Saudi Stock Market Report

Transcription

1 Market Snapshots TASI Intra-day Movement Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Market Summary Close Value Traded 10,362,300, Volume 445,199,299 Trades 213,350 Symbols Traded 149 Market Breadth 86:46 Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Indices Summary Index Close MTD YTD Tadawul All Share Index 6, Banks & Financial Services 15, Petrochemical Industries 6, Cement 5, Retail 6, Energy & Utilities 5, Agriculture & Food Ind. 6, Telecom & IT 1, Insurance Multi-Investment 3, Industrial Investment 5, Building & Construction 3, Real Estate Development 3, Transport 3, Media and Publishing 2, Hotel & Tourism 7, Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Market Commentary Tadawul retails its positive momentum The Saudi bourse retained its positive momentum with the Tadawul All Shares Index on Sunday moving up by 0.6 to 6, amid a swelled up bourse turnover of SAR10.36bn. Sunday s markets gains were broad based, albeit led by the Petrochemical Sector. The exchange bellwether SABIC advanced by 0.5 to SAR95. The midcap CHEMANOL was the star performer of the day and rallied 9.9. Nama Chemicals, SIIG and Advanced gained over 2. Al Rajhi closed unchanged whilst other large-cap banks SAMBA and Riyad Bank climbed 0.4 and 0.2 respectively. Construction related sectors such as the Cement, the Building & Construction and the Real Estate Sectors enjoyed substantial buying. Tabuk Cement and Yanbu Cement were the significant winners in the Cement Sector and rose 2.8 and 1.9 respectively. Real Estate companies such as Real Estate and Arriyadh Development jumped 6.0 and 4.6 respectively whilst Jabal Omar and Makkah rose 3.8 and 3.2 respectively. Among the state-controlled large-caps, STC and Ma aden advanced 1.7 and 2.5 respectively, whilst Saudi Electricity closed unchanged. The Insurance stocks continued their upward trajectory. The tourism company SHAMS was the top gainer of the session and closed limit up, at 10. GCC bourses gain; Dubai rallies The GCC bourses started the weekly trading on a positive note on strong global cues with the Dubai Market Index rallying 3.6 amid strong investor confidence that debt-ridden local companies will be able to honor payment obligations without government support. Analyst-beating quarterly earnings bolstered sentiment. The Dubai bourse is the best performing GCC market in 2012 with a YTD of 15.6, followed by the Saudi market with a YTD of 7.0. Newsmakers Saudi Aramco Asia Co. Ltd. (SAAC), a subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Indonesia's PERTAMINA to evaluate the economic feasibility of building an integrated refining and petrochemical project in Indonesia. (Arab News) Saudi Market Outlook The market outlook is mixed and selected profit taking may not be ruled out. Index Close Volume ( 000) Regional Market Statistics Turnover (US$ 000) No. of Trades MTD YTD Abu Dhabi SM 2, ,095 43,526 1, Dubai FM 1, , ,110 5, Kuwait SE 6, , ,633 8, Doha SM 8, ,319 81,521 2, Muscat SM 5, ,414 14, Bahrain SE 1, , Source: Official websites of the Regional Stock Exchanges 1

2 Market Movers & Shakers Top Gainers Closing Volume (mn) Top Losers Closing Volume (mn) Shams CHEMANOL ALLIANZ SF Saudi Indian Saudi Export Weqaya Takaful U C A Sharqiya Dev Co Al Rajhi Takaful Gas&Industrialization Volume Leaders Value Leaders Closing Volume (mn) Closing Value (SAR mn) Nama Chemicals Alinma ZAIN KSA Dar Al Arkan CHEMANOL Week New High / Low Closing New High Arab Cement Food MEDGULF Saudi Advanced AlSorayai Group Saudi Industrial Sector Turnover (SAR mn) New Low SABIC Nama Chemicals Solidarity SABB Takaful CHEMANOL Stocks consistently gaining / losing over last three trading sessions (Top 6) Current 3 Days 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn) ALLIANZ SF Shams Sagr Insurance Glass Yanbu Cement Thim'ar Sector Volume (mn) , , Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries Telecom. & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism Source: Data pertaining to all the tables and charts in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 2

3 Saudi Technical Watch R: Resistance S: Support PP: Pivot Point TASI 6, , , , , The TASI on Sunday took support at the 20 day DEMA (6,853) and closed at the 10 day DEMA (6,869). The RSI, the Stochastics and the Williams R are in an overbought zone whilst the MACD and the CCI are still in a positive mode. The Index may take support at 6,853, 6,836 and 6,808 whilst it may face resistance at 6,886, 6,914 and 6,943. Tadawul All Shares Index SABIC Saudi Basic Industries Corp. SABIC on Sunday hit our suggested stop loss of and closed at the 10 day DEMA (95.00). The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the CCI is giving a negative signal. Investors may avoid the stock for today and wait for our next call. 3

4 Saudi Technical Watch STC Saudi Telecom Co. STC on Sunday hit both our suggested targets of and and closed above the 10 day DEMA (36.53). The MACD and the CCI are giving a positive signal. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 36.50, for a target of and Al Rajhi Al Rajhi Bank Al Rajhi on Sunday traded below our suggested stop loss of and formed a Doji pattern. The 10 day DEMA (73.60) is acting as resistance. The MACD and the CCI are in a negative mode. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 73.70, for a target of and

5 Saudi Technical Watch SECO Saudi Electricity Co. Saudi Electricity on Sunday took support at the 40 day DEMA (14.00) and formed a Doji pattern. The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 13.95, for a target of and MA ADEN Saudi Arabian Mining Co. MA ADEN on Sunday hit our suggested stop loss of and closed above the 20 day DEMA (28.98). The MACD is in a negative mode. Risk takers may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 28.60, for a target of and

6 GCC Technical Watch EMAAR EMAAR on Sunday opened above our suggested stop loss of 2.89 and closed above the 10 day DEMA (2.95). The MACD and the CCI oscillator are giving a positive signal whilst the Stochastics and the Williams R are in a negative mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 2.94, for a target of Emaar Properties (Dubai Financial Market) ARTC ARTC is facing resistance at the 10 day DEMA (3.01) whilst the 20 day DEMA (2.89) is acting as support. The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the RSI, the short-term Stochastic and the Williams R are in an overbought zone. Investors may sell the stock only below 2.89, with a stop loss of 2.92, for a target of Arabtec Holding (Dubai Financial Market) 6

7 GCC Technical Watch Dana DANA on Sunday hit our suggested first target of 0.47 and was marginally away from our suggested second target of The 125 day SMA (0.495) is acting as resistance. The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 0.46, for a target of 0.50 and Dana Gas PJSC (Abu Dhabi Securities Market) IQCD Industries of Qatar (Doha Securities Market) IQCD on Sunday closed at our suggested stop loss of The stock is still trading below the 10 day DEMA (133.60). The CCI is in a negative mode. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of , for a target of and

8 GCC Technical Watch KFIN Our buy call on KFIN was triggered yesterday as the stock moved above the 40 day DEMA (847). The 10 day DEMA (838) is acting as support. The shortterm Stochastic and the Williams R are in a positive mode. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 830, for a target of 880. Kuwait Finance House (Kuwait Stock Exchange) 8

9 Corporate News & Announcements The BOD of SPIMACO recommended the distribution of a yearly dividend of SAR2 per share for (Source: Tadawul) Saudi Electricity on Saturday signed an SR480 million contract to establish a transformer in the Western Province as part of its efforts to meet the growing demand for electricity. (Source: Arab News) Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co. plans to repay about SAR5bn of debt this year as the developer sells land to build its cash holdings, the chief financial officer said. (Source: Bloomberg) 9

10 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () RIBL , , BJAZ , , Saudi Investment , , Saudi Hollandi Bank , , Saudi Fransi Bank , , SABB , , Arab National , , SAMBA , , Al Rajhi ,191 87, , AL Bilad , , Alinma , , , N/A CHEMANOL , , , Petrochem ,429 51, N/A N/A ,272 N/A 2.2 N/A SABIC , , , SAFCO , , Industrialization , , Alujain ,333 82, N/A N/A , N/A Nama Chemicals , , N/A N/A , N/A SIIG ,674 56, , Sahara Petrochemical ,873 93, , YANSAB , ,494 N/A 2.7 N/A Sipchem ,506 31, , N/A Advanced ,241 71, , Saudi Kayan , , N/A N/A ,150 N/A 1.6 N/A Petro Rabigh ,753 63, N/A N/A , N/A Arab Cement , , N/A Yamamah Cement , , Saudi Cement , , Qassim Cement , , Southern Cement , , Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 10

11 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Yanbu Cement , , N/A Eastern Cement , , Tabuk Cement , , Jouf Cement ,195 53, , HCC ,231 22, N/A N/A ,353 N/A 1.8 N/A A. Othaim Market , , Mouwasat , , EXTRA , N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SASCO ,432 27, N/A Thim ar , , N/A Fitaihi Group ,688 97, N/A N/A Jarir , , Aldrees , , AlHokair , , AlKhaleej Trng , Gas&Industrialization ,513 33, , Saudi Electricity ,007 98, , SAVOLA Group , , Food , , SADAFCO , , Almarai , , Anaam Holding , N/A HB , , Herfy Foods , ,484 N/A 6.2 N/A NADEC ,139 35, , Qassim Agriculture ,717 82, N/A N/A , Tabuk Agriculture , , Saudi Fisheries , , N/A N/A N/A Sharqiya Dev. Co ,080 62, N/A N/A N/A Jouff Agriculture , Bishah Agriculture N/A N/A N/A 6.9 N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 11

12 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Jazan Development , , N/A N/A , STC ,736 63, , Mobily , , ZAIN KSA , , N/A N/A , N/A Atheeb Telecom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Almutakamela ,579 35, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tawuniya , , Malath Insurance ,580 57, MEDGULF , , N/A ALLIANZ SF , N/A N/A , N/A SALAMA , N/A N/A Walaa Insurance ,649 41, N/A N/A N/A Arabian Shield , N/A SABB Takaful , , N/A N/A , N/A SANAD ,331 37, N/A N/A N/A SAICO ,291 60, N/A N/A N/A Saudi Indian ,336 66, N/A N/A N/A Gulf Union ,579 59, N/A N/A N/A ATC ,152 87, N/A N/A N/A Al-Ahlia ,522 74, N/A N/A N/A ACIG ,537 66, N/A N/A N/A AICC ,216 36, N/A Trade Union ,758 82, N/A Sagr Insurance , , N/A UCA ,151 42, N/A Saudi Re ,152 72, N/A N/A , N/A Bupa Arabia ,417 40, , N/A Weqaya Takaful , , N/A N/A N/A Al Rajhi Takaful ,361 84, N/A N/A , N/A ACE , N/A N/A N/A 7.6 N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 12

13 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () AXA-Cooperative , , N/A N/A N/A Gulf General ,187 53, N/A N/A N/A Buruj , N/A N/A N/A Al Alamiya , , N/A N/A ,115 N/A 6.6 N/A Solidarity , , N/A N/A ,554 N/A 3.3 N/A Wataniya , N/A AMANA Insurance , , N/A N/A , N/A SARCO , N/A N/A , N/A Saudi Advanced , , Al Ahsa for Dev ,670 60, N/A N/A , SISCO , , N/A N/A , Assir , , , Al Baha , , N/A N/A N/A Kingdom ,235 13, , TAKWEEN , N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A BCI , MA ADEN , , , Astra Indust , , N/A AlSorayai Group , , N/A SHAKER , ,258 N/A N/A N/A Pharmaceutical , , Glass , , FIPCO ,068 44, N/A Maadaniyah ,210 41, N/A N/A Saudi Chemical , , SPM , , N/A AlAbdullatif , , Saudi Export , , N/A MMG , , N/A N/A , SSP ,460 38, , N/A ALKHODARI , , N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 13

14 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Ceramic , , Gypsum , , Cables ,155 71, N/A N/A , Saudi Industrial , , Amiantit ,184 60, , Pipes , N/A N/A , Zamil Industrial , , AL Babtain ,968 52, , SVCP , N/A MESC ,747 72, N/A N/A Red Sea , , ASLAK , , Real Estate ,878 78, , Taiba , , Makkah , , Arriyadh Development , , , N/A Emaar E. C , , , N/A Jabal Omar , , N/A N/A , Dar Al Arkan , , , N/A KEC ,698 96, N/A N/A , Mubarrad , N/A N/A , Shipping ,547 92, SAPTCO , , Budget Saudi , Tihama , N/A N/A , SRMG ,009 24, , SPPC , , Hotels , N/A Shams , , N/A N/A ,430 N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 14

15 Definition - Technical Indicators Candlestick Patterns, Doji DojiI is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value indicates bearish momentum. Hammer A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend. Inverse-black-hammer: a bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day. Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average) Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side. DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A crossover of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside for a short time. MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. RSI - Relative Strength Index When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or sttock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an overbought level. ROC When the ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock. Stochastic Oscillators When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. Williams R When Williams R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds. There are two methods of interpreting the CCI: 1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price. 2. As an overbought/oversold indicator The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci Levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and

16 Whipsaw A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name. Gravestone Doji In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal. Inside Bar An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts. Big Bar A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern. Higher High This implies that today s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Lower High This implies that today s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Higher Low This implies that today s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Lower Low This implies that today s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Triangle This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line) or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line). Standard Error Channel Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it depends on the traders' common opinion. s trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes. Long Headed Doji Pattern This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels. 16

17 Double Tops / Double Bottoms A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is important for trading double tops or double bottoms. Three White Soldiers Formation The Three White Soldiers formation indicates a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed higher than the previous day, with each session's open occurring within the body of the previous candle. Bullish Harami Cross Pattern This is a Doji contained within a large black body. This is a bottom reversal signal. 17

18 Contact Us Dr. Saleh Alsuhaibani Head of Research Tel : alsuhaibanis@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital Research Department P.O Box 5561 Riyadh Saudi Arabia Tel : Fax : research@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, No /37. Disclaimer This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital ( Al Rajhi Capital ) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi Capital s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments, including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital, together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained in this research document. This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 18