Saudi Stock Market Report

Transcription

1 Market Snapshots TASI Intra-day Movement Market Commentary Global woes and sliding crude prices saw Tadawul shed 1... The global equity sell-off triggered by the Fed's gloomy outlook on the US economy, the grim conditions of the European economies and a sharp fall in the crude oil prices triggered a major sell-off in the Arab bourses on Sunday. The Tadawul All Shares Index dipped 1.0 to 6, whilst the Egyptian Benchmark Index EGX 30 hit a 2-year low. In the Saudi exchange, a total of mn shares Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Index Market Summary Close Value Traded 3,845,678,267 Volume 151,249,772 Trades 96,745 Symbols Traded 145 Market Breadth 37:101 Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Indices Summary Index Close MTD YTD Tadawul All Share Index 6, Banks & Financial Services 14, Petrochemical Industries 6, Cement 4, Retail 5, Energy & Utilities 4, Agriculture & Food Ind. 4, Telecom & IT 1, Insurance Multi-Investment 2, Industrial Investment 5, Building & Construction 2, Real Estate Development 2, Transport 2, Media and Publishing 1, Hotel & Tourism 5, Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website worth SAR3.85bn changed hands on Sunday. Grim market scenario saw declining stocks outnumbering the advancing stocks in the ratio of 101 to 37. The fall of the Saudi market is led by the index-heavy Petrochemical and the Banking Sectors. Crude oil prices falling below the $80 a barrel mark saw the Saudi Petrochemical Sector drop 1.3. While the sector leader SABIC declined by 0.5 to SAR92, several mid-caps in the sector such as SIIG, Sahara Petrochemical, Sipchem and Advanced shed over 2. Sell-off the large-caps such as Al Rajhi (down 0.7), SAMBA (down 0.9) and Riyad Bank (down 0.6) dragged the Banking Index by 1.1. The Cement, the Retail and the Agricultural & Food Sectors dropped 0.4, 1.1 and 0.5 respectively. The Retail stock, AlHokair and the Agricultural & Food stock, Anaam Holding were among the top losers of the day and closed down 2.7 and 2.9 respectively. The Agricultural stock, Saudi Fisheries bucked the negative market trend and surged 9.8, featuring among the top gainers of the day. The Industrial Investment Sector was the biggest loser of the day and retreated by 2.4, dragged by Ma aden, which plunged 4.4 and was the top loser of the day. The Telecom stocks fell, with STC, Mobily and Zain KSA retreating by 0.6, 0.9 and 1.6 respectively. The Insurance Sector rose 2.1 with several stocks in the sector gaining 9 or more. ACE was the top gainer of the day and closed limit up 10. The market outlook remains uncertain amid global uncertainty. The Saudi market is likely to take cue from the global markets movement today. Regional Market Statistics Index Close Volume ( 000) Turnover (US$ 000) No. of Trades MTD YTD Abu Dhabi SM 2, ,413 13, Dubai FM 1, ,876 20,992 1, Kuwait SE 5, ,238 87,804 2, Doha SM 1, ,056 63,461 4, Muscat SM 5, ,968 7,566 1, Bahrain SE 1, Source: Official websites of the Regional Stock Exchanges 1

2 Market Movers & Shakers Top Gainers Closing Volume (mn) Top Losers Closing Volume (mn) ACE Al Rajhi Takaful SALAMA Saudi Fisheries Buruj MA ADEN Tihama SHAKER Fitaihi Group Anaam Holding Volume Leaders Value Leaders Closing Volume (mn) Closing Value (SAR mn) Solidarity Alinma Saudi Electricity SABIC Dar Al Arkan Week New High / Low Closing New High Buruj New Low SABIC Solidarity Al Rajhi Takaful Anaam Holding Saudi Fisheries Stocks consistently gaining / losing over last three trading sessions (Top 6) Current 3 Days 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn) Saudi Fisheries Buruj ARCCI SASCO U C A FIPCO Sector Turnover (SAR mn) Sector Volume (mn) , , Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries Telecom. & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism Source: Data pertaining to all the tables and charts in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website

3 Saudi Technical Watch R: Resistance S: Support PP: Pivot Point The TASI on Sunday saw selling pressure below 6,139 (as our past analysis had suggested) and closed below the 10 day DEMA (6,123). The Index, nevertheless, managed to close above the 20 day DEMA (6,081) whilst the 40 day DEMA (6,039) is acting as strong support. The short-term Stochastic and the CCI are giving a negative signal whilst the MACD is in a positive mode. The market outlook remains uncertain. The Index is likely to take support at 6,072, 6,037 and 6,004 whilst it may face resistance at 6,115, 6139 and 6,151. TASI 6, , , , , Tadawul All Shares Index SABIC SABIC on Sunday took support at and closed marginally above the 20 day DEMA (91.53). The signals are mixed. The Stochastics and the Williams R are in a negative mode whilst the MACD is in a positive mode. Investors may exit the stock and wait for our next call. Saudi Basic Industries Corp. 3

4 Saudi Technical Watch STC STC again formed a Doji pattern. The stock closed above the 20 day DEMA (33.92) but below the 10 day DEMA (34.10). The stock is taking support at the 40 day DEMA (33.75). The Stochastics and the CCI are in a negative mode whilst the MACD is in a positive mode. Investors may stay cautious at the current level and may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 33.75, for a target of and Saudi Telecom Co. Al Rajhi Al Rajhi Bank Al Rajhi on Sunday closed above the 40 day DEMA (69.07) but faced resistance at the 10 day DEMA (69.65). The MACD and the short-term Stochastic are in a positive mode. Risk takers may accumulate the stock with a stop loss of 69.00, for a target of and

5 Saudi Technical Watch SECO Saudi Electricity on Sunday hit our suggested target of and closed above the 10 day DEMA (13.25). On the higher side, the 125 day SMA (13.52) is acting as resistance. The MACD and the CCI are in a positive mode. Investors may book complete profits at the current level and wait for our next call. Saudi Electricity Co. MA ADEN MA ADEN on Sunday closed below the support level of and also closed below the 125 day SMA (26.48). The MACD, the Stochastics and the Williams R are in a negative mode. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 26.15, for a target of and Saudi Arabian Mining Co. 5

6 GCC Technical Watch EMAAR on Sunday hit our suggested stop loss of 2.77 and closed at the same level. The stock closed below the 20 day DEMA (2.78) whilst it took support at the 40 day DEMA (2.77). The stock can again dip if it moves below The MACD is in a positive mode whilst the CCI and the Stochastics are giving a negative signal. Investors may sell the stock only below 2.76, with a stop loss of 2.78, for a target of 2.74 and EMAAR Emaar Properties (Dubai Financial Market) ARTC ARTC on Sunday did not move above our suggested trigger of 1.37 and formed a Doji pattern. The stock closed at the trend line, which is acting as strong support but closed below the 10 day DEMA. The MACD is giving a sell signal. Investors may sell the stock, with a stop loss of 1.37, for a target of 1.33 and Arabtec Holding (Dubai Financial Market) 6

7 GCC Technical Watch Dana DANA on Sunday again formed a Doji pattern. The stock closed at the 20 day DEMA (0.55) and is taking support at the 40 day DEMA (0.54). Among the technical indicators, the MACD, the Stochastics and the Williams R are giving a positive signal whilst the CCI is below the zero line. Investors may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 0.54, for a target of Dana Gas PJSC (Abu Dhabi Securities Market) IQCD IQCD on Sunday hit our suggested stop loss of but closed above it. The 40 day DEMA (121.85) is acting as strong support. The MACD is giving a positive signal whilst the Stochastics and the CCI are in a negative mode. Risk takers may buy the stock, with a stop loss of (strictly on a closing basis), for a target of and Industries of Qatar (Doha Securities Market) 7

8 GCC Technical Watch KFIN KFIN on Sunday closed below the 10 day DEMA (916) and the 20 day DEMA (913). The stock is taking support at the 40 day DEMA (895) and is nearing towards its support level of 890. The MACD is still giving a positive signal whilst the CCI is in a negative mode. Risk takers may buy the stock, with a stop loss of 890, for a target of 920. Kuwait Finance House (Kuwait Stock Exchange) 8

9 Corporate News & Announcements CMA approved the acquisition of SAIB BNP Paribas Asset Management by Alistithmar Capital, and amending business profile of Alistithmar Capital. Al-Ahsa Development announced the resignation of its CEO and the appointment of new CEO. (Source: Tadawul) The investment unit of Saad Group, a Saudi company in global litigation over its default in 2009, won a U.K. court order freezing 57.3mn ($88.7mn) held by its billionaire founder Maan Al-Sanea. Saad Investments Ltd., which is being liquidated in the Cayman Islands, won the asset freeze in the High Court in London after claiming there was a risk Al-Sanea would spend the money before paying potential damages. (Source: Bloomberg) 9

10 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () RIBL , , BJAZ , , SIBC , , Saudi Hollandi , Saudi Fransi , , SABB , , Arab National , , SAMBA , , Al Rajhi ,127 77, , AL Bilad , Alinma ,998 74, , N/A CHEMANOL , N/A N/A , Petrochem ,230 49, N/A N/A ,560 N/A 2.2 N/A SABIC , , , SAFCO , , Industrialization ,586 62, , Alujain ,922 36, , N/A Nama Chemicals , , N/A SIIG ,385 26, , Sahara Petrochemical ,441 50, , YANSAB , , ,425 N/A 2.8 N/A Sipchem ,741 31, , N/A Advanced , , Saudi Kayan ,928 65, N/A N/A ,350 N/A 1.6 N/A Petro Rabigh ,696 66, N/A N/A , N/A Arab Cement , , Yamamah Cement , , Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 10

11 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Saudi Cement , , Qassim Cement , , Southern Cement , N/A Yanbu Cement , , Eastern Cement , , Tabuk Cement , , Joufcmnt ,657 38, ,892 N/A 1.4 N/A A.Othaim Market , , Mouwasat , , SASCO , N/A Thim'ar , N/A N/A N/A Fitaihi Group ,402 16, Jarir , , Aldrees , , AlHokair , , Alkhaleej Trng , Gas&Industrialization , , Saudi Electricity ,348 97, , SAVOLA Group , , Food , SADAFCO , , Almarai , , Anaam Holding , , N/A HB , HERFY , ,985 N/A 4.8 N/A NADEC , , Qassim Agriculture , N/A N/A Tabuk Agriculture ,083 27, Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 11

12 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Saudi Fisheries , , N/A N/A N/A Sharqiya Dev Co , N/A N/A N/A Jouff Agriculture , Bishah Agriculture N/A N/A N/A 6.9 N/A Jazan Development , N/A N/A STC , , Etihad Etisalat , , ZAIN KSA ,599 16, N/A N/A , N/A Atheeb Telecom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Almutakamela N/A ,597 54, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tawuniya , , Malath Insurance , MEDGULF , , N/A ALLIANZSF , N/A N/A N/A SALAMA ,014 33, Walaa Insurance , N/A N/A N/A Arabian Shield , N/A SABB Takaful ,646 51, N/A N/A N/A SANAD , N/A N/A N/A SAICO ,499 45, N/A N/A N/A Saudi Indian ,289 41, N/A N/A N/A Gulf Union , N/A N/A N/A ATC , N/A N/A N/A Al-Ahlia ,639 49, N/A N/A N/A ACIG , N/A N/A N/A AICC , N/A N/A N/A Trade Union , N/A Sagr Insurance ,042 22, N/A UCA , N/A Saudi Re ,537 32, N/A N/A N/A Bupa Arabia , N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 12

13 Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table Current () MTD YTD 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () Weqaya Takaful ,022 88, N/A N/A N/A ARCCI , , N/A N/A N/A ACE , N/A N/A N/A 5.3 N/A AXA-Cooperative , , N/A N/A N/A Gulf General ,169 62, N/A N/A N/A Buruj , N/A N/A N/A ALALAMIYA ,325 77, N/A N/A N/A 4.0 N/A Solidarity , , N/A N/A ,007 N/A 2.1 N/A WATANiYA ,073 56, N/A N/A N/A AMANAINSURANCE ,014 34, N/A N/A , N/A SARCO , N/A Saudi Advanced , N/A N/A Al Ahsa for Dev , SISCO ,490 17, N/A N/A Assir , , Al Baha ,215 18, N/A N/A N/A Kingdom , , BCI , MAADEN , , N/A N/A , Astra Indust , , N/A AlSorayai Group , N/A SHAKER , ,153 N/A N/A N/A Pharmaceutical , , Glass , , FIPCO , N/A Maadaniyah , N/A N/A Saudi Chemical , , SPM , , N/A AlAbdullatif , , Saudi Export , N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website 13

14 Current () MTD YTD Tadawul Market Performance & Valuation Table 52-Week Range Volume ( 000) Value (SAR 000) Beta ASLAK N/A , MMG , N/A N/A , SSP , , N/A ALKHODARI , , N/A Ceramic , , Gypsum , Cables , N/A N/A Saudi Industrial , N/A N/A Amiantit , , Pipes , N/A N/A Zamil Industrial , , AL Babtain , SVCP N/A MESC , N/A N/A Red Sea , , Real Estate , , Taiba , , Makkah , , Arriyadh Development , , Emaar E.C ,950 12, N/A N/A , N/A Jabal Omar ,094 13, N/A N/A , N/A Dar Al Arkan ,746 35, , KEC ,083 7, N/A N/A , N/A Shipping ,107 12, , SAPTCO ,058 7, Mubarrad ,438 25, N/A N/A Budget Saudi , Tihama , SRMG , , SPPC ,501 20, Hotels , , Shams , N/A N/A N/A Source: Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website Dividend Yield () PE EPS Free Float () Market Cap (SAR mn) / Revenue P/B P/CF ROA () ROE () 14

15 Definition - Technical Indicators Candlestick Patterns, Doji DojiI is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value indicates bearish momentum. Hammer A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend. Inverse-black-hammer: a bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day. Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average) Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side. DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A crossover of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside for a short time. MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. RSI - Relative Strength Index When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or sttock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an overbought level. ROC When the ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock. Stochastic Oscillators When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. Williams R When Williams R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds. There are two methods of interpreting the CCI: 1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price. 2. As an overbought/oversold indicator The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci Levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and

16 Whipsaw A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name. Gravestone Doji In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal. Inside Bar An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts. Big Bar A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern. Higher High This implies that today s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Lower High This implies that today s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s). Higher Low This implies that today s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Lower Low This implies that today s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s). Triangle This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line) or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line). Standard Error Channel Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it depends on the traders' common opinion. s trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes. Long Headed Doji Pattern This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels. 16

17 Double Tops / Double Bottoms A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is important for trading double tops or double bottoms. Three White Soldiers Formation The Three White Soldiers formation indicates a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed higher than the previous day, with each session's open occurring within the body of the previous candle. Bullish Harami Cross Pattern This is a Doji contained within a large black body. This is a bottom reversal signal. 17

18 Contact Us Dr. Saleh Alsuhaibani Head of Research Tel : alsuhaibanis@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital Research Department P.O Box 5561 Riyadh Saudi Arabia Tel : Fax : research@alrajhi-capital.com Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, No /37. Disclaimer This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital ( Al Rajhi Capital ) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi Capital s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments, including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital, together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained in this research document. This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 18