Commodities Weekly Rates, FX, and Commodities Strategy

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1 Rates, FX, and Commodities Strategy PRECIOUS METALS AND PETROLEUM COMPLEX APPLYING NEGATIVE PRESSURE COMMODITIES UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS 2 COMMODITIES CHART LOGIC: BASE METALS/COPPER 5 ECONOMIC INDICATORS & DATA CALENDAR 1 COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS 11 MODEL PORTFOLIO TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS 11 TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS INDEX 12 WEEKLY PRICE TABLE 13 ETF MONITOR TABLE & CHARTS 14 CHART PACKAGE 16 RESEARCH TEAM 24 Change in Price (%) Molybdenum Coal Platinum Lead Zinc Copper Heating Oil Nickel Aluminum Brent WTI Palladium Uranium S&P GSCI Index Commodity Price Percent Change (28-Jul-17 to 4-Aug-17) Gold -.2% -.3% -.5% -.5% -.5% -.9% 3.1% 1.9% 1.2%.8%.5%.5%.2% 9.3% 11.3% Weekly Commodity Movers & Shakers Platinum prices strengthened with news of US imposing sanctions on Russia, while expectations of improved European industrial activity and strong auto sales also helped. WTI crude prices were unchanged on the week as continued inventory draws saw crude rally above $5/ bbl, where traders likely took profits. Silver prices retreated with gold on Friday following an impressive jobs report that saw the yellow metal retreat from recent highs, but remain above technical support at $1,25/oz. Natural Gas weakened as speculators decreased their net length in response to rising production expectations amid above-average inventories, following a mild winter and spring. Gasoline Silver Henry Hub NG -5.7% -1.8% -2.9% AECO NG -1.3% Disclaimer: This report is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements, as outlined in the UK FCA s COBS, designed to promote the independence of investment research and is also not subject to any prohibition of dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, although as a matter of policy TD Securities requires its employees not to deal ahead of the dissemination of this report. 1

2 COMMODITIES UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS WTI Looking to Consolidate Around $5/bbl For Now Commodities moderated as oil retreated amid rising concerns US shale producers will increase activity and precious metals bounced off resistance in response to firm payrolls, USD and rates. Gold touched its lowest level in just under two weeks at $1,254/oz as investors worried that continued US employment strength will prompt the Fed to deliver tighter monetary policy. Base metals continued to show strength amid China demand optimism, US economic strength and supply uncertainties. Despite less drilling, dropping inventories and potential declines in Venezuelan exports, concerns surrounding shale producer output increases depressed the petroleum complex. After a good week, industrial metal strength was not enough to prevent the sharp drop in silver, gold, palladium and petroleum/ products from forcing the S&P GSCI lower for the eighth time since late-may. $/oz Firmer Dollar Forces Gold To Bounce Lower 121 Gold USD Index (rhs) May 1 - Jun 1 - Jul 1 - Aug Index Gold and its precious metal peers fell sharply on Friday, as the expectations of monetary tightening in the United States following stronger-than-expected jobs data strengthened the dollar and lifted yields across the curve. The firmer US dollar, steeper yield curve and higher rates all conspired to increase the carry and opportunity cost of holding gold, which likely prompted speculative investors to reduce net long exposure in the complex driving gold to a low of $1,254/oz and silver to just $16.2/oz. Meanwhile, concerns that a rise in North American crude will prevent a global rebalancing, following a EIA weekly report showing US production grew by some 2k bbls/d and statements suggesting shale producers are reading to grow supply, forced WTI to $48.5/bbl and Brent to just under $51.5/bbl. Crude markets remain under selling pressure on Monday, even as Baker Hughes data showed oil rig counts are slowly dropping and inventories are continuing to adjust. The market also did not respond very positively to speculation that the deteriorating political situation in Venezuela and sanctions may reduce exports to the US. We expect crude to consolidate near current levels before moving into $6 territory late in the year. But the market will need to see continued decline in US inventories and a commitment from OPEC to what is required in order to rebalance the market, which could include the extension of the current restrictive production regime beyond Q The combination of China and Europe optimism, firm US data and supply concerns continued to place a bid under the base metals complex last week. The rally was extended into Monday aluminium climbed the most since October on speculation capacity cuts in China will tighten supply, nickel rose some 1.6 percent, copper shot through $6,4//t and zinc was challenging $2,9/t. A jump in steel and iron ore prices is also helping to keep the bids on the base metals complex, as markets bet that smelting activity will moderate during winter months. Hebei province, the center of China s smelting industry, will go ahead with plans that ll allow 2

3 for output cuts of as much as 5 percent in the winter months to reduce pollution. Higher steel price suggest that the more profitable smelters will be able to pay higher for inputs such as nickel and zinc. Traders are also speculating Henan and Shandon provinces would reduce activity if the Hebei region does. While we do agree this would tighten markets, the current surge may be overdone given the ample availability of above-ground stocks and less growth momentum into H Flat Curve and Low Rates Should Prevent Gold Rout Firm US Payrolls Reverse Gold's Upward Momentum but No Rout for Precious Complex With the concern that wages will not prevent inflation from unfolding as Fed officials projected, gold has dropped to its lowest since late-july to as low as $1,254/oz on Friday and remained slightly above those levels on Monday. Somewhat more aggressively, silver dropped to a low $16.2/oz and also remained depressed during the first session of the new trading week. The US jobs report, which showed stronger-than-expected employment and a 2.5% wage gain, has served as catalyst to convince gold traders that the opportunity cost of holding gold will likely continue to rise into September. Investors are worried that higher rates resulting from the Fed reducing its balance sheet starting in September and lifting policy rates once more this year and 3+ times in 218 will make gold and silver less appealing. Indeed, ETF gold holdings have slipped some 2.36 million oz since the highs reached in June. Moreover, Q2-217 total gold demand of tonnes was 1 percent lower than a year-ago, while demand for the first six months slowed 14 percent to 2,3.8 tonnes. Net central bank purchases of 176.7t were also slightly lower in the first half (-3 percent). But not all was bad on the gold demand front, bar and coin investment was positive, as was jewellery demand. And, specs have been growing long exposure and covering shorts, with plenty of room to get more net long. This is particularly true for silver. With continued doubts that the Fed will be able to tighten policy by as much as it is signaling next year, recent payrolls data notwithstanding, risk of an equity market correction and geopolitical instability on the Korean Peninsula likely means that a silver or gold rout is unlikely for now. Weaker-than-expected data in the US, a flare up of tensions between Korea and the US or a sharp stock market drop could all be catalyst for a gold/silver move back toward the upper bound of the recent trading range. The July CPI number is the one to watch for any possible weakness. Any new doubts surrounding the promised US tax plan, which would re-energize profits or Congressional tensions surrounding the debt ceiling or the US federal budget are additional reasons why we expect precious metals holding their ground Improvement in Economic Data Sends Gold Lower Citi US Economic Surprise Index Gold Price (rhs) For now, gold should only ease down toward $1,253 (1d ma) and silver should likely stay not far off its 25d ma of around $16.27/oz into August. Lower levels are not expected for now, as Fed policy ambiguity remains in the eyes of many market participants given the depressed inflation levels. Index $/oz Russia Sanctions and South African Politics Spell Good News for PGMs Platinum climbed 3.1 percent last week and posted another strong performance on Monday to top out $97.4/oz, after hitting its highest since late April at $97.1 in the previous session. This was -1 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan - May its best weekly performance since January. The six-straight days of increases was fueled by the US imposed sanctions on Russia, which is the world s second-biggest producer responsible for 3

4 some 11 percent of global primary supply. The market fears that shipments from Russia may decline at a time European auto Catalyst demand is recovering, which may significantly tighten markets. Russia Sanctions and South Africa Controversy Can Send PGMs The announcement of a secret ballot vote on a no-confidence motion that could oust Jacob Zuma, who has been South Africa s president since 29, has also helped platinum move higher. The secret ballot increases the possibility that there may be leadership change in South Africa and potential instability. The African country produces some 7 percent of mined platinum in the world. Recent price trends are in line the TD Securities positive platinum view. Palladium also had a good day on Monday, but it has underperformed platinum over the last several weeks. Platinum has better demand prospects due to recovering European auto demand, which tend to have a higher concentrations of diesel fueled vehicles and use more platinum in their autocatalysts. Bart Melek 4

5 BASE METALS RALLY RUNNING ON FUMES The base metals complex hit its highest level since May 215 recently, as copper temporarily broke above $6,4/t resistance while zinc, aluminium nickel and lead all hovered near their twelve-month highs. The LME aggregate price index is up some 45 percent from the lows found back in January 216, reaching a high of nearly 3,. The recent industrial metal rally was kicked off by a China report showing stronger-than-expected Q2-217 GDP, along with news of potential bans on certain copper scrap imports into China and risks of copper supply disruptions helping propel the index to the very top of technical resistance. IMF upgrades to the Chinese, European and Japanese GDP forecasts have also helped markets to get bullish. Continued speculation that China will shutter "illegal" and dirty aluminium production in pollutionvulnerable major urban centers, the shutdown of Indonesian nickel smelters and talk of higher taxes in the Philippines along with the ongoing zinc deficit talk and delayed mine reopening were also very important developments which made traders confident that the supply-demand balance for these metals will continue to tighten. LME Index Bumping Into Resistance Firm demand expectations and supply side concerns all worked in tandem to shift sentiment toward the positive, with aggressive long positioning being a key factor driving prices higher. The most recent part of the rally has been driven more by technicals and speculative positioning, rather than a sustained positive shift in the fundamentals that would permanently tighten conditions to the point of material scarcity across the metals complex, and for that reason we expect prices to bounce lower in the not too distant future. Considering that further positive economic surprises coming from China and Europe are not in the cards, and that inventories are more than ample to weather any production disruptions from strikes or smelter shutdowns, this rally appears to be running on fumes. Indeed, it is likely that a copper correction will take the rest of the Index Jan Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy Positive Economic Surprises Can't Last Forever Bad For Upward Momentum Apr Jul Citi Economic Surprise - China Citi Economic Surprise - Eurozone Citi Economic Surprise - EM LME Index (rhs) Oct - Jan Apr Jul *Citi Index value greater than means positive economic surprise industrials down, once it becomes apparent that scarcities are not about to happen. A correction in the LME price index of roughly 8-1 percent is well within the realm of possibility. As far as we are concerned, the excessive longs in copper, zinc, aluminium and to some extent nickel are very vulnerable to an unwind. The catalyst will probably be less demand euphoria, likely driven by higher interest rates in Europe, moderating Chinese real estate/autos and less car sales and industrial activity in the USA. The global manufacturing PMI has peaked or is nearing one, as have the Chinese and US versions recently. At the same time, it now looks unlikely that a big, extensive infrastructure program in the US is in the cards anytime soon. This suggests that positive economic surprises which helped the metals rally will indeed be in short supply the IMF forecast change reflected the past and was not forwardlooking, considering recent developments and medium term central bank actions. We still expect the Chinese and the rest of the global economy to be decent, and are projecting that copper demand will grow under 2 percent in 218/19, aluminum about 4 percent, zinc 2.5 percent and nickel just over 4.5 percent. But, considering that there are above-normal inventories and mine supply growth which should balance demand increases (zinc mine operators may well reopen shuttered projects in response to higher prices, for example), current prices would represent lofty expectations reflecting a significant change in the fundamental outlook for supply-demand balances across the base metals space. Index 5

6 Base Metals Follow Global Manufacturing But China Losing Momentum Market participants have interpreted a strong Q2 from China and the upgrade in growth expectations from the IMF as signaling a significant increase in demand, while viewing the potential ban of category 7 imports by China and mine disruptions as a tightening in copper supply, which helped sentiment across the whole complex. ' Contracts Longs Looking Exhausted & Shorts Have Room to Run Given the spec positioning, technical factors, demand and pending supply-side developments, the balance of risks is on the downside for base metals. Starting with copper, base metals demand factors are likely to lose upward momentum and supply concerns should abate, which would drive specs to reduce length and prompt technicians to seek lower levels. The realization that the economic upward momentum, which prompted markets to bid up the metals from copper to zinc, is set to stall somewhat is the most likely catalyst for price reversals. The negative seasonal demand impact in the latter half of 217 is additional factor that doesn t bode well for the base metal complex. Supply side developments, which could include labour agreements between unions and copper miners or the restart of zinc mines shuttered last year, could be another set of developments which could trigger specs to unwind longs and build short positions as well. We see a potential 8-1 per cent decline in the LME base metals price index. This would imply a correction from lofty levels to more sustainable and profitable ones, not a rout. 3 Aggregate Long Specs Aggregate Short Specs 2 Aug - 14 Aug - 15 Aug - 16 Aug - 17 *Includes Money Manager Positions in Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel and Lead 6

7 COPPER UPSIDE IN THE CARDS BEFORE A MOVE JUST BELOW $6, Copper has recently tested the $6,4/t resistance, which was the highest level since 215 and represents a 17 percent rebound from the low of $5,462.5/t recorded back in early-may. The recent rally kicked off after impressive Chinese data in Q2 hit the screens, news of potential bans on certain scrap imports and risks of supply disruptions saw key technical levels breached. This latest rally has forced us to stop out of our previous short position, but because we view this move as driven more by technicals and speculative positioning rather than a sustainable shift in the fundamental outlook for the metal, we continue to see copper lower in the longer term. Given the speculative positioning and technicals, the possibility of a further upside move toward $6,8/t remains very much in the cards over the medium to near term. But, longer term we see prices settling down closer to $5,8-6,/t. Should the upside move materialize or short positioning return to more normal levels ceteris paribus, we will be looking to short copper. We still expect the Chinese economy to be decent, and are projecting that copper demand will grow some 2% in 218, with the market set to be roughly balanced on the year, but current prices would represent a significant change in the fundamental outlook of the metal, which we do not see to be the case. Market participants have interpreted a strong Q2 from China and the upgrade in growth expectations from the IMF as signaling a significant increase in demand, while viewing the potential ban of category 7 scrap imports by China and mine disruptions as a tightening in supply. But, the more hawkish bias taken by the Speculative Positioning And Technicals suggest further upside move toward $6,8/t remains possible Ryan McKay, Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali, Commodity Strategist PBoC of late suggests the current lofty demand expectations priced into copper are likely too high, and we view the impact of the rumored scrap import ban and potential mine strikes as over exaggerated. Indeed on the demand side, we are already starting to see signs that expectations may not be met. Details of the latest trade data continued to show weakness in copper imports, the June property price reports showed another deceleration in real estate values (with Beijing prices dropping for the first time since 215), auto sales in the Middle Kingdom have also begun to wane with less tax incentive and credit is not as ample as it YoY (%) % Weaker Imports and Elevated Inventories to Weigh on Prices Long Term China Copper Metal and Conc Imports (lhs) China Copper Stocks - exchange and bonded warehouses Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun China Real Estate Demand Sensitive to Rates ' tonnes YoY 3% 2% 1% % -1% Jan Sep - May - Jan Sep - May - Jan Sep - May % Beijing House Prices YoY% Shanghai House Prices YoY% PBoC Short Term Interest Rates (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Haver, TDS 7

8 used to be, as signaled by both S&P and Moody's downgrading the credit rating of China. Also, given that the message of deleveraging and tightening regulation was reiterated at the financial work conference recently, we do not expected that Chinese data will continue to outperform and boost prices as we have seen in Q2. While the Chinese scrap import ban has the potential to moderately tighten available supply for smelter use, the overall longer term impact is likely exaggerated by the current upside price action. Although category 7 scrap accounts for approximately twothirds of scrap imports, on a contained copper basis they only account for approximately one-third of the actual copper content. Also, the numbers of scrap processors in Southeast Asia have been on the rise which means that plenty of category 7 scrap is being disassembled and processed outside China, before ultimately being imported as the allowed category 6. This leads us to believe the overall the impact of such a ban would have a muted impact on the global supply-demand balance. Further, TD Securities considers fears of supply-side disruptions as a result of labour strikes tilting the market into a deficit to be overblown as well. By way of example, the Zaldivar mine strike in Chile ended promptly as suggested by our historical analysis of mine strikes since 1995 at the world's largest copper producing country. While in Peru, the second largest producing nation, a nationwide strike is not expected to affect production as 95% of workers have opted to not participate. Another case in point suggesting labour stoppages will not cause material shortages, the ongoing strike at Grasberg (the world's second largest copper mine), has resulted in some absenteeism only somewhat affecting output growth. But the more significant and enduring permit dispute between Freeport McMorran and the Indonesian government has seen some progress. In fact, the Indonesian government is said to have agreed to an extension of the Special Mining License to 221. With the potential for two ten year extensions, such an agreement would reassure the market of the mine's long-term ability to export product, but Freeport McMorran is seeking an extension to 241 in order to meet other hurdles in the packaged negotiation. The market has interpreted the progress as significantly reducing the likelihood of an impasse. Notwithstanding the latter, we expect further supply-side driven rallies to be capped by bloated inventory levels which would prevent any tightness from an anticipated market deficit. The levels of inventories are already too high, standing at over 7 days' worth of consumption compared to the more normal level of 5 days where prices start to get elevated. It should also be noted that the market is expected to be in a rough primary balance. In the short term though, copper could well be set for more fireworks as both long and short specs have increased their positions on both the COMEX and LME. On the COMEX, long positioning is now at a record high and short positions are also very close to record levels, while net spec positioning has reached a 21-week high on the LME. # Strikes Strikes in Chile Tend to be Short Lived Chilean Strike Duration Distribution $/tonne 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, High Inventory Levels and Fundamentals Suggest Current Price Above Equilibrium 217 C2 Cost Curve Current Price 2,5 Equilibrium Price Given Inventory 2, Adjustment 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% Strike Duration (days) Sources: Wood Mackenzie, TD Securities Source: Wood Mackenzie, TD Securities 8

9 It has become somewhat like a game of chicken between the bulls and the bears, the record longs could be tempted to take profits at these elevated prices, while the shorts could be forced to cover. A big reduction from either could see technical levels tested and CTA interest drive prices in the near term. In the near term, should a short covering rally ensue, we could see prices trend as high as $6,8-7,2/t. But for reasons mentioned above, we think such a rally would be short lived and would be looking to short as the fundamentals point to more sustainable prices of $5,8-6,/t. Contracts 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - Elevated Longs & Shorts Could Prove For Volatility in the Near Term Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Long Copper Short Copper Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities 9

10 ECONOMIC INDICATORS & DATA CALENDAR Final US June wholesale inventories, July PPI and the July CPI will be Key economic data on the calendar with the capacity to move the commodity complex, particularly gold and silver. After plenty of weakness in past inflation data, a strong jobs report in July showing a pick-up in wage inflation helped get the market back on board with expecting further rate hikes in 217. This saw gold retrace from over $1,27/oz back toward $1,25/oz, but no major rout was in the cards just yet as traders look forward to this Friday's July CPI data. Should the CPI data disappoint, which the TD Securities macro team anticipates, the latest confidence in Fed action would likely be short lived and the yellow metal would promptly return to the upper bound of the trading range. On the other hand if the inflation data recovers and the market begins pricing in another hike with more certainty, prices could break below the 5dma and head toward $1,24-3/oz. But it is unlikely investors completely abandon precious metals with positioning already near the lows, the USD remaining under pressure, debt ceiling negotiations and increasing tensions with North Korea all on the radar. On the base metals side a busy week of Chinese data could prove important as most metals are pushing against resistance levels. On the data calendar this week is the July trade data, CPI, PPI, new loans, retail sales and industrial production numbers. After a strong Q2 in China the base metals have begun pricing in continued optimism and should the data come in lower-than-expected then that could be the catalyst needed to see the whole complex head lower from these highs. If the data continues to impress though, the metals could break through resistance. But with long positions already looking stretched it is unlikely the moves higher will be sustained. As always, any headlines on Chinese steel or aluminum capacity cuts, updates on Philippines or Indonesian mining supply, or news of any mine strikes will also have the chance to impact price action. In energy markets, traders have started to get long again as sentiment in the market has improved drastically since June. But they will need continued large inventory draws, slowing US production and more reductions in the rig count to see WTI move sustainably above the $5/bbl mark. Apart from the weekly inventory numbers, traders will also be watching the Chinese oil import data as a gauge for global demand appetite, while also keeping an eye on any updates surrounding the sanctions on Venezuela. Ryan McKay Release Consensus Prior TUESDAY (August 8th) 6: USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jul) : USD JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) : USD DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook (Aug) : USD DOE Short-Term Mogas Outlook (Aug) : USD DOE Short-Term Diesel Outlook (Aug) : USD DOE Short-Term Ht Oil Outlook (Aug) : USD DOE Short-Term NatGas Outlook (Aug) :3 CNY CPI y/y (Jul) 1.5% 1.5% 21:3 CNY PPI y/y (Jul) 5.6% 5.5% 8/7-8/18 CNY Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY (Jul) % 8/7-8/8 CNY Imports y/y (Jul) 18.% 17.2% 8/7-8/8 CNY Trade Balance (Jul) $45.bn $42.8bn 8/7-8/8 CNY Crude Oil Imports Volume Tons (Jul) m 8/7-8/8 CNY Refined Petroleum Oil Exports Volume To m 8/7-8/8 CNY Coal/Lignite Imports Volume Tons (Jul) m 8/7-8/8 CNY Refined Petroleum Oil Imports Volume To m 8/7-8/8 CNY Fuel Oil Imports Volume Tons (Jul) --.9m 8/7-8/8 CNY Exports YoY CNY (Jul) 14.8% 17.3% 8/7-8/8 CNY Imports YoY CNY (Jul) 22.6% 23.1% 8/7-8/8 CNY Trade Balance CNY (Jul) bn 294.3bn 8/7-8/8 CNY Exports y/y (Jul) 11.% 11.3% 8/7-8/11 USD Mortgage Delinquencies (2Q) % 8/7-8/11 USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (2Q) % 217 BRL Petrobras Gasoline Price Chg (Aug) --.% 217 BRL Petrobras Diesel Price Chg (Aug) --.6% WEDNESDAY 7: USD MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug) % 8:3 USD Nonfarm Productivity (2Q P).7%.% 8:3 USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q P) 1.1% 2.2% 1: USD Wholesale Trade Sales m/m (Jun).% -.5% 1: USD Wholesale Inventories m/m (Jun F).6%.6% 1:3 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Aug) -21k -1527k 1:3 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (Aug) k 1:3 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (Aug) -175k -2517k 1:3 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (Aug) -5k -15k 1:3 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (Aug) -.5% 1.1% 1:3 USD DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (Aug) :3 USD DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (Aug) :3 USD DOE Distillate Implied Demand (Aug) /9-8/15 CNY Money Supply M2 y/y (Jul) 9.5% 9.4% 8/9-8/15 CNY Money Supply M1 y/y (Jul) 14.% 15.% 8/9-8/15 CNY Money Supply M y/y (Jul) 6.5% 6.6% 8/9-8/15 CNY New Yuan Loans CNY (Jul) 8.bn 154.bn 8/9-8/15 CNY Aggregate Financing CNY (Jul) 1.bn 178.bn THURSDAY 8:3 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug) 24k 24k 8:3 USD Continuing Claims (Jul) 196k 1968k 8:3 USD PPI Final Demand m/m (Jul).1%.1% 8:3 USD PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m (Jul).2%.1% 8:3 USD PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade m/m (Jul).2%.2% 8:3 USD PPI Final Demand y/y (Jul) 2.2% 2.% 8:3 USD PPI Ex Food and Energy y/y (Jul) 2.1% 1.9% 8:3 USD PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade y/y (Jul) -- 2.% 9:45 USD Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (Aug) :3 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Aug) :3 USD EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (Aug) : USD Monthly Budget Statement (Jul) -$54.bn -$9.2bn FRIDAY 8:3 USD CPI m/m (Jul).2%.% 8:3 USD CPI Ex Food and Energy m/m (Jul).2%.1% 8:3 USD CPI y/y (Jul) 1.8% 1.6% 8:3 USD CPI Ex Food and Energy y/y (Jul) 1.7% 1.7% 8:3 USD CPI Core Index SA (Jul) :3 USD CPI Index NSA (Jul) :3 USD Real Avg Weekly Earnings y/y (Jul) % 8:3 USD Real Avg Hourly Earning y/y (Jul) --.8% 13: USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (Aug) : USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (Aug) : USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (Aug) SATURDAY SUNDAY 22: CNY Retail Sales y/y (Jul) 1.8% 11.% 22: CNY Retail Sales YTD y/y (Jul) 1.5% 1.4% 22: CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD y/y (Jul) 8.6% 8.6% 22: CNY Industrial Production y/y (Jul) 7.1% 7.6% 22: CNY Industrial Production YTD y/y (Jul) 6.9% 6.9% MONDAY (August 14th) 5: EUR Industrial Production SA m/m (Jun) : EUR Industrial Production WDA y/y (Jun) Source: Bloomberg *Eastern Standard Time 1

11 COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS: Commodity Spot Annual (Avg of forward month contracts) Price Q1A Q2A Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F F 218F Precious Metals Gold 1 $/oz 1,258 1,219 1,257 1,275 1,275 1,3 1,3 1,325 1,325 1,25 1,257 1,313 Silver 1 $/oz Platinum 1 $/oz , 1,25 1,5 1,75 1, ,63 Palladium 1 $/oz Base Metals #N/A Copper 2 $/lb $/tonne 6,384 5,838 5,668 5,66 5,688 5,732 5,732 5,842 5,842 4,867 5,713 5,787 Zinc 2 $/lb $/tonne 2,848 2,778 2,591 2,734 2,734 2,91 2,998 3,86 3,86 2,91 2,79 3,2 Lead 2 $/lb $/tonne 2,34 2,278 2,156 2,28 2,3 2,535 2,535 2,579 2,579 1,867 2,254 2,557 Nickel 2 $/lb $/tonne 1,361 1,265 9,29 9,259 9,37 9,921 1,472 11,23 11,23 9,597 9,526 1,61 Aluminium 2 $/lb $/tonne 1,946 1,853 1,95 1,852 1,852 1,896 1,896 1,852 1,852 1,64 1,865 1,874 Molybdenum 3 $/lb Iron Ore 4 $/tonne Ene r gy #N/A WTI Crude Oil $/bbl Brent Crude Oil $/bbl Heating Oil (ULSD) $/gal Gasoline $/gal NYMEX Natural Gas $/MMBtu AECO Natural Gas $/MMBtu CAD/GJ Uranium $/lb New castle Thermal 5 $/tonne Notes: F = Forecast, E = Estimate, A = Actual; 1. London PM Fix; 2. LME; 3. Molybdenum equivalent to moly oxide, FOB USA; 4. CFR China, 62% Fe, dry; 5. Japan CIF steam coal marker-newcastle MODEL PORTFOLIO TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS ONGOING MODEL TRADES Trade Entry Date Entry Stop Current Target P/L Short Gold/Silver ratio 5 27/Jul/ % Long Platinum 3 12/May/ , % Short Aluminum 2 17/Feb/17 1,9. 1,978. 1,964. 1, % Long Oil (Brent) 1 15/Nov/ % CLOSED MODEL TRADES Trade Entry Date Entry Exit Exit Date Target P/L Short Palladium 23/Jun/ /Aug/ % Short Copper 28/Nov/16 5,881. 6,28. 25/Jul/17 5, % Long Oct 17 Gold 124 Straddle 6 3/Mar/ /Jun/ % Short Copper/Zinc ratio 17/Jan/ /Jun/ % Short Platinum/Palladium ratio 17/Jan/ /May/ % Short Gold 24/Feb/17 1,257. 1,215. 8/Mar/17 1, % Short Gold/Silver ratio 15/Nov/ /Mar/ % Long Gold 1/Dec/16 1,165. 1, /Feb/17 1, % Short Platinum/Palladium ratio 8/Sep/ /Dec/ % Short Copper 1/Nov/16 5,61. 5,85. 25/Nov/16 5, % Short Zinc 2/Sep/16 2, , /Oct/16 2, % Long Palladium 15/Aug/ /Oct/ % Notes: Spread trades P&L calculated on absolute basis; 1. Trade from the 217 Global Outlook; 2. Trade from Feb 17, 217 Chart Logic; 3. Trade from May 12, 217 Chart Logic; 4. Trade from June 23, 217 Chart Logic; 5. Trade from July 27, 217 Chart Logic; 6. Option trade from Mar 3, 217 Chart Logic, where 19.1 was the premium paid. Closed prior to expiration to preserve premium. 11

12 TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS PRICE INDEX The TD Securities Global Metals Price Index (TDGMPI) is an aggregate, weighted price measure based on a basket of spot base and precious metals. TDGMPI weights are based on the metals importance in the global economy, with USD dollar value used as a proxy. The TDGMPI encompasses nine metals. The weights are based on a rolling 5 year average contribution of each metal to the total value of global metal production. The nine metals and their current weights are: copper (26.3%), aluminum (16.6%), nickel (5.5%), zinc (4.6%), lead (4.%), gold (35.6%), silver (4.6%), platinum (2.1%) and palladium (.8%). Thus, metals which have a greater impact on the value of world metal production receive a greater weighting in the index. This index can be used as an analytical tool, mainly to track how the metals sector is performing over time, but also to compare performance of each of the individual metals and sub-sectors (precious metals, base metals) to the index as a whole. $bn TD Global Metals Price Index TD Base Metals Price Index TD Precious Metals Price Index $bn TD Global Metals Price Index (lhs) TD Base Metals Price Index (rhs) TD Precious Metals Price Index (rhs) Source: TD Securities 12

13 WEEKLY PRICE TABLE Commodity Markets-- Weekly Update Commodity 8-Aug a week ago a month ago a year ago year to date TD Global Metals Price Indices TD Global Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Precious Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Base Metals Price Index ($bn) Precious Metals Gold Spot (US$/oz.) Silver Spot (US$/oz.) Platinum Spot (US$/oz.) Palladium Spot (US$/oz.) Base Metals & Minerals Aluminum (US$/tonne) Copper (US$/tonne) Zinc (US$/tonne) Nickel (US$/tonne) Lead (US$/tonne) Molybdenum (US$/lb.) Cobalt (US$/lb) Tin (US$/lb) UxC Uranium U38 Swap (US$/lb) Bulks Thermal Coal Baltic Dry Index Energy WTI Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Brent Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Heating Oil (US$/gal.) Gasoline, RBOB (US$/gal.) NYMEX Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) AECO Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) Denatured Ethanol (US$/gal.) Softs USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat (US$/bush USDA No. 2 Yellow Corn (US$/bush) USDA No. 1 Yellow Soybeans (US$/bush) Coffee (US$/lb) Cotton (US$/lb) Lean Hogs (US$/lb) Cattle, Feeder (US$/lb) Cattle, Live (US$/lb) Equities S&P S&P TSX Composite S&P TSX Global Gold S&P TSX Global Mining S&P TSX Energy Index XAU Philly Gold & Silver Index FTSE Nikkei Currencies CAD/USD Euro/USD Japanese Yen British Pound Yuan US Trade Weighted Dollar (1973=1)

14 ETF MONITOR TABLE TD Securities: Commodities Trade Strategy - Precious Metals ETF Monitor Latest Holdings 5-Day Change 3-Day Change Year-Ago Change Last Updated Date Ounces Value ($US Millions) Ounces Value ($US Millions) Ounces Value ($US Millions) Ounces Value ($US Millions) Total GOLD ETFs 58,763,263 73,83 (15,379) (958) (1,675,187) 55 (5,12,841) (11,331) SPDR Gold Trust 8/4/217 25,37,474 31,796 (152,16) (523) (1,91,576) (1,194) (5,982,236) (9,985) ETF Securities 7/25/217 9,549,276 11,998 (8,211) (135) (98,393) 3 27,27 (477) ishares 8/4/217 6,797,591 8,54 17,827 (66) 21, (288,41) (922) ZKB 4/21/217 4,718,695 5,929 (15,963) (82) (15,963) ,33 7 Source 8/3/217 3,551,933 4,463 (182) (47) 329, ,49 7 Sprott Physical 8/3/217 1,753,826 2,23 (23) (1,565) 75 (13,391) (156) Central Fund of CA 7/24/217 1,672,644 2,11 (22) 73 (132) Xetra Gold 8/7/217 1,575,65 1,979 (21) 69 (124) Julius Baer 7/13/217 1,485,832 1,867 4 (19) (1,) 64 (22,28) (147) NewGold 7/24/217 1,87,817 1,367 (84) (14) (15,579) 29 (129,377) (259) Central Gold Trust 1/19/216 71, (841) (1) (841) 3 (3,317) (6) Royal Canadian Mint 8/7/217 3, (2) (4) (79) 13 (8,99) (36) Goldist 8/7/217 51, (1) 2 (4) Total SILVER ETFs 666,317,96 1,768 (424,294) (451) 3,21, ,639,6 (2,55) ishares 8/3/217 34,551,3 5,54 (1,181,1) (247) (1,179,8) 168 (1,263,9) (1,421) Central Fund of CA 8/7/217 75,644,12 1,222 (5) 41 (1) (271) ETF Securities 7/25/217 92,787,818 1,5 549,198 (53) 4,22, ,333, ZKB 4/21/217 72,846,568 1, ,768 (44) 252, ,947,55 (22) Sprott Physical 8/3/217 55,561,9 898 (37) (7,) 29 1,662,8 (166) Julius Baer 7/13/217 13,979, (42,) (1) 189, , (43) Claymore 8/7/217 3,373,64 55 (2) 2 (12) Silver Bullion Trust 8/7/217 2,978,23 48 (2) 2 (11) Royal Canadian Mint 8/7/217 2,73,47 44 (236) (2) (943) 1 (17,494) (1) Total PLATINUM ETFs 2,289,837 2,27 (5,553) 48 (19,156) ,513 (278) ETF Securities 7/25/ , (19,722) ,377 (49) NewPlat 8/3/ , (28) 2 15, ,511 (84) ZKB 4/21/ , (2,884) 4 (2,884) 13 5,89 (45) Swiss & Global 7/13/217 12, (83) 5 21,31 5 Source 8/3/217 7,422 7 (556) () (8,954) (8) (69,272) (81) Sprott Physical 8/7/217 37, (2,85) (1) (2,85) (4,422) (12) Deutsche Bank 8/3/217 28, (29) 2 (7,931) (14) Total PALLADIUM ETFs 1,482,619 1,293 (24,919) (44) (34,499) 17 (725,267) (236) ETF Securities 7/25/ , (233) (7) (4,965) 9 (281,94) (118) Standard Bank 4/2/ ,2 37 (6) 1, (178,982) (48) NewPall 5/19/ , (7,924) (1) (7,974) (54,48) (8) ZKB 4/21/ ,2 167 (12,21) (14) (12,21) (4) (27,627) (12) Source 8/3/217 2,521 2 () () (782) (1) (145,811) () Swiss & Global 7/13/217 93, () (1) (5,78) (2) (27,47) (1) Sprott Physical 8/7/217 85, (4,74) (5) (4,94) (1) (1,785) (5) Deutsche Bank 8/3/217 11,132 1 () (12) (7,842) () Note: Totals include more than the listed ETFs, hence do not alw ays add up, and the data updates at different, respective ETF issuer 14

15 ETF CHARTS Gold ETF Holdings Silver ETF Holdings 85 8 Total ETF Holdings (LHS) Spot Gold Price (RHS) 1,9 1,8 8 Total ETF Holdings (LHS) Spot Silver Price (RHS) , Million Ounces ,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 $UZ/Oz Million Ounces $UZ/Oz , Respectiv e ETF Issuer 1, , Respectiv e ETF Issuer 1 Platinum ETF Holdings Palladium ETF Holdings 3,5 2, 4, 1, 3, 1,8 3,5 9 Thousands Ounces 2,5 2, 1,6 1,4 1,2 $UZ/Oz Thousands Ounces 3, 2, $UZ/Oz 1,5 Total ETF Holdings (LHS ) 1, 2, Total ETF Holdings (LHS) 5 Spot Platinum Price (RHS) 1, , Respective ETF Issuer 8 Spot Palladium Price (RHS) 1, , Respectiv e ETF Issuer 4 15

16 CHART PACKAGE FORWARD CURVES 1,445 1,395 1,345 z O1,295 y ro /T 1,245 S U $ 1,195 1,145 1,95 1,45 COMEX Gold z O y 19.6 ro /T S 18.6 U $ COMEX Silver LME Copper LME Aluminum /lb S2.61 U $ /lb.83 S U.81 $ LME Nickel LME Zinc /lb S U $ /lb S1.14 U $

17 CHART PACKAGE FORWARD CURVES (CONTINUED) NYMEX WTI Crude Oil ICE Brent Crude Oil l b /b S U $ 5 45 l b 5 /b S U $ (rhs) l b /b S U $ NYMEX 2:1:1 Crack Spread tu B M 3.7 /M S U $ 2.87 NYMEX Natural Gas NYMEX Coal NYMEX Uranium n 74 o /T S U $ 64 n 25 o /T 24 S U $

18 CHART PACKAGE VOLATILITY CURVES COMEX Gold COMEX Silver 3 ) 18 l (% o V d lie p Im M13 T A ) l (% o V 25 d lie p Im M T 2 A NYMEX Platinum NYMEX Palladium 22 ) l (% o V 2 d p lie Im 18 M T A 16 ) l (% o V d 26 p lie Im M T A

19 CHART PACKAGE INDUSTRIAL METAL INVENTORIES Days Supply Aluminum Warehouse Inventories Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs) Aluminum Price (rhs) $US/lb Days Supply Copper Warehouse Inventories Inventory at LME, SHFE, COMEX (lhs) Copper Price (rhs) $US/lb Lead Warehouse Inventories Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs) Lead Price (rhs) Nickel Warehouse Inventories Inventory at LME (lhs) Nickel Price (rhs) Days Supply $US/lb Days Supply $US/lb Days Supply Zinc Warehouse Inventories Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs) Zinc Price (rhs) $US/lb

20 CHART PACKAGE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES 59 U.S. Crude Oil Inventory 27 Gasoline Inventory MMbbl MMbbl Oct-28 Nov-25 Dec-23 Jan-2 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-12 Jun-9 Jul-7 Aug-4 Sep-1 Sep-29 Oct-27 Nov-24 Dec Oct-28 Nov-25 Dec-23 Jan-2 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-12 Jun-9 Jul-7 Aug-4 Sep-1 Sep-29 Oct-27 Nov-24 Dec-22 Prior 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities Prior 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities 75 Crude Oil Inventory at Cushing, OK 18 Heating Oil (ULSD) Inventory MMbbl Oct-28 Nov-25 Dec-23 Jan-2 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-12 Jun-9 Jul-7 Aug-4 Sep-1 Sep-29 Oct-27 Nov-24 Dec-22 MMbbl Oct-28 Nov-25 Dec-23 Jan-2 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-12 Jun-9 Jul-7 Aug-4 Sep-1 Sep-29 Oct-27 Nov-24 Dec-22 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities Prior 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities Operating Capacity Utilization (%) Refinery Utilization 1.% 95.% 9.% 85.% 8.% 75.% Oct-28 Nov-25 Dec-23 Jan-2 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-12 Jun-9 Jul-7 Aug-4 Sep-1 Sep-29 Oct-27 Nov-24 Dec-22 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities Storage (Bcf) US Natural Gas Storage Level 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 3,1 Bcf 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5yr Range 5yr Avg /Dec 27/Jan 24/Feb 24/Mar 21/Apr 19/May 16/Jun 14/Jul 11/Aug 8/Sep 6/Oct 3/Nov 1/Dec 29/Dec Source: EIA, TD Securities 2

21 CHART PACKAGE COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS Net Contracts 4, COMEX Gold $UD/oz 1,7 Net Contracts 12, COMEX Silver $UD/oz 35 35, 3, 25, 2, 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1, 8, 6, , 1, 5, 1,2 1,1 1, 4, 2, Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 1 Gold Net Spec Position (lhs) Gold Price (rhs) Silver Net Spec Position (lhs) Silver Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Net Contracts NYMEX Platinum $UD/oz 6, 1,8 1,7 5, 1,6 1,5 4, 1,4 3, 1,3 1,2 2, 1,1 1, 1, 9-8 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Platinum Net Spec Position (lhs) Platinum Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Net Contracts COMEX Copper $UD/lb 8, 43 6, 38 4, 2, (2,) 23 (4,) (6,) 18 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Copper Net Spec Position (lhs) Copper Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Net Contracts NYMEX Palladium $UD/oz 35, 1, 3, 9 25, 8 2, 7 15, 6 1, 5, 5-4 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Palladium Net Spec Position (lhs) Palladium Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Net Contracts NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas $UD/MMbtu 6, 6.5 5, , 5. 3, 4.5 2, 4. 1, (1,) 2. (2,) 1.5 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Natural Gas Net Spec Position (lhs) Natural Gas Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities 21

22 CHART PACKAGE COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS Net Contracts NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil $UD/bbl 7, , 1 5, 9 4, 8 7 3, 6 2, 5 4 1, 3-2 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 WTI Net Spec Position (lhs) WTI Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Net Contracts NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil $UD/bbl 35, , , 8 5, 7 6 (5,) 5 4 (15,) 3 (25,) 2 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Brent Net Spec Position (lhs) Brent Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Net Contracts 12, NYMEX Gasoline $UD/gal 35 Net Contracts 6, NYMEX Heating Oil $UD/gal 1, 3 4, 29 8, 25 2, 24 6, 4, (2,) 19 2, 1 (4,) 14 - Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 5 (6,) Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 9 Gasoline Net Spec Position (lhs) Gasoline Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Heating Oil Net Spec Position (lhs) Heating Oil Price (rhs) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities Net Contracts LME Copper $UD/MT Net Contracts LME Aluminum $UD/MT Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Copper Net Spec Position (lhs) Copper Price (rhs) Al Net Spec Position (lhs) Aluminium Price (rhs) 22

23 CHART PACKAGE COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS Net Contracts LME Nickel $UD/MT Net Contracts LME Zinc $UD/MT Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nickel Net Spec Position (lhs) Nickel Price (rhs) Zinc Net Spec Position (lhs) Zinc Price (rhs) Net Contracts LME Lead $UD/MT Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Lead Net Spec Position (lhs) Lead Price (rhs) COMMODITIES RESEARCH TEAM: Bart Melek Global Head of Commodity Strategy bart.melek@tdsecurities.com Ryan McKay Commodity Strategist ryan.mckay@tdsecurities.com Daniel Ghali Commodity Strategist daniel.ghali@tdsecurities.com

24 GLOBAL STRATEGY TEAM Global Strategy Richard Kelly Head of Global Strategy Commodities Strategy Bart Melek Global Head of Commodity Strategy Ryan McKay Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali Commodity Strategist Global Macro Strategy Annette Beacher Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist Jacqui Douglas Chief European Macro Strategist James Rossiter Senior Global Strategist Brittany Bauman Macro Strategist Robert Both Macro Strategist Global Rates Strategy Priya Misra Head of Global Rates Strategy Gennadiy Goldberg US Rates Strategist Cheng Chen US Rates Strategist Andrew Kelvin Canada Rates Strategist Prash Newnaha Asia/Pac Rates Strategist Global Strategy USA Canada Australia New Zealand UK Europe Emerging Markets FX & Commodities FX Strategy Ned Rumpeltin European Head of FX Strategy Mark McCormick North American Head of FX Strategy Mazen Issa Senior FX Strategist Emerging Markets Strategy Cristian Maggio Head of Emerging Markets Strategy Paul Fage Senior Emerging Markets Strategist Sacha Tihanyi Senior Emerging Markets Strategist Global Disclaimer TD Securities is a trademark of TD Bank and represents TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC and TD Securities Limited and certain investment and corporate banking activities of TD Bank and its subsidiaries. Copyright 215 The Toronto-Dominion Bank. All rights reserved. 24