , STC ,047 35, , Etihad Etisalat , , ZAIN KSA ,468 27, N/A N/A , N/A Atheeb Telecom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Almutakamela N/A ,040 73, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tawuniya , , Malath Insurance ,023 16, MEDGULF , , N/A ALLIANZSF , N/A N/A N/A SALAMA , Walaa Insurance , N/A N/A N/A Arabian Shield , N/A SABB Takaful ,015 81, N/A N/A N/A SANAD , N/A N/A N/A SAICO , N/A N/A N/A Saudi Indian , N/A N/A N/A Gulf Union , N/A N/A N/A ATC , , N/A N/A N/A Al-Ahlia , N/A N/A N/A ACIG , N/A N/A N/A AICC , N/A N/A N/A Trade Union , N/A Sagr Insurance , N/A UCA , N/A Saudi Re ,463 41, N/A N/A N/A Bupa Arabia , N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 12

13 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Weqaya Takaful , , N/A N/A N/A ARCCI ,922 92, N/A N/A , N/A ACE , , N/A N/A N/A 5.5 N/A AXA-Cooperative ,432 47, N/A N/A N/A Gulf General ,875 55, N/A N/A N/A Buruj N/A N/A N/A ALALAMIYA , , N/A N/A N/A 4.5 N/A Solidarity , , N/A N/A ,079 N/A 2.2 N/A WATANiYA , N/A N/A N/A AMANAINSURANCE ,491 85, N/A N/A , N/A SARCO , N/A Saudi Advanced ,025 27, N/A N/A Al Ahsa for Dev ,227 22, SISCO ,545 31, N/A N/A Assir ,268 29, , Al Baha , , N/A N/A N/A Kingdom , , BCI , MAADEN , N/A N/A , Astra Indust , , N/A AlSorayai Group , N/A SHAKER , ,240 N/A N/A N/A Pharmaceutical , , Glass , , FIPCO ,635 56, N/A Maadaniyah , , N/A N/A Saudi Chemical , , SPM , , N/A AlAbdullatif , , Saudi Export ,261 33, N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 13

14 Current () MTD YTD Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta ASLAK N/A , MMG , N/A N/A , SSP , , N/A ALKHODARI , , N/A Ceramic , , Gypsum , Cables ,017 13, N/A N/A Saudi Industrial ,853 37, N/A N/A Amiantit ,133 32, , Pipes , N/A N/A Zamil Industrial ,468 41, , AL Babtain ,036 23, SVCP N/A MESC ,108 17, N/A N/A Red Sea , , Real Estate , , Taiba , , Makkah , Arriyadh Development , , Emaar E.C ,142 20, N/A N/A , N/A Jabal Omar ,047 12, N/A N/A , N/A Dar Al Arkan ,514 15, , KEC ,511 26, N/A N/A , N/A Shipping ,463 17, , SAPTCO ,437 10, Mubarrad ,472 26, N/A N/A Budget Saudi , Tihama , SRMG , , SPPC ,115 14, Hotels , , Shams ,428 33, N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () 14

15 Definition - Technical Indicators Candlestick Patterns, Doji DojiI is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value indicates bearish momentum. Hammer A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend. Inverse-black-hammer: a bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day. Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average) Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side. DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A crossover of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside for a short time. MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. RSI - Relative Strength Index When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or sttock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an overbought level. ROC When the ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock. Stochastic Oscillators When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. Williams R When Williams R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds. There are two methods of interpreting the CCI: 1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price. 2. As an overbought/oversold indicator The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci Levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and

16 Whipsaw A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name. Gravestone Doji In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal. Inside Bar An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts. Big Bar A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern. Higher High This implies that today s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Lower High This implies that today s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Higher Low This implies that today s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Lower Low This implies that today s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Triangle This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line) or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line). Standard Error Channel Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it depends on the traders' common opinion. s trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes. Long Headed Doji Pattern This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels. 16

17 Double Tops / Double Bottoms A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is important for trading double tops or double bottoms. Three White Soldiers Formation The Three White Soldiers formation indicates a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed higher than the previous day, with each session's open occurring within the body of the previous candle. Bullish Harami Cross Pattern This is a Doji contained within a large black body. This is a bottom reversal signal. 17

18 Contact Us Dr. Saleh Alsuhaibani Head of Research Tel : alsuhaibanis@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital Research Department P.O Box 5561 Riyadh Saudi Arabia Tel : Fax : research@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, No /37. Disclaimer This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital ( Al Rajhi Capital ) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi Capital s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments, including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital, together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained in this research document. This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 18