HDM-4 Applications. Project Appraisal. Project Formulation. Maintenance Policy Optimization. Road Works Programming. Network Strategic Analysis

Transcription

1 HDM-4 Applications

2 HDM-4 Applications Project Appraisal Project Formulation Maintenance Policy Optimization Road Works Programming Network Strategic Analysis Standards & Policies 2

3 Project Appraisal Concerned with the economic justification of a project defined by other means. Project types New construction, upgrading Reconstruction, resealing Widening, lane addition Economic indicators Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 3

4 Paving a Gravel Road Current Policy (Without Project) - Gravel resurfacing when thickness of gravel is less than 50mm - Routine maintenance - Grading every 182 days Gravel Road with 300 AADT Proposed Project (With Project) - Upgrade the road to a paved standard - After upgrading, routine maintenance, patching 100% of the potholes, and resealing when damaged area > 20% Two Project Alternatives 4

5 Roughness Progression 20.0 Gravel Road with 300 AADT Roughness (IRI) Year Without Project With Project 5

6 Comparison of Alternatives Evaluation Period = 20 years Discount rate = % ---- Present Values Internal Construction & Road Net Rate of Length Maintenance User Total Present Return (km) Alt. Costs Costs Costs Value (%) 10.0 Without With Is the project economically justified? 6

7 Net Economic Benefits Stream of Economic Costs (M US$) Without Project With Project Road Road Total Road Road Total Net Discount Rate Sensitivity Year Agency User Society Agency User Society Benefits Discount Net Present Rate Value, NPV (%) (%) % % % % % % 0.75 Net % 0.58 Present % 0.43 Value % 0.29 at 12% % % % % % % % % Internal Rate of Present Value at 12% Disc Return Net Present Value at 12% (M US$)

8 Project Formulation Concerned with the economic comparison of project alternatives to better define the project. Compares many project alternatives, e.g. Surface Types Surface Thicknesses Geometric standards Timing of intervention Compares alternatives in terms of net benefits and agency costs (economic efficiency frontier graph) 8

9 Optimal Timing for Paving Gravel Road with 300 AADT - Regravel and grading every 182 days - Upgrade in Upgrade in Upgrade in Upgrade in 2009 Many Project Alternatives 9

10 Economic Efficiency Frontier Gravel Road with 300 AADT Upgrade in 2007 Net Present Value at 12% Upgrade in 2009 Upgrade in 2008 Upgrade in Grading every 182 days Present Value of Agency Costs at 12% Which is the optimal alternative? 10

11 Maintenance Policy Optimization Concerned with finding an optimal maintenance policy and funding for a given road class. User defines road classes in terms of condition and traffic A series of condition responsive road works are evaluated The alternative with highest NPV is identified along with the recurrent and capital resources needed to implement the alternative 11

12 Asphalt Road Maintenance A Paved Road in Fair Condition - Reconstruction when roughness > 8.0 IRI - 25 mm reseal when damaged area > 10% - 25 mm reseal when damaged area > 20% - 25 mm reseal when damaged area > 30% - 40 mm overlay when roughness > 3.0 IRI - 40 mm overlay when roughness > 4.0 IRI - 40 mm overlay when roughness > 5.0 IRI - 80 mm overlay when roughness > 3.0 IRI - 80 mm overlay when roughness > 4.0 IRI - 80 mm overlay when roughness > 5.0 IRI - All include routine maintenance 12 and patching 100% of potholes

13 Roughness Progression 9.0 Paved Road 1500 AADT/3.0 IRI Roughness (IRI) Year 13

14 Economic Efficiency Frontier Paved Road 1500 AADT/3.0 IRI Net Present Value at 12% mm at 5.0 IRI 25mm at 10% 25mm at 20% 25mm at 30% 40mm at 4.0 IRI 80mm at 5.0 IRI 40mm at 3.0 IRI 80mm at 4.0 IRI mm at 3.0 IRI Reconstruction at 8.0 IRI Present Value of Agency Costs at 12% Which is the optimal maintenance policy? 14

15 Road Works Programming Concerned with the preparation of single or multiyear road work and expenditure programmes under specified budget constraints. Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraint Annual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan 15

16 Procedure Use specified standards to screen network & identify candidate projects, e.g. road sections which exceed specified condition roads with inadequate capacity pavements which need strengthening upgrade pavements with high traffic volumes Determine maintenance or improvement options Specify budget limits & periods Optimise using selected objective Produce optimal list of projects for budget period 16

17 Evaluation of Road Sections Homogeneous Road Sections Good Condition Roads - Reseal 25 mm in Reseal 25 mm in Reseal 25 mm in Reseal 25 mm in 2009 Fair Condition Roads - Overlay 40 mm in Overlay 40 mm in Overlay 40 mm in Overlay 40 mm in Overlay 80 mm in Overlay 80 mm in Overlay 80 mm in Overlay 80 mm in Poor Condition Roads - Overlay 80 mm in Overlay 80 mm in Overlay 80 mm in Overlay 80 mm in Overlay 100 mm in Overlay 100 mm in Overlay 100 mm in Overlay 100 mm in 2009

18 Unconstrained Work Program 18

19 Constrained Work Program 19

20 Work Program Output Priority Road Length Province Type of Scheduled Cost Cumulative Rank Section (km) or District Road Work Year $m S$m 1 N Resealing N Overlay 40mm N Reconstruct R Widen 4 lane R Overlay 60mm : : : : : : : : 1 N Reconstruct R Overlay 40mm N Widen 4 lane : : : : : : : : 1 N Resealing N Overlay 60mm F Reconstruct : : : : : : : : 20

21 Network Strategy Analysis Concerned with the analysis of entire road networks to determine funding needs and/or to predict future performance under budget constraints Objectives: Determine budget allocations for road maintenance and improvement Prepare for work programmes Determine long term network performance Assess impact on road users 21

22 Strategic Planning Forecast scenarios of revenues & available budget Assess current condition of assets Forecast traffic demands (from road network plan) Evaluate impact of strategies on performance and costs - using predictive model Optimize strategies under alternative budget scenarios - maximize NPV for each scenario Determine multi-year program allocations & performance 22

23 Strategic Planning Approach Road Network Matrix of Road Classes A.C. G F P L M H Resource Constraints Program without Budgetary Constraints Optimal Program under Budgetary Constraints Optimization Module 23

24 Diagnostic of the Network Condition Roughness in 1998 < 3.5 IRI 28% > 5.0 IRI 64% 3.5 < IRI < 5.0 8% 24

25 Diagnostic of Road User Costs Typical Road User Costs (Rs/vehicle-km) Car Wagon Bus S. Truck M. Truck H. Truck Roughness (IRI) 25

26 Diagnostic of Agency Costs Typical Periodic Maintenance Costs 30 cm Gran. Base / 25 cm AC 30 cm Gran. Base / 20 cm AC 30 cm Gran. Base / 15 cm AC 25 cm Overlay Reconstruction 20 cm Overlay 15 cm Overlay 13 cm Overlay Structural Overlays 7.5 cm Overlay 5 cm Overlay 30 mm TST 25 mm DST Functional Overlays Functional Reseals Financial Costs (Million Rs/km) 26

27 Diagnostic of Road Classes Primary Network Good Fair Poor Very Poor < 3.5 IRI 3.5 < IRI < < IRI < 7.0 > 7.0 IRI < 2500 BI 2500 < BI < < BI < 5000 > 5000 BI Surface Traffic (ADT) <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% Total % Asphalt < % Concrete % % % > % Total % 46% 17% 9% 0% 5% 10% 0% 3% 8% 1% 0% 2% 72% 15% 11% 2% Secondary Network Good Fair Poor Very Poor < 3.5 IRI 3.5 < IRI < < IRI < 7.0 > 7.0 IRI < 2500 BI 2500 < BI < < BI < 5000 > 5000 BI Surface Traffic (ADT) <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% Total % Surface < % Treatment % % % > % Total % 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% 1% 0% 5% 17% 0% 5% 69% 1% 4% 21% 74% 27

28 Solution Catalog per Budget Level Primary Network Good Fair Poor < 3.5 IRI 3.5 < IRI < < IRI < 7.0 < 2500 BI 2500 < BI < < BI < 5000 Surface Traffic (ADT) <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% Asphalt < Concrete > Secondary Network Good Fair Poor < 3.5 IRI 3.5 < IRI < < IRI < 7.0 < 2500 BI 2500 < BI < < BI < 5000 Surface Traffic (ADT) <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% Surface < Treatment > Periodic Operations (Billion Rs) Net Present Value Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 B Rs M $

29 Consequences to Society 300 Society Net Benefits Present Value (Billion Rs) Periodic Expenditures (Billion Rs/year) 29

30 Consequences to the Network Scenario: 6 Billion Rs per year 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Poor Fair Good Avg. IRI Year 30 Network Condition (%) Average Roughness (IRI)

31 Consequences to the Agency Budget Scenarios (Billion Rs per year) Period: Years 7 to 20 Period: Years 1 to Periodic Expenditures per Period (Billion Rs.) 31

32 Consequences to the Users Network Road User Costs (Billion Rs) Savings: 152 Billion Rs 6 Billion Rs per Year Case Without Project Case Year 32

33 Support Definition of Budget Level Average Network Roughness (IRI) 8 7 Budget Scenarios (Rs B per year) Year 33

34 Support for Allocation of Resources Region North Maintenance Budget ($m) Primary Roads Secondary Roads Flexible Gravel Flexible Gravel East South West

35 Optimal Budget Requirements US $ m/year Development Improvement Periodic Routine

36 Support for Programming of Works Rough All Rut Total From To Length Width ness Cracks Depth Traffic Road Cost NPV NPV/ Link City City Type (km) (m) (IRI) (%) (mm) (ADT) Class Solution B Rs B Rs Cost 52 Peshawar Jamrud AC P3AZ Chichawat Sahiwal AC P3AZ Shahdara Muridke AC P5DX Khanewal Mian Channu AC P5DZ Hala Sakrand ST S5DZ Qazi AhmeMoro ST S5DZ Panu Aqil Ghotki ST S5DZ Daherki Ubaro ST S5DZ Ubaro Sadiq Abad ST S5DZ Moro Nowshero Fer ST S5DZ Rohri Panu Aqil ST S5DZ Ghotki Mir Pur Mathe ST S5DZ

37 Standards & Policies Concerned with specific studies designed to define rational technical standards and vehicle policies Road pricing road use costs (to define fuel levies) congestion charges weight-distance charges Vehicle regulations axle load limits energy consumption, vehicle emissions & noise Engineering Standards sustainable road network size pavement design and maintenance standards 37

38 Technical Standards 12 Net Present Value at 12% Traffic (ADT) What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving? 38

39 Vehicle Policies Average Agency Costs ($/km/yr) Non-vehicle-related Vehicle-related Loading-related How much road damage is caused by trucks? 39