The Brazilian Economy and the Pharmaceutical Market

Transcription

1 The Brazilian Economy and the Pharmaceutical Market São Paulo, April 9th, 2010

2 The Brazilian Economy 2

3 GDP- Annual Growth Rate % per year Source: IBGE and Ministry of Economy 3

4 IMF Projected GDP growth % Grouth Source: IMF 4

5 Net Domestic and Foreign Demand % contribution to GDP growth * Projected Source: Central Bank of Brazil 5

6 Wages total aggregate % over previous year Sources: Ministry of Labour, Ministry of the Economy and Credit Suisse 6

7 Foreign Exchange Reserves USD billions * Up to 01/15/2010 Source: Central Bank of Brazil 7

8 Net Foreign Debt % of GDP Source: Central Bank of Brazil 8

9 CPI Inflation Source: Central Bank of Brazil 9

10 The Brazilian Pharmaceutical Market and the World Market 10

11 Growth in Asia and Latin America leads global market to an audited $725bn in 2008 Audited Market 2008 % Growth (Const US$) CAGR MAT Dec 2008 Sales US$bn % Mkt Shr Worldwide $ % North America Europe AAA Japan Latin America Key Markets Source: IMS Health 11

12 World Pharmaceutical Market ,3% 5,4% 15,7% 2,6% 12,9% 34.3 North America Europe AAA Japan Latin America Sales US$ Bn % Growth Source: IMS Health 12

13 Brazilian Pharmaceutical Market ,5% R$billion 19,2 21,5 23,6 26,4 30, OTC 38% 39% 40% 41% 43% Generic 9% 11% 12% 14% 15% Pharma 53% 50% 48% 45% 42% Source: IMS Health

14 Brazilian Pharmaceutical Market (retail) ,5% R$billion 19,2 21,5 23,6 26,4 30, Local Capital 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% Foreign Capital 62% 60% 58% 56% 54% Source: IMS Health

15 LATIN AMERICA Share of sales 2008 US$ 34 billion Brazil 36 % Mexico 25 % Venezuela 13 % Argentina 9 % Colombia 5 % Others 12 % Source: IMS Health 15

16 Pharmerging maintain mostly strong growth Three largest markets p/ comparison Country US$bn 2008 % Mkt 2008 % Growth Const US$ 2008 CAGR US $ Japan Germany Source: IMS Health China Brazil Turkey Korea Mexico India Russian Fed

17 Brazil - Top 10 - Pharma Companies RK US$ Ind Corporations Million Growth Evol. Total ,6% 1 1 EMS CORP ,8% 100,2 2 2 SANOFI-AVENTIS ,4% 99,8 3 3 ACHE ,5% 102,6 4 4 MEDLEY ,1% 103,1 5 5 NOVARTIS CORP 552 5,4% 94,4 6 7 EUROFARMA ,6% 113,4 7 6 BAYER CORP 483 1,8% 91,2 8 8 PFIZER 374 0,6% 90,1 9 9 JOHNSON+JOHNSON CO 348 3,4% 92, GSK CORP 316 6,8% 95,7 Nota 1: Retail Only Stable > 95 e < 105 Accelerated Growth > 105 Source: IMS / PMB MAT ABRIL 2009 Steep Drop < 95 17

18 Brazil - Top Pharma Companies RK US$ Ind Corporations Million Growth Evol. Total ,6% ASTRAZENECA BRASIL ,4% 111, BOEHRINGER ING 276 2,4% 91, NYCOMED PHARMA LTD 269 5,1% 94, ROCHE 248 5,1% 94, BIOLAB 246 9,9% 98, D M IND. FTCA 240 1,6% 91, MANTECORP I Q FARM 236 6,0% 95, SCHERING PLOUGH ,5% 99, SANDOZ DO BRASIL ,4% 128, MERCK A. G ,1% 100,5 Nota 1: Retail Only Stable > 95 e < 105 Accelerated Growth > 105 Source: IMS / PMB MAT ABRIL 2009 Steep Drop < 95 18

19 Sales share (US$) Brazil - Only 27% of the market protected by patents 26% 2,6% 27% 2,9% 27% 3,3% 22% 3,0% 74% 73% 73% 78% E Without exclusivity With exclusivity Source: IMS / PMB MAT ABRIL

20 Drugstore Chains Sales Abrafarma 2008 x 2007 January/ December 2008 January/ December 2007 Change (%) Sales $ $ ,32 Medicines $ $ ,17 Non Medicines $ $ ,64 Generics $ $ ,31 Delivery $ $ ,77 Farmácia Popular Program $ $ ,75 Customers Served ,29 Delivery Customers Served ,09 Customers Farmácia Popular Program ,48 Units Sold ,61 Units Sold - Farmácia Popular Program ,38 20

21 Pharmaceutical Retail Market 50,80% Dollars 17,00% 32,20% Independent Drugstores Abrafarma Other Chains 55,70% Units 16,20% 28,00% Independent Drugstores Abrafarma Other Chains 21

22 R$ per capita/month Consumption and access to medicines by income level class 3,1 Private Expend Public Expend Estimated Gap - Estimated annual Private Expend = 23,8 billion R$; - Estimated annual Public Expend= 10,2 billion R$; - Estimated annual gap in relation to B = 18,2 billion R$; - Estimated annual gap in relation to C = 9,4 billion R$. 32,8 3,1 4,5 4,9 9,20 12,00 20,6 14,7 4,9 9,6 4,9 6,8 classes Population (million) * Minimum Wage Source IBGE - PNAD 2006 e POF 2002/2003 A B C D E + than 20 mw* from 10 to 20 mw from 5 to 10 mw from 2 to 5 mw up to 2 mw 5,6 12,7 31,9 71,0 59,9 Total Population = 181,1 Millions 22

23 Taxes on Medicines Total Taxes Up to 33,9% 21% 16% BRAZIL ARGENTINA GERMANY Source: IBPT 23

24 Countries without Taxes on Medicines Taxes Exempt UNITED STATES MEXICO COLOMBIA UNITED KINGDOM Source: IBPT 24

25 ICMS Revenues before and after the implementation R$ billions ICMS Revenues - State of São Paulo Pharmaceutical Industry 2000 to 2009(*) - R$ billions 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,112 1,124 1,196 1,175 Start of Tax Substituition 1,369 1,307 1,430 1,640 1,943 2,150 1,0 0,5 0, (*) Source: Secretaria da Fazenda do Estado de São Paulo (*) 2009 Estimated 25

26 Taxes on selected items Human Medicines Restaurant Lunch/Dinner Tractor Sugar Toilet paper Theater/Movie Boats/Airplanes Powder Milk 33,9% 32,3% 31,8% 30,4% 30,4% 30,3% 28,3% 28,2% Fruits Eggs 20,6% 21,8% Cow Meat Books Rice and Beans Salt Flour Animal Medicines Milk 17,5% 15,5% 15,3% 15,1% 14,0% 13,1% 12,6% Source: IBPT 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 26