SAIBOR eases marginally. Crude oil slips
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1 Research Department ARC Research Team Tel , Saudi Arabian Economy - Liquidity easing Saudi Arabian economy Liquidity improving owing to the government initiatives such as the successful foray into international bond market. Moreover, SAMA reduced the size of weekly issuance of Treasury bills and also introduced 90-day repos. As a result the SAIBOR has declined lately. The IMF cut the Kingdom s 2016 non-oil GDP forecast growth to 0.3%, as against 1.6% predicted in May 2016, as government spending cuts negatively impacted business confidence. OPEC raised the 2016 global oil demand forecast to 1.24 mbpd, from 1.23 mbpd, due to higher demand in Asia. Brent crude December futures declined 3.8% m-o-m in October 2016 owing to uncertainty regarding the deal among oil producers to cut crude oil production. Bank claims on the private sector grew by 7.0% y-o-y in September, as against a 7.5% y-o-y rise in August. Meanwhile, deposits dropped at a faster pace in September (-4.3% y-o-y versus -2.8% in August), pushing the loan-to-deposit ratio beyond the 90% mark for the fourth consecutive month. On the equity front, TASI advanced 6.9% m-o-m in October, as compared to a 7.5% m-o-m drop in September Kingdom s International Bond Sale: Saudi Arabia, in its first ever international bond sale, raised US$17.5bn, surpassing Argentina s bond sale worth US$16.5bn this year. The sale received investor orders around four times the bond size, indicating investors confidence in the Kingdom s ability to cope with low oil prices. The bond sale is expected to serve as a launch pad for further issuances by the government and large Saudi Arabian companies with the establishment of a sovereign yield curve. The Kingdom sold bonds with three maturities US$5.5bn 5- year bonds, US$5.5bn 10-year bonds and US$6.5bn 30-year bonds, with a premium of 135bps, 165bps and 210bps, respectively above equivalent US Treasury bonds. A major part of the bonds was sold outside the Middle Eastern region, unlike Qatar s bond sale early this year. The bond sale is expected to help the Kingdom to manage the expected budget deficit as oil prices continue to remain low. The successful issuance is also expected to ease the pressure on Kingdom s foreign reserve assets. Meanwhile, Fitch has assigned AA- rating to the Kingdom s international bond. Crude price outlook: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its October 2016 report, estimated Brent crude oil prices to average around US$43/barrel in 2016 and US$51/barrel in Table 1 Key macro indicators Variable Sep-16 Aug Inflation Rate (2007=100) 3.0% 3.3% 2.2% 2.7% Average Oil Price (Arab Light) (US$/Barrel) Money Supply (M3) -4.0% -2.5% 2.6% 11.9% Total Banking Sector Claims Interbank Interest Rate (3 Month) (BP) Repo Rate (BP) Reverse Repo Rate (BP) Source: SAMA, * Provisional Q2 2016* Q1 2016* 2015* 2014* GDP Rate at Constant Prices (2010=100) 1.4% 1.5% 3.5% 3.6% Current Account to GDP Ratio (current prices) -5.3% -12.9% -8.3% 9.8% Total Imports (fob) to GDP Ratio (current prices) 19.7% 22.6% 24.0% 21.0% Non-oil Exports to GDP Ratio (current prices) 7.1% 7.3% 7.6% 7.6% Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. Al Rajhi Capital (Al Rajhi) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. Al Rajhi research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. Al Rajhi research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. 1
2 The 90-day SAIBOR dropped 1.5bps in October to end at 2.34% Crude oil prices declined in October owing to uncertainty regarding the deal to cut output SAIBOR eases marginally The Saudi Arabia Interbank Offered Rate (SAIBOR) climbed to the highest level since January 2009 in the mid of October 2016 on account of a continued rise in issuance of domestic bonds by the government to finance its budget deficit. However, the SAIBOR dropped towards the end of October, owing to the steps taken by the government to decrease upward pressure on the rates. The Kingdom issued international bonds worth US$17.5bn thereby reducing the need for issuing domestic bonds. Further, the Kingdom s central bank, the SAMA, has decided to introduce 90-day repurchase agreements (repos), along with the present 1-day, 7-day and 28-day repos, to increase liquidity and reduce borrowing costs. It is also committed to lower the weekly issues of Treasury bills from SAR9bn to SAR3bn, to improve monetary conditions on the domestic front. Crude oil slips Crude oil prices (Brent December futures contract) dropped 3.8% m-o-m in October as compared to a 6.2% m-o-m rise in September The oil prices declined as Iraq expressed its unwillingness to participate in the OPEC member states deal to cut production, making it the fourth nation, others being Iran, Nigeria and Libya, to be exempt from these cuts. Further, non-opec members declined a commitment to cut or freeze their outputs until an agreement among the OPEC members was reached. However, the final agreement would be ratified in the OPEC meeting at the end of November. Meanwhile the US oil rig count increased from 425 as at end of September to 441 as at the end of October. WTI (December futures contract) and Arab light logged a monthly fall of 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively, in October. The Kingdom s crude oil production rose by 2.7% y-o-y in September 2016, its fastest rate since February 2016, as against a rise of 1.3% y-o-y in August Figure 1 Saudi crude oil production trend Figure 2 Crude oil prices trend % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital Saudi Crude oil production growth Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital Brent WTI Arab Light Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 2
3 Saudi Arabia s non-oil exports and nonoil imports dropped further in August 2016, although at a slower pace Non-oil foreign trade The Kingdom s non-oil exports fell, albeit at a slower pace, by 11.1% y-o-y in August 2016 versus a fall of 27.2% y-o-y and y-o-y in July and June, respectively. The slower pace of decline was owing to gains in exports of plastic and rubber (+6.2% y-oy), which constituted 35.4% of the total exports, which was offset by a decline in chemical products (-31.3% y-o-y), which account for 25.4% of the total exports. Meanwhile, the country s non-oil imports dropped 29.5% y-o-y in August from a 32.7% annual decrease in July The non-oil imports were dragged down, owing to a fall in machinery & electrical (-34.1% y-o-y) and transport equipment (-25.9% y- o-y), which together form 42.0% of the total non-oil imports. Meanwhile, the UAE was the top non-oil export destination (14.3% of the total exports), while China was the top destination for non-oil imports (15.9% of the total imports). Table 2 Non-Oil Exports Commodities (SAR mn) Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 % y-o-y % m-o-m Plastics & Rubbers 4,393 4,445 5, % 15.3% Chemical Products 4,113 3,338 3, % 10.2% Ordinary Metals 1, , % 24.5% Transport Equipments 1, , % 66.5% Others 3,297 2,384 3, % 39.9% Total 14,261 11,819 14, % 22.4% Figure 3 Components of non-oil exports Figure 4 Export Destinations 8.7% 23.0% 35.4% 14.3% 7.6% 5.5% 8.5% 65.7% 5.9% 25.4% Plastics & Rubbers Chemical Products Ordinary Metals Transport Equipments Others China UAE Singapore India Others Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 3
4 Table 3 Non-Oil Imports Commodities (SAR mn) Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 % y-o-y % m-o-m Machinery & Electricals 10,448 8,275 10, % 23.2% Transport Equipments 9,104 5,157 7, % 43.0% Ordinary Metals 4,022 3,529 4, % 16.7% Chemical Products 4,086 3,011 4, % 34.1% Others 15,346 13,508 16, % 19.0% Total 43,006 33,480 41, % 24.8% Figure 5 Components of non-oil imports Figure 6 Source countries 15.9% 24.4% 38.4% 14.2% 58.2% 17.6% 6.0% 9.7% 9.9% 5.8% Machinery & Electricals Transport Equipments Ordinary Metals Chemical Products Others China USA Germany Japan Others Figure 7 Non-oil export trend (y-o-y) Figure 8 Non-oil import trend (y-o-y) Non-oil Export Non-oil Import Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 4
5 Money supply (M3) in September 2016 rose on a monthly basis Monetary and credit indicators Money supply The broader money supply (M3) declined at a faster pace of 4.0% y-o-y in September 2016 as compared to a fall of 2.5% y-o-y in August 2016 to stand at SAR1,756bn. The drop can be attributed to a yearly fall in demand deposits. Meanwhile, M3 edged up 0.2% in September 2016 on a monthly basis, against a fall of 0.1% m-o-m in August Figure 9 Money supply growth (y-o-y) 25.0% % 5.0% -5.0% % Figure 10 Deposits break-up 1,200 1, M1 M2 M3 Time and Saving Deposits Demand Deposits The loan-to-deposit ratio crossed the 90% mark for the fourth straight month in September Credit and deposit growth Total credit growth (banks claim on the private sector) rose by 7.0% y-o-y in September 2016, edged down from the yearly rise of 7.5% in August. Meanwhile, deposits dropped at a faster rate of 4.3% y-o-y in September 2016 against the fall of 2.8% y-o-y in August. Credit allocated to the private sector inched down 0.1% in September 2016 on a monthly basis, after a brief rise of 0.2% m-o-m in August, whereas deposits witnessed a rise (0.2%) in September, after posting a steady reading of 0.o% m-o-m in the previous month. The loan-to-deposit ratio edged down to 90.3% in September 2016, versus the reading of 90.8% in August. Figure 11 Credit and deposit growth Figure 12 Loans to deposits % 5.0% -5.0% - 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% Deposits Credit Loans to Deposit ratio Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 5
6 Kingdom s foreign reserve assets further dropped in September 2016 Foreign reserve assets Foreign reserve assets fell by 15.2% y-o-y in September 2016, against a drop of 15.1% y-o-y in August, to stand at SAR2,081bn (~US$554.5bn). The Kingdom has been tapping its foreign reserves to plug budget deficit owing to low oil prices. Foreign reserves dropped at a fast pace, by 1.3% in September (-0.2% in August) on a monthly basis, while foreign deposits abroad fell 2.2% m-o-m in September (-3.7% m-o-m in August). Meanwhile, investments in foreign securities, too, registered a monthly drop of 0.9% in September 2016 after posting gains for two consecutive months (+1.5% m- o-m in August). Figure 13 Foreign reserves Figure 14 Major components of foreign assets 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 5.0% -5.0% % -2 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Foreign Reserves Assets Foreign Currency & Deposits Abroad Investment in Foreign Assets Inflation in the food & beverages segment dropped for the 3 rd consecutive month in September 2016 Inflation dynamics The general index of cost of living witnessed a slow yearly rise of 3.0% in September 2016, as against a rise of 3.3% y-o-y in August. The slowdown in inflation was owing to a further drop in the food & beverage segment inflation by -1.3% y-o-y in September (-1.0% y-o-y in August). Further, the transport segment and the housing, water, electricity & gas segment grew by a slower pace of 7.8% y-o-y in September (8.5% y-oy in August) and 6.7% y-o-y in September (7.0% y-o-y in August), respectively. However, inflation in the furnishing, household equipment & maintenance segment grew by 2.3% y-o-y in September (2.0% y-o-y in August). On a monthly basis, overall inflation logged a neutral reading of in September, as compared to a drop of 0.1% m-o-m in August Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 6
7 Figure 15 Inflation trend (y-o-y) Figure 16 Inflation drivers (y-o-y) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 14.0% 12.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% -2.0% -4.0% General Index Food And Beverages Transport Furnishings, Household Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas TASI advanced in the month of October 2016 Stock market indicators The Tadawul All Share index (TASI) gained 6.9% m-o-m in October 2016, versus a drop of 7.5% m-o-m in September. The major advancing sectors were Industrial Investments, BFSI, Real Estate, Hotel and Transport which rose 14.1%, 12.3%, 11.0%, and 8.2%, respectively. National Commercial Bank was the top performer on the index, delivering a monthly return of 32.77% in October Figure 17 Tadawul index performance Figure 18 TASI one year historic 12-month forward P/E chart Index Million x 13.0x 12.0x 11.0x 10.0x 9.0x 8.0x Volume RHS TASI Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital, Data from 29 th September 2016 to 31 st October 2016 Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 7
8 Figure 19 Top 5 Sectors MoM Figure 20 Bottom 5 sectors MoM 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% - Source: Tadawul, Al Rajhi Capital, MoM returns for October 2016 Source: Tadawul, Al Rajhi Capital, MoM returns for October 2016 Table 4 Top 5 Gainers for the month of October Name Monthly Return Market Cap (SAR Avg Volume (mn) Sector National Commercial Bank 32.8% Banks & Financial Services Saudi Arabian Mining Co 28.6% Industrial Investment Abdul Mohsen Al-Hokair Tourism and Devel 24.4% Hotel & Tourism Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co 21.4% Petrochemical Industries Bank AlJazira Banks & Financial Services Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital, Companies with market cap more than SAR 1bn Table 5 Top 5 Losers for the month of October Name Monthly Return Market Cap () Avg Volume (mn) Sector Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair & Co -30.8% Retail Yanbu Cement Co -20.4% Cement Yamama Cement Co -14.1% Cement Saudi Ceramic Co -11.7% Building & Construction Southern Province Cement Co -11.6% Cement Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital, Companies with market cap more than SAR 1bn Kingdom s non-oil private sector PMI logged its record low reading in October Consumer spending indicators The Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI declined, although remaining in the expansion territory, to 53.2 in October 2016, from 55.3 in September, owing to a slower rise in output and new orders. Point-of-sale (POS) transactions advanced 0.9% y-o-y in September 2016 as against a drop of 6.0% y-o-y in August. Meanwhile, ATM cash withdrawals witnessed a decline of 5.5% y-o-y in September as compared to a rise of 3.1% y-o-y in August Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 8
9 Figure 21 Point-of-sale transactions (POS) trend Figure 22 ATM cash withdrawals trend % % % 30% 20% % 30% 20% % % % -10% -20% % -10% -20% - -30% - -30% POS ATM Cash withdrawals Figure 23 Emirates NBD Saudi PMI Index Figure 24 Consumer spending trend (POS and ATM cash Withdrawals) POS ATM Cash withdrawals Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 9
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