Investment Fundamentals Forum 21 January 2013
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1 Investment Fundamentals Forum 21 January 2013 Economic Variables Still Matter to Markets? Suan Teck Kin, CFA 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 1 Key Drivers in Market Trends Since Global Financial Crisis major central banks have taken on more active roles Quantitative Easing (QE) programs a dominant market driver Are economic parameters still relevant? 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 2 1
2 Supermarket Shelves Why? Photo sources: The invisible man: Liu Bolin's amazing camouflage artwork ; Google Images 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 3 Bluefin Tuna vs Chicken Why? Photo sources: Google Images 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 4 2
3 03/01/10 05/01/10 07/01/10 09/01/10 11/01/10 01/01/11 03/01/11 05/01/11 07/01/11 09/01/11 11/01/11 01/01/12 03/01/12 05/01/12 07/01/12 09/01/12 11/01/12 01/01/13 1/22/ % change US: Inflation Expectations US: Inflation Expectations vs. Stock Index R = D change in 10Y Nominal UST Minus TIPS Yields 20D change in SPX Source: Bloomberg; UOB Econ-Treasury Research est 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 5 Eurozone: Jobless Rates EA17 EU27 US Japan Source: Eurostat 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 6 3
4 Eurozone: Jobless Ranks Millions, unemployed persons Source: Eurostat 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 7 Global Central Banks Dominate for as long as it takes Bernanke, on announcing QE3 s US$40bn monthly MBS purchase on 13 Sep 2012 Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough. ECB President Draghi s speech, 26 Jul 2012 whatever it takes to meet an inflation target former Japan PM Shinzo Abe, 12 Dec 2012 Photo sources: Google Images 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 8 4
5 Global Central Banks Dominate To infinity and beyond? 17% of world s GDP, vs. 5.6% in 2008 Source: JP Morgan Asset Management Outlook 2013, UOB Econ-Treasury Research est 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 9 US: Fed Balance Sheet US Fed Balance Sheet at end-2013: US$4 trillions Source: 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 10 5
6 Motivation for QE? Fed Chairman s Bernanke speech in Jackson Hole, 31 Aug 2012:* LSAP1 and LSAP2 purchases of US Treasury securities (@ US$1.7tn and US$0.6tn) Estimated combined effects: 10Y yield by bps; output 3%; payroll 2 millions * 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 11 Motivation for QE? Lower T yields Less attractive Move out the risk curve corp bonds, equities, etc Higher asset prices = wealth effect spending and confidence job creation Other effects asset bubble, hyperinflation, dollar debasement? 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 12 6
7 T-20 T-20 T-16 T-16 T-12 T-12 T-8 T-8 T-4 T-4 T+0 T+0 T+4 T+4 T+8 T+8 T+12 T+12 T+16 T+16 T+20 T+20 T+24 T+24 T+28 T+28 T+32 T+32 T+36 T+36 T+40 T+40 T+44 T+44 T+48 T+48 T+52 T+52 T+56 T+56 T+60 T+60 1/22/2013 Effects of QE Index = 100 at t=0; US Dollar Index USD Index: Impact of US Fed QE Programs QE2 Average QE QE1 (21 Nov M ar 10) QE2 (3 Nov Jun 11) QE3 (13 Sep 12 to??) 96.0 Average of QE1 and QE2 Source: CEIC; UOB Econ-Treasury Research est 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 13 Effects of QE Index = 100 at t=0; Gold spot price Gold Price: Impact of US Fed QE Programs QE1 (21 Nov Mar 10) QE2 (3 Nov Jun 11) QE3 (13 Sep 12 to??) Average of QE1 and QE2 QE1 Average QE QE Source: CEIC; UOB Econ-Treasury Research est 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 14 7
8 T-20 T-16 T-12 T-8 T-4 T+0 T+4 T+8 T+12 T+16 T+20 T+24 T+28 T+32 T+36 T+40 T+44 T+48 T+52 T+56 T+60 1/22/2013 Effects of QE Crude Oil Price: Impact of US Fed QE Programs QE1 (21 Nov Mar 10) QE2 (3 Nov Jun 11) QE3 (13 Sep 12 to??) Average of QE1 and QE2 QE Average Index = 100 at t=0; Brent spot px QE1 Source: CEIC; UOB Econ-Treasury Research est 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 15 QE Now What? Source: Interactive Brokers TV ad 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 16 8
9 Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payroll, in 000s 1/22/2013 QE Now What? US: How Long Would It Take to Hit 6.5% Jobless Rate? In , only 7 months saw >200k, i.e. 1/3 155 Dec '12 NFP = +155k; Average = 153k Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 17 QE Now What? Simplied US Federal Budget Statement FY2013 US$ billions % of GDP Nom GDP est (IMF) 16, % Total Revenue 2, % Individual Incomel Tax 1, % Total Expenditure 3, % Interest expense % Budget balance (901.0) -5.6% Total Federal Debt 16, % average interest rate 1.5% Assume interest rate 3.0% NEW debt service amount % Personal tax increases needed to cover: 18.1% To keep budget balance unchanged, with higher interest rate: Total Revenue 3, % Individual Incomel Tax 1, % Total Expenditure 4, % Interest expense % Budget balance (901.00) -5.6% Source: whitehouse.gov/omb/; UOB Economic Treasury Research est 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 18 9
10 QE Now What? 10,000 8,000 6,000 US Budget: Can It Afford To Have Higher Interest Rates? USD billions Interest expense, Total Expenditure, 3, x Interest expense, % Total Expenditure, 4, ,000 Individual Incomel Tax, 1, % Individual Incomel Tax, 1, , ,000 Total Revenue, 2,902.0 Fiscal balance, (901) +8.5% Total Revenue, 3,147.6 Fiscal balance, (901) FY2013 Scenario (Interest Rate doubled to 3%) Source: whitehouse.gov/omb/; UOB Economic Treasury Research est 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 19 Summary Major central banks have taken on more active roles Entrenched and not easy to withdraw Quantitative Easing (QE) programs a dominant market driver will remain Economic parameters still matter more so as key inputs into central bank decisions 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved
11 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved. 21 Thank You 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved
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