Origin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.

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1 AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Energy Market cap A$m 12, day avg turnover A$m 36.7 Number shares on issue m 1,110 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue m 14,518 13,951 14,450 14,737 EBIT m 1,362 1,264 1,679 2,186 EBIT growth % Reported profit m ,133 Adjusted profit m ,133 Gross cashflow m 1,560 1,548 1,564 2,007 CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x ORG AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2015 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 31 July 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited 4Q Production Event ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result. Impact APLNG is nearing completion (~95%) with the first cargo expected in the Dec quarter. Whilst the timeline for start-up has not changed, APLNG has tightened up on the pace of the drilling program, with only 41 wells (normally 100 per quarter). Impact is capex at APLNG is lower, thus reducing ORG s investment to $0.7bn (MRE $1.1bn for 2H15). This lower spend is temporary with drilling needing to normalise as APLNG starts up. Impact of ramp gas plus lower oillinked contracts saw average pricing drop to $2.38/GJ. Reserves downgrade reflects a variety of issues from lower oil price, thus a tightened development program (Cooper), through to disappointing results at Bassgas. The later will see a ~$125m write-down. Otway downgrade was mitigated by the Speculant drilling program. Possibly of more interest is the 6% downgrade of APLNG 3P and 3P+2C reserves, reflecting low permeability. This also impacted Ironbark. Impact is APLNG headroom over forward sales is reduced and highlights further development work and possibly highlights a broader industry risk. At this stage we expect development work will be deferred until APLNG is operational given the head room. ORG 4 th quarter production was in line with expectation at 20.5PJe, whilst revenue was ~$4m better at $166m. Average price at $5.63/GJ highlights the broader benefit of the domestic contracts and reduced production with Bass and Otway drilling programs having occurred. Development spending at ORG remains elevated with the Otway and Bassgas projects and above our expectation. This is unlikely to step down in FY16 as other commitments offset the step down in Cooper, Otway and Bassgas. Earnings and target price revision We have made minor adjustments to our EBITDA in FY15, albeit our take expense has dropped, reflecting a lower CEN expense. FY16E has been lowered as a result of lower income from CEN. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$12.89 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: Ongoing asset realisation Action and recommendation Neutral. Origin is attractive from a valuation perspective, but the valuation is sensitive to the longer-term oil price assumption. This is exacerbated by ORG s leverage, which is ~$4bn higher than sustainable. Whilst start of APLNG is a positive, action around de-gearing will be more significant to the share price. Please refer to page 4 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

2 Fig 1 Investment fundamentals ($ m) Neutral Shares: m Profit & Loss 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Assumptions 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Total Revenue $m 14,619 14,518 13,951 14,450 14,737 14,920 AUD/USD c less operating costs $m (12,512) (12,453) (11,916) (11,951) (12,182) (12,448) AUD/NZD c EBITDA $m 2,107 2,082 2,054 2,518 2,575 2,491 Brent oil prices US$/bbl less dep. & amort. $m (679) (732) (787) (805) (786) (761) East Coast gas price $/GJ EBIT $m 1,428 1,350 1,267 1,713 1,789 1,730 less net interest expense $m (255) (192) (224) (588) (618) (644) E&P Production 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E add share in associates (in $m (3) (34) Natural gas (inc Ethan PJ Profit before tax $m 1,183 1,170 1,040 1,091 1,567 1,535 Crude kbbls less tax expense $m (339) (342) (279) (332) (346) (320) Condensate kbbls 1, , , , , ,327.9 Net profit $m ,221 1,215 LPG kt less minorities $m (84) (106) (82) (84) (88) (86) APLNG PJe Adjusted profit $m ,133 1,129 Total production (in PJe add net abnormals $m (381) (183) (585) (54) - - add amortisation of goodw $m E&P Reserves 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Reported profit $m ,133 1,129 2P Reserves PJe 1,183 1,331 1,101 1, P reserves life yrs EPS (Adjusted) Acps EPS Growth % -15.7% -5.6% -6.4% -1.3% 66.7% -1.0% Generation 60% FFO/TD EPS (Reported) c Retail DPS (Ordinary & Special) Acps % Contact (557.13) Franking % 50% 0% 11% 83% 100% 100% E&P 40% S&P Ratio EFPOWA shares on issue m 1, , , , , ,128.6 APLNG 30% Other #REF! Cash Flow Statement 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 20% EBITDA $m 2,107 2,082 2,054 2,518 2,575 2,491 10% chg working capital $m (199) 162 (342) (247) (125) (105) 0% Net interest expense $m (436) (442) (554) (767) (750) (776) Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Tax payable $m (275) (17) (2) (229) (346) (320) S&P BBB credit rating FFO/TD >20% APLNG $m Other $m Op cash flow $m 1,206 1,785 1,155 1,339 1,751 1,739 add proceeds from sales $m A$m 1,800 Capex profile add capital raisings/debt dr $m 7,583 11,096 10,221 1, ,600 less debt repaid $m (6,678) (8,997) (6,563) (39) (1,525) (618) 1,400 less capital expenditure $m (1,669) (3,710) (3,898) (1,817) (783) (668) 1,200 less dividends paid $m (535) (634) (891) (675) (760) (831) 1,000 add other $m (0) 0 (0) 800 Net cash flow $m 59 (55) (281) Cash at Beginning of Period $m Cash at end of period $m , Balance Sheet 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash $m ,141 Fixed Assets $m 11,800 11,742 12,053 12,306 12,405 12,414 Exploration Assets $m 864 1,120 1,951 1,951 1,951 1,951 Intangibles $m Other $m 15,874 17,167 19,498 20,160 19,734 19,324 (200) 2014 Dec-14 Jun Maintenance Capex Energy Markets Contact Energy Exploration and Production Total Assets $m 29,586 31,139 34,647 36,153 35,545 35,712 Valuation 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Senior Debt $m 5,533 7,779 10,590 12,070 11,954 11,791 EV/EBITDA ratio x 9.0 x 10.3 x 12.6 x 8.1 x 6.2 x 6.2 x Total Liabilities $m 14,792 16,010 19,743 21,131 20,003 19,759 EV/EBIT ratio x 13.6 x 16.2 x 20.9 x 14.9 x 10.6 x 10.3 x Total S/Holders Funds $m 14,794 15,129 14,903 15,022 15,542 15,952 P/E ratio x 16.9 x 18.1 x 19.3 x 19.6 x 11.7 x 11.9 x P/CEPS ratio x 10.6 x 7.3 x 11.4 x 9.9 x 7.6 x 7.7 x Key Ratios 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E FCF yield x 9.28% 0.93% % 11.46% 27.23% 27.31% Net Debt/Equity % 46% 60% 89% 94% 87% 80% Dividend yield x 4.27% 4.22% 4.22% 4.22% 5.11% 5.06% Net Debt/(Net Debt+Equity) % 32% 38% 47% 49% 46% 44% Debt Coverage Ratio % 5.3 x 6.3 x 4.7 x 2.9 x 2.8 x 2.6 x Enterprise Value $m 19,649 22,209 26,441 27,420 26,774 26,122 WACC of 8.3% Effective tax rate % 29% 29% 27% 30% 22% 21% Energy Markets 11,056 11,035 11,314 10,825 10,313 9,792 EBITDA margin % 14.4% 14.3% 14.7% 17.4% 17.5% 16.7% Contract Energy 3,053 3,053 3,022 3,263 3,354 3,509 EBIT margin % 9.8% 9.3% 9.1% 11.9% 12.1% 11.6% Energy Production Developm 2,375 2,518 3,063 3,392 3,604 3,730 ROA % 5.1% 4.4% 3.7% 5.1% 7.1% 7.1% Exploratio ,756 1,954 2,074 2,182 ROE % 6.4% 6.2% 5.7% 5.6% 8.6% 8.3% Corporate (517) (541) (557) (553) (549) (544) ROIC % 6.2% 5.8% 4.6% 2.4% 2.9% 2.9% Debt (6,809) (9,134) (13,298) (14,189) (13,454) (12,723) Free cash flow $m 1, (2,151) 1,517 3,621 3,656 Sub total 10,022 7,875 5,300 4,693 5,343 5,947 APLNG (37.5%) Gross 5,800 8,953 12,232 14,234 13,377 12,671 Segmental EBITDA 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Debt (2,162) (3,016) (4,259) (4,629) (3,853) (3,293) E&P Sub total 3,638 5,938 7,974 9,605 9,525 9,378 Energy Markets 1,333 1,062 1,179 1,523 1,513 1,486 Origin Total 13,660 13,812 13,274 14,298 14,868 15,325 Contact Energy per share APLNG ,769 1,756 Corporate (42) (17) (58) (51) (51) (52) Implied EV/EBITDA Total EBITDA (inc. associates) 2,181 2,148 2,100 3,402 4,325 4,228 Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA growth -3.3% -1.5% -2.2% 62.0% 27.1% -2.2% Contact Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July July

3 Fundamentals Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a marginally negative view on Origin Energy. The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is under-priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 235/617 Global rank in Energy % of BUY recommendations 58% (7/12) Number of Price Target downgrades 3 Number of Price Target upgrades 0 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Energy) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score % -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple % -50% 0% 50% 100% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Price to Earnings FY0 EV/EBITDA FY0 EPS Growth 5yr Historic PE Growth FY1 Relative Turnover Turnover (USD) 20 Day PEG Ratio Inverted EPS Growth FY1 Negatives Positives -22% -15% -15% -17% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 28% 27% 25% 31% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/617) Percentile relative to market(/414) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 31 July

4 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2015 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 46.23% 58.36% 47.27% 44.20% 60.65% 43.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 37.67% 25.65% 29.09% 49.29% 34.19% 40.93% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.53% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.10% 15.99% 23.64% 6.52% 5.16% 16.06% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 1.38% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) ORG AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July month target price methodology ORG AU: A$12.89 based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: ORG AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Limited's equity securities. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 07-May-2015 ORG AU Neutral A$ Apr-2015 ORG AU Neutral A$ Feb-2015 ORG AU Neutral A$ Jan-2015 ORG AU Outperform A$ Dec-2014 ORG AU Outperform A$ Oct-2014 ORG AU Outperform A$ Aug-2014 ORG AU Outperform A$ Jul-2014 ORG AU Outperform A$ Jun-2014 ORG AU Outperform A$ Feb-2014 ORG AU Outperform A$ Oct-2013 ORG AU Outperform A$ Sep-2013 ORG AU Outperform A$ Feb-2013 ORG AU Outperform A$ Sep-2012 ORG AU Outperform A$ Aug-2012 ORG AU Outperform A$ July

5 Target price risk disclosures: ORG AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. 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