Saudi Stock Market Report

Transcription

1 Market Snapshots TASI Intra-day Movement Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Market Summary Close Value Traded 12,188,079, Volume 541,795,243 Trades 248,601 Symbols Traded 149 Market Breadth 45:89 Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Indices Summary Index Close MTD YTD Market Commentary Tadawul gains for the seventh straight day The Saudi bourse continued its winning streak for the seventh straight day with the Tadawul All Shares Index on Sunday closing up 0.2, at 7, The gains were primarily led by the banks and also by telecoms, select Cement and real estate stocks while profit taking in the index heavy petrochemicals restricted the market gains. The large-cap lenders such as Al Rajhi, SAMBA and Saudi Fransi climbed 1.0, 1.5 and 1.1 respectively whilst Saudi Investment and Arab National advanced 2.8 and 2.0 respectively. Bank Al Bilad was the top gainer of the day and surged 5.4. The petrochemicals suffered profit taking with SABIC declining by 0.7 to SAR Nama Chemicals was the top loser in the sector and shed 4.4. Among the telcos, Zain KSA, Mobily and Almutakamela edged up by 4.85, 4.7 and 0.4 respectively whilst the state-controlled STC dropped 0.3. Qassim Cement, Arriyadh Development and Real Estate were some of the significant winners of the day and jumped 4.0, 3.7 and 2.6 respectively. MMG was the top loser of the session and plunged Tadawul All Share Index 7, Banks & Financial Services 16, Petrochemical Industries 6, Cement 6, Retail 6, Energy & Utilities 5, Agriculture & Food Ind. 6, Telecom & IT 1, Insurance Multi-Investment 3, Industrial Investment 6, Building & Construction 3, Real Estate Development 3, Transport 3, Media and Publishing 2, Hotel & Tourism 6, Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Close Volume ( 000) GCC markets gain led by Dubai The GCC markets, with the exception of Bahrain, started the weekly trading with handsome gains. The Dubai Market Index rallied 2.7 to 1,676.49, a new ten-month high amid rock steady investors sentiment due to local corporate earnings and dividends. Strong global cues bolstered investors sentiment. Newsmakers Saudi Arabia increased oil exports and the U.S. is considering tapping into the nation s strategic oil reserves, in a bid to tame rising oil prices. The Kingdom exports surged to just over 9mn bpd in the last week, compared to an average of about 7.5mn for January, three industry sources said. (Agencies) Saudi Market Outlook The overall sentiment remains positive but the market might see selective profit taking. Regional Market Statistics Turnover (US$ 000) No. of Trades MTD YTD Abu Dhabi SM 2, ,142 57,868 2, Dubai FM 1, , ,874 7, Kuwait SE 6, , ,279 6, Doha SM 8, ,223 93,308 4, Muscat SM 5, ,812 9,434 1, Bahrain SE 1, Source: Official websites of the Regional Stock Exchanges 1

2 Market Movers & Shakers Top Gainers Closing Volume (mn) Top Losers Closing Volume (mn) AL Bilad AlSorayai Group Al-Ahlia ZAIN KSA Almutakamela MMG SASCO Saudi Indian Nama Chemicals Gulf General Volume Leaders Value Leaders Closing Volume (mn) Closing Value (SAR mn) ZAIN KSA Alinma Dar Al Arkan Emaar E.C MMG Week New High / Low Closing New High BJAZ AL Bilad Alinma Qassim Cement SASCO Assir Sector Turnover (SAR mn) New Low SABIC ZAIN KSA Alinma MMG Solidarity Stocks consistently gaining / losing over last three trading sessions (Top 6) Current 3 Days 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn) Almutakamela Al-Ahlia Weqaya Takaful ASLAK Qassim Agriculture Tabuk Cement Sector Volume (mn) , , Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries Telecom. & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism Source: Data pertaining to all the tables and charts in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website

3 Saudi Technical Watch R: Resistance S: Support PP: Pivot Point TASI 7, , , , , The TASI on Sunday found support at our suggested second level of 7,023 and closed at our suggested resistance level of 7,088. The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the short-term Stochastic, the CCI and the RSI are in an overbought zone. The market is likely to take support at 7,074, 7,023 and 6,097 whilst it may see resistance at 7,091, 7,120 and 7,164. Tadawul All Shares Index SABIC Saudi Basic Industries Corp. SABIC on Sunday traded above our suggested stop loss of and closed above the 10 day DEMA (100.00). The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the RSI and the CCI are in an overbought zone. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 99.50, for a target of and

4 Saudi Technical Watch STC Saudi Telecom Co. STC on Sunday traded above our suggested stop loss of and found support at the 10 day DEMA (37.55). The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 37.40, for a target of Al Rajhi Al Rajhi on Sunday hit our suggested first target of but closed below it. The stock closed above the 10 day DEMA (76.33). The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 76.30, for a target of and Al Rajhi Bank 4

5 Saudi Technical Watch SECO Saudi Electricity Co. Saudi Electricity on Sunday touched an intra-day low of 14.15, which was our suggested stop loss. The stock formed a Doji pattern. The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may avoid the stock for the time being and wait for our next call. MA ADEN MA ADEN closed marginally below our suggested target of The stock closed above the 10 day DEMA (30.76) and formed a Doji pattern. The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 30.60, for a target of and Saudi Arabian Mining Co. 5

6 GCC Technical Watch EMAAR EMAAR on Sunday hit our suggested first target of 3.12 and edged nearer our suggested second target of The stock is taking support at the 10 day DEMA (3.09). The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode whilst the RSI is in an overbought zone. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 3.11, for a target of 3.19 and Emaar Properties (Dubai Financial Market) ARTC Arabtec Holding (Dubai Financial Market) ARTC on Sunday closed above the 10 day DEMA (3.10). The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the RSI is in an overbought zone. Investors may avoid the stock for the time being and wait for our next call. 6

7 GCC Technical Watch Dana Dana Gas PJSC (Abu Dhabi Securities Market) DANA on Sunday hit our suggested first target of 0.51 and closed above the 10 day DEMA (0.50) and the 125 day SMA (0.49). The MACD is in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 0.48, for a target of 0.54 and IQCD Industries of Qatar (Doha Securities Market) IQCD on Sunday hit our suggested target of but closed marginally below it. The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode whilst the RSI is in an overbought zone. Investors may book complete profits at the current level and wait for our next call. 7

8 GCC Technical Watch KFIN Kuwait Finance House (Kuwait Stock Exchange) KFIN on Sunday closed marginally above the 20 day DEMA (829). The short-term Stochastic and the Williams R are giving a positive signal whilst the MACD is in a negative mode. Investors may buy the stock only above 840, with a stop loss of 820, for a target of

9 Corporate News & Announcements STC Group announced co-signing a partnership agreement with Djibouti Telecom in order to link with central, southern and eastern African states as well as European and the rest of the world, in addition to take advantage of directly rapid speed exchange of data between the Kingdom, Djibouti and other African countries. (Source: Saudi Gazette) 9

10 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () RIBL , , BJAZ ,302 54, , Saudi Investment ,026 19, , Saudi Hollandi Bank , , Saudi Fransi Bank , , SABB , , Arab National , , SAMBA , , Al Rajhi , , , AL Bilad ,023 54, , Alinma , , , N/A CHEMANOL , , , Petrochem ,108 46, N/A N/A ,488 N/A 2.2 N/A SABIC , , , SAFCO , , Industrialization , , Alujain , , N/A N/A , N/A Nama Chemicals , , N/A N/A , N/A SIIG ,181 48, , Sahara Petrochemical , , , YANSAB , ,394 N/A 2.8 N/A Sipchem ,422 53, , N/A Advanced ,136 31, , Saudi Kayan , , N/A N/A ,675 N/A 1.6 N/A Petro Rabigh ,604 62, N/A N/A , N/A Arab Cement , , N/A Yamamah Cement , , Saudi Cement , , Qassim Cement , , Southern Cement , , Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 10

11 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Yanbu Cement , , N/A Eastern Cement , , Tabuk Cement , , Jouf Cement , , , HCC ,986 55, N/A N/A ,386 N/A 1.8 N/A A. Othaim Market , , Mouwasat , , EXTRA , N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SASCO , , , N/A Thim ar , , N/A Fitaihi Group ,319 60, N/A N/A Jarir , , Aldrees , , AlHokair , , AlKhaleej Trng , Gas&Industrialization , , Saudi Electricity ,922 84, , SAVOLA Group , , Food , , SADAFCO , , Almarai , , Anaam Holding ,026 70, N/A HB , , Herfy Foods , ,457 N/A 6.2 N/A NADEC ,296 40, , Qassim Agriculture ,170 34, N/A N/A , Tabuk Agriculture ,131 78, Saudi Fisheries , , N/A N/A N/A Sharqiya Dev. Co ,255 70, N/A N/A N/A Jouff Agriculture , Bishah Agriculture N/A N/A N/A 6.9 N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 11

12 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Jazan Development ,309 79, N/A N/A , STC , , Mobily ,545 92, , ZAIN KSA , , N/A N/A , N/A Atheeb Telecom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Almutakamela , , N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tawuniya , , Malath Insurance ,528 82, MEDGULF , , N/A ALLIANZ SF , , N/A N/A , N/A SALAMA , N/A N/A Walaa Insurance ,464 92, N/A N/A N/A Arabian Shield , N/A SABB Takaful , , N/A N/A , N/A SANAD , , N/A N/A N/A SAICO ,982 99, N/A N/A N/A Saudi Indian , , N/A N/A N/A Gulf Union ,759 66, N/A N/A N/A ATC ,165 88, N/A N/A N/A Al-Ahlia , , N/A N/A N/A ACIG , , N/A N/A N/A AICC ,437 43, N/A Trade Union ,431 47, N/A Sagr Insurance ,502 53, N/A UCA , N/A Saudi Re , , N/A N/A , N/A Bupa Arabia , , , N/A Weqaya Takaful , , N/A N/A N/A Al Rajhi Takaful ,436 91, N/A N/A , N/A ACE ,295 96, N/A N/A N/A 8.7 N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 12

13 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () AXA-Cooperative ,536 65, N/A N/A N/A Gulf General , , N/A N/A N/A Buruj ,176 81, N/A N/A N/A Al Alamiya , , N/A N/A ,195 N/A 7.1 N/A Solidarity , , N/A N/A ,687 N/A 3.5 N/A Wataniya , , N/A N/A , N/A AMANA Insurance , , N/A N/A , N/A SARCO , , N/A Saudi Advanced ,742 35, Al Ahsa for Dev ,304 74, N/A N/A , SISCO , , N/A N/A , Assir ,402 73, , Al Baha ,567 37, N/A N/A N/A Kingdom ,127 12, , TAKWEEN ,071 54, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A BCI , MA ADEN ,490 77, , Astra Indust , , N/A AlSorayai Group , , N/A SHAKER , ,310 N/A N/A N/A Pharmaceutical , , Glass ,398 49, , FIPCO ,334 56, N/A Maadaniyah ,406 51, N/A N/A Saudi Chemical , , SPM , , N/A AlAbdullatif , , Saudi Export ,414 58, N/A MMG , , N/A N/A , SSP , , N/A ALKHODARI , , N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 13

14 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Ceramic , , Gypsum , , Cables , , N/A N/A , Saudi Industrial ,655 93, , Amiantit , , , Pipes , N/A N/A , Zamil Industrial , , AL Babtain , , SVCP , N/A MESC ,028 57, N/A N/A Red Sea , , ASLAK , , Real Estate ,016 55, , Taiba , , Makkah , , Arriyadh Development ,460 86, , N/A Emaar E. C , , , N/A Jabal Omar ,993 77, N/A N/A , Dar Al Arkan , , , N/A KEC , , N/A N/A , Mubarrad , N/A N/A , Shipping ,863 88, SAPTCO , , Budget Saudi , Tihama ,362 82, N/A N/A , SRMG ,460 39, , SPPC , , Hotels , N/A Shams ,070 83, N/A N/A ,326 N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 14

15 Definition - Technical Indicators Candlestick Patterns, Doji DojiI is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value indicates bearish momentum. Hammer A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend. Inverse-black-hammer: a bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day. Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average) Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side. DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A crossover of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside for a short time. MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. RSI - Relative Strength Index When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or sttock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an overbought level. ROC When the ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock. Stochastic Oscillators When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. Williams R When Williams R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds. There are two methods of interpreting the CCI: 1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price. 2. As an overbought/oversold indicator The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci Levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and

16 Whipsaw A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name. Gravestone Doji In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal. Inside Bar An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts. Big Bar A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern. Higher High This implies that today s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Lower High This implies that today s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Higher Low This implies that today s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Lower Low This implies that today s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Triangle This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line) or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line). Standard Error Channel Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it depends on the traders' common opinion. s trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes. Long Headed Doji Pattern This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels. 16

17 Double Tops / Double Bottoms A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is important for trading double tops or double bottoms. Three White Soldiers Formation The Three White Soldiers formation indicates a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed higher than the previous day, with each session's open occurring within the body of the previous candle. Bullish Harami Cross Pattern This is a Doji contained within a large black body. This is a bottom reversal signal. 17

18 Contact Us Dr. Saleh Alsuhaibani Head of Research Tel : alsuhaibanis@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital Research Department P.O Box 5561 Riyadh Saudi Arabia Tel : Fax : research@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, No /37. Disclaimer This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital ( Al Rajhi Capital ) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi Capital s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments, including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital, together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained in this research document. This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 18