Commodities Comment. China copper survey: demand remains robust GLOBAL. Feature article. Latest news
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- Ashlie Brooks
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1 GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1, Copper 4, Lead 2, Nickel 1, Tin 2, Zinc 2, Cobalt 28,648.5 Molybdenum 14,828. Other prices % change day on day Gold (US$/oz) 1,269.3 Silver (US$/oz) Platinum (US$/oz) Palladium (US$/oz) Oil WTI USD:EUR exchange rate AUD:USD exchange rate LME/COMEX stocks Tonnes Change Aluminium 2,159,95-22,325 LME copper 338,8-1,15 Comex copper 66,53 66 Lead 188,625-3 Nickel 362, Tin 2, Zinc 452,975-1,125 Source: LME, Comex, Nymex, SHFE, Metal Bulletin, Reuters, LBMA, Macquarie Research, October October 216 China copper survey: demand remains robust Feature article Chinese industry players showed a generally positive attitude toward the outlook for the copper market over the next three months in our latest survey results, which showed some mild positivity. End-user demand for copper improved for the second month, although copper fabricators capacity utilisation rates have not yet shown much of a pick-up. Both fabricators and traders expressed intentions to build refined copper inventory over the next month, and smelters are set to see lower output next month after lifting it this month. Copper smelters seem to be restocking raw materials, which should be positive for the concentrate market. Our proprietary copper survey, first published in July 212, incorporates interviews with smelters, traders and fabricators who are active in the Chinese market. Respondents cover a range of volumes and industry applications to give a representative view of the entire copper value chain. Latest news Metal prices made further broad-based gains spurred by Chinese buying on Tuesday, with gains of more than 2% DoD for zinc, aluminium, copper and palladium. For most base metals these were the highest prices since mid- or early-october, and in the case of tin a 1.7% gain saw it close at its highest price since December 214. Also outperforming was iron ore (62%Fe), rising 4.9% to $61.6/t CFR China, its highest since mid-august 216. Anglo American reported its 4Q production results on Tuesday, with a strong recovery at the Sishen mine leading to iron ore output 9% above our estimate and +33% QoQ for Kumba operations. Platinum output also came in ahead of expectations (although 4Q is expected to be weak with the furnace rebuild at Waterval); however, met coal missed following geological issues at Grasstree. As a result, FY16 met coal guidance has been reduced by ~2%. Meanwhile, Anglo s copper output disappointed, with Los Bronces seeing lower output due to strike activity and the after effects of the severe weather seen in 2Q, but guidance was retained at 57 6kt for 216. In addition, Freeport s 3Q released on Tuesday revealed another tough quarter for the Grasberg copper mine, which saw guidance slide again by ~45kt to 544kt (FCX share) on labour action, lower mining rates and lower grades being processed than planned. This follows Escondida s striking 3Q miss reported last week (14kt Cu-in-conc vs our ~21kt) and lower figures for Bingham Canyon and others, to mean that annualised mine disruption has picked up to 4.1% now running ahead of our deployed rate of 4.% for the first time YTD. Latest data has confirmed the divergent trends in steel production in the two largest economies. Crude steel output at China Iron & Steel Association member mills (representing the vast majority of China s steel output) rose 1.3% sequentially over the first ten days of October. At 636mtpa, output was up 4% over the equivalent period in 215. In contrast, US crude steel output last week was just 75.3mtpa, according to latest AISI data, down 4% over the equivalent week last year. US capacity utilisation has now been below 7% for seven consecutive weeks, the longest period since early-21. Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Jan-14 May-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 May-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 China copper survey: demand remains robust Sentiment generally positive for the copper market: Chinese industry players showed a generally positive attitude toward the outlook for the copper market over the next three months in our latest survey results, which showed some mild positivity. End-user demand for copper improved for the second month, although the capacity utilisation rate for copper fabricators has not yet shown much of a pick-up. Both fabricators and traders expressed intentions to build refined copper inventory over the next month, and smelters are set to see lower output next month after lifting it this month. Copper smelters seem to be restocking raw materials, which should be positive for the concentrate market. Fig 1 Sentiment toward copper has improved from the previous month Are you positive or negative on the market over the next three months? Increasing number of respondents positive Copper Smelters Copper Traders Copper Fabricators Increasing number of respondents negative Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Fabricators sales improved thanks to white goods-led end-user demand growth: Sales from copper fabricators increased for the second consecutive month, led by a pick-up in orders from the white goods and machinery sectors, which is in line with the strong growth in YoY air-conditioner output in August and September (Fig 4), following on from the surge in new housing sales since the start of the year. Orders from the transportation sector also showed steady growth, thanks to robust auto sales, but we noticed that orders from the power sector dropped slightly MoM for the first time this year, suggesting a pause in power grid spending momentum. Fig 2 Copper fabricators sales continued to see improvement in orders over the past month Fig 3 Orders from white goods, machinery and transportation sectors all climbed MoM Have sales increased or decreased over the last month? Increasing no. of fabricators seeing sales rise Increasing no. of fabricators seeing sales fall Net change in orders at copper fabricators - end use sectors Power White goods Construction Transportation Machinery Others Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Source: Macquarie Research, October October 216 2
3 Fabricators maintained a stable capacity utilisation rate: Despite the rise in sales, fabricators reported a stable capacity utilisation rate in October compared with September, and the utilisation rate is almost flat YoY. This transferred to no increase in copper smelters domestic sales for the past month (Fig 6). Looking forward, however, fabricators still have intentions to raise production after two months of order improvement, based on our survey, and we believe that should help to drive up sales for copper smelters. Fig 4 The sectoral difference in end-user copper demand is in line with official statistics Fig 5 However, fabricators capacity utilisation rate is flat MoM and YoY 6% 4% China grid investment, consumer product output & construction starts YoY % MAs Grid investment, 3mma YoY Refrigerator output, 3mma YoY AC generator output, 3mma YoY AC output, 3mma YoY Construction completions, 5mma YoY 94% 92% 9% 88% Copper fabricators capacity utilisationr rate 2% 86% % 84% 82% -2% 8% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -4% Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul Source: CEIC, NBS, Macquarie Research, October 216 Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Fig 6 Smelters reported no increase in their domestic orders over the past month Have domestic orders increased or decreased? Fig 7 but the expectation that smelters production may rise should help to drive up smelters orders Do you expect production to increase or decrease? Increasing no. of smelters seeing orders increase Increasing no. of smelters seeing orders decrease Increasing no. of fabricators expecting output to rise Increasing no. of fabricators expecting output to fall Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Both fabricators and traders showed restocking interest for refined copper: Apart from possible higher production from copper fabricators, another demand increment for refined copper could come from restocking demand from both fabricators and traders. Current domestic warehouse copper inventory is still near its yearly low after some inventory building during the week-long October holiday (Fig 1), and in addition the domestic physical copper premium has risen from Rmb1 15/t at end-september to Rmb23 28/t this week, which is the highest this year (Fig11), suggesting restocking activities may be underway. 25 October 216 3
4 Jan-15 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Fig 8 Copper fabricators showed interest in restocking refined copper Fig 9 Traders also plan to raise copper inventory over the next month Do you plan to increase or decrease refined copper inventory? Increase inventory fabricators Decrease inventory Do you plan to increase or decrease inventory next month? Increasing no. of traders planning to build inventory Increasi Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Fig 1 China SHFE and bonded warehouse copper inventory at lowest levels since the new year Fig 11 On-shore physical premium jumped in October after a stable September kt SHFE non-bonded warehouse copper inventory 1 China bonded warehouse copper inventory Rmb/t China domestic copper premium Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Source: SMM, Macquarie Research, October 216 For copper, the major concern remains on the supply side: Although demand looks healthy, the major concern for the copper market remains on the supply side. Smelters in our survey reported a higher capacity utilisation rate in October compared with September, despite flat orders over the same period. The capacity utilisation rate is much higher than the same month last year, and this is in line with monthly China refined copper production data that shows good increases YoY this year. The positive feedback is that smelters in our survey expect production to be lower over the next month, although they should remain profitable under the current TCRC. 25 October 216 4
5 Fig 12 Copper smelters lifted capacity utilisation rate in October Fig 13 But they expect production to be lower in the coming month 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% What is your current level of capacity utilisation? 94% 92% 9% 88% 86% 84% 82% 8% 78% 76% 74% What is your current capacity utilisation rate (one month lag) 9 How do you expect production to change over the next month? Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Source: NBS, Macquarie Research, October 216 Smelters seem to be restocking concentrate amid stable spot TCRC: On the raw material side, copper smelters concentrate inventory has been increasing, according to our survey. We understand from the market that there has been increased demand from smelters located in north China for winter restocking, and spot TCRCs failed to rise further in 3Q and early-q4 as the market expected, suggesting the concentrate market balance did not soften in 2H this year. Given we are approaching contract negotiations for next year s benchmark, this is less supportive for buyers hoping to gain an increase in TCRCs from the current spot terms. Fig 14 Smelters concentrate inventory seems to be rising Fig 15 and they plan to increase concentrate purchases over the next month Is copper conc inventory rising or falling? Increasing no. of smelters with falling inventory Increasing no. of smelters with rising inventory Do you plan to increase copper conc purchases? Increasing no. of smelters planning to increase purchases Increasing no. of smelters planning to decrease purchases Source: Macquarie Research, October 216 Source: Macquarie Research, October October 216 5
6 Tuesday 25 October 216 Prices Closing price * Closing price * 25-Oct Oct Oct Oct-16 % ch. day 216 YTD Ave 215 US$/tonne US /lb US$/tonne US /lb on day US$/tonne US$/tonne LME Cash Aluminium 1, , ,577 1,661 Aluminium Alloy 1, , ,555 1,724 NAASAC 1, , ,71 1,767 Copper 4, , ,725 5,495 Lead 2, , ,81 1,784 Nickel 1, , ,296 11,87 Tin 2, , ,291 16,7 Zinc 2, , ,983 1,928 Cobalt 28,648 1,299 28,5 1, ,598 28,613 Molybdenum 14, , ,275 14,837 LME 3 Month Aluminium 1, , ,576 1,68 Aluminium Alloy 1, , ,579 1,736 NAASAC 1, , ,723 1,79 Copper 4, , ,73 5,487 Lead 2, , ,796 1,793 Nickel 1, , ,29 11,858 Tin 2, , ,121 16,3 Zinc 2, , ,977 1,939 Cobalt 28,65 1,3 28,5 1, ,718 28,72 Molybdenum 15, 68 15, ,299 14,87 * LME 2nd ring price - 17 hrs London time. Year-to-date averages calculated from official fixes. Gold - LBMA Gold Price (US$/oz) Silver - LBMA Silver Price (US$/oz) Platinum - London 3pm price (US$/oz) Palladium - London 3pm price (US$/oz) Oil WTI - NYMEX latest (US$/bbl) EUR : USD exchange rate - latest AUD : USD exchange rate - latest 1,269 1, ,26 1, , Exchange Stocks Change since last report Cancelled End-15 Ch. since (tonnes) 25-Oct Oct-16 Volume Percent warrants stocks end-15 LME Aluminium 2,159,95 2,182,275-22,325-1.% 793, 2,889,55-729,6 Shanghai Aluminium 84,981 84,981.% 297,37-212,56 Aluminium 2,244,931 2,267,256-22,325-1.% 793, 3,186, ,656 LME Copper 338,8 339,95-1,15 -.3% 13, ,225 12,575 Comex Copper 66,53 65, % - 64,184 2,346 Shanghai Copper 117, ,634.% - 177,854-6,22 Copper 522, , % 13, ,263 44,71 LME Zinc 452, ,1-1, % 63, ,4-11,425 Shanghai Zinc 165, ,295.% - 2,428-35,133 Zinc 618,27 619,395-1, % 63, ,828-46,558 LME Lead 188, , % 33,4 191,65-3,25 Shanghai Lead 32,538 32,538.% - 12,74 2,464 Lead 221, , % 33,4 23,724 17,439 Aluminium Alloy 13,68 13,68.% 2 15,14-1,46 NASAAC 77,56 77,48 8.1% 6 47,6 3,5 Nickel 362, , % 124, ,342-78,918 Tin 2,935 2, % 1,85 6,14-3,25 Source: CME, LBMA, LME, Reuters, SHFE, Macquarie Research 25 October 216 6
7 This publication was disseminated on 25 October 216 at 18:4 UTC. Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. 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Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 3 September 216 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 47.26% 55.5% 38.46% 45.47% 59.9% 48.21% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.2% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 38.1% 29.31% 42.86% 48.77% 37.88% 36.79% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.25% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 14.73% 15.19% 18.68% 5.76% 3.3% 15.% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN , AFSL , a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN AFSL ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. 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The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Macquarie Group 25 October 216 7
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More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationCommodities Comment. And another one gone and another gone...cu supply wobbling on cuts GLOBAL. Latest news
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,58 -.4 Copper 5,163.6 Lead 1,656.2 Nickel 9,727-2. Tin 15,158 -.4 Zinc 1,766 -.8 Cobalt 27,19-1.8 Molybdenum 12,836. Other prices % change
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationCommodities Comment. Four for Friday: coal chaos; quick March PMIs; zinc cuts; China builds new city on rock and coal GLOBAL.
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,947 0.4 Copper 5,799-0.5 Lead 2,245-1.8 Nickel 10,123 1.0 Tin 20,269-0.5 Zinc 2,663-1.4 Cobalt 55,500-0.4 Molybdenum 14,900 0.0 Other prices
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationUS Economics. State of the Union Growth, rates, and equities NORTH AMERICA. In a nutshell. Our key views on growth, policy, and rates
NORTH AMERICA In a nutshell The US expansion is poised to continue Near-term data may surprise on the upside and show an economy expanding at an underlying 2.5% pace Longer-term growth should decelerate
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationCommodities Comment. The 2017 battery metal story might well be cobalt GLOBAL. Feature article. Latest news
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,813-0.4 Copper 5,780-1.0 Lead 2,344-0.3 Nickel 10,300-0.9 Tin 18,894-1.5 Zinc 2,794 0.1 Cobalt 38,250 1.3 Molybdenum 14,896 0.0 Other prices
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationCommodities Comment. Solving the met coal problem GLOBAL. Latest news
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,926-0.8 Copper 5,753 0.4 Lead 2,297 0.9 Nickel 9,915 1.3 Tin 20,049-0.2 Zinc 2,709 1.0 Cobalt 55,750 0.0 Molybdenum 14,896 0.0 Other prices
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationCommodities Comment. Zinc market update: reflections on Palm Springs GLOBAL. Latest news. 28 February 2012
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US /lb day on day Aluminium 104 0.1 Copper 388 0.0 Lead 101 1.8 Nickel 910-0.1 Tin 1074-0.6 Zinc 95 0.8 Cobalt 1417 0.0 Molybdenum 1440-1.6 Other prices % change day on day
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationAustralia without mining
AUSTRALIA What would happen if iron ore spot prices remained at current levels? USD/tonne 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 Iron ore Spot Price 5 Aug-9 Oct-1 Dec-11 Feb-13 Source; ABS, Macquarie Research, September 1
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationJB Hi-Fi & Harvey Norman
AUSTRALIA HVN AU Price (at 06:10, 09 Sep 2015 GMT) Underperform A$3.96 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 4.16-4.56 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index Low Market cap A$m 4,523 30-day avg
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationAventus Retail Property Fund
AUSTRALIA AVN AU Price (at 06:10, 29 Apr 2016 GMT) A$2.16 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 741 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.7 Number shares on issue m 343.2 Investment fundamentals
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationBillabong International
AUSTRALIA BBG AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Aug 2012 GMT) A$1.35 Volatility index Very High GICS sector Consumer Durables & Apparel Market cap A$m 644 30-day avg turnover A$m 4.4 Number shares on issue m 478.9
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More informationEuropean and UK economics
EUROPE/UNITED KINGDOM To all intents and purposes the Euro area is in recession QoQ % Euro area GDP QoQ (LHS) YoY % Euro area GDP YoY (RHS) 6 3 1-1 - - - -3 Jun Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 1 Source: Eurostat,
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationAustal. Retail take up 62% Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ASB AU Price (at 01:41, 02 Jan 2013 GMT) A$0.58 Volatility index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 201 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.3 Number shares on issue m 346.0 Investment fundamentals
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationMMG. A year of consolidation in 2017 AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG AU / 128 HK Outperform Price (at 4:, 13 Mar 217 GMT) A$4.9/HK$2.85 Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.%, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$4.86/HK$2.85 12-month target A$5.5/HK$3.2 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More information