Commodities Weekly Rates, FX and Commodities Research

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1 Rates, FX and Commodities Research GOLD OUTPERFORMS AS OIL ROUT SAVAGES COMMODITIES COMMODITY OUTLOOK 15 2 METALS UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS 3 CHART LOGIC: GOLD INSUFFICIENT VELOCITY TO BREAK FREE FROM BEAR'S GRIP 4 ENERGY UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS 5 ECONOMIC INDICATORS & EVENTS TO WATCH 7 DATA CALENDAR 7 COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS 8 TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS 8 TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS INDEX 9 WEEKLY PRICE TABLE 10 ETF MONITOR TABLE & CHARTS 11 CHART PACKAGE 13 RESEARCH TEAM WeekoverWeek Percent Change as of Friday Close Weekly Commodity Movers & Shakers Silver Gold 4.6% 2.5% Gold and silver shine despite dollar strength and nearing Fed tightening. Palladium Coal Platinum 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% Base Metals trend lower along with declining appetite for risk. Change in Price (%) Copper Molybdenum Henry Hub NG Nickel AECO NG Uranium 0.2% 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% Natural gas largely unchanged as extend weather forecasts call begin to normalize. Gasoline and heating oil slide lower on warming weather across the US and lower feedstock crude oil. Zinc 2.3% Lead Aluminum 2.4% 3.3% Oil craters as OPEC stays steadfast on production amid waning demand expectations. Heating Oil 4.4% S&P GSCI Index 5.9% Gasoline Brent WTI 9.9% 10.5% 12.2% 1

2 15 COMMODITY OUTLOOK PDF: 2

3 METALS UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS 1,400 Fed Funds Rate Hike Expectations Drawing Nearer Gold Price (lhs) 22 After Shining Last Week, Gold and Silver Tarnish Ahead of the Fed Gold and silver received a boost again last week as continued shortcovering specs were squeezed out of positions with a falling USD, interest rates, and equity market all endearing those in the investment community to look positively on the precious metals for their safe haven characteristic. Gold Price ($/oz) 1,3 1,300 1,2 1,0 1,1 to Fed Funds Increase (rhs) to tightening While we did not previously expect this upside to carry prices as high as they did, we have stuck with the fundamentally negative story of weaker physical demand, a nearing Fed rate hike, based upon continued improvement in the US data, and continued stimulus measures outside of the US, helping to drive the USD higher. Price momentum has waned on Monday, and with just a couple days ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, where we expect that the Fed will drop the "considerable time" reference to Fed rate hikes, we expect that prices will get back on trend down toward their November lows under this scenario, and continued US data strength. We have attached our latest Chart Logic report (Gold: Insufficient Velocity to Break Free from Bear's Grip) from Thursday, December 11th, highlighting our reasons for this gold/silver downside bias in the nearterm. 1,100 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 May14 Jun14 and thus economic weakness has impacted investor driven flows away from the commodity markets in general. Therefore, it is not surprising to see a continued negative price trend on Monday, after last week's slide in the base metals sector. This could get worse before it gets better. Jul14 Aug14 Sep14 Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Mike Dragosits, Toronto Base Metals See Declining Investment Appetite Base metals have certainly been negatively impacted by falling oil prices, which make producing these metals cheaper, and global economic worries that are feeding into concerns about the demand side component and keeping supply/demand expectations looser than previously thought. However, recent mine supply strike talk, expected mine shutdowns and the Constitutional Court ruling in Indonesia to uphold the ore export ban are expected to help some base metals in 15, particularly nickel, zinc and lead. In contrast, these developments will only lend limited support to copper, but this view is fraught with nearterm downside. A renewed easing bias from China's PBoC will take time to stem the slowdown the country has witnessed, while the ECB continues to search for ways to enact more aggressive QE measures, 3

4 COMMODITY CHART LOGIC Gold: Insufficient Velocity to Break Free From Bear's Grip The recent Chinaled global equity market correction, renewed fears that Greece may again be causing problems for the EZ, a temporary reversal of the dollar rally and a slump in Treasury yields have all worked in tandem to propel gold materially higher. Indeed, the yellow metal jumped as much as $95.40/oz from its latenovember lows and currently trades near $1,228/oz. The metal had effectively decoupled from the broad commodity complex, outperforming oil and industrial metals which have trended lower over the same time frame. Given that TD Securities expects the Fed to start removing monetary accommodation in the early part of H215, a firming US dollar throughout the next year and spec exhaustion, we are sticking to our guns and remain quite negative on gold for much of the early part of 15. Indeed, it would not at all be surprising if gold dropped below $1,100/oz in the early part of 15. Gold price ($/oz) $1,230 $1,210 $1,190 $1,170 $1,1 $1,130 Gold Breaks Ranks With Commodity Complex for Now 31Oct 4Nov 8Nov 12Nov 16Nov Nov Gold Price Commodity Index Industrial Metals Index The upcoming FOMC communique (December 17th), may be the catalyst which sends gold into a free fall toward new cyclical lows. Following a strong US employment market report, the US central bank is quite likely to remove the pledge to keep rates low for a considerable time". This no doubt would bring forward the timing for the first rate hike away from the zero bound. Gold has responded very negatively to such developments. And, we think this would continue this time around as well. 24Nov 28Nov 2Dec 6Dec 10Dec Commodity & Industrial Metals Indices The prospects of higher rates increase carry costs and the opportunity to hold gold relative to fixed income assets. Similarly, the prospects for an earlierthan expected increase in the fed funds would help the US dollar to continue its impressive rally which is traditionally bad for gold. The big downside risk for gold and upside risk for the US dollar could come to fruition if the ECB undertakes some sort of unexpectedly aggressive asset purchase action in early15 as happened in the aftermath of the BoJ QE program augmentation announcement. Oildriven disinflation makes this a strong possibility now that Brent is below $65/bbl. Plus, low inflation serves as a realinterest rate tightening in the US, making gold carry higher. Gold Price ($/oz) Spec Long Positioning and ShortCovering Give Gold a Lift but Not Enough To Break Resistance 1, ,280 1, ,240 1,2 1,0 1,180 1,160 1,140 1,1 1,100 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Sep 6Oct 13Oct Oct 27Oct 3Nov 10Nov 17Nov 24Nov 1Dec 8Dec 15Dec Gold price Long spec position Short spec position We should also remember that the recent rally was driven by specs strapping on long positions and short covering and they are likely to look increasingly tapped out. In addition, gold did not break resistance near $1,235/oz and moved lower. To us this, along with the pending monetary policy and disinflation trends should be a signal to go short again. Bart Melek, Toronto *Originally published as a Commodity Chart Logic, Thursday December 11th, CFTC Spec Position (000's lots) 4

5 ENERGY UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS OPEC Hibernating for the Winter Energy futures led the commodities index lower this week as recent bearish sentiment continues to reflect woefully loose supplydemand balances into 15. In aggregate, WTI and Brent investors increased short positions moreso than longs last week, trimming some of the persistent overhang on Cushing, OK contracts. January delivery WTI was down 12.2% and 10.5% w/w to $57.81 bbl and $61.85 bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively. These futures are down even further today as the Empire Manufacturing Index surprised to the downside and recent comments from U.A.E. Energy Minister stating that OPEC will refrain from curbing output even if prices fall as low as $40 bbl weighed on the complex. As rolling active month crude oil prices are now approximately half of what they were six months ago, the point at which the complex came to a precipice and began its decent, many are wondering where the bottom lies. As H1/14 saw crude oil prices rise in response to more positive Western Europe and Asia growth expectations and escalating geopolitical supplyrisk from key producing regions, the opposite is true today at the end of H2/14. GDP growth expectations for China have been steadily edging downward and growth in Europe has come to a complete standstill. Meanwhile, supply of crude oil and petroleum products continues to grow at unprecedented speeds while OPEC members grapple with maintaining market share. Without the large oil cartel cutting production/export targets in order to support prices, oil has fallen in accordance with the supply overhang. Consequently, it is this lower price environment that is needed to reduce future drilling and production growth. Prices will move lower still before they recover and reflect the marginal cost of new supply and expected demand. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are in a position to weather many years of lower oil prices in order to ensure market share in the future. The group's reserves have grown to 5.7x their size ten years ago in January 05. While eleven of the top twenty crude oil (and lease condensate) producing countries in the world are OPEC members, the bulk of the group's reserves growth is from only three members: Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Libya. That being said, the largest producer and arguably defacto 'leader', Saudi Arabia, is in a position to see lower prices for years in order to reduce incentives for nonopec supply growth. 600,000 0, , ,000 0, ,000 3Jan12 2,000 0,000 1, ,000 (,000) Supply and Demand (MMbbl/d), Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 $UD/bbl WTI Spec Position (lhs) WTI Price (rhs) 3Apr12 NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct $UD/bbl Brent Spec Position (lhs) Brent Price (rhs) Global Balance Remains Loose into 15/16 Balance Demand Supply 65 (4) Note: comprised of crude oil, condensates, NGLs and nonconventionalsourced Source: Bloomberg, IEA, TD Securities (1) (2) (3) Balance (MMbbl/d) 5

6 OPEC is waiting for a significant supply response that will ensure member countries' pricing power and market share if/when the economy returns to longrun growth rates. As of last week, rig counts in North America are only marginally down (18 rigs) on a w/w basis and significantly up (+116 rigs) in comparison to this week last year. The low crude oil and natural gas price environment has had almost no effect on recent drilling activity. That being said, oil field services and E&P's will likely finish 14 drill programs as set out earlier in the year while we expect 15 capex budgets to be revised drastically lower. OPEC members will need to observe rig counts falling and corresponding supply growth in the coming quarters before attempting to step into the market to support prices, in our view. Otherwise, we do not foresee much deviation from current supply and demand growth expectations in 15 as significant structural changes are required in order to address arduously loose balances. Consequently, significant price risk to the downside remains over the coming quarters and the longerterm price equilibrium will reflect the marginal cost of new supply and expected demand. Michael R Loewen, Toronto Total Reserves less Gold (in SDRs billions) 1, TwoThirds of Global Crude Oil Production is Produced by the Top Ten Russia % Kuwait 5% OPEC Member Reserves Have Grown Substantially With Rising Oil Prices Saudi Arabia Libya 100 Algeria Saudi Arabia 19% Mexico 5% China 8% United Arab Emirates 6% Iraq 7% Iran 6% Canada 7% Note: Includes lease condensate; from Jan 10 to Aug 14 Source: Bloomberg, EIA, IEA, TD Securities United States 17% Venezuela U.A.E. Saudi Arabia Qatar Nigeria Libya Kuwait Iran Ecuador Angola Algeria Note: OPEC members excluding Iraq Source: IMF, Bloomberg, TD Securities Rig Count 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1, North American Rig Count Reacting Slowly to Oil Price Source: Baker Hughes, TD Securities 11 US & Canada Oil Rig Count WTI price WTI oil price ($/bbl) 6

7 ECONOMIC INDICATORS & EVENTS TO WATCH US housing data for November will be released this week and strength in this sector could be somewhat supportive for base metals demand, such as copper and zinc. December regional Fed data will help set expectations for the US in the month ahead, impacting industrial commodities, including oil. However, fears of a global economic slowdown and hope for more stimulus will trump any nearterm reactions to positive data. Additionally, the holiday season will keep liquidity quite thin and directionality very difficult to pinpoint in the weeks ahead. Price is more likely to continue trending lower on a choppy trajectory as the oil oversupply story and global demand worries drags the entire commodity complex lower. The bigger driver for commodity markets will likely be the Fed meeting on Wednesday, where the Fed is likely to alter its statement language by dropping the "considerable time" reference, referring to the length of time before rates will be hiked. This "hawkish" scenario would cause a bit of a negative stir in the gold/silver market, which has lacked momentum after the recent shortcovering driven rally. With a Fed edging closer toward rate hikes, and continued positive data in the US, renewed spec interest on the short side could easily trend gold back down to its November lows. Outside of the US, Eurozone manufacturing data, the ZEW survey, and the inflation outlook, along with Chinese property prices will add to the global commodity story. Weakness in the demand related components will have a larger impact on expectations for industrial commodities, but downsides could be tempered somewhat by increased hopes of immediate stimulus from both newly easing Chinese officials and an ECB that is expected to implement more aggressive QE in the new year. Mike Dragosits, Toronto Release Consensus Prior TUESDAY (December 16th) 02:00 EUR EU27 New Car Registrations (Nov) 6.5% 04:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Dec P) :00 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec P) :00 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec :00 EUR ZEW Survey Expectations (Dec) 11 05:00 EUR Trade Balance SA (Oct) 18.4bn 17.7bn 05:00 EUR Trade Balance NSA (Oct) 21.0bn 18.5bn 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Nov) 1040k 1009k 08:30 USD Housing Starts m/m (Nov) 3.1% 2.8% 08:30 USD Building Permits (Nov) 1065k 1080k 08:30 USD Building Permits m/m (Nov) 2.5% 4.8% 09:45 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Dec P) % % WEDNESDAY 05:00 EUR CPI y/y (Nov F) 0.3% 0.3% 05:00 EUR CPI Core y/y (Nov F) 0.7% 0.7% 05:00 EUR Labour Costs y/y (3Q) 1.2% 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec) 7.3% 08:30 USD CPI m/m (Nov) :30 USD CPI Ex Food and Energy m/m (Nov) :30 USD CPI y/y (Nov) 1.4% 1.7% 08:30 USD CPI Ex Food and Energy y/y (Nov) 1.8% 1.8% 08:30 USD CPI Core Index SA (Nov) :30 USD CPI Index NSA (Nov) % % 08:30 USD Current Account Balance (3Q) $97.5bn $98.5bn 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Dec) 2800k 1454k 10:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (Dec) 10k 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (Dec) 10k 8197k 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (Dec) 900k 5577k 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (Dec) 0.0% 2.0% 10:30 USD DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (Dec) % 10:30 USD DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (Dec) % 10:30 USD DOE Distillate Implied Demand (Dec) % 14:00 USD Fed Summary of Economic Projections (Ja 14:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (Dec) 0.3% 0.3% 14:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (Dec) 0.0% :30 CNY China November Property Prices (Jan) THURSDAY 05:00 EUR Construction Output m/m (Oct) :00 EUR Construction Output y/y (Oct) :30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec) 295k 294k 08:30 USD Continuing Claims (Dec) 2435k 2514k 09:45 USD Markit US Composite PMI (Dec P) :45 USD Markit US Services PMI (Dec P) :45 USD Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (Dec) :45 USD Bloomberg Economic Expectations (Dec) 47 10:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Dec) :00 USD Leading Index (Nov) 0.5% 0.9% 10:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Dec) 51 10:30 USD EIA Natural Working Gas Implie (Dec) 51 FRIDAY 04:00 EUR ECB Current Account SA (Oct) 30.0bn 04:00 EUR Current Account NSA (Oct) 31.0bn 11:00 USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (Dec) :00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (Dec) 1893 MONDAY (Dec 22nd) 01:30 CNY LNG Imports Volume MT (Nov) 1.38m 01:30 CNY Natural Gas Imports Volume MT (Nov) 2.00m 08:30 USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Nov) 14.0% 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Nov) 5.30m 5.26m 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales m/m (Dec) 0.8% 1.5% 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Dec A) 11.6 Time = Eastern Standard Time Source: Bloomberg 7

8 COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS Commodity Spot 15 Annual (Avg of forward month contracts) Price Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 13A 14E 15F 16F Precious Metals Gold 1 $/oz 1,9 1,175 1,0 1,2 1,275 1,412 1,265 1,225 1,288 Silver 1 $/oz Platinum 1 $/oz 1,212 1,300 1,4 1,600 1,700 1,487 1,386 1,513 1,775 Palladium 1 $/oz Base Metals Copper 2 $/lb $/tonne 6,448 6,614 6,702 6,482 6,4 7,332 6,871 6,575 6,834 Zinc 2 $/lb $/tonne 2,159 2,337 2,381 2,425 2,425 1,910 2,175 2,392 3,175 Lead 2 $/lb $/tonne 1,953 2,183 2,293 2,337 2,337 2,139 2,113 2,287 2,646 Nickel 2 $/lb $/tonne 16,377 17,902 19,842 21,495 22,046 15,034 16,954,321 26,455 Aluminium 2 $/lb $/tonne 1,896 1,940 1,940 1,984 1,984 1,847 1,871 1,962 2,094 Molybdenum 3 $/lb Iron Ore 4 $/tonne Energy WTI Crude Oil $/bbl Brent Crude Oil $/bbl Heating Oil (ULSD) $/gal Gasoline $/gal NYMEX Natural Gas $/MMBtu AECO Natural Gas $/MMBtu CAD/GJ Uranium $/lb Newcastle Thermal 5 $/tonne Notes: F = Forecast, E = Estimate, A = Actual; 1. London PM Fix; 2. LME; 3. Molybdenum equivalent to moly oxide, FOB USA; 4. CFR China, 62% Fe, dry; 5. Japan CIF steam coal markernewcastle TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS ONGOING TRADES Trade Entry Date Entry Stop Current Target P/L Long Platinum 1 8Dec14 1, , , , % Short Mar/Apr '15 Nymex Natgas 1 8Dec flat 9.6% Long BrentWTI Spread 2 Nov flat % Long Zinc/Aluminium Ratio 2 Nov % Long Gold/Silver Ratio (reverse trade at 78.0x) 2 30Oct % Long Nickel 2 6Oct14 16,700 14,000 16,435 22, % Short Copper/Lead Ratio 2 7Mar % CLOSED TRADES Trade Entry Date Entry Exit Exit Date Target P/L Long Platinum/Palladium Ratio 4Sep Dec % Long Zinc 6Oct14 2, , Dec14 2, % Long Lead 6Oct14 2, , Dec14 2, % Short Cash Aluminium 11Sep14 2, , Oct14 1, % Long Lead 4Nov13 2, , Oct14 2, % Short Gold/Platinum Ratio 2May Oct % Long Zinc/Aluminum Ratio 17Jul Sep % Long Platinum 2May14 1, , Sep14 1, % Long Palladium 10Dec Sep % Short Cash Aluminum 17Jul14 1, , Aug14 1, % Long Zinc 1Jul13 1, , Jul14 2, % Short BrentWTI Spread (Dec '14) 9Jan Jun % Notes: 1. Trade recommended in Oct 30, 14 Chart Logic report; 2. Levels adj. in 15 Outlook. 8

9 THE TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS PRICE INDEX The TD Securities Global Metals Price Index (TDGMPI) is an aggregate, weighted price measure based on a basket of spot base and precious metals. TDGMPI weights are based on the metals importance in the global economy, with USD dollar value used as a proxy. The TDGMPI encompasses nine metals. The weights are based on a rolling 5 year average contribution of each metal to the total value of global metal production. The nine metals and their current weights are: copper (26.3%), aluminum (16.6%), nickel (5.5%), zinc (4.6%), lead (4.0%), gold (35.6%), silver (4.6%), platinum (2.1%) and palladium (0.8%). Thus, metals which have a greater impact on the value of world metal production receive a greater weighting in the index. This index can be used as an analytical tool, mainly to track how the metals sector is performing over time, but also to compare performance of each of the individual metals and subsectors (precious metals, base metals) to the index as a whole. $bn TD Global Metals Price Index TD Base Metals Price Index TD Precious Metals Price Index $bn TD Global Metals Price Index (lhs) TD Base Metals Price Index (rhs) TD Precious Metals Price Index (rhs) Source: TD Securities 9

10 WEEKLY PRICE TABLE Commodity Markets Weekly Update Commodity 15Dec previous close a week ago a month ago a year ago year to date TD Global Metals Price Indices TD Global Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Precious Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Base Metals Price Index ($bn) Precious Metals Gold Spot (US$/oz.) Silver Spot (US$/oz.) Platinum Spot (US$/oz.) Palladium Spot (US$/oz.) Base Metals & Minerals Aluminum (US$/tonne) Copper (US$/tonne) Zinc (US$/tonne) Nickel (US$/tonne) Lead (US$/tonne) Molybdenum (US$/lb.) Cobalt (US$/lb) Tin (US$/lb) UxC Uranium U308 Swap (US$/lb) Bulks Thermal Coal Baltic Dry Index Energy WTI Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Brent Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Heating Oil (US$/gal.) Gasoline, RBOB (US$/gal.) NYMEX Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) AECO Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) Denatured Ethanol (US$/gal.) Softs USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat (US$/bush USDA No. 2 Yellow Corn (US$/bush) USDA No. 1 Yellow Soybeans (US$/bush) Coffee (US$/lb) Cotton (US$/lb) Lean Hogs (US$/lb) Cattle, Feeder (US$/lb) Cattle, Live (US$/lb) Equities S&P S&P TSX Composite S&P TSX Global Gold S&P TSX Global Mining S&P TSX Energy Index XAU Philly Gold & Silver Index FTSE Nikkei Currencies CAD/USD Euro/USD Japanese Yen British Pound Yuan US Trade Weighted Dollar (1973=100)

11 ETF MONITOR TABLE Last Updated Date TD Securities: Commodities Trade Strategy Precious Metals ETF Monitor Latest Holdings 5Day Change 30Day Change Yearly Change ($US ($US ($US Ounces Millions) Ounces Millions) Ounces Millions) Ounces ($US Millions) Total GOLD ETFs 52,484,455 63,345 14, (145,886) 895 (6,595,392) (9,992) SPDR Gold Trust December 12, 14 23,333,5 28, , , (3,274,790) (4,868) ETF Securities December 12, 14 7,848,731 9,473 (14,874) 9 38,719 6 (0,519) (891) ishares December 12, 14 5,0,068 6,276 (,324) (7) 52, (197,971) (425) ZKB December 5, 14 4,513,372 5,447 (22,116) (11) (105,521) (33) (1,315,697) (1,788) Julius Baer December 11, 14 1,651,860 1,994 (9,0) (5) (43,300) (18) (713,300) (942) Central Fund of CA December 8, 14 1,694,644 2, (58) Xetra Gold December 12, 14 1,575,065 1, (54) Credit Suisse December 12, 14 1,553,0 1, (53) Source December 12, 14 1,396,944 1,686 (2,612) 2 17, (636) (49) Sprott Physical December 12, 14 1,300,518 1,570 (36,917) (40) (36,910) (17) (258,708) (366) NewGold December 12, 14 1,133,454 1,368 (34,659) (38) (157,908) (164) (212,816) (303) Central Gold Trust December 8, , (24) Royal Canadian Mint December 12, , (47) 1 (671) 6 (54,660) (79) Claymore December 12, , (9,102) (7) (66,296) (89) Goldist December 12, 14 51, (2) Total SILVER ETFs 633,222,121 10,390 (4,565,172) (4) (7,678,168) 85 6,634,434 (2,074) ishares December 12, ,009,0 5,6 (4,214,700) (30) (5,891,400) 18 14,237,400 (913) ZKB December 5, 14 77,496,052 1,277 (174,278) 6 (653,298) 15 (7,700,168) (426) Central Fund of CA December 12, 14 76,964,103 1, (2) (270) ETF Securities December 12, 14 64,328,348 1,060 (298,716) 2 (882,275) 7 1,652,742 (193) Sprott Physical December 12, 14 49,287, (173) Julius Baer December 11, 14 14,851, ,000 4 (2,000) 1 (1,234,000) (77) Claymore December 12, 14 3,373, (12) Silver Bullion Trust December 12, 14 3,143, (11) Royal Canadian Mint December 12, 14 2,767, (478) 0 (1,195) 1 (321,539) (16) Total PLATINUM ETFs 2,631,028 3,0 24,845 (16) (55,678) (27) 178,130 (141) NewPlat December 12, 14 1,104,710 1,344 7,863 (10) (40,303) (32) 246, ETF Securities December 12, ,765 1, (16) (9,562) 2 (12,210) (1) ZKB December 5, , (1,499) (7) (3,123) 0 (43,895) (101) Source December 12, 14 98,828 1 (816) (3) (41) 1 (24,115) (47) December 8, 14 99, , ,990 17,415 9 Sprott Physical December 12, 14 69, (1,103) (3) (1,107) (0) (12,527) (27) Deutsche Bank December 12, 14 64, , (16,532) (19) 6,696 (0) Total PALLADIUM ETFs 3,046,998 2,443 26, , , ETF Securities December 12, 14 1,064, (12,977) (10) 30, (177,490) (36) Standard Bank December 15, , (48) 0 4, , NewPall December 15, , , , , ZKB December 5, , (0) 0 (992) 7 (48,802) (14) Swiss & Global December 11, , (1,510) 3 (42,330) (18) Sprott Physical December 12, , (2,523) (2) (2,522) 3 (28,616) (7) Source December 12, , (11) 0 (4,358) 1 (,835) (2) Deutsche Bank December 12, 14 75, , , (21,078) (9) Note: Totals include more than the listed ETFs, hence do not alw ays add up, and the data updates at different time, respective ETF issuer 11

12 ETF CHARTS Million Ounces Gold ETF Holdings Total ETF Holdings (lhs) Spot Gold Price (rhs) 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,0 1,400 1,300 1,0 1,100 1,000 $US/Oz Million Ounces Silver ETF Holdings Total ETF Holdings (lhs) Spot Silver Price (rhs) $US/Oz , Respective ETF issuer , Respective ETF issuer 15 Thousand Ounces 3,000 2,0 2,000 1,0 1,000 Platinum ETF Holdings Total ETF Holdings (lhs) Spot Platinum Price (rhs) 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,0 1,400 1,300 1,0 $US/Oz Thousand Ounces 3,100 2,900 2,700 2,0 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 Palladium ETF Holdings Total ETF Holdings (lhs) Spot Palladium Price (rhs) 1, $US/Oz , Respective ETF issuer 1,100 1, , Respective ETF issuer 0 12

13 CHART PACKAGE FORWARD CURVES $US/Troy Oz COMEX Gold 1,260 1,240 1,2 1,0 1,180 1,160 1, (rhs) $US/Troy Oz COMEX Silver $US/Troy Oz 3.11 LME Copper LME Aluminum (rhs) LME Nickel LME Zinc (rhs) 13

14 CHART PACKAGE FORWARD CURVES CONTINUED NYMEX WTI Crude Oil 110 ICE Brent Crude Oil $US/bbl $US/bbl $US/bbl NYMEX 2:1:1 Crack Spread $US/MMBtu NYMEX Natural Gas $US/Ton NYMEX Coal $US/Ton NYMEX Uranium

15 CHART PACKAGE VOLATILITY CURVES 26 COMEX Gold 35 COMEX Silver ATM Implied Vol (%) ATM Implied Vol (%) NYMEX Platinum NYMEX Palladium ATM Implied Vol (%) ATM Implied Vol (%)

16 CHART PACKAGE INDUSTRIAL METAL INVENTORIES Days Supply Aluminum Warehouse Inventories 60 Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs) Aluminum Price (rhs) Days Supply Lead Warehouse Inventories 30 Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs) 25 Lead Price (rhs) Days Supply Copper Warehouse Inventories 35 Inventory at LME, SHFE, COMEX (lhs) 30 Copper Price (rhs) Days Supply Nickel Warehouse Inventories 80 Inventory at LME (lhs) 70 Nickel Price (rhs) Days Supply Zinc Warehouse Inventories Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs) Zinc Price (rhs)

17 CHART PACKAGE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES MMbbl U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Jan3 Jan31 Feb28 Mar28 Apr25 May23 Jun Jul18 Aug15 Sep12 Oct10 Nov7 Dec5 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities MMbbl Jan3 Jan31 Feb28 Mar28 Gasoline Inventory Apr25 May23 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities Jun Jul18 Aug15 Sep12 Oct10 Nov7 Dec l 40 b M 35 M n J a 1 3 n J a Crude Oil Inventory at Cushing, OK 8 2 b e F 8 r2 a M 5 r2 p A 3 y 2 a M 0 2 n J u 8 l1 J u 5 1 g u A 2 1 p e S 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities 0 t1 c O v 7 o N c 5 e D MMbbl Heating Oil (ULSD) Inventory Jan3 Jan31 Feb28 Mar28 Apr25 May23 Jun Jul18 Aug15 Sep12 Oct10 Nov7 Dec5 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities Operating Capacity Utilization (%) 100.0% 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% Jan3 Jan31 Feb28 Refinery Utilization Mar28 Apr25 May23 5yr Range 5yr Avg Source: DOE, TD Securities Jun Jul18 Aug15 Sep12 Oct10 Nov7 Dec5 Storage (Bcf) US Natural Gas Storage Level 4,0 4,000 3,0 3,000 3,359 Bcf 2,0 2,000 1,0 1, yr Range yr Avg 3Jan 31Jan 28Feb 28Mar 25Apr 23May Jun 18Jul 15Aug 12Sep 10Oct 7Nov 5Dec Source: EIA, TD Securities 17

18 CHART PACKAGE CFTC COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS 300,000 COMEX Gold $UD/oz 1,900 60,000 COMEX Silver $UD/oz 40 2,000 1,800 1,700, ,000 1,600 40, ,000 1,0 1,400 30, ,000 1,300,000,000 1,0 1,100 10, , /Jan/12 3/Apr/12 3/Jul/12 3/Oct/12 3/Jan/13 3/Apr/13 3/Jul/13 3/Oct/13 3/Jan/14 3/Apr/14 3/Jul/14 3/Oct/14 3/Jan/12 3/Apr/12 3/Jul/12 3/Oct/12 3/Jan/13 3/Apr/13 3/Jul/13 3/Oct/13 3/Jan/14 3/Apr/14 3/Jul/14 3/Oct/14 Gold Spec Position (lhs) Gold Price (rhs) Silver Spec Position (lhs) Silver Price (rhs) 60,000 NYMEX Platinum $UD/oz 1,800 35,000 NYMEX Palladium $UD/oz 9,000 40,000 30,000,000 10,000 1,700 1,600 1,0 1,400 1,300 1,0 1,100 30,000 25,000,000 15,000 10,000 5, , /Jan/12 3/Apr/12 3/Jul/12 3/Oct/12 3/Jan/13 3/Apr/13 3/Jul/13 3/Oct/13 3/Jan/14 3/Apr/14 3/Jul/14 3/Oct/14 3Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 Platinum Spec Position (lhs) Platinum Price (rhs) Palladium Spec Position (lhs) Palladium Price (rhs),000 COMEX Copper $UD/lb ,000 NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas $UD/MMbtu ,000 (10,000) (,000) (30,000) , , ,000 0, ,000 (100,000) (40,000) 270 (0,000) 3Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 3Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 Copper Spec Position (lhs) Copper Price (rhs) Natural Gas Spec Position (lhs) Natural Gas Price (rhs) 18

19 CHART PACKAGE CFTC COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS 600,000 0, , ,000 0, ,000 NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil $UD/bbl ,000 0,000 1, ,000,000 NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil $UD/bbl (,000) 55 3Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 3Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 WTI Spec Position (lhs) WTI Price (rhs) Brent Spec Position (lhs) Brent Price (rhs) 1, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000,000 NYMEX Gasoline $UD/gal ,000 40,000 30,000,000 10,000 (10,000) (,000) (30,000) NYMEX Heating Oil $UD/gal (40,000) 180 3Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 3Jan12 3Apr12 3Jul12 3Oct12 3Jan13 3Apr13 3Jul13 3Oct13 3Jan14 3Apr14 3Jul14 3Oct14 Gasoline Spec Position (lhs) Gasoline Price (rhs) Heating Oil Spec Position (lhs) Heating Oil Price (rhs) Commodities Research Team: Bart Melek Head of Commodity Strategy bart.melek@tdsecurities.com Mike Dragosits Senior Commodity Strategist mike.dragosits@tdsecurities.com Michael R Loewen Commodity Strategist michael.r.loewen@tdsecurities.com

20 GLOBAL RESEARCH TEAM New York Eric Green Head of US Research, FICM Millan Mulraine Deputy Head, US Rates Strategy Blue Macellari Senior LatAm Strategist Cheng Chen US Strategist Gennadiy Goldberg US Strategist Toronto Shaun Osborne Chief FX Strategist David Tulk Chief Canada Macro Strategist Bart Melek Head of Commodity Strategy Andrew Kelvin Senior Fixed Income Strategist Mazen Issa Senior Canada Macro Strategist Mike Dragosits Senior Commodity Strategist Martin Schwerdtfeger FX Strategist Michael R Loewen Commodity Strategist London Richard Kelly Head of European Rates and FX Research Christian Maggio Head of Emerging Markets Research Jacqui Douglas Senior Global Strategist Tim Davis Global Strategist TD Rates, FX & Commodities Research USA Canada Australia New Zealand UK Europe Emerging Markets FX & Commodities Singapore Annette Beacher Head of AsiaPacific Research Prash Newnaha AsiaPacific Macro Strategist Website: This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended to provide financial, legal, accounting or tax advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. Information provided in this Report is believed to be accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee it is accurate or complete or current at all times and no representation is made in this regard. Conclusions and opinions do not guarantee any future event or performance. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. It is based on public information. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on any returns detailed. Historic information or performance is not indicative of future returns. The information is subject to change without notice. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily express those of The Toronto Dominion Bank ( TD Bank ). TD Bank or an associated company may have effected or may effect transactions for its own account in the securities described herein. Any transaction entered into is in reliance only upon your judgement as to both financial and suitability criteria. No proposed customer or counterparty relationship is intended or implied between TD Bank or any of its regulated subsidiaries and a recipient of this document where that recipient is not an existing customer or counterparty of TD Bank or one of its regulated subsidiaries. COPYRIGHT 13 by TD Securities Inc. TD Securities is a trademark of the TD Bank, representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC and certain investment activities of the TD Bank. The TorontoDominion Bank is regulated by the FSA.