Saudi Stock Market Report

Transcription

1 Market Snapshots TASI Intra-day Movement European markets traded lower whilst U.S. equities traded volatile The European stocks closed down and the U.S. markets traded volatile on Monday as the E.U. leaders discussed to pep up Euro and amid investors expectations about the fourth-quarter earnings season. Crude oil dropped. Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Market Summary Close Value Traded 6,691,046, Volume 278,742,597 Trades 148,795 Symbols Traded 148 Market Breadth 50:75 Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Indices Summary Index Close MTD YTD Tadawul All Share Index 6, Banks & Financial Services 14, Petrochemical Industries 6, Cement 5, Retail 6, Energy & Utilities 4, Agriculture & Food Ind. 5, Telecom & IT 1, Insurance Multi-Investment 2, Industrial Investment 5, Building & Construction 3, Real Estate Development 2, Transport 2, Media and Publishing 2, Hotel & Tourism 5, Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Close Volume ( 000) Tadawul snapped its winning streak The Saudi bourse snapped its winning streak with the Tadawul All Share Index on Monday declining by 0.4 to 6, The bourse turnover remained high and was above the SAR6bn mark. The market fall was led by the Petrochemical Sector. The market bellwether SABIC dropped by 1.3 to SAR94 after a Saudi oil ministry official said that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are in talks over a claim that SABIC is dumping exports in the Turkish market. The banking stocks suffered profit taking with the largecap lenders, Al Rajhi and Riyad Bank retreating by 0.3 and 0.4 respectively. The Cement Sector also suffered profit taking after the past few sessions spectacular gains. Arab Cement and Yamamah Cement were the biggest losers in the sector and shed over 2. The state-controlled large-caps traded weak with STC closing unchanged whilst Saudi Electricity and Ma aden falling by 0.4 and 0.2 respectively. The Insurance stocks rebounded after Sunday s fall and enjoyed smart gains. Sunday s top gainer Anaam Holding was the top loser of the session and plunged 5.2 due to profit taking. Newsmakers State oil giant Saudi Aramco will sign a final deal next week to build a new 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil refinery in Yanbu with China's Sinopec Group, the company said. (Reuters) SEDCO Holding, the leading Jeddah-based investment management company, has announced its plans to expand its investments in the Kingdom market. (Saudi Gazette) Saudi Market Outlook Regional Market Statistics The market outlook is marginally positive as the large-caps are likely to rebound after Monday s profit taking. Turnover (US$ 000) No. of Trades MTD YTD Abu Dhabi SM 2, ,069 15, Dubai FM 1, ,787 19,546 1, Kuwait SE 5, ,325 77,253 2, Doha SM 8, ,722 36,058 2, Muscat SM 5, ,273 5,881 1, Bahrain SE 1, Source: Official websites of the Regional Stock Exchanges 1

2 Market Movers & Shakers Top Gainers Closing Volume (mn) Top Losers Closing Volume (mn) Bupa Arabia AICC Buruj Pipes Arabian Shield Anaam Holding Wataniya Arab Cement Saudi Fisheries Jazan Development Volume Leaders Value Leaders Closing Volume (mn) Closing Value (SAR mn) SAPTCO Alinma Emaar E.C KEC Saudi Re Week New High / Low Closing New High Arabian Shield Bupa Arabia Pipes SAPTCO SPPC New Low SABIC Buruj SAPTCO Anaam Holding Alinma Stocks consistently gaining / losing over last three trading sessions (Top 6) Current 3 Days 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn) SPPC H B AICC Alkhaleej Trng Industrialization ALKHODARI Sector Turnover (SAR mn) Sector Volume (mn) , , Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries Telecom. & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism Source: Data pertaining to all the tables and charts in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website

3 Saudi Technical Watch R: Resistance S: Support PP: Pivot Point The TASI on Monday traded below our suggested target of 6,444 and closed below the 20 day DEMA (6,450). The MACD and the CCI are giving a positive signal. However the RSI closed negative. Overall, the short-term market outlook remains positive. However, the trend may turn negative if the Index moves below the trend line (6,410). The Saudi Index may find support at 6,410, 6,327, 6,351, whilst it may see resistance at 6,458, 6,477 and 6,491. TASI 6, , , , , Tadawul All Shares Index SABIC Saudi Basic Industries Corp. SABIC on Monday traded above our suggested target of and closed below the 10 day DEMA (95.17). The MACD and the CCI are giving a negative signal. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 94.60, for a target of

4 Saudi Technical Watch STC Saudi Telecom Co. STC on Monday traded above our suggested stop loss of and closed above the 20 day DEMA (33.88). The MACD and the CCI are giving a positive signal. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of for a target of Al Rajhi Al Rajhi on Monday hit our suggested target of closed above the 10 day DEMA (71.77). The MACD is giving a positive signal, whilst the CCI is in an overbought zone. The RSI closed at Investors may exit from the stock, with a stop loss of 72.75, for a target of Al Rajhi Bank 4

5 Saudi Technical Watch SECO Saudi Electricity Co. Saudi Electricity on Monday hit our suggested stop loss of and closed below the 10 day DEMA (13.75). The MACD and the CCI are giving a negative signal. Investors may sell the stock, and wait for our next call. MA ADEN Saudi Arabian Mining Co. MA ADEN on Monday traded above our suggested stop loss of and closed above the 10 day DEMA (24.86). The short-term Stochastic and the Williams R are giving a positive signal. Investors may buy the stock, with stop loss of 24.80, for a target of and

6 GCC Technical Watch EMAAR Emaar Properties (Dubai Financial Market) EMAAR on Monday closed above the 10 day DEMA (2.50). The MACD and the CCI are giving a negative signal. The short-term Stochastic and the Williams R are in a negative mode. Investors may sell the stock, with stop loss of 2.51, for a target of 2.45 and ARTC Arabtec Holding (Dubai Financial Market) ARTC on Monday moved away from our suggested target of 1.70 and closed above the 40 day DEMA (1.63). The MACD is giving a positive signal. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 1.65, for a target of

7 GCC Technical Watch Dana Dana Gas PJSC (Abu Dhabi Securities Market) DANA on Monday hit our suggested stop loss of 0.43, and closed below the 10 day DEMA (0.432). The RSI closed below 28. Investors may sell the stock and wait for our next call IQCD Industries of Qatar (Doha Securities Market) IQCD on Monday hit our suggested stop loss of and closed below the 10 day DEMA (134.20). The MACD is giving a negative signal. Investors may sell the stock and wait for our next call. 7

8 GCC Technical Watch KFIN Kuwait Finance House (Kuwait Stock Exchange) KFIN on Monday traded as our past analysis had suggested and closed below 880. The MACD and the CCI are giving a negative signal. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 890, for a target of 850 and

9 Corporate News & Announcements Jazan Development holding 50 of the share capital of Selonda (UK) Ltd, announced that Selonda Ltd has been placed under Administration due to irresolvable financial crisis in spite of the continuous financial support of its shareholders. (Source: Tadawul) Yamama Saudi Cement will increase its capital to SAR2bn from SAR1.35bn through issuing one bonus share for every two existing shares held. (Source: Gulfbase) 9

10 9 January 2012 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () RIBL , , BJAZ , , Saudi Investment , , Saudi Hollandi Bank , , Saudi Fransi Bank , SABB , , Arab National , , SAMBA , , Al Rajhi ,034 74, , AL Bilad , , Alinma , , , N/A CHEMANOL ,670 20, , Petrochem , N/A N/A ,056 N/A 2.1 N/A SABIC , , , SAFCO , , Industrialization , , Alujain , , N/A Nama Chemicals ,417 78, N/A N/A , N/A SIIG , , Sahara Petrochemical ,637 24, , YANSAB , ,075 N/A 2.4 N/A Sipchem ,075 20, , N/A Advanced , , Saudi Kayan ,412 58, N/A N/A ,575 N/A 1.7 N/A Petro Rabigh ,412 31, N/A N/A , N/A Arab Cement , , N/A Yamamah Cement , , Saudi Cement , , Qassim Cement , , Southern Cement , , Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 10

11 9 January 2012 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Yanbu Cement , , N/A Eastern Cement , , Tabuk Cement , , Jouf Cement ,707 26, , HCC ,561 77, N/A N/A ,236 N/A 1.7 N/A A. Othaim Market , , Mouwasat , , EXTRA , , N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SASCO , N/A Thim ar ,534 39, N/A N/A N/A Fitaihi Group ,495 92, Jarir , , Aldrees , , AlHokair , , AlKhaleej Trng , Gas&Industrialization , , Saudi Electricity ,873 25, , SAVOLA Group , , Food , , SADAFCO , , Almarai , N/A N/A , Anaam Holding , , N/A HB ,086 68, , Herfy Foods , ,491 N/A 6.2 N/A NADEC , , Qassim Agriculture ,369 59, N/A N/A , Tabuk Agriculture ,259 41, Saudi Fisheries , , N/A N/A N/A Sharqiya Dev. Co , , N/A N/A N/A Jouff Agriculture , Bishah Agriculture N/A N/A N/A 6.9 N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 11

12 9 January 2012 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Jazan Development ,677 48, N/A N/A , STC , , Mobily , , ZAIN KSA ,683 42, N/A N/A , N/A Atheeb Telecom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Almutakamela ,607 60, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tawuniya , , Malath Insurance ,878 86, MEDGULF , , N/A ALLIANZ SF , N/A N/A N/A SALAMA , Walaa Insurance ,734 34, N/A N/A N/A Arabian Shield ,277 32, N/A SABB Takaful , N/A N/A , N/A SANAD ,433 31, N/A N/A N/A SAICO , N/A N/A N/A Saudi Indian , N/A Gulf Union ,590 46, N/A N/A N/A ATC , N/A N/A N/A Al-Ahlia , N/A N/A N/A ACIG ,077 41, N/A N/A N/A AICC ,677 41, N/A N/A N/A Trade Union ,735 38, N/A Sagr Insurance ,527 37, N/A UCA ,374 44, N/A Saudi Re , , N/A N/A , N/A Bupa Arabia ,751 46, , N/A Weqaya Takaful , N/A N/A N/A Al Rajhi Takaful ,175 69, N/A N/A , N/A ACE , N/A N/A N/A 7.3 N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 12

13 9 January 2012 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () AXA-Cooperative , N/A Gulf General ,047 86, N/A N/A N/A Buruj , , N/A N/A N/A Al Alamiya ,482 64, N/A N/A N/A 5.1 N/A Solidarity ,218 73, N/A N/A ,277 N/A 2.7 N/A Wataniya , , N/A N/A N/A AMANA Insurance , N/A N/A , N/A SARCO , , , N/A Saudi Advanced , N/A N/A Al Ahsa for Dev , , SISCO ,714 23, Assir ,090 17, , Al Baha ,441 27, N/A N/A N/A Kingdom , , BCI , MA ADEN ,169 29, N/A N/A , Astra Indust , , N/A AlSorayai Group , N/A SHAKER , ,083 N/A N/A N/A Pharmaceutical , , Glass , , FIPCO , N/A Maadaniyah ,591 54, N/A N/A Saudi Chemical , , SPM , , N/A AlAbdullatif , , Saudi Export , N/A MMG ,148 27, N/A N/A , SSP , , N/A ALKHODARI , , N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 13

14 9 January 2012 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Ceramic , , Gypsum , , Cables ,834 25, , Saudi Industrial ,567 50, Amiantit ,023 16, , Pipes , , N/A N/A , Zamil Industrial , , AL Babtain , , SVCP , N/A MESC , N/A N/A Red Sea , , ASLAK , , Real Estate , , Taiba , , Makkah , , Arriyadh Development ,553 37, , N/A Emaar E. C ,849 97, N/A N/A , N/A Jabal Omar ,004 12, N/A N/A , Dar Al Arkan ,572 62, , N/A KEC , , N/A N/A , Mubarrad , N/A N/A , Shipping ,293 28, SAPTCO , , Budget Saudi , Tihama , , SRMG , , SPPC ,465 32, , Hotels , N/A Shams ,821 86, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 14

15 Definition - Technical Indicators Candlestick Patterns, Doji DojiI is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value indicates bearish momentum. Hammer A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend. Inverse-black-hammer: a bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day. Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average) Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side. DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A crossover of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside for a short time. MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. RSI - Relative Strength Index When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or sttock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an overbought level. ROC When the ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock. Stochastic Oscillators When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. Williams R When Williams R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds. There are two methods of interpreting the CCI: 1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price. 2. As an overbought/oversold indicator The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci Levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and

16 Whipsaw A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name. Gravestone Doji In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal. Inside Bar An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts. Big Bar A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern. Higher High This implies that today s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Lower High This implies that today s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Higher Low This implies that today s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Lower Low This implies that today s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Triangle This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line) or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line). Standard Error Channel Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it depends on the traders' common opinion. s trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes. Long Headed Doji Pattern This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels. 16

17 Double Tops / Double Bottoms A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is important for trading double tops or double bottoms. Three White Soldiers Formation The Three White Soldiers formation indicates a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed higher than the previous day, with each session's open occurring within the body of the previous candle. Bullish Harami Cross Pattern This is a Doji contained within a large black body. This is a bottom reversal signal. 17

18 Contact Us Dr. Saleh Alsuhaibani Head of Research Tel : alsuhaibanis@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital Research Department P.O Box 5561 Riyadh Saudi Arabia Tel : Fax : research@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, No /37. Disclaimer This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital ( Al Rajhi Capital ) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi Capital s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments, including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital, together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained in this research document. This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 18