Danube Floodrisk Project

Transcription

1 Danube Floodrisk Project Mary-Jeanne Adler 1, Olimpia Negru 1, Simona Pătruţ 1 1 Ministry of Environment and Forests, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The Danube Floodrisk Project is an important contribution to the implementation of the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDF) and Danube Strategy and the EU water policy. In September 2007, shortly after the devastating Danube flooding, the Ministry of Environment and Water Management under the Presidency of ICPDR, getting support of the German federal government, the governments of all states along the Danube, initiated the transnational Danube Floodrisk Project, promoting the cooperation between spatial planning and water protection authorities in the Danube river basin. Since then, 19 authorities from Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, Serbia and Croatia have been working together as project partners, and a number of 4 other organizations (3 from Germany and ICPDR) have joined the project as informal partners. Their main objective is the drawing up of flood hazard maps using an harmonized methodology, the integration of such maps into risk maps, and their spatial planning maps for certain pilot areas for the optimization of the decision-making process on site, with a view for taking the necessary precautionary decisions in connection with development and infrastructure projects. It is funded by the EU through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), in the framework of the INTERREG III B SEE Programme. Key words: Flood Directive, hazard and flood mapping, territorial planning for sustainable development Introduction Between 1998 and 2004, Europe suffered over 100 major damaging floods, including the catastrophic floods along the Danube River in summer Severe floods in 2006 further reinforced the need for concerted action. FLOODRISK brings together scientists, public servants and stakeholders in developing a scalable system of flood risk maps all along the main course of the Dabube River. Transnational methodologies and models is under developpement and implementation for flood risk estimation and mapping, for both gauged and ungauged sites, leading up to the proposal of flood mitigation measures and improving the warning systems. The efficacy of different best management practices, structural and non-structural, will be examined in relation to flood prevention and low impact development. Upon project completion, local authorities of all Danubian countries will have at their disposal, and will be trained to use, a state of the art, viable, integrated system for flood risk estimation and mitigation, which will constitute a solid basis for decision making in the area of spatial planning. The results of the project will be disseminated at the level of the central and local administrations, in a wide range of stakeholders within the SEES region, and a strong knowledge of the flood risk network will be built. The target groups are competent regional authorities, responsible ministries and the scientific community dealing with flood prevention and mitigation, local technical services, civil protection services, which are identified as the main target groups for the FLOORISK project. Additionaly, populations in the SEE region and in particular, the ones living in the Danube flood prone areas or suffering from flood impacts are also percieved as beneficiaries of the project. The project will produce an effective internet active map product improving the warning system (aiming to reduce losses from floods) and will deliver an expandable software tool for flood risk search for the different flood prone areas that will be made available to interested parties and will be available for stakeholders population and entities responsible with flood risk areas delineation and flood risk management. New flood management instruments and tools will be promoted with emphasis on flood risk mapping and mitigation: flood risk maps GIS-integrated, based and web interfaced software tool for flood risk estimation will be produced; hydrological, hydraulic and regional vulnerability estimation models for the SEE regions BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

2 for flood risk estimation will be examined and proposed; innovative and environment friendly solutions in structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures (retention ponds, real-time warning systems etc.) will be proposed. Best Management Practice for flood risk prevention and mitigation will be promoted to the local authorities for long term sustainable spatial planning and low inpact development. All partners will get greater awareness and public involvement in flood protection issues will be achieved through multiple dissemination and training actions. Improving the flood risk mapping methodology in the Danube Basin, the partners will be ready to get better information and to transpose the methodology in the water districts within the basin. An adequate methodology will be implemented in the Danube basin, using automatic cartographic system data as input data. The warning system will disseminate data to all decision levels and to Emergency Inspectorates from the basin till the local administration and population. Objectives Implementation of common methodologies and integrated strategies and actions for the prevention of flooding and the mitigation of their adverse impacts. Application on the Danube River, will establish a standard for flood risk mapping and will conduct to exchange of experiences and development of appropriate tools for the entire basin, for the regions local water managing and planning authorities. Promotion of sustainable flood risk management measures and best practices, linked with environmental protection, low impact development and sustainable land use planning, looking for opportunities to deliver multiple benefits by increasing public awareness and by informing competent authorities about flood risk and how to adequately deal with it. Competent regional authorities, local technical services, civil protection services, responsible ministries and the scientific community dealing with flood prevention and mitigation are identified as the main target groups for the FLOODRISK Project. Additionaly, populations in the SEE region and in particular, the ones living in flood prone areas or suffering from flood impacts are also percieved as beneficiaries of the project. The project will introduce an effective flood risk methodology based on the detailed mapping (aiming to reduce losses from floods) and will deliver an expandable methodology tool that will be made available at the Danube Basin level, to map the main tributaries (for the next stage of the project to implement Flood Directive). The main activities The main activities in the project refer at the following: collection of field data figure 1, mapping the vulnerability in the Danube flood plain, collection, analysis and processing of hydrometeorological data for flood events and monitoring networks assessment, development of transnational methods, evaluation and comparison of hydrological, hydraulic and regional loss models. Adoption of the most appropriate and producing the cartographic products, identification of flood impacts, examination of the adequacy of the existing flood protection works, compilation and evaluation of the efficiency of best management practices (BMPs) for flood management of the Danube River flood plains. Proposal of structural and non-structural measures in the high risk areas, development of an integrated database and software, GIS based and web interfaced, containing several databases (as well as a knowledge base) and modelling tools for the Danube River, dissemination of results end user training. The main working programs in the FLOODRISK Project are described below. WP1- Harmonisation of requirements, data and methods As the river system behaves as one and does not respect any borders it is important to respond to this by organizing the flood risk management in one piece. As still many different requirements exist and different regions provide a different background it is a challenging task to combine all this. So the harmonization work package starts from more political questions like the requirements but also has to go very much in detail concerning the technical question. Basis for the harmonized product description will be the national laws of the project members, the EU flood directive and good practice experiences from different projects (Eximap, Flapp, Floodsite, RiskEOS, existing map books from Rhine, Odra and Elbe). Also existing maps should be used and integrated as much as possible. BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

3 Figure 1. Danube Floodplain Harmonization of requirements First aim is to harmonize the requirements. Harmonization will be needed between the different nations but even more between different user groups: Water management and flood protection planning Flood forecast service Local and regional planning authorities Support rescue services General public Insurance companies Concerning the different steps of the EU flood directive it will be important to find a common interpretation of the directive. Harmonisation of data Data are the heart of any risk management process. If data are not consistent or are of different quality this also is reflected in the results. Concerning data, harmonization is needed for: data formats (GIS system) data quality (resolution, accuracy, up-to-dateness) meta data (minimum content) projection and height system (defining either unique projection or projection routines) Harmonization of methods As the applied methods predetermine the results to a large extent they need to be defined very closely. In some cases an application of different methods might be appropriate but it needs to be decided very BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

4 carefully about using different approaches. In these cases the effects on the results have to be discussed in detail and ways to handle differences in the results to be found. The harmonization of methods covers: methods of quality management quality tests to be performed methods of data collection methods of damage assessment modelling techniques and model border conditions Last but not least the scenario definition concerning the simulation methods will be influencing the results very much. Here the impact of the different requirements. the several user groups and the scale of the maps will influence the results very much. Harmonization of results and presentation The cartography have to display the results of the harmonization process, at least a map book at the scale of 1: (similar to the ones of the Rhine and the Elbe) will be produced, showing the complete course of the river Danube. Additionally more local maps need to be produced (1: ) to demonstrate local effects and the quality of the available output data sets. The complete results should be available in a high resolution and uniform GIS or database format, the formats and way of access or distribution also need to be defined. As the results will be mainly presented in different map products (printed, digital and web based) also for the cartography standards need to be defined due to the user needs: map content (layers, background information) legend classes symbols and colours languages coordinate systems The work of this task will be performed in a series of workshops, expert group meetings and might also include the help of national and international consultants. Next to the production of a harmonization concept, the results should also be used outside the project work. So project partners and relevant organizations need to be trained. Also the use and handling of the data beyond the project duration needs to be discussed. So a concept has to be developed to use and update the products. This includes a strong interaction with the ICPDR and the involved national authorities. WP2: Stakeholder involvement and end user integration For the elaboration and implementation of the risk information and maps it is of great importance to include the regional and local stakeholders in the process of the flood risk maps development. Further it is necessary to identify the end users and to integrate these groups in the process as well to clarify the technical solutions necessary for implementation. In addition, besides the international experts the regional and local water management experts are involved from the early beginning of the project. The overall products will be the reflection of the mapping actions. Besides that, guidance and advice will be worked out including the needs of the stakeholders and end users. Stakeholder analysis In this WP the identification of transnational and regional stakeholders (related to flood risk) in the Danube river basin takes place. This is the basis for further involvement activities. The national and transnational analysis compiled by all partners will not only serve for campaigns of public awareness (WP PM) but also to identify the stakeholders and end users. The following products will be achieved: Study (with identification of stakeholders and end users on national level as well as on transnational level.) Data base (comprising contact data and information on relevant stakeholders). On this basis the dissemination activities of the flood risk mapping methods and maps will take place. BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

5 Stakeholder consultation and capacity building A process will be started to involve stakeholders in the definition of content and information of risk maps for the different needs. Potential user groups will be asked to give input for the definition process. Regional workshops will be held to discuss the concept for the maps with the different groups. The result of the regional workshops will be communicated back to the map developers. A tool box for the involvement of and consultation with stakeholders will be applied. The process initiated by these activities will clarify the need for flood risk information of the involved groups. On the other hand, by selected training seminars initiated by the project partner either on national, regional or local level with relevant stakeholders the capacity building is promoted. In this context, to assure an area-wide public awareness the dissemination of flood risk maps via the internet is of great importance and a low-cost intensive measure. In addition, the active promotion will take place as by flyers and public regional meetings. The following products will be achieved: meetings, seminars and stakeholder workshops catalogues of demands of stakeholders to the maps (based on ExciMap-suggestions, here regional demands) capacity building in terms of harmonisation, data management and mapping website publishing flood risk maps additional promotion materials The end users (such as e.g. emergency planning, private end users, risk receptors etc.) of the flood risk information will be identified on transnational and national levels. The study and data base is used for integrating activities as workshops and demonstration projects. This is applied on national level for a better guidance and consultation process. Stakeholders will be given the opportunity to comment on: - the usability of the proposed flood risk maps - if their initial requests and needs have been considered and if not, what is still missing - the participation process itself. WP3: Data collection and management The main data sources for flood risk maps are digital terrain data, land use information, hydrological and hydraulic data and statistics for the damage assessment. Each of the data sets comprises a certain subset of data that is needed. Availability check and first quality check One of the first activities will be to set up a complete list of available data and to discover the conditions of access (rights, costs). If the data sets are accessible and fulfil the minimum requirements, test data sets should be acquired and several quality test performed as defined in WP 1. As the input data define very much the quality of the final product, the quality of the height accuracy needs to be better than 15cm. Linear structures like dikes, streets and drainage network need to be considered especially as they have high impacts on the simulation. Concerning the terrain data it is important to have reliable ground data for the validation process; also this additional data can be used for correction and optimization of the input data sets. Figure 2. Impact of accuracy of terrain data to results depending on the relief of the observed area BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

6 Concerning the hydraulic information the basic requirements are defined in WP1. The metadata and the positioning are of great importance; this includes: Defined height reference system within and between cross sections Coordinate for each value, if not directly available at least enough information to calculate them (river kilometre, start and end point of cross section, direction of profile) The land use information is relevant in two areas of interest: it is used to derive the roughness for the hydraulic simulation where it is the main factor influencing the flow velocity and it is the basis for reallocating the assets for the damage estimation. It is very important the linear structures (mainly roads) to be represented in the same position than in the terrain model; the settlements and industry extension need to be updated and the delimitation to be as accurate as possible. Having the first simulation results it is necessary to validate them. Therefore earth observation data from Charter / GMES rapid mapping campaigns might be used: Romania (May 05, April 06) Hungary (April 06) Bulgaria (April 06) further events might be available from EO archive data Also additional ground information (dike failures etc.), water level, discharge, soil maps etc. should be utilized for the validation process. Acquisition of additional and missing data For areas where no data are available, the data have to be acquired. Based on the results of WP1 the data need to be collected (including the bidding process), the collection process need to be supported (flight permissions for Lidar data collection and satellite high resolution imagines, provision of ground data) and the results checked (quality management) in general 1sq.km Lidar data is at least 100 Euro. Most of the data acquisition cost will need to be spend on collecting terrain data and batimetry information. For the risk maps also manpower and budgets need to be allocated for updating and validating land cover information (possibly by actual satellite interpretation) and gather statistical data for assets calculation. Concerning the assets and damage calculation needed for the risk maps different type of information is needed: Land use data Statistical data Damage functions or damage data to derive damage functions. All data should be at least at meso scale level, that is: Land use mapping unit of about 1 ha, classes like CORINE or more detailed, linear structures included statistical data on municipality level or more detailed The minimum data content for the statistical data is: geometry (extent) of statistical units information about distribution and structure (sex, age, social groups etc.) of population geomarketing data like spending capacity, type of private vehicles, association to social groups (optional, but extremely helpful) vehicles personal belongings (household) private buildings animal livestock net stock of fixed assets (agriculture, industry, services) inventories (agriculture, industry, services) As some of the data might not be available directly, they need to be derived from other information, this process needs to be adapted to the availability and quality of data and is usually very time consuming. Validation data from past events need to be obtained from various sources. These will be international organisation and companies (satellite maps) as well as local institutions or even private people (water level, damage information, pictures etc.). Also background layer information (either topographic maps or vector information like NAVTEQ data) for producing the different maps and publications need to be BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

7 acquired. Also the different permissions for publication need to be obtained. Also the updating of these data need to be considered. Set up of a common data base To have a common approach and access to all data (input and output), the data handling should be organized from a central point. Based on the definitions of WP1 all data are stored and made accessible to all partners depending on their needs. Before importing any result data into the data base quality checks need to be performed, also all relevant metadata need to be available. If some of the data are not distributable (copyrights etc.) at least the relevant data description, coverage of the data and some sample data should be available. A central data management is important, as in large projects with a lot of interaction between the partners it should be guaranteed that every partner works with the most actual data set. The main information about the available data should be made accessible through a secured web interface. Also the data themselves might be distributed via a secure web connection. Some important working steps for managing the data sets are: GIS-integration, import Provision of projection information Completion of meta data Comparison of different data sets Documentation of quality management and test performed Documentation of data set history WP4: Production of flood hazard and risk maps The production of flood hazard and risk maps is the main productive work step. Based on the guide lines provided by WP1 the simulation process will be started. Pre-processing of input data sets Input data are provided in different formats and projections. For vector data the conversation and integration process is comparatively simple. Still as handling different formats, height and projection systems the error rate is very high. So a high automation rate and a strict quality management are needed. At the end of the pre-processing all data for the total area should be completely compatible. Speaking about raster data the cells of different layers even need to have the same resolution and need to be congruent. In close cooperation to WP1 the pre-processing contains: Integration of different data sets Interpretation of data Optimization by additional data Integration of waterways, dikes and other structures relevant to hydraulics Hydraulic re-sampling (keeping relevant structures) Water level (1D) The aim is the production of an 1D-water level for the complete course of the Danube. This should either be done by using a uniform model or at least by coupling different models. The output will be a georeferenced water level for the different recurrence intervals. Flood hazard maps The flood hazard maps show the inundated areas as well as additional information like inundation depth, flow velocity and direction. In local maps also dynamic processes might be displayed. The input to the modelling process will be the water level, the terrain model and roughness figure 3. The simulation will use a hydrodynamic approach. The scenario conditions defined in WP1 need to be represented by the BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

8 simulation process. To reach the desired quality the calculation should be performed on a rasterresolution of at least 5m. Figure 3 Example of flood hazard map production routine The production process of flood hazard maps usually is an iterative process. During the quality check of the results (inundation maps, flow direction and velocity) errors in the input data, the scenario definitions or the modelling process can be found. Errors in any part will make it necessary to re-run the simulation. To reduce errors from the hydraulic interaction of the different parts of the Danube a splitting into different parts should be reduced as much as possible. Flood risk maps Flood risk maps show the potential losses (direct/indirect) related to a set of real or statistical events figure 4. The calculation is based on assets value per area (Euro/m²) which is different for each land use type and a set of damage functions (relation between water level and percentage of loss). The damage functions need to be adjusted for each type of land use data sets. Also an adaptation of the damage functions to the special conditions of a region needs to be made (Samuel P., S. Huntington, W. Allsop, J. Harp, 2008). BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

9 An important additional content of risk maps is the number of people affected or endangered by a certain type of event. Some vulnerable infrastructure (power plants, hospitals), cultural inheritage and hazardous industry are more important than can be displayed just by showing the value of assets (Holzhauer, M. Miller, A. Assmann, 2008). These facilities have to be integrated into the maps in an appropriate way. Figure 4 Example of flood risk map production Based on available material (past flood damages, local studies, similar studies on other rivers) plausibility checks and validation calculations need to be performed. The results need to be described. Cartography Maps Atlas production (1: ) is one of the main project outputs. Based on the common agreements (WP1) the simulation results and the background data have to be processed. Also adequate generalization methods need to be applied to the simulation results. Different layout drafts have to be produced and finally also test prints need to be performed to guarantee an adequate quality of the final printing. The technical communication to the print office needs to be established and quality standards and checks need to be performed. The cartographic layout needs to reach international mapping standards (like Rhine and Elbe atlas). The results of this WP are ready to print digital master copies. Additionally also master layouts for the other scales need to be produced. Routines to produce local maps will be established and distributed to the partners. Sample sets of these maps have to be produced. BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

10 Documentation The complete production process needs to be transparent to better understand and use the results. Basis for the documentation is the description of the agreed methods of WP1 technical details from the production process need to be added. WP5: Integration methods for flood risk management, land use planning, representative projects Exemplary implementation of the risk information into regional and / or local spatial planning; pilot cases have to be determined; for all or most countries at least one pilot area with involvement of a municipality. Discussion and specification of local planning demands on the risk maps; feed back to the harmonisation and mapping in the transnational context. Pilot projects In this working package the exemplary implementation of risk information and results of the risk mapping activities into land use plans, regional master plans and local development plans will be realized. The pilot areas and details of the pilot projects in detail still have to be named. It is possible that one pilot project focuses also on the implementation of risk maps into development plans of industrial areas, companies or sector plans like risk management plans for water supply (Stadiu F., MJ Adler, 2002). Guideline for the integration of risk information The results and experiences of the implemented pilot projects will be discussed and a guideline for the implementation of flood risk information into spatial planning ( Use of risk mapping in spatial planning ) in the Danube area will be defined. Together with the end users of risk maps like spatial planners the demands regarding the use and potential conflicts in flood risk areas should be evaluated. The overall concept will be discussed and a joint agreement on pilot projects for the integration of flood risk information into spatial planning documentation will be found. Outlook In the Danube Floodrisk Project, partners are national institutions and governmental ones. Taking into account the importance of the project for Flood Directive implementation and for ICPDR, there is a direct involvement of the national representatives, with a strong financial support. The co-financing part of the budgeted activities is shared by the Ministry of the Regional Development (and Public Houses in case of Romania) and the Ministries of Environment (in case of Romania, Austria, Germany). An important contribution can be made by an integrated spatial development policy both in preventing floods and in combating water shortages. These two phenomena are of differing political and territorial significance, they are nevertheless important in terms of spatial development. This project aims at the implementation of integrated strategies and actions for the prevention of flooding in river-catchment areas. Meteorological and hydrological monitoring and forecasting are indispensable in providing adequate support for activities aimed at preventing hydraulic risk and civil protection. Further activities necessary to reduce the risks that a flood develops, e.g. by improving sustainable best practices for agricultural and forestry management and land use in flood risk areas are implemented by the project. The project fits into the outlined objectives of the document Flood Risk Management, flood prevention, protection and mitigation (communication from the Commission COM(2004)472). FLOODRISK will serve as an example of designating flood prone areas in SEE regions. The transnational common methodologies, studies and plans of actions for the prevention of flooding will serve as spin offs for other SEE regions. The promoted examples of best practice and new concepts concerning water management, land uses and flood risk increasing prevention will be disseminated in other SEE regions. Finally the web based forecasting software tools will be easily used in the future by other stakeholders and BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May

11 institutes in the SEE region. FLOODRISK integrates different sectoral approaches within transnational cooperation between national, regional and local authorities achieving a higher degree of integration. In the past flood protection was largely adressed at a local level. FLOODRISK exhibits a transnational approach in flood prevention and mitigation through the participation of competent public authorities and leading research institutes from experienced EU member states, new EU member states and non EU member states in the SEE region. The different experiences of the project partners in the research and practical implemenation fields of flood prevention and mitigation will be carefully combined leading in a robust common methodological approach against floods, creating flood risk maps on a detailed DTM. There are two trends that point to an increase of flood risk: the magnitude and frequency of floods are likely to increase in the future as a result of climate change and there has been a marked increase in the number of people and economic assets located in flood risk zones. It is evident that the threat of repeated floods have severe consequences on human health, activities and material assets. Thus flood events have the potential to undermine regional cohesion and competitiveness. Anticipating the risks and consequently protecting society contributes positively in safeguarding the aforementioned terms. As already mentioned FLOODRISK's obejective is to promote the risk mapping methodology for flood prevention and mitigation, giving priority for the areas of important social and economic activity (tourism, agriculture, urban areas etc). The implementation of the project results is expected to minimise flood risks, contributing in safeguarding existing economic activities and employment and promoting local economies. In addition to economic and social damage, floods may have severe environmental impacts as for example when waste water treatment plants are inundated or when factories, holding quantities of chemicals are affected. Floods may also destroy wetland areas and reduce biodiversity. FLOODRISK is expected to lead to positive effects on the environment directly and indireclty. The proposed interventions will reduce flood risks and on the other hand the proposed sustainable practices in the field of agricultural, forestry management and land use will improve the environment per se. Acknowledgments The authors of this paper gratefully acknowledge the INTERREG III B SEE Programme funded by the EU through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF for the support of Danube Floodrisk project. Special thanks to our partners from different countries along the Danube river: Bernhard Mueller, Spira Yvonne (Austria), Kremena Gocheva (Bulgaria), Péter Bakonyi, (Hungary), Giuseppina Monacelli (Italy), Radu Drobot, Elisabeta Oprisan (Romania), Štefan Polhorský (Slovakia), Marina Babić Mladenović (Serbia) and to many others which are not listed here. References Holzhauer, M. Miller, A. Assmann, 2008 Risk-EOS flood risk analysis services for Europe Maidment, D., 2006: Handbook of Hydrology, Austin, TX. Samuel P., S. Huntington, W. Allsop, J. Harp, 2008 Flood risk Management Stadiu F., MJ Adler, 2002 Destructive Water- Abatment and Control od Water Disasters (DESWAT Project), Prevention and Fighting Hydrological Disasters, ISBN: WATERS, 2008: Science, Education and Design Strategy, WATer and Environmental Research Systems Network (Draft February 2008), WATERS Network Headquarters, ( last accessed March 29, BALWOIS Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May