JB Hi-Fi & Harvey Norman
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- Dominick Freeman
- 5 years ago
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1 AUSTRALIA HVN AU Price (at 06:10, 09 Sep 2015 GMT) Underperform A$3.96 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low Market cap A$m 4, day avg turnover A$m 18.6 Number shares on issue m 1,111 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue m 1, , , ,819.5 EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x JBH AU Price (at 06:10, 09 Sep 2015 GMT) Neutral A$18.28 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low/Medium Market cap A$m 1, day avg turnover A$m 25.1 Number shares on issue m Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue m 3, , , ,266.0 EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x September 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited AUD dials up sales growth Event We have analysed the impact on electronic retailers (JBH, HVN) of Apple s latest flagship products Smartphones (iphone 6s and iphone 6s+). Both products will be available in Australia from 25 th September. Impact +20% currency driven ASP increase to boost sales for retailers. While the lack of major upgrades and currency-driven price increases across electronics are likely to reduce volumes we expect that the decline will be more than offset by the increase in ASP with expectations that value across Smartphones can increase ~5-10% in 2H15. Price: The iphone 6s will be priced at a premium of ~22-24% compared with the iphone 6 at its release date in Sep 2014 as a direct result of the depreciation of the AUD/USD. We note the iphone 6 has already been repriced by 15% over the year following the launch in Sep The iphone 6s is priced at a ~6-8% premium to the current iphone 6 price. Volume: Prior to the release of the details around the new iphones, consumer electronics research firm, Telsyte, predicted a ~10% decline in 2H15 in volumes vs pcp across the smartphone category as a result of a combination of increased prices and declining repeat purchases due to less material incremental changes to existing phones. iphone price movements a direct result of currency RRP at release date ($) 1,600 1,400 1, G Jul 08 Source: Macquarie Research, September 2015 Mix shift from outright to plan margin-accretive for retailers. As prices increase across the Smartphone category, the relative value of plans increases for consumers, given the large initial outlay needed. This will benefit retailers such as JBH and HVN as it is more GP-accretive than selling outright. Outlook Avg. USD/AUD over release month Cheapest model ~22-24% increase in Most expensive model RRP driven by currency 3Gs Jun 09 4 Jul 10 4s Oct 11 5 Sep 12 5s Sep 13 6 Sep 14 6s Sep 15 USD/AUD While the net benefit to electronics retailers from the release of the latest iphone will not be as pronounced as last year, value growth is still expected across the category in 2H15 as the expected decline in volumes will likely be more than offset by the increase in the currency driven ASP. This will be GPaccretive for electronics retailers, JBH and HVN. Please refer to page 6 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Read-through from US Tech analyst Product review from our US Tech analyst, Ben Schachter: Overall, more disappointments than positive surprises, but nothing game-changing. We are lowering AAPL FY 16 revenue and EPS estimates by 3%. In the near term, the stock will have trouble getting past the tough iphone comp issue. However, longer-term, we continue to believe that the app ecosystem, smartphone dominance, & innovative new devices in the pipeline should be compelling (based on AAPL s track record). As for today s event: Positives: iphone: New direct leasing program interesting, 3D touch adds unique functionality, Live Photos. Apple TV: TV specific App Store, Siri integration, touch and motion reactive remote, potential for casual games (LT potential for cloud-based core gaming). ipad: ipad Pro size and functionality. Higher-than-expected price point will increase overall ipad ASP (though will limit volume). Focus on enterprise and creative. Keyboard accessory. Pencil may be useful for certain users. Apple Watch: Incremental changes. New OS, new apps, and new styles. Other: ios 9 improved Siri functionality. We are quite bullish on voice UI. Negatives: iphone: Solid improvements, but not as impactful as last year s increased size. Apple TV: Interesting, but not revolutionary. Casual gaming potential, but initial titles relatively weak (not going to challenge PS4/XB1 anytime soon). Remote is biggest improvement, but copies elements from AMZN Fire TV and NTDOY Wii. No bundle, no must-have app, high price point, No AMZN video. ipad: High ipad Pro price point. No improvements for other ipads. Apple Watch: Still don t see must-have use cases. Other: Apple Music still doesn t matter for the stock. No updates on Apple Pay. Relatively unenthusiastic press response. No China-specific update. As expected, nothing new on Macs or VR/AR. ATVI mentioned only in passing (Guitar Hero) and nothing from EA. A full copy of the report is available here: Apple - iphone Comp the Issue for the Stock Australian market read-throughs The iphone 6s will be priced at a premium of ~22-24% compared with the iphone 6 at its release date in Sep 2014 as a direct result of the depreciation of the AUD/USD. We note the iphone 6 has already been repriced by 15% over the year following the launch in Sep The iphone 6s is priced at a ~6-8% premium to the current iphone 6 price. Fig 1 iphone prices have remained relatively stable with movement coming directly as a result of changes to currency RRP at release date ($) 1,600 1,400 1, G Jul 08 Avg. USD/AUD over release month Cheapest model ~22-24% increase in Most expensive model RRP driven by currency 3Gs Jun 09 4 Jul 10 4s Oct 11 5 Sep 12 5s Sep 13 6 Sep 14 6s Sep 15 USD/AUD Source: Macquarie Research, September September
3 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May- Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May- Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Macquarie Wealth Management The price of the iphone 6 released in September 2014 has increased ~15% over the last 12 months as a direct result of currency movements. At current prices the iphone 6s is ~6-8% more expensive than its predecessor iphone 6, $1,079 - $1,529 vs $999 - $1,449. Fig 2 iphone 6 price has increased ~15% over last 12 months as a direct result of currency movements Fig 3 At current prices, the iphone 6s is ~6-8% more expensive than the iphone 6 RRP ($) 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1, iphone 6 (at release date) iphone 6 (current) 1,529 iphone 6s 1,448 1,379 1,379 1,296 1,296 1,229 1,229 1,249 1,149 1,129 1,149 1,129 1, GB 64GB 128GB Plus 16GB Plus 64GB Plus 128GB Change AUD (%) 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 8.0% 24.2% iphone 6s (Sep 15) vs. iphone 6 (Sep 15) iphone 6s (Sep 15) vs. iphone 6 (Sep 15) iphone 6s (Sep 15) vs. iphone 6 (Sep 14) 23.0% 22.1% 23.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8% 15.0% 14.8% 7.0% 6.4% 7.0% 6.4% 22.1% 22.4% 5.6% 15.9% 16GB 64GB 128GB Plus 16GB Plus 64GB Plus 128GB Source: Macquarie Research, September 2015 Source: Macquarie Research, September 2015 While a drop-off in value across telecommunications is expected post the release of a product upgrade, the value of imports in the telecommunications space has remained strong post the release of the iphone 6 in September This is representative of the strong sales growth reported by the electronic retailers over that period in the telecommunications space. Fig 4 Import data shows the impact that the iphone 6 had on the telecommunications with overall value levels remaining strong in the months post release Customs value ($m) 3,500 Telecomunication imports (inc. parts) - Rolling 3m iphone 6 3,000 iphone 5 iphone 4S iphone 5C & 5S 2,500 2,000 iphone 3G iphone 3GS iphone 4 1,500 Notes: 1. The red bars correspond with the timing of an iphone launch. Source: ABS, Macquarie Research, September September
4 The specific Australian release dates, prices and telecommunications import activity data for iphone 6s predecessors is presented in the table below. Fig 5 iphone model Smartphone releases pre-christmas have rebased sales expectations Australian release date Price at launch (AUD) Monthly 1 telecom (inc. parts) imports YoY 3M 2 telecom (inc. Parts) imports YoY 12M 3 telecom (inc. Parts) imports YoY 3G 11-Jul % 3.0% 8.3% 3GS 26-Jun , % 5.3% -5.3% 4 30-Jul % 11.7% 14.7% 4S 14-Oct % 18.0% 14.1% 5 21-Sep % 8.9% 1.0% 5C & 5S 20-Sep-13 5S: 869-1,129 5C: % -4.5% 1.6% 6 & Sep-14 6: 869-1,129 6+: 999-1, % 22.0% 25.3% 6S & 6S+ 25-Sep-15 6s: s+: n/a n/a n/a Notes: 1. Month of iphone release. 2. Month of iphone release and 2 months after. 3. Month of iphone release and 11 months after. Source: ABS, Macquarie Research, September 2015 The telecommunications category has experienced strong growth of >20% over the 6 months to June 2015, while the overall electronics industry in Australia has increased ~8.5% over the same period. Fig 6 Telecommunications grew at +27.4% in the June quarter according to GfK data Growth YoY (%) 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% Teleco Total consumer electronics 24.6% 27.4% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 9.9% 11.5% 7.9% 0.0% (5.0%) 1.1% 2.9% (1.8%) 1.6% (4.6%) (10.0%) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Source: GfK, Macquarie Research, September September
5 The recent strength across telecommunications relative to other categories has increased its share of overall electronics in Australia from ~23% to ~30% over the last 3 years. Fig 7 Telecomms have increased market share from 23% to 30% over the last 3 years Implied market share (%) 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Office Equipment & Consumables (OE) Information Techonology (IT) Major Domestic Appliances (MDA) Consumer Electronics (CE) 26% 23% 24% 27% 26% 26% 25% 27% 27% 26% 27% 30% 31% 30% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Source: GfK, Macquarie Research, September 2015 Telecommunication (TC) Small Domestic Appliances (SDA) Photography (PH) 10 September
6 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2015 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 46.23% 58.36% 47.27% 44.20% 60.65% 43.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 37.67% 25.65% 29.09% 49.29% 34.19% 40.93% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.53% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.10% 15.99% 23.64% 6.52% 5.16% 16.06% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 1.38% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) HVN AU vs ASX 100, & rec history JBH AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September month target price methodology HVN AU: A$4.36 based on a Sum of Parts methodology JBH AU: A$21.26 based on a EV/EBIT methodology Company-specific disclosures: JBH AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of JB Hi-Fi Limited's equity securities. MACQUARIE SECURITIES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of JB Hi Fi Ltd in the past 24 months, for which it received compensation. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Target price risk disclosures: HVN AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. JBH AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. 10 September
7 None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Macquarie Group 10 September
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AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
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AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Insolent Insolvencies
AUSTRALIA Insolvencies Stubborn # of Insolvencies 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Source: ASIC, Macquarie Research, Dec 212 WA/VIC insolvencies deterioration 2.4 2.2 Jan- 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Source: ASIC,
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAventus Retail Property Fund
AUSTRALIA AVN AU Price (at 06:10, 29 Apr 2016 GMT) A$2.16 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 741 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.7 Number shares on issue m 343.2 Investment fundamentals
More informationBuilders Barometer. Rising damp AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
Jan 00 Mar 01 May 02 Jul 03 Sep 04 Nov 05 Jan 07 Mar 08 May 09 Jul 10 Sep 11 Nov 12 Jan 14 Mar 15 May 16 AUSTRALIA Rising damp Event The ABS released February 2017 building approvals data. Seasonallyadjusted,
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT All about spread Event
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 04:51, 14 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.60 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.18-1.26 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +5.1 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationBillabong International
AUSTRALIA BBG AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Aug 2012 GMT) A$1.35 Volatility index Very High GICS sector Consumer Durables & Apparel Market cap A$m 644 30-day avg turnover A$m 4.4 Number shares on issue m 478.9
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationAustal. Retail take up 62% Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ASB AU Price (at 01:41, 02 Jan 2013 GMT) A$0.58 Volatility index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 201 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.3 Number shares on issue m 346.0 Investment fundamentals
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationUS Economics. State of the Union Growth, rates, and equities NORTH AMERICA. In a nutshell. Our key views on growth, policy, and rates
NORTH AMERICA In a nutshell The US expansion is poised to continue Near-term data may surprise on the upside and show an economy expanding at an underlying 2.5% pace Longer-term growth should decelerate
More informationCSL: Global plasma report
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:49, 11 Apr 2013 GMT) Outperform A$59.35 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 63.85 12-month TSR % +9.6 Valuation A$ 59.84 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.0%, TGR
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationTatts Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Underperform on valuation grounds.
AUSTRALIA TTS AU Price (at 8:37, 23 Aug 212 GMT) Underperform A$2.79 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.45 12-month TSR % -6.8 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.4-2.47 GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationFairfax / REA Group. No housing boom here. A$0.81 Valuation A$ Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ month TSR % +16.0
AUSTRALIA FXJ AU Price (at 05:11, 03 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$0.81 Valuation A$ 0.88 - Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ 0.90 12-month TSR % +16.0 Volatility Index Low/Medium Market cap A$m 1,863 30-day
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationThe quiet achiever. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: July building approvals 30 August. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 08:02, 16 Aug 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.90 Volatility index Low/Medium 12-month target A$ 3.10 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ 3.18 - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 4.5%, RFR
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 13:07, 19 Apr 2012 GMT) Outperform A$3.39 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 3.55 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 0.9, ERP 6.0%, TGR 1.0%) 3.55
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More informationAsaleo Care. NZ$ pulped. We review the outlook for Asaleo. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: CY15 results.
AUSTRALIA AHY AU Price (at 06:10, 16 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.80 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 1.90-2.00 12-month target A$ 2.00 12-month TSR % +16.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Household & Personal
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at 07:11, 11 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$12.00 Valuation A$ 12.03 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.2%) 12-month target A$ 12.98 12-month TSR % +12.8 Volatility
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationSeek. SEEKing to evolve A$17.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 12:41, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$17.10 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 18.03 12-month target A$ 18.10 12-month TSR % +8.5 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationCrown Resorts. A favourable risk/reward setting A$12.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA CWN AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$12.94 Valuation A$ 18.52 - DCF (WACC 8.6%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.) 12-month target A$ 16.20 12-month TSR % +28.1 Volatility Index
More informationFilling in the gaps. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PGH AU Price (at 06:11, 16 Jun 2015 GMT) Neutral A$4.45 Valuation - Peers' Multiples A$ 4.70 12-month target A$ 4.70 12-month TSR % +10.3 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Materials Market cap
More informationNine Entertainment Co.
AUSTRALIA NEC AU Price (at 06:47, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.03 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 2.41 12-month target A$ 2.25 12-month TSR % +15.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More information