Saudi Stock Market Report

Transcription

1 TASI Intra-day Movement Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Market Summary Market Snapshots Close Value Traded 8,353,043, Volume 336,556,304 Trades 228,895 Symbols Traded 149 Market Breadth 66:59 Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Indices Summary Index Close MTD YTD Tadawul All Share Index 6, Banks & Financial Services 15, Petrochemical Industries 6, Cement 5, Retail 6, Energy & Utilities 5, Agriculture & Food Ind. 6, Telecom & IT 1, Insurance Multi-Investment 3, Industrial Investment 5, Building & Construction 3, Real Estate Development 2, Transport 3, Media and Publishing 2, Hotel & Tourism 6, Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Close Volume ( 000) Market Commentary Global equities close mixed The U.S. equities gained on Tuesday with the DJIA crossing its highest level since May 2008 amid investors optimism that Greece is making progress towards a constructive deal that will help the country to avoid a debt default. The European stocks opened with high negative gap but trimmed losses as Greece made progress on measures to secure aid. Brent crude pared early gains after rising above $117 per barrel to push its premium to NYMEX crude above $20 a barrel, NYMEX Crude rose over 1.5 and crossed $98 per barrel. Tadawul records a modest gain The Tadawul All Shares Index rebounded after Monday s correction and closed up 0.1, at 6, The bourse turnover remained above the SAR8bn mark. The exchange bellwether SABIC closed unchanged whilst the largest listed lender in the Kingdom Al Rajhi retreated by 0.3. The market gains were propelled by selective buying whilst several large-caps extended profit taking. The large-caps lenders, SAMBA rose 0.6 whilst Riyad Bank climbed 0.4 after its Senior Vice President Hisham Al-Abdali said that Riyad bank anticipates that 2012 profit will increase as much as last year, boosted by government spending. The mid-cap petrochemical stock, Alujain was a significant winner of the session and jumped 2.4. Large-caps such as STC, Zain KSA and Ma aden suffered correction and dropped 0.6, 2.7 and 1.0 respectively, whilst Kingdom Holding rallied 2.0 after the company announced the expansion of its key project in Riyadh, Kingdom Centre (Trade Centre) at an investment of SAR43.8mn. Takween made its trading debut in the Tadawul bourse under the Industrial Investment Sector and closed 125 above its IPO price. Takween was the most active stock of the day and reported a turnover of SAR1.37bn. Newsmakers Greece's government is preparing a document with a list of painful reforms needed to clinch a new financing package, a government official said. (Bloomberg) Saudi Market Outlook The market outlook is mixed. While the global positive cues and rising crude prices will induce buyers to buy, selective profit taking may not be ruled out. Regional Market Statistics Turnover (US$ 000) No. of Trades MTD YTD Abu Dhabi SM 2, ,699 18, Dubai FM 1, , ,564 3, Kuwait SE 5, , ,270 5, Doha SM 8, ,163 60,563 3, Muscat SM 5, ,180 10,725 1, Bahrain SE 1, Source: Official websites of the Regional Stock Exchanges 1

2 Market Movers & Shakers Top Gainers Closing Volume (mn) Top Losers Closing Volume (mn) Takween SALAMA ASLAK SISCO BCI Trade Union Buruj Sharqiya Dev Co Tawuniya ALLIANZ SF Volume Leaders Value Leaders Closing Volume (mn) Closing Value (SAR mn) Alinma Takween ZAIN KSA Saudi Re Nama Chemicals Week New High / Low Closing New High Yamamah Cement AlHokair SISCO Assir Pharmaceutical Mubarrad New Low Takween , Alinma SABIC SISCO Solidarity Stocks consistently gaining / losing over last three trading sessions (Top 6) Current 3 Days 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn) ALLIANZ SF Al Alamiya Buruj H B KEC Jazan Development Sector Turnover (SAR mn) Sector Volume (mn) , , , Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries Telecom. & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism Source: Data pertaining to all the tables and charts in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 2

3 Saudi Technical Watch R: Resistance S: Support PP: Pivot Point The TASI is facing resistance at the 10 day DEMA (6,748) and on Tuesday closed below it. The 20 day DEMA (6,695) is acting as strong support. The MACD is in a positive mode. The RSI, the short-term Stochastic and the Williams R are in an overbought zone, indicating that a modest correction may not be overruled. The Index is likely to take support at 6,729, 6,704 and 6,676 whilst it may face resistance at 6,767, 6,786 and 6,803. TASI 6, , , , , Tadawul All Shares Index SABIC SABIC on Tuesday traded above our suggested stop loss of and closed above the 10 day DEMA (95.04). The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 94.40, for a target of and Saudi Basic Industries Corp. 3

4 Saudi Technical Watch STC STC saw profit taking at a higher level but closed above the 10 day DEMA (35.67). The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the CCI is partially overbought. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 35.65, for a target of Saudi Telecom Co. Al Rajhi Al Rajhi Bank Al Rajhi on Tuesday traded above our suggested stop loss of and closed marginally above the 20 day DEMA (73.65). The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 73.45, for a target of

5 Saudi Technical Watch SECO Saudi Electricity traded above our suggested stop loss of and formed a Doji pattern. The 20 day DEMA (13.88) is acting as strong support. The MACD and the RSI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 13.90, for a target of Saudi Electricity Co. MA ADEN Saudi Arabian Mining Co. MA ADEN again slipped below the 10 day DEMA (29.30). The MACD and the RSI are in a positive mode. Risk takers may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 29.40, for a target and

6 GCC Technical Watch EMAAR Emaar Properties (Dubai Financial Market) EMAAR on Tuesday moved nearer our suggested target of 2.77 and closed marginally below the 10 day DEMA (2.84). The short-term Stochastic and the Williams R are in an overbought zone. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 2.85, for a target of 2.77 and ARTC Arabtec Holding (Dubai Financial Market) ARTC is still in an overbought zone. The RSI, the short-term Stochastic and the Williams R are trading in an overbought zone. Investors may avoid the stock for the time being and wait for our next call. 6

7 GCC Technical Watch Dana DANA on Tuesday formed a Doji pattern and closed above the 10 day DEMA (0.418). The stock is taking support at its trend line (0.41). Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 0.41, for a target of Dana Gas PJSC (Abu Dhabi Securities Market) IQCD Industries of Qatar (Doha Securities Market) IQCD traded above our suggested stop loss of and closed above the 10 day DEMA (134.48). The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of , for a target of

8 GCC Technical Watch KFIN Kuwait Finance House (Kuwait Stock Exchange) KFIN on Tuesday moved nearer our suggested target of 830 and closed above the 10 day DEMA (858). The MACD is giving a negative signal. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 870, for a target of

9 Corporate News & Announcements United Wire Factories (ASLAK) announced that its net income for the year ended December 31, 2011 was SAR106.9mn, as compared to a net income of SAR115.7mn for year 2010, representing a decrease of 7.6. (Source: Tadawul) The total number of Saudi Telecom Co. (STC) Group subscribers has surpassed 160mn customers all over the world, CEO of STC Group Eng. Saud bin Majed Al-Daweesh said. (Source: Arab News) Kingdom Holding has announced the expansion of its key project in Riyadh, Kingdom Centre (Trade Centre) at an investment of SAR43.8mn. (Source: Trade Arabia) 9

10 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () RIBL , , BJAZ , , Saudi Investment , , Saudi Hollandi Bank , Saudi Fransi Bank , , SABB , , Arab National , , SAMBA , , Al Rajhi ,257 92, , AL Bilad , , Alinma , , , N/A CHEMANOL ,754 39, , Petrochem , N/A N/A ,128 N/A 2.1 N/A SABIC , , , SAFCO , , Industrialization , , Alujain ,189 99, N/A N/A , N/A Nama Chemicals , , N/A N/A , N/A SIIG , , Sahara Petrochemical ,022 31, , YANSAB , ,481 N/A 2.6 N/A Sipchem , , N/A Advanced ,612 48, , Saudi Kayan ,348 37, N/A N/A ,225 N/A 1.6 N/A Petro Rabigh ,544 34, N/A N/A , N/A Arab Cement , , N/A Yamamah Cement , , Saudi Cement , , Qassim Cement , , Southern Cement , , Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 10

11 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Yanbu Cement , , N/A Eastern Cement , Tabuk Cement , , Jouf Cement ,684 62, , HCC ,973 54, N/A N/A ,405 N/A 1.8 N/A A. Othaim Market , , Mouwasat , , EXTRA , N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SASCO ,502 47, N/A Thim ar ,170 39, N/A Fitaihi Group ,507 75, N/A N/A Jarir , , Aldrees , , AlHokair , , AlKhaleej Trng , Gas&Industrialization , , Saudi Electricity ,908 40, , SAVOLA Group , , Food , SADAFCO , , Almarai , , Anaam Holding , N/A HB , , Herfy Foods ,511 N/A 6.3 N/A NADEC , , Qassim Agriculture ,123 32, N/A N/A , Tabuk Agriculture ,164 40, Saudi Fisheries ,703 63, N/A N/A N/A Sharqiya Dev. Co , N/A N/A N/A Jouff Agriculture , Bishah Agriculture N/A N/A N/A 6.2 N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 11

12 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Jazan Development ,524 39, N/A N/A , STC ,576 56, , Mobily ,197 69, , ZAIN KSA , , N/A N/A , N/A Atheeb Telecom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Almutakamela ,686 37, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tawuniya , , Malath Insurance ,161 24, MEDGULF , , N/A ALLIANZ SF , , N/A N/A N/A SALAMA ,717 70, N/A N/A Walaa Insurance ,520 35, N/A N/A N/A Arabian Shield ,457 51, N/A SABB Takaful ,991 66, N/A N/A , N/A SANAD , N/A N/A N/A SAICO ,006 41, N/A N/A N/A Saudi Indian , N/A N/A N/A Gulf Union ,043 22, N/A N/A N/A ATC , N/A N/A N/A Al-Ahlia ,026 40, N/A N/A N/A ACIG ,097 42, N/A N/A N/A AICC ,083 60, N/A Trade Union ,152 70, N/A Sagr Insurance ,153 35, N/A UCA ,283 80, N/A Saudi Re , , N/A N/A , N/A Bupa Arabia , , N/A Weqaya Takaful ,324 45, N/A N/A N/A Al Rajhi Takaful ,321 76, N/A N/A , N/A ACE ,297 78, N/A N/A N/A 7.1 N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 12

13 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () AXA-Cooperative ,436 53, N/A N/A N/A Gulf General ,772 77, N/A N/A N/A Buruj , , N/A N/A N/A Al Alamiya , , N/A N/A N/A 5.7 N/A Solidarity , , N/A N/A ,379 N/A 2.9 N/A Wataniya , , N/A AMANA Insurance ,516 63, N/A N/A , N/A SARCO , N/A N/A , N/A Saudi Advanced ,138 40, Al Ahsa for Dev , , N/A N/A SISCO , , N/A N/A , Assir ,790 79, , Al Baha , N/A N/A N/A Kingdom ,339 13, , N/A N/A ,666 1,370,807 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,800 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A BCI , MA ADEN ,192 34, , Astra Indust , , N/A AlSorayai Group ,854 47, N/A SHAKER , ,161 N/A N/A N/A Pharmaceutical , , Glass , , FIPCO , N/A Maadaniyah , N/A N/A Saudi Chemical , , , SPM , , N/A AlAbdullatif , , Saudi Export , N/A MMG ,163 23, N/A N/A , SSP , , N/A ALKHODARI , , N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 13

14 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Ceramic , , Gypsum , , Cables ,375 96, N/A N/A , Saudi Industrial ,124 26, Amiantit ,718 31, , Pipes , N/A N/A , Zamil Industrial , , AL Babtain , , SVCP , N/A MESC ,436 26, N/A N/A Red Sea , , ASLAK , , , Real Estate , , Taiba , , Makkah , , Arriyadh Development ,066 42, , N/A Emaar E. C ,616 81, , N/A Jabal Omar ,991 39, N/A N/A , Dar Al Arkan , , , N/A KEC ,626 42, N/A N/A , Mubarrad , N/A N/A , Shipping ,885 26, SAPTCO ,259 43, Budget Saudi , Tihama , N/A N/A , SRMG , , SPPC , , Hotels , N/A Shams , N/A N/A ,092 N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 14

15 Definition - Technical Indicators Candlestick Patterns, Doji DojiI is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value indicates bearish momentum. Hammer A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend. Inverse-black-hammer: a bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day. Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average) Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side. DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A crossover of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside for a short time. MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. RSI - Relative Strength Index When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or sttock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an overbought level. ROC When the ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock. Stochastic Oscillators When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. Williams R When Williams R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds. There are two methods of interpreting the CCI: 1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price. 2. As an overbought/oversold indicator The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci Levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and

16 Whipsaw A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name. Gravestone Doji In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal. Inside Bar An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts. Big Bar A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern. Higher High This implies that today s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Lower High This implies that today s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Higher Low This implies that today s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Lower Low This implies that today s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Triangle This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line) or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line). Standard Error Channel Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it depends on the traders' common opinion. s trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes. Long Headed Doji Pattern This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels. 16

17 Double Tops / Double Bottoms A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is important for trading double tops or double bottoms. Three White Soldiers Formation The Three White Soldiers formation indicates a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed higher than the previous day, with each session's open occurring within the body of the previous candle. Bullish Harami Cross Pattern This is a Doji contained within a large black body. This is a bottom reversal signal. 17

18 Contact Us Dr. Saleh Alsuhaibani Head of Research Tel : alsuhaibanis@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital Research Department P.O Box 5561 Riyadh Saudi Arabia Tel : Fax : research@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, No /37. Disclaimer This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital ( Al Rajhi Capital ) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi Capital s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments, including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital, together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained in this research document. This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 18